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Crises, outbreaks, wars, mortal disease, are always foreseeable until
they strike. Until that moment, they are entirely predictable. Bayesian
inference can guess how probable it is you will die from cancer, heart
disease or a diptheria epidemic. When it hits, when the stage IV
diagnosis comes, when pain starts shooting down your left arm, when your
throat starts slowly suffocating you, it comes out of the blue.
We are about to receive a lesson in susceptibility. In the triptych of
epidemiology, susceptibility is the most terrifying. We don't know how
big the susceptible population is. Back in February, the number of
people susceptible to Sars-Cov-2, the virus producing the Covid-19
illness, was close to 7.8 billion. It might be closer to 7.5 billion.
According to recent testing carried out in France, Spain and the United
Kingdom, as little as 5 per cent of the population have been infected by
the plague. And that is in three of the worst hit states. This is why we
aren't just talking about a 'second peak' of infections, but repeated
waves of infection. There's a long way between five per cent and herd
immunity.
https://www.patreon.com/posts/relentless-37400375?utm_medium=post_notification_email
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