Re: [Marxism] [pen-l] Re: Brief Reflection on Trump?s Impeachment By Roberto Savio

2019-10-18 Thread Mark Lause via Marxism
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"Mainstream" American politics is always about what defines that
"mainstream."  The pundits and professional politicians tend to treat this
as a contest over the same set of voters.  It isn't.

To take a particularly dramatic example of this, the difference between the
Democratic landslide of 1964  and what the media dishonestly called an
"electoral landslide" for the Republicans in 1980 came down to who voted.
Studies that broke down the statistics indicated that the demographics
broke the same way in both elections, but that those groups favorable to
the Democrats didn't vote in 1980 in the numbers they had in 1964, while
groups inclined to the Republicans turned out in much larger proportions.
Some of the sharper (and more progressive Democrats) understand that the
road to victory leads through mobilizing those voters who are
understandably disengaged from this inbred quasi-masonic 18th century game.

For us, of course, the question is to have to bring the necessary social
and political weight to bear where it counts . . .. in the streets and in
the workplaces . . . and in the numbers to make it matter.

Just imagine what could have been happening over the last year if we had
the political savvy, independent sense, and organization to have brought
several hundred thousand demonstrators to Washington during the great tax
"reform"--or during those Kavenaugh hearings.  Or if we could have brought
to the capital a fraction of the legions of citizens disgusted with the
administration and the Democratic sluggishness in calling it to account.
The major features of Trump's agenda could have been checked--or, if they
had been, would have been generating mass, political disaffection and
radicalization.

And we'd have would have contributed sorely needed examples of how
sustained independent mass action can turn politics on its head--the most
important practical lessons that could have been passed on to young
radicals.

Isn't it a pity it didn't happen?

Cheers,
Mark L.
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Re: [Marxism] [pen-l] Re: Brief Reflection on Trump?s Impeachment By Roberto Savio

2019-10-18 Thread Michael Meeropol via Marxism
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I was on record beginning in 2017 as being totally opposed to impeachment
--- even up till relatively recently, I urged the House to impeach BARR and
the director of HOMELAND SECURITY over the real crimes the trump
administration was committing --- I argued that the DEMS should let the
Republicans impeach Trump if they got tired of him and our side (the
coalition that includes Dems)  should focus on exposing and opposing
POLICIES of the trump administration ---

But events have over-taken my skepticism and foot dragging --- I believe
that it is essential that the left be as involved as possible in the fight
over impeachment -- and I totally disagree with Ralph's recent post arguing
that Dems will not vote to impeach because once they vote the House becomes
irrelevant --

This MIGHT be true if the Senate does not hold a "real" trial-- but if the
Senate holds a real trial where House managers get to present their case on
national TV in the Senate trial this will give the majority of people WHO
ARE ALREADY INFAVOR OF IMPEACHMENT and REMOVAL FROM OFFICE even without
knowing all the facts REAL INFORMATION to chew on  I don't think we can
underestimate the value of giving REAL ammunition about Trump's criminality
-- self-dealing -- etc. to millions of people in this country who will be
arguing with friends, neightbors and family about the 2020 election --- If
Ralph is right that an acquittal in the Senate will allow trump to take a
"victory" lap IMAGINE the nature of the victory lap if the House fails to
impeach --- ("THE DISHONEST DEMOCRATS LED BY CRAZY NANCY couldn't even come
up with to VOTE against me even though they had a majority!" --- and trump
would be right!! ) --- at least a failure to convict in the SENATE would be
supportive of the line that DEMS are pushing that the republicans put party
before patriotism  and EITHER the purple state Republicans will have a
good chance of losing in the general if they vote with Trump OR the few
Republican votes will make it difficult for trump and his enablers to
attack the impeachment effort as purely partisan ...

This will be especially true if Trump's line of defense is the same as
Clinton's -- YES, I did it but it's no big deal --- having DENIED he did it
forever and a day, it will make his new line of defense hard to -- -well
--- defend.

OF COURSE what I am writing could be wishful thinking but this is how I've
changed my position -- just in the last couple of months ---

On Fri, Oct 18, 2019 at 1:19 AM Bill Barclay 
wrote:

> I am skeptical of this cynical analysis.  But time will tell.
>
> Bill Barclay
>
>
> On Thursday, October 17, 2019, 09:41:12 PM PDT, Ralph Johansen <
> mdriscol...@charter.net> wrote:
>
>
> Opinion: Don’t Be Surprised If Trump Is Never Impeached
> David Marcus - The Federalist - Thursday, October 17, 2019
>
> Yesterday, House Speaker Nancy Pelosi announced that the House of
> Representatives would not move forward with a vote on impeachment any time
> soon. The statement comes as a month of pressure has built up behind
> efforts to unseat the president over a phone call with the Ukrainian
> president. While Democrats insist, contrary to precedent, that they do not
> need to hold a vote, their unwillingness to hold one may show the
> impeachment train is skidding off the tracks.
>
> In the giddy early days of the “impeachment investigation” over Ukraine,
> Democrats saw the polls move in their direction. But those polls have now
> stabilized and in some cases crept back against impeachment. Even at the
> peak, impeaching and removing the president was only popular among those
> who already opposed the president.
>
> So as the groundswell subsides, could Democrats really reverse course and
> abandon an impeachment that just last week seemed imminent? Surprisingly,
> yes, they could.
>
> The central thing to consider here is that impeachment is a political, not
> a legal, process. Despite their insistence that there are plenty of reasons
> to impeach Trump, Democrats have yet to do so. Why not? It seems clear that
> they do not believe they have sufficient political support in the country
> for the move. Not only do they risk infuriating Trump’s base, there are
> also many independent voters who seem to have little interest in this
> process.
>
> Along with this, consider that when and if the House Democrats ever
> actually hold a vote on impeachment, which could leave incumbents in purple
> seats vulnerable, the ball will move into the Senate’s court and Pelosi and
> the House will have no more control over it. That’s a very big deal,
> because from the day they took over the House the Democrats have been able
> 

Re: [Marxism] [pen-l] Re: Brief Reflection on Trump?s Impeachment By Roberto Savio

2019-10-17 Thread Ralph Johansen via Marxism

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Opinion: Don’t Be Surprised If Trump Is Never Impeached
David Marcus - The Federalist - Thursday, October 17, 2019

Yesterday, House Speaker Nancy Pelosi announced that the House of 
Representatives would not move forward with a vote on impeachment any 
time soon. The statement comes as a month of pressure has built up 
behind efforts to unseat the president over a phone call with the 
Ukrainian president. While Democrats insist, contrary to precedent, that 
they do not need to hold a vote, their unwillingness to hold one may 
show the impeachment train is skidding off the tracks.


In the giddy early days of the “impeachment investigation” over Ukraine, 
Democrats saw the polls move in their direction. But those polls have 
now stabilized and in some cases crept back against impeachment. Even at 
the peak, impeaching and removing the president was only popular among 
those who already opposed the president.


So as the groundswell subsides, could Democrats really reverse course 
and abandon an impeachment that just last week seemed imminent? 
Surprisingly, yes, they could.


The central thing to consider here is that impeachment is a political, 
not a legal, process. Despite their insistence that there are plenty of 
reasons to impeach Trump, Democrats have yet to do so. Why not? It seems 
clear that they do not believe they have sufficient political support in 
the country for the move. Not only do they risk infuriating Trump’s 
base, there are also many independent voters who seem to have little 
interest in this process.


Along with this, consider that when and if the House Democrats ever 
actually hold a vote on impeachment, which could leave incumbents in 
purple seats vulnerable, the ball will move into the Senate’s court and 
Pelosi and the House will have no more control over it. That’s a very 
big deal, because from the day they took over the House the Democrats 
have been able to frustrate Trump with impeachment talk any time they 
want to step on his initiatives or triumphs. Once a vote is held, that 
is over.


Put simply, the build up to impeachment is much more politically 
valuable to Democrats than impeachment itself. An actual vote to impeach 
Trump puts the story out of their hands and into Senate Majority Leader 
Mitch McConnell’s. He could choose, like a cat playing with a soon-dead 
mouse, to drag the inevitable acquittal of Trump out as long as he 
wants. Meanwhile, the entire Democratic Party, including its eventual 
nominee for president, will be demanding a Senate conviction that won’t 
happen.


Instead, Senate Republicans and Trump himself would use the Senate trial 
as an opportunity to prove that this has all been a witch-hunt. They 
would argue that, after the special counsel investigation, once promised 
to be Trump’s Waterloo, failed, the floundering Party of Jefferson and 
Jackson found a second-rate scandal to hang impeachment. Yet it isn’t 
any kind of crime or misdemeanor, high or otherwise.


An eventual Trump victory in a Senate trial, whenever it comes, perhaps 
leading into his convention for example, will be used by the president 
to proclaim total exoneration. “Not guilty!” he will insist. “Proof of 
the witch hunt!” He'd take victory laps that would put Mario Andretti to 
shame. And what can the House Democrats say when that happens? That they 
knew it would happen? That it was inevitable with a GOP majority in the 
Senate? Well, if so, why did they engage in this farce to begin with?


No. Today the inevitable is starting to seem far less likely. The pros 
of formally impeaching the president are a molehill next the mountain of 
cons. If they finish their process, impeach, and yield to the Senate, 
they become irrelevant. Their constant yammering about wrongdoing turns 
into a legal process where facts will be demanded and the president will 
walk free.


Anyone paying attention knows this is what Pelosi has feared from day 
one, and with good reason. Her far-left caucus has been goading her, as 
has the president, into an informal impeachment, and she clearly still 
does not want it. She is wise not to.


There is one more issue here: the media. Won’t the leftist press be 
outraged if once again the House Democrats demur on impeachment? No, 
they won’t. As always, they will call the move brave and wise, and laud 
Pelosi for keeping the House the narrator of the White House story with 
forever investigations instead of handing that story to the Senate. 
Nothing ventured, something gained, the stories will say.


The bottom line is this. Once the gavel falls on an actual impeachment, 
the House, the only chamber the Democrats hold, becomes 

Re: [Marxism] [pen-l] Re: Brief Reflection on Trump?s Impeachment By Roberto Savio

2019-10-15 Thread Ralph Johansen via Marxism

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It is soon before the fact. It's more like reading tea leaves at this 
premature point. But just for the sake of argument, I recall that Trump 
was down and out in polls assessing the popular vote last time around, 
but they had it wrong. 'Class dynamics' did not prevail over media and 
electoral savvy, and he has part of the ruling class, at least and 
possibly a preponderance, going along with him, especially if he shows 
promise of leading the Republicans into majorities in Congress. Without 
some countering crisis, always. With that in mind and no alternative 
strong candidate in the wings for them, with their ability to twist 
rules and procedure, McConnell, Graham and House Republican counterparts 
may well be effective in shutting off and damping criticism as partisan 
and distorted. The Democratic-led House placing disproportionate 
emphasis on Ukraine and China, or maybe even finances and emoluments 
seems like a loser for a 2/3 majority to impeach, and so what else? No 
prospects for 29th amendment. Proof of incompetence to voter and 
Senate-majority satisfaction? Pence as alternative? Rock and a hard place.


And given his demonstrated capacity to manipulate and virtually command 
a generally hostile msm, the blowback and his declaration of victory and 
cleanliness with an unsuccessful attempt to impeach him has to be factored.


Moreover, as to his 'demented' condition, that may be but with all his 
practice on his tv show he plays on that quality of sarcastic, outraged, 
zany, off-the-prompter unpredictability quite effectively. Watch that 
speech in Minneapolis https://tinyurl.com/yxvc4ncj; it's the first time 
I have watched all the way through a Trump rally. There's a woman in 
about the third row on his left, looks like just out of a tanning 
parlor. She also looks as though she might be on something 
mind-altering. But she epitomizes to me a Trump supporter: going ape at 
his every exaggerated, distorted, deflecting or untruthful phrase, 
without a critical or reflective cell in her brain. I fear, when the 
frenzy rises near election time, in a severely divided, disaffected 
polity, with an unspoken background elements of class, xenophobia, 
resentment at elitism and lost status driving it, that this is an 
amplifying trend. We know the history of authoritarian rule and the 
irrational and the present course and we should not ignore it.


And the uncertain disarray among the discredited Democrats - they're not 
like the Republicans last time, set to field a runaway candidate, not 
one with appeal to enough of their base, at any rate, out of a pack 
where the leaders, equally divided in preference, are 71, 78 and 79 
(historically, according to Nate Silver, 55 is the median age for 
presidents) with heart problems suddenly on the minds of Democratic 
votersand never mind Trump at 73 with his domination of candidacy and 
his conservative, older, more committed constituency.


I don't have to present as a Cassandra to conclude that we're in dire, 
dangerous straits, regardless of the outcome of all of this, given the 
larger picture and all that is coming at us - and the absence of 
visible, viable alternatives. So what of that?


https://www.other-news.info/2019/10/brief-reflection-on-trumps-impeachment/


On 10/14/2019 8:30 PM, Michael Meeropol wrote:
Some people are worried that the promise of a civil war may become a 
reality --- the democratic majority (especially if the election is 
close in some key states) will have to rely on the "discipline" of the 
police forces and the military -- especially the hierarchy --- Granted 
the military hierarchy will stick with the ruling class -- but there 
could be SERIOUS civil disorders by the "militias" and who knows where 
the local police forces will be -- (throw in ICE agents who are BIG 
supporters of Trump as well as the military folks who have been 
brainwashed) --- I do believe that unless there is very successful 
voter suppression, that the Dems will pull it out -- BUT -- it will 
depend on the Obama coalition coming out to vote ---



:I do not agree with this article. I don’t think it’s a good analysis. 
Firstof all, the author completely fails to understand what’s really 
at work inthese proceedings, which is another way of saying he ignores 
the classdynamics. In my opinion, the mainstream of the capitalist 
class has finallydecided that it cannot allow a demented (seriously) 
person to continue hisdrive for one man rule unchecked. In his Ukraine 
actions, Trump showed thathe was going to do whatever it took to 
continue down that path for anotherfour years. His Syria blunder 
“worse than a crime - a mistake”