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Not to mention Pedro's prediction of slowing economic growth from energy
shortages. Like so many (remember the late Mark Jones on this list?), there was
a tendency to view resource (and particularly oil) exploitation as a technical
question of physical availability (that was Hubbert's error) without factoring
in the role of the capitalist profit drive in finding new ways to develop new
sources (e.g. fracking, which now makes the US the largest oil producer
globally, or close to it). Oil production continues to increase, as does the use
of fossil-fuel energy. That's capitalism...
-Original Message-
From: Marxism [mailto:marxism-boun...@lists.csbs.utah.edu] On Behalf Of Patrick
Bond via Marxism
Sent: Thursday, June 27, 2019 12:13 PM
To: rfid...@ncf.ca
Subject: Re: [Marxism] Camejo and Shawki
POSTING RULES & NOTES
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On 2019/06/27 3:58 PM, Louis Proyect via Marxism wrote:
>
> I'm working on an article about the ex-ISO right now and accessed this
> article I wrote in 2004 for background.
>
> http://www.columbia.edu/~lnp3/mydocs/american_left/CamejoShawki.htm
> _
On Camejo: "He pointed to the likelihood that the United States has
either reached the Hibbert curve or will soon do so. This means that the
rate of economic growth will be slowed by energy shortages. We are also
facing a situation in which home ownership has become a kind of savings
plan for most working people, as house values increase as a result of
cheap mortgage rates induced by low inflation rates. When rising energy
costs leads to an inflationary spike, home values will begin to sharply
decrease. The consequence might be massive consumer default and bankruptcy."
This is a line of argument I'm not too familiar with, but it's plausible
since the oil price hit $145/barrel in 2008 (before crashing to $35
within a few months). But I thought the general correlation of inflation
to real estate was opposite to what's posited below (i.e., inflationary
spikes allow real estate to hold value better than other commodity
forms). Also, my sense of 2007-08 mortgage defaults in the U.S. was much
more based upon the Exploding Adjustable Rate Mortgage phenomenon (a
low-interest baiting, then switching to high rates after a few years),
which especially hit African American neighborhoods, as well as those
who were engaged in real estate flips coming up to the top of the
Kuznets property cycle in particular locales in the U.S. Southwest,
Florida and a few vulnerable cities. But I stand to be corrected. Has
anyone revisited this?
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