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In the long run, Assad will be forced to adapt his policies to suit these newly empowered militia commanders if he is to retain their support. Measures have already been taken to prevent splits and dissent. The creation of the NDF was one such step, as it sought to reinstitutionalize a chaotic militia movement and connect it more firmly to the central government. And while the NDF may be Iranian-backed and perhaps under partial Iranian influence, the regime has made sure to keep some sort of central command node in Damascus and to keep key militia groups under close control (Bashar’s cousin Hilal al-Assad led the Latakia branch of the NDF until his death in March 2014). Additionally, as described by Carnegie’s Kheder Kheddour, the government has set up a number of economic and social institutions to enmesh civilian militia fighters and their families in the state.
But concessions will cut closer to the bone as Assad’s economy crumbles. When there is no more money to share, he will have to share power. And the more the militias are integrated within the state, the more the state itself comes under the sway of the communities and interests represented by them—violent, parochial, often sectarian or tribal, and sometimes criminal.
Never was this problem more clearly illustrated than in December 2014, when Assad decreed that 50 percent of all state jobs must henceforth be reserved for the families of “martyrs” from the security forces and militias. As a way of ensuring the loyalty of the regime’s most important constituency, it makes perfect sense. But it also shows that Assad is giving up on the reintegration of rebel-held Syria into the state apparatus. Thus entrenching himself among the militias and what remains of his army, he has precious little left to offer anyone else—no carrot, only stick.
full: http://carnegieendowment.org/syriaincrisis/?fa=59215 _________________________________________________________ Full posting guidelines at: http://www.marxmail.org/sub.htm Set your options at: http://lists.csbs.utah.edu/options/marxism/archive%40mail-archive.com
