Re: [Marxism] New Study claims that Fatality Rate in Wuhan was much lower
POSTING RULES & NOTES #1 YOU MUST clip all extraneous text when replying to a message. #2 This mail-list, like most, is publicly & permanently archived. #3 Subscribe and post under an alias if #2 is a concern. * Dear comrade, thanks for thoughtful reply (as it is always even if I do not always agree with your arguments). Obviously my medical knowledge is minimal – in particular compared with these scientists. I just can reproduce what they – respectively the editors of the scientific journal which published this study – give as the conclusion of their study: “As of 29 February 2020 there were 79,394 confirmed cases and 2,838 deaths from COVID-19 in mainland China. Of these, 48,557 cases and 2,169 deaths occurred in the epicenter, Wuhan. A key public health priority during the emergence of a novel pathogen is estimating clinical severity, which requires properly adjusting for the case ascertainment rate and the delay between symptoms onset and death. Using public and published information, we estimate that the overall symptomatic case fatality risk (the probability of dying after developing symptoms) of COVID-19 in Wuhan was 1.4% (0.9–2.1%), which is substantially lower than both the corresponding crude or naïve confirmed case fatality risk (2,169/48,557 = 4.5%) and the approximator1 of deaths/ deaths + recoveries (2,169/2,169 + 17,572 = 11%) as of 29 February 2020. Compared to those aged 30–59 years, those aged below 30 and above 59 years were 0.6 (0.3–1.1) and 5.1 (4.2–6.1) times more likely to die after developing symptoms. The risk of symptomatic infection increased with age (for example, at ~4% per year among adults aged 30–60 years).“ You are of course right to point out that the Modi government is terrorizing the Kashmir people with and without COVID-19. I just wanted to point out that India, Algeria and Chile are actual and very obvious examples where the regimes utilize COVID-19 in order to paralyze and attack ongoing mass movements. Do people think that these are the only governments in the world who have political considerations in utilizing COVID-19?! Could it not be the case that the governments in the imperialist states are doing the same? Not all of them are clowns and idiots like Trump and Johnson. Some are pretty smart and capable representatives of the “ideal total capitalist”! (like Xi, Macron and Merkel) Am 19.03.2020 um 20:14 schrieb hari kumar via Marxism: POSTING RULES & NOTES #1 YOU MUST clip all extraneous text when replying to a message. #2 This mail-list, like most, is publicly & permanently archived. #3 Subscribe and post under an alias if #2 is a concern. * So sorry - 'point 3(i) should not read the word 'mythology' - but 'METHODOLOGY.." i) This is modelling data. Yes this METHODOLOGY does have a role - but it then critically depends upon what assumptions and what inputs you enable to enter the model. And actually for the most part, the authors are very humble about it (see my point iii) below. " I blame Apple's automatisms - not any latent bias on this particular point.. H On Thu, Mar 19, 2020 at 3:06 PM hari kumar wrote: re: Message: 11 Date: Thu, 19 Mar 2020 16:03:08 +0100 From: RKOB To: Activists and scholars in Marxist tradition Subject: [Marxism] New Study claims that Fatality Rate in Wuhan was much lower Message-ID: <8d6064fc-2929-18c8-22ee-2a72d9a04...@rkob.net> Content-Type: text/plain; charset=utf-8; format=flowed One of my comrades with medical background drew my attention to an interesting new study from Chinese scientists. It says that the fatality rate of COVID-19 in Wuhan has been 1.4%, i.e. substantially lower than initially reported (4.5%) https://www.nature.com/articles/s41591-020-0822-7 Dear Michael: 1) The overtly fascist Modi government has long attacked even any semblance of opposition in Kashmir. It does not need the COVID 19 excuse; and nor does the Kashmiri opposition, get fooled by pretences this has anything to do with COVID-19. But you have written a lot on this matter - which broadly I agree with - so you know this. 2) Algeria - like Chile - yes there may be national variations. 3) Your article linked to below is of marked interest. It is a letter - which does go through a peer review process, but in my experience is usually not quite as 'sharp'. Nonetheless, thank you for alerting us to this. There are a couple of things about this that, however, warrant a close reading. It does not show what superficially may be thought to show: " fatality rate was much lower in Wuhan". i) This is modelling data. Yes this mythology does have a ro
Re: [Marxism] New Study claims that Fatality Rate in Wuhan was much lower
POSTING RULES & NOTES #1 YOU MUST clip all extraneous text when replying to a message. #2 This mail-list, like most, is publicly & permanently archived. #3 Subscribe and post under an alias if #2 is a concern. * re: Message: 11 Date: Thu, 19 Mar 2020 16:03:08 +0100 From: RKOB To: Activists and scholars in Marxist tradition Subject: [Marxism] New Study claims that Fatality Rate in Wuhan was much lower Message-ID: <8d6064fc-2929-18c8-22ee-2a72d9a04...@rkob.net> Content-Type: text/plain; charset=utf-8; format=flowed One of my comrades with medical background drew my attention to an interesting new study from Chinese scientists. It says that the fatality rate of COVID-19 in Wuhan has been 1.4%, i.e. substantially lower than initially reported (4.5%) https://www.nature.com/articles/s41591-020-0822-7 Dear Michael: 1) The overtly fascist Modi government has long attacked even any semblance of opposition in Kashmir. It does not need the COVID 19 excuse; and nor does the Kashmiri opposition, get fooled by pretences this has anything to do with COVID-19. But you have written a lot on this matter - which broadly I agree with - so you know this. 2) Algeria - like Chile - yes there may be national variations. 3) Your article linked to below is of marked interest. It is a letter - which does go through a peer review process, but in my experience is usually not quite as 'sharp'. Nonetheless, thank you for alerting us to this. There are a couple of things about this that, however, warrant a close reading. It does not show what superficially may be thought to show: " fatality rate was much lower in Wuhan". i) This is modelling data. Yes this mythology does have a role - but it then critically depends upon what assumptions and what inputs you enable to enter the model. And actually for the most part, the authors are very humble about it (see my point iii) below. ii) One thing they do not really come clean about is the following issue. As I read it, this is a paper that *only* uses data of people who flew out of Wuhan - and were not part of the Wuhan susceptible pool for the final data-set. So if I understand it right, it sets them up as a 'captive' population. Thus - you would I assume - want this population to have the advantage of 100% testing - to put that set of data into the modelling. But is this what happened? Actually it is buried away, in 'supplementary Tables' - that it is not what happened. it is not known what proportion of those passengers flown out were indeed tested: "See: *Supplementary Tables 1–9. ** Japan, Singapore, South Korea, Germany, Belgium and Malaysia had tested all the passengers and a few pre-symptomatic or asymptomatic cases were confirmed. For other countries, it is unknown whether they had tested all the passengers or only those showing symptoms. “ Supplementary Table 3. [See: Supplementary Information *- https://static- <https://static-> content.springer.com/esm/art%3A10.1038%2Fs41591-020-0822- <http://content.springer.com/esm/art%3A10.1038%2Fs41591-020-0822-> 7/MediaObjects/41591_2020_822_MOESM1_ESM.pdf * iii) To avid this becoming an overlong mail, I only then ask that the final section of the letter be looked at carefully. They themselves acknowledge many limitations, which is why I said they were humble about this finding. They say this: "Several important caveats are worth mentioning, as follows. First, and most importantly, our modeled estimates have necessarily relied on numerous strong assumptions". As I had said in my article, there is a lot we (collectively) and more especially I (the narrow me) still do not know. We need to be cautious. And once more I am not an ID specialist. I know a reasonable amount of trail-based epidemiology, but the epidemiology involved in ID gets more and more distinct. In solidarity, Hari Kumar PS: Louis: I am sorry if this again turns out to be too narrowly spaced. I tried to obey your injunctions to format better. If still poorly formatted, I will again try something different. > > > -- > Revolution?r-Kommunistische Organisation BEFREIUNG > (?sterreichische Sektion der RCIT, www.thecommunists.net) > www.rkob.net > ak...@rkob.net > Tel./SMS/WhatsApp/Telegram: +43-650-4068314 > > > > -- > Diese E-Mail wurde von Avast Antivirus-Software auf Viren gepr?ft. > https://www.avast.com/antivirus > > > -- > > Subject: Digest Footer > > _ > Full posting guidelines at: http://www.marxmail.org/sub.htm > To
Re: [Marxism] New Study claims that Fatality Rate in Wuhan was much lower
POSTING RULES & NOTES #1 YOU MUST clip all extraneous text when replying to a message. #2 This mail-list, like most, is publicly & permanently archived. #3 Subscribe and post under an alias if #2 is a concern. * So sorry - 'point 3(i) should not read the word 'mythology' - but 'METHODOLOGY.." i) This is modelling data. Yes this METHODOLOGY does have a role - but it then critically depends upon what assumptions and what inputs you enable to enter the model. And actually for the most part, the authors are very humble about it (see my point iii) below. " I blame Apple's automatisms - not any latent bias on this particular point.. H On Thu, Mar 19, 2020 at 3:06 PM hari kumar wrote: > re: Message: 11 > Date: Thu, 19 Mar 2020 16:03:08 +0100 > From: RKOB > To: Activists and scholars in Marxist tradition > > Subject: [Marxism] New Study claims that Fatality Rate in Wuhan was > much lower > Message-ID: <8d6064fc-2929-18c8-22ee-2a72d9a04...@rkob.net> > Content-Type: text/plain; charset=utf-8; format=flowed > > One of my comrades with medical background drew my attention to an > interesting new study from Chinese scientists. It says that the fatality > rate of COVID-19 in Wuhan has been 1.4%, i.e. substantially lower than > initially reported (4.5%) > > https://www.nature.com/articles/s41591-020-0822-7 > > Dear Michael: > > 1) The overtly fascist Modi government has long attacked even any > semblance of opposition in Kashmir. It does not need the COVID 19 excuse; > and nor does the Kashmiri opposition, get fooled by pretences this has > anything to do with COVID-19. But you have written a lot on this matter - > which broadly I agree with - so you know this. > > 2) Algeria - like Chile - yes there may be national variations. > > 3) Your article linked to below is of marked interest. It is a letter - > which does go through a peer review process, but in my experience is > usually not quite as 'sharp'. > Nonetheless, thank you for alerting us to this. > There are a couple of things about this that, however, warrant a close > reading. It does not show what superficially may be thought to show: " > fatality rate was much lower in Wuhan". > > i) This is modelling data. Yes this mythology does have a role - but it > then critically depends upon what assumptions and what inputs you enable to > enter the model. And actually for the most part, the authors are very > humble about it (see my point iii) below. > > ii) One thing they do not really come clean about is the following issue. >As I read it, this is > a paper that *only* uses data of people who flew out of Wuhan - and > were not part of the Wuhan susceptible pool for the final data-set. So if I > understand it right, it sets them up as a 'captive' population. Thus - > you would I assume - want this population to have the advantage of 100% > testing - to put that set of data into the modelling. But is this what > happened? Actually it is buried away, in 'supplementary Tables' - that it > is not what happened. it is not known what proportion of those passengers > flown out were indeed tested: > > "See: *Supplementary Tables 1–9. ** Japan, Singapore, South Korea, > Germany, Belgium and Malaysia had tested all the passengers and a few > pre-symptomatic or asymptomatic cases were confirmed. For other countries, > it is unknown whether they had tested all the passengers or only those > showing symptoms. “ Supplementary Table 3. [See: Supplementary > Information *- https://static- <https://static-> > content.springer.com/esm/art%3A10.1038%2Fs41591-020-0822- > <http://content.springer.com/esm/art%3A10.1038%2Fs41591-020-0822-> > 7/MediaObjects/41591_2020_822_MOESM1_ESM.pdf * > > iii) To avid this becoming an overlong mail, I only then ask that the > final section of the letter be looked at carefully. They themselves > acknowledge many limitations, which is why I said they were humble about > this finding. They say this: "Several important caveats are worth > mentioning, as follows. First, and most importantly, our modeled estimates > have necessarily relied on numerous strong assumptions". > > As I had said in my article, there is a lot we (collectively) and > more especially I (the narrow me) still do not know. We need to > be cautious. And once more I am not an ID specialist. I know a reasonable > amount of trail-based epidemiology, but the epidemiology involved in > ID gets more and more distinct. &g
[Marxism] New Study claims that Fatality Rate in Wuhan was much lower
POSTING RULES & NOTES #1 YOU MUST clip all extraneous text when replying to a message. #2 This mail-list, like most, is publicly & permanently archived. #3 Subscribe and post under an alias if #2 is a concern. * One of my comrades with medical background drew my attention to an interesting new study from Chinese scientists. It says that the fatality rate of COVID-19 in Wuhan has been 1.4%, i.e. substantially lower than initially reported (4.5%) https://www.nature.com/articles/s41591-020-0822-7 -- Revolutionär-Kommunistische Organisation BEFREIUNG (Österreichische Sektion der RCIT, www.thecommunists.net) www.rkob.net ak...@rkob.net Tel./SMS/WhatsApp/Telegram: +43-650-4068314 -- Diese E-Mail wurde von Avast Antivirus-Software auf Viren geprüft. https://www.avast.com/antivirus _ Full posting guidelines at: http://www.marxmail.org/sub.htm Set your options at: https://lists.csbs.utah.edu/options/marxism/archive%40mail-archive.com