Re: [Marxism] Reuters: Gulf May Arm Rebels Now that Truce is Dead - U.S. Officials

[mkaradjis . via Marxism]

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"Note that the article cited has no actual news about the Gulf states
arming anybody." Yes, and even more, there was even less actual news
about the US supporting such a move if it did take place. On the
contrary, it said the current situation raises "the possibility that
Gulf allies or Turkey will **no longer continue to follow the U.S.
lead** or will turn a blind eye to wealthy individuals looking to
supply MANPADS to opposition groups." And Toner from State Department
is quoted as explicitly opposing any such move by the Gulf or Turkey.

Obviously I hope that Saudi Arabia, Qatar and Turkey immediately tell
the US to shove off, and send hundreds of manpads urgently to the FSA,
north and south. But I won't be holding my breath. In the north, the
Turkish creation of a safe zone is actually predicated upon holding
the rebel groups there *back* from confronting Assad. Note that
Turkey, despite the talk, has held the rebels back from taking al-Bab,
which they must take in order to confront the regime from the back in
Aleppo. So Clinton can have her NFZ on the cheap in the Turkish zone;
because Erdogan has his agreement with Assad via Putin and Iran for no
action, so Assad/Russia won't bomb there. Just genocide Aleppo. In the
south, apart from the fact that the Saudis are distracted by their own
bombing of Yemen, the they have been pushed back on the southern file
by the alliance US-Jordan-UAE, essentially a pro-Assad alliance that
has forced the FSA Southern Front to stop fighting the regime (under
the "ceasefire" rubric) while providing arms only any time they fight
ISIS.

In other words, even if the US got right out and thereby stopped
blocking others delivering manpads, I'm still not confident that
either Saudis or Turkey would. But as the article suggests, they may
turn a blind eye to others doing so. What is so extraordinary about
the US dedication to preventing the rebels being armed against the 5
years of aerial slaughter is that the CIA in Jordan and Turkey has
gone out of its way to stop the FSA getting manpads even from the
black market. If the CIA was forced out of there, it is likely that
the local states might either turn a blind eye, or at least be less
effective at prevention.

On Wed, Sep 28, 2016 at 6:28 AM, Mike Sola via Marxism
 wrote:
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>
> Note that the article cited has no actual news about the Gulf states arming
> anybody:
>
> "has heightened the possibility that Gulf states might arm Syrian rebels"
> "Gulf Arab states or Turkey could step up arms supplies to rebel factions"
> "the possibility that Gulf allies or Turkey will no longer continue to
> follow the U.S. lead"
>
> I wouldn't get excited about this yet.
> --
>>
>> http://mobile.reuters.com/article/idUSKCN11W2NN
>>
>>
>
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Re: [Marxism] Reuters: Gulf May Arm Rebels Now that Truce is Dead - U.S. Officials

[Mike Sola via Marxism]

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Note that the article cited has no actual news about the Gulf states arming 
anybody:

"has heightened the possibility that Gulf states might arm Syrian rebels"
"Gulf Arab states or Turkey could step up arms supplies to rebel factions"
"the possibility that Gulf allies or Turkey will no longer continue to follow the 
U.S. lead"

I wouldn't get excited about this yet.
--

http://mobile.reuters.com/article/idUSKCN11W2NN




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Re: [Marxism] Reuters: Gulf May Arm Rebels Now that Truce is Dead - U.S. Officials

[Mike Sola via Marxism]

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Note that the article cited has no actual news about the Gulf states arming 
anybody:

"has heightened the possibility that Gulf states might arm Syrian rebels"
"Gulf Arab states or Turkey could step up arms supplies to rebel factions"
"the possibility that Gulf allies or Turkey will no longer continue to follow the 
U.S. lead"

I wouldn't get excited about this yet.

http://mobile.reuters.com/article/idUSKCN11W2NN



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Re: [Marxism] Reuters: Gulf May Arm Rebels Now that Truce is Dead - U.S. Officials

[Andrew Pollack via Marxism]

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Useful post, thanks.
And I think you're right in your speculation.

On Tue, Sep 27, 2016 at 12:33 PM, Syed Ephraim Hussain via Marxism <
marxism@lists.csbs.utah.edu> wrote:

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> http://mobile.reuters.com/article/idUSKCN11W2NN
>
> Hello everyone. This is my first posting here.
>
> This is interesting. Does the U.S. now see the scales tipping too far in
> favor of Russia and Assad that it is now willing to permit MANPADS to flow
> to the rebels? This would certainly fit within the pattern of keeping the
> conflict stalemate and prolonged. Supplies will likely be limited though
> and not intended to give the rebels any type of major advantage. Supplies
> would probably enter too late, however, to save Aleppo.
>
> Regards,
>
> Ephraim Hussain
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[Marxism] Reuters: Gulf May Arm Rebels Now that Truce is Dead - U.S. Officials

[Syed Ephraim Hussain via Marxism]

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http://mobile.reuters.com/article/idUSKCN11W2NN

Hello everyone. This is my first posting here.

This is interesting. Does the U.S. now see the scales tipping too far in
favor of Russia and Assad that it is now willing to permit MANPADS to flow
to the rebels? This would certainly fit within the pattern of keeping the
conflict stalemate and prolonged. Supplies will likely be limited though
and not intended to give the rebels any type of major advantage. Supplies
would probably enter too late, however, to save Aleppo.

Regards,

Ephraim Hussain
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