Re: [Marxism] Trump in ?fragile? mood and may drop out of 2020 race if poll numbers don?t improve, GOP insiders tell Fox News | The Independent
POSTING RULES & NOTES #1 YOU MUST clip all extraneous text when replying to a message. #2 This mail-list, like most, is publicly & permanently archived. #3 Subscribe and post under an alias if #2 is a concern. * Louis Proyect writes about "the idealized proletarians of the CIO in the 1930s..." He once again fails to recognize the transformation that has come about in the US working class and seems to think that any comment on that (our) class automatically means those blue collar industrial workers. Newsflash: Teachers, secretaries, health care workers (including nurses), uber drives and tech workers are all part of the 21st century proletariat! John Reimann -- *“Science and socialism go hand-in-hand.” *Felicity Dowling Check out:https:http://oaklandsocialist.com also on Facebook _ Full posting guidelines at: http://www.marxmail.org/sub.htm Set your options at: https://lists.csbs.utah.edu/options/marxism/archive%40mail-archive.com
Re: [Marxism] Trump in ?fragile? mood and may drop out of 2020 race if poll numbers don?t improve, GOP insiders tell Fox News | The Independent
POSTING RULES & NOTES #1 YOU MUST clip all extraneous text when replying to a message. #2 This mail-list, like most, is publicly & permanently archived. #3 Subscribe and post under an alias if #2 is a concern. * John Reimann wrote As for Howie Hawkins and the Green Party: I had had hopes that it might develop into something - might start to develop a wider working class base - after Sanders lost in 2016. I think it's pretty clear since then that they won't. A real working class party will develop out of the struggle in the streets, on the jobs, and inside the unions. I have yet to see the Green Party play any significant role in any of that. To my knowledge, for example, they aren't even in the discussion within the protests against the George Floyd murder and the related murders. Those like me who live in a shoo-in state for the Democrats at least don''t have to wrestle internally about voting for the greater dis-evil. We can write in Howie Hawkins, who appears to have a very good track record as a socialist candidate in NY state, as a way of recording our protest. _ Full posting guidelines at: http://www.marxmail.org/sub.htm Set your options at: https://lists.csbs.utah.edu/options/marxism/archive%40mail-archive.com
Re: [Marxism] Trump in ?fragile? mood and may drop out of 2020 race if poll numbers don?t improve, GOP insiders tell Fox News | The Independent
POSTING RULES & NOTES #1 YOU MUST clip all extraneous text when replying to a message. #2 This mail-list, like most, is publicly & permanently archived. #3 Subscribe and post under an alias if #2 is a concern. * John, Mark's one line is the REASON I firmly believe that "this time" polls mean nothing --"What could lose the election is turnout" --- how can any poll correctly identify "likely voters" in this sui generis situation --- Voter suppression probably stopped Kemp from having to face Abrams in a run-off in Georgia -- and may have played a role in black voter turnout in Milwaukee in 2016. And I absolutely agree with John that we (the country) are in much worse shape because Trump won than we would be if Cllinton had won --- I do think, however, that one can AT LEAST make an argument that had Clinton won, it would be the RIGHT that would be totally energized to fight her and the left would be torn between supporting her and fighting her --- whereas with Trump in power it is our side -- mostly liberals but plenty of radicals as well --- who are united (and energized) to fight Trump --- in other words the LEFT is in better shape to advance out agenda because Trump won ... Imagine giant demonstrations for Black Lives Matter (with all the multiracial support generated today) if Clinton had won ?? Don't think so. (Mike Meeropol) _ Full posting guidelines at: http://www.marxmail.org/sub.htm Set your options at: https://lists.csbs.utah.edu/options/marxism/archive%40mail-archive.com
Re: [Marxism] Trump in ?fragile? mood and may drop out of 2020 race if poll numbers don?t improve, GOP insiders tell Fox News | The Independent
POSTING RULES & NOTES #1 YOU MUST clip all extraneous text when replying to a message. #2 This mail-list, like most, is publicly & permanently archived. #3 Subscribe and post under an alias if #2 is a concern. * Mark Lause writes: "I do think there's nothing that's going to jolt voters into forgetting what Trump's record." I think both the 2018 results as well as all present polls show that is not correct. Hundreds of thousands if not millions of previous Trump voters voted for a Democrat in 2018 in an election that was in effect a referendum on Trump. And the fact that his polling numbers today are dropping like a stone also shows that that is untrue. Not only are college educated white suburban moms ("soccer moms"?) turning against Trump, so are those over 60 and even a layer of white, males without a college education. Even among those who "strongly approve" of Trump today, it would surprise me if even among some of them, his support could erode, at the very least to the extent that their enthusiasm will decrease to the extent that they won't vote at all. I think some great shock will be required to move them, but shocks are inherent in the situation. We know, for example, that the Trump supporters tend to be very patriotic and for many of them, the immediate reaction to Americans being killed (most especially US soldiers) is almost being willing to drop a nuclear bomb. What will happen if it is decisively proven that Trump knew about the Russian bounty on US soldiers in Afghanistan and did nothing? (My own suspicion is that the information was in his daily briefing but that they hoped he wouldn't read it because if he did they feared he'd go directly to Putin and let Putin know that US intelligence knew.) There is a layer of Trump supporters about whom what Mark writes is true. I suspect that they are about one quarter or a little more of the electorate. That doesn't even come close to being enough to win an election, not even with voter suppression. I do think that Trump's reelection (which now seems increasingly doubtful although far from ruled out) would be a serious defeat, an even greater defeat than the election of Biden. If Trump got back in, it would enormously boost the far right - the white supremacists, violent militias, and outright fascists. It would give Trump a free hand to even further steamroll all semblance of opposition. This is not the same as what could have been said - and was said - about previous Republican presidents (Reagan, Bush, etc.). Trump actually is qualitatively different from them. As for Howie Hawkins and the Green Party: I had had hopes that it might develop into something - might start to develop a wider working class base - after Sanders lost in 2016. I think it's pretty clear since then that they won't. A real working class party will develop out of the struggle in the streets, on the jobs, and inside the unions. I have yet to see the Green Party play any significant role in any of that. To my knowledge, for example, they aren't even in the discussion within the protests against the George Floyd murder and the related murders. I voted for the Greens in 2016 and now I think it was a mistake for two reasons: First is that I underestimated the importance of their vice presidential candidate being an Assad supporter and their presidential candidate palling around with Putin and, in effect, saying that a Trump victory was better than a Clinton victory. Despite that, I might have voted for them anyway had I been right that they might develop a genuine working class base. (And, no, I don't see blue collar men as being the only members of the US working class.) John Reimann On Tue, Jun 30, 2020 at 11:52 AM Mark Lause wrote: > I do think there's nothing that's going to jolt voters into forgetting > what Trump's record. His diehard supporters know and don't care. But I > think he's damaged severely and not bright enough to even attempt to do > anything about it other than to repeat what's worked for him in the past. > Nothing he does is going to get significantly more than he's already got. > > What could lose the election is turnout. The Democrats are trying hard to > convince people that Joe Biden is some kind of old liberal or more, which > he wasn't. Neither is he entirely up to the ordeal of a serious campaign > without become too exhausted or frustrated to being making utterly > gratuitous and idiotic comments revealing his arrogance and sense of > entitlement. Either the Democratic leadership will use him only in very > controlled situations and win or they will let him do what Trump does and > risk losing by persuading voters that it's not worth their while to > participate in such a crappy and demeaning process. > > Our task should be to see if we can get Howie Hawkins a percentage of the > popular vote as large as Nader got in 2000. More is
Re: [Marxism] Trump in ?fragile? mood and may drop out of 2020 race if poll numbers don?t improve, GOP insiders tell Fox News | The Independent
POSTING RULES & NOTES #1 YOU MUST clip all extraneous text when replying to a message. #2 This mail-list, like most, is publicly & permanently archived. #3 Subscribe and post under an alias if #2 is a concern. * I do think there's nothing that's going to jolt voters into forgetting what Trump's record. His diehard supporters know and don't care. But I think he's damaged severely and not bright enough to even attempt to do anything about it other than to repeat what's worked for him in the past. Nothing he does is going to get significantly more than he's already got. What could lose the election is turnout. The Democrats are trying hard to convince people that Joe Biden is some kind of old liberal or more, which he wasn't. Neither is he entirely up to the ordeal of a serious campaign without become too exhausted or frustrated to being making utterly gratuitous and idiotic comments revealing his arrogance and sense of entitlement. Either the Democratic leadership will use him only in very controlled situations and win or they will let him do what Trump does and risk losing by persuading voters that it's not worth their while to participate in such a crappy and demeaning process. Our task should be to see if we can get Howie Hawkins a percentage of the popular vote as large as Nader got in 2000. More is possible. All else aside, there was a certain very unmerited popularity for Clinton among some quarters of the female electorate. Biden does not have anything like that . . . well, maybe septuagenarians who think that LBJ was treated badly because of a misunderstanding or something. But this leaves a sizeable constituency of people who had hoped for better than Bidenand that, too, is a question of whether an insurgent ticket can mobilize and turn out those voters. _ Full posting guidelines at: http://www.marxmail.org/sub.htm Set your options at: https://lists.csbs.utah.edu/options/marxism/archive%40mail-archive.com
Re: [Marxism] Trump in ?fragile? mood and may drop out of 2020 race if poll numbers don?t improve, GOP insiders tell Fox News | The Independent
POSTING RULES & NOTES #1 YOU MUST clip all extraneous text when replying to a message. #2 This mail-list, like most, is publicly & permanently archived. #3 Subscribe and post under an alias if #2 is a concern. * I don't agree with Michael Meeropol that poll numbers mean nothing. Nor does either Trump or Biden. Even in 2016 the poll numbers weren't that far off. They predicted a Clinton victory, and they were right. They just didn't take into account the electoral college distortions. Also, there was another factor: Just slightly over a week before the election, Comey released a statement saying that there was more to investigate regarding Hillary Clinton. That had a significant effect, but it came too late for the polls to show it. As far as voter suppression: I've been commenting on that for some time. However, Trump can only suppress just so much of the votes, and it has to be done on a demographic basis. In other words, he can't pick and choose which individual voters he wants to suppress; he can only suppress votes in, for example, a mainly black precinct. His problem is that now, it's not only college educated younger white voters who are turning against him. Even older voters are, including older whites. And even his lead among non-college educated whites is declining. We should never underestimate the potential of Biden to totally screw things up, nor the possibility that some shock could happen that could transform everything, but Trump made his real move when he tried to get the army to intervene. Once he was stymied there, he was in deep trouble. Not saying the outcome is definite, but he's in trouble. And I think it's ridiculous to think that we'd be in better shape if Clinton had won. No, I didn't vote for her, but the degree that the far right - outright fascists included - has developed under Trump is unprecedented in my lifetime. John Reimann -- *“Science and socialism go hand-in-hand.” *Felicity Dowling Check out:https:http://oaklandsocialist.com also on Facebook _ Full posting guidelines at: http://www.marxmail.org/sub.htm Set your options at: https://lists.csbs.utah.edu/options/marxism/archive%40mail-archive.com