Today's London Evening Standard shows a decline in the opinion polls for
Ken Livingstone. Nevertheless their right wing editorial line continues to
support him as a thorn in the flesh of the Labour Government.
Ken is down from a month ago by 12% to 49%. Dobson, the New Labour choice,
has picked up none of this and has if anything slipped a point to 15%.
Norris, the conservative candidate, finally married again, has just
overtaken him at 16% by picking up 3%. The Liberal is up 4% to 12% and the
Green is on 4%.
Ken has been slightly damaged in the atmosphere of consensus politics
presumably by conservative voters wondering if they really want to vote for
him. Just before the poll he had hinted at the legalisation of cannabis.
However he is likely to get a lot of the second preference votes in a
tactical switch, and will he get almost all of Dobson's.
But lest non-Brits think that history is made by individual heroes, what
may really matter is the voting for the assembly.
Labour's percentage is still apparently strong at 44%, and the
conservatives still down at 27%. Liberals at 17%.
In his time at the GLC, Ken was surrounded by radical Labour councillors
who produced many of the ideas he marketed. This time it is possible that
his standing may increase the vote by cutting abstentions.
There are no signs yet that he will bring a lot of people to vote for the
London Socialist Alliance list - a coalition of Trotskyist groups. He is
clearly not backing them publically. The Assembly votes are more likely to
go to Labour. And the Assembly seats will be distributed by proportional
representation, requiring consensus politics.
I suppose the key question for a marxist analysis is whether Ken's
candidacy opens up a space for genuinely radical politics. Not as much, I
suspect, as the Trotskyist entrist groups assume.
Painful though Dobson's defeat will be for Blair, it looks however as if
this constitutional experiment will liven up local politics in London.
Perhaps the election of that will be the really interesting one politically.
Chris Burford
London
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