Re: [Marxism] Trump in ?fragile? mood and may drop out of 2020 race if poll numbers don?t improve, GOP insiders tell Fox News | The Independent

2020-06-30 Thread John Reimann via Marxism
  POSTING RULES & NOTES  
#1 YOU MUST clip all extraneous text when replying to a message.
#2 This mail-list, like most, is publicly & permanently archived.
#3 Subscribe and post under an alias if #2 is a concern.
*

Louis Proyect writes about "the idealized proletarians of the CIO in
the 1930s..." He once again fails to recognize the transformation that has
come about in the US working class and seems to think that any comment on
that (our) class automatically means those blue collar industrial workers.
Newsflash: Teachers, secretaries, health care workers (including nurses),
uber drives and tech workers are all part of the 21st century proletariat!

John Reimann

-- 
*“Science and socialism go hand-in-hand.” *Felicity Dowling
Check out:https:http://oaklandsocialist.com also on Facebook
_
Full posting guidelines at: http://www.marxmail.org/sub.htm
Set your options at: 
https://lists.csbs.utah.edu/options/marxism/archive%40mail-archive.com


Re: [Marxism] Trump in ?fragile? mood and may drop out of 2020 race if poll numbers don?t improve, GOP insiders tell Fox News | The Independent

2020-06-30 Thread Ralph Johansen via Marxism

  POSTING RULES & NOTES  
#1 YOU MUST clip all extraneous text when replying to a message.
#2 This mail-list, like most, is publicly & permanently archived.
#3 Subscribe and post under an alias if #2 is a concern.
*

John Reimann wrote

As for Howie Hawkins and the Green Party: I had had hopes that it might 
develop into something - might start to develop a wider working class 
base - after Sanders lost in 2016. I think it's pretty clear since then 
that they won't. A real working class party will develop out of the 
struggle in the streets, on the jobs, and inside the unions. I have yet 
to see the Green Party play any significant role in any of that. To my 
knowledge, for example, they aren't even in the discussion within the 
protests against the George Floyd murder and the related murders.


Those like me who live in a shoo-in state for the Democrats at least 
don''t have to wrestle internally about voting for the greater dis-evil. 
We can write in Howie Hawkins, who appears to have a very good track 
record as a socialist candidate in NY state, as a way of recording our 
protest.

_
Full posting guidelines at: http://www.marxmail.org/sub.htm
Set your options at: 
https://lists.csbs.utah.edu/options/marxism/archive%40mail-archive.com


Re: [Marxism] Trump in ?fragile? mood and may drop out of 2020 race if poll numbers don?t improve, GOP insiders tell Fox News | The Independent

2020-06-30 Thread Michael Meeropol via Marxism
  POSTING RULES & NOTES  
#1 YOU MUST clip all extraneous text when replying to a message.
#2 This mail-list, like most, is publicly & permanently archived.
#3 Subscribe and post under an alias if #2 is a concern.
*

John, Mark's one line is the REASON I firmly believe that "this time" polls
mean nothing --"What could lose the election is turnout" --- how can any
poll correctly identify "likely voters" in this sui generis situation ---

Voter suppression probably stopped Kemp from having to face Abrams in a
run-off in Georgia -- and may have played a role in black voter turnout in
Milwaukee in 2016.

And I absolutely agree with John that we (the country) are in much worse
shape because Trump won than we would be if Cllinton had won --- I do
think, however, that one can AT LEAST make an argument that had Clinton
won, it would be the RIGHT that would be totally energized to fight her and
the left would be torn between supporting her and fighting her --- whereas
with Trump in power it is our side -- mostly liberals but plenty of
radicals as well --- who are united (and energized) to fight Trump --- in
other words the LEFT is in better shape to advance out agenda because Trump
won ...

Imagine giant demonstrations for Black Lives Matter (with all the
multiracial support generated today) if Clinton had won ??  Don't think
so.

(Mike Meeropol)
_
Full posting guidelines at: http://www.marxmail.org/sub.htm
Set your options at: 
https://lists.csbs.utah.edu/options/marxism/archive%40mail-archive.com


Re: [Marxism] Trump in ?fragile? mood and may drop out of 2020 race if poll numbers don?t improve, GOP insiders tell Fox News | The Independent

2020-06-30 Thread John Reimann via Marxism
  POSTING RULES & NOTES  
#1 YOU MUST clip all extraneous text when replying to a message.
#2 This mail-list, like most, is publicly & permanently archived.
#3 Subscribe and post under an alias if #2 is a concern.
*

Mark Lause writes: "I do think there's nothing that's going to jolt voters
into forgetting what Trump's record." I think both the 2018 results as well
as all present polls show that is not correct. Hundreds of thousands if not
millions of previous Trump voters voted for a Democrat in 2018 in an
election that was in effect a referendum on Trump. And the fact that his
polling numbers today are dropping like a stone also shows that that is
untrue. Not only are college educated white suburban moms ("soccer moms"?)
turning against Trump, so are those over 60 and even a layer of white,
males without a college education.

Even among those who "strongly approve" of Trump today, it would surprise
me if even among some of them, his support could erode, at the very least
to the extent that their enthusiasm will decrease to the extent that they
won't vote at all. I think some great shock will be required to move them,
but shocks are inherent in the situation. We know, for example, that the
Trump supporters tend to be very patriotic and for many of them, the
immediate reaction to Americans being killed (most especially US soldiers)
is almost being willing to drop a nuclear bomb. What will happen if it is
decisively proven that Trump knew about the Russian bounty on US soldiers
in Afghanistan and did nothing? (My own suspicion is that the information
was in his daily briefing but that they hoped he wouldn't read it because
if he did they feared he'd go directly to Putin and let Putin know that US
intelligence knew.)

There is a layer of Trump supporters about whom what Mark writes is true. I
suspect that they are about one quarter or a little more of the electorate.
That doesn't even come close to being enough to win an election, not even
with voter suppression.

I do think that Trump's reelection (which now seems increasingly doubtful
although far from ruled out) would be a serious defeat, an even greater
defeat than the election of Biden. If Trump got back in, it would
enormously boost the far right - the white supremacists, violent militias,
and outright fascists. It would give Trump a free hand to even further
steamroll all semblance of opposition. This is not the same as what could
have been said - and was said - about previous Republican presidents
(Reagan, Bush, etc.). Trump actually is qualitatively different from them.

As for Howie Hawkins and the Green Party: I had had hopes that it might
develop into something - might start to develop a wider working class base
- after Sanders lost in 2016. I think it's pretty clear since then that
they won't. A real working class party will develop out of the struggle in
the streets, on the jobs, and inside the unions. I have yet to see the
Green Party play any significant role in any of that. To my knowledge, for
example, they aren't even in the discussion within the protests against the
George Floyd murder and the related murders.

I voted for the Greens in 2016 and now I think it was a mistake for two
reasons: First is that I underestimated the importance of their vice
presidential candidate being an Assad supporter and their presidential
candidate palling around with Putin and, in effect, saying that a Trump
victory was better than a Clinton victory. Despite that, I might have voted
for them anyway had I been right that they might develop a genuine working
class base. (And, no, I don't see blue collar men as being the only members
of the US working class.)

John Reimann

On Tue, Jun 30, 2020 at 11:52 AM Mark Lause  wrote:

> I do think there's nothing that's going to jolt voters into forgetting
> what Trump's record.  His diehard supporters know and don't care.  But I
> think he's damaged severely and not bright enough to even attempt to do
> anything about it other than to repeat what's worked for him in the past.
> Nothing he does is going to get significantly more than he's already got.
>
> What could lose the election is turnout.  The Democrats are trying hard to
> convince people that Joe Biden is some kind of old liberal or more, which
> he wasn't.  Neither is he entirely up to the ordeal of a serious campaign
> without become too exhausted or frustrated to being making utterly
> gratuitous and idiotic comments revealing his arrogance and sense of
> entitlement.  Either the Democratic leadership will use him only in very
> controlled situations and win or they will let him do what Trump does and
> risk losing by persuading voters that it's not worth their while to
> participate in such a crappy and demeaning process.
>
> Our task should be to see if we can get Howie Hawkins a percentage of the
> popular vote as large as Nader got in 2000.  More is 

Re: [Marxism] Trump in ?fragile? mood and may drop out of 2020 race if poll numbers don?t improve, GOP insiders tell Fox News | The Independent

2020-06-30 Thread Mark Lause via Marxism
  POSTING RULES & NOTES  
#1 YOU MUST clip all extraneous text when replying to a message.
#2 This mail-list, like most, is publicly & permanently archived.
#3 Subscribe and post under an alias if #2 is a concern.
*

I do think there's nothing that's going to jolt voters into forgetting what
Trump's record.  His diehard supporters know and don't care.  But I think
he's damaged severely and not bright enough to even attempt to do anything
about it other than to repeat what's worked for him in the past.  Nothing
he does is going to get significantly more than he's already got.

What could lose the election is turnout.  The Democrats are trying hard to
convince people that Joe Biden is some kind of old liberal or more, which
he wasn't.  Neither is he entirely up to the ordeal of a serious campaign
without become too exhausted or frustrated to being making utterly
gratuitous and idiotic comments revealing his arrogance and sense of
entitlement.  Either the Democratic leadership will use him only in very
controlled situations and win or they will let him do what Trump does and
risk losing by persuading voters that it's not worth their while to
participate in such a crappy and demeaning process.

Our task should be to see if we can get Howie Hawkins a percentage of the
popular vote as large as Nader got in 2000.  More is possible.  All else
aside, there was a certain very unmerited popularity for Clinton among some
quarters of the female electorate.  Biden does not have anything like that
. . . well, maybe septuagenarians who think that LBJ was treated badly
because of a misunderstanding or something.  But this leaves a sizeable
constituency of people who had hoped for better than Bidenand that, too, is
a question of whether an insurgent ticket can mobilize and turn out those
voters.
_
Full posting guidelines at: http://www.marxmail.org/sub.htm
Set your options at: 
https://lists.csbs.utah.edu/options/marxism/archive%40mail-archive.com


Re: [Marxism] Trump in ?fragile? mood and may drop out of 2020 race if poll numbers don?t improve, GOP insiders tell Fox News | The Independent

2020-06-30 Thread John Reimann via Marxism
  POSTING RULES & NOTES  
#1 YOU MUST clip all extraneous text when replying to a message.
#2 This mail-list, like most, is publicly & permanently archived.
#3 Subscribe and post under an alias if #2 is a concern.
*

I don't agree with Michael Meeropol that poll numbers mean nothing. Nor
does either Trump or Biden. Even in 2016 the poll numbers weren't that far
off. They predicted a Clinton victory, and they were right. They just
didn't take into account the electoral college distortions. Also, there was
another factor: Just slightly over a week before the election, Comey
released a statement saying that there was more to investigate regarding
Hillary Clinton. That had a significant effect, but it came too late for
the polls to show it.

As far as voter suppression: I've been commenting on that for some time.
However, Trump can only suppress just so much of the votes, and it has to
be done on a demographic basis. In other words, he can't pick and choose
which individual voters he wants to suppress; he can only suppress votes
in, for example, a mainly black precinct. His problem is that now, it's not
only college educated younger white voters who are turning against him.
Even older voters are, including older whites. And even his lead among
non-college educated whites is declining.

We should never underestimate the potential of Biden to totally screw
things up, nor the possibility that some shock could happen that could
transform everything, but Trump made his real move when he tried to get the
army to intervene. Once he was stymied there, he was in deep trouble. Not
saying the outcome is definite, but he's in trouble.

And I think it's ridiculous to think that we'd be in better shape if
Clinton had won. No, I didn't vote for her, but the degree that the far
right - outright fascists included - has developed under Trump is
unprecedented in my lifetime.

John Reimann

-- 
*“Science and socialism go hand-in-hand.” *Felicity Dowling
Check out:https:http://oaklandsocialist.com also on Facebook
_
Full posting guidelines at: http://www.marxmail.org/sub.htm
Set your options at: 
https://lists.csbs.utah.edu/options/marxism/archive%40mail-archive.com