Date: Wed, 6 Aug 1997 08:39:55 -0500 To: mc...@world.std.com From: Guy Hermann <g...@mystic.org> Subject: RE: IBM versus Macintosh
>Late entry to discussion, and a statistic, too. According to 7/14/97 issue= > of Computerworld, Apple's PC market share has dropped from 6% last year to= > 3% this year. This alone makes me real nervous about even short term futu= >re. However you feel about Boy Bill and the Wintel Empire, they are here, = >there is a glut of new products (hard, firm and soft) being produced from t= >hem, and the future looks MSy. I'm not nervous. I won't question MS's dominance, but a closer look at the situation can lead to a differing analysis. Most important, there is now a distinction which needs to be remembered between Apple and the MacOS. Apple is selling fewer computers. Clone makers are selling more. Overall MacOS market share is about the same. This is bad for Apple, but good for the MacOS. A good discussion (Mac slanted of course!) is available at: http://www.mackido.com/Reference/MacOrNT.html Here is an excerpt: Apple is not going out of business. Apple is number 150 on the Fortune 500 list, ahead of Bethlehem Steel, General Dynamics, Coca-Cola, Nike, Oracle, Sun Microsystems, and Cisco Systems. Microsoft is ranked only at 172. (Fortune 500 Listing, July 15, 1997) Overall, Apple's doing well given the current state of the computer market, the growth of which is flattening (The Hollywood Reporter, Scott McKim). That Apple has lost money is a minor issue. With 1.7 billion in revenue, the most recent quarter's fifty-million dollar loss is trivial. MARKET SHARE Contrary to public opinion, the Mac OS market is growing, not shrinking. >From January '96 to January '97, Mac OS market share grew 61.5% (CI: US Dealer Sales Show Ray of Hope for Mac OS, Rogers Communications, March 7, 1997). Apple may lose share, but that's to be expected with competition. IBM began the personal computing market and then nearly disappeared from it. The market lives on. The Washington Times said: Industry critics have been predicting the death of Apple Computer for most of the 1990s. The news that Gil Amelio, Apple's chairman and chief executive, abruptly resigned and was replaced provided fresh cries of Apple's impending demise. Apple will likely survive, even if a massive refocusing is needed. The Mac platform, however, will grow and thrive, even if your next Mac doesn't come from Cupertino and even if someone other than Apple makes the next revision of the Mac operating system. (Apple May Appear Sour, But Strong, Deep Roots Assure Survival, The Washington Times, July 14, 1997). Even if Apple has only a small market share.... According to Automotive News (October, 1995), Saab, Mercedes, Infiniti, Volvo, Lexus, and BMW have less than 1% of the world car market each. And even the big guns like Mitsubishi and Chrysler, have less than 2% of the market apiece. The bottom 16 car companies put together, in fact, constitute only 9.8% of the market. Does that mean these companies won't survive? Hardly. They are prospering companies that would kill for Apple's 9% market share. So would almost any individual PC clone maker (Clip'n Save: The Numbers Nobody Knows, MacWorld Magazine, July, 1996). Apple's ailments are well documented in the press, but the press still equates Mac OS market share with Apple market share. If Apple simply closed its doors today, there's no shortage of clones, and they're building market share. Those building and licensed to build Mac clones include: Motorola Akia IBM Power Computing Vertegri Research Marathon Computers UMAX Vision Power PowerTools Daystar Digital Everex ProMax APS Exponential Computer Warehouse FirePower Systems There are also nearly a dozen foreign manufacturers. If Apple simply vanished, the clone makers would continue the Mac OS. Many are larger than Apple itself and are deeply bound to the company. ........ and many more pages of discussion. Guy S. Hermann ** g...@mysticseaport.org ** 860-572-5392 http://www.mysticseaport.org/ The Museum of America and the Sea "Community precedes commerce." John Hagel "The network is the network." Eric Schmidt
