Re: [MBZ] OT:Covid 19 Podcast
Those were merely construction debris fires --FT Sent from iPhone > On Mar 18, 2020, at 9:51 PM, Curley McLain via Mercedes > wrote: > > IN LATE DEC, EARLY JAN, there were reports that smoke from wuhan could be > seen from satellites. it was postulated that this was from incinerating > bodies. That would be more in line with the deaths from wuhan flu in other > countries. Could well have been millions.The whole thing is the fault of > the chicoms on several levels. > > > Curt Raymond via Mercedes wrote on 3/18/20 10:23 AM: >> If we're talking about even a 1% mortality rate wouldn't China be staring >> down around 10 million dead? >> At some point its probably difficult to quantify exactly what people died >> of. Especially in the elderly population some (many?) of these people were >> going to die soon anyway. >> >> Angie's grandmother lives in assisted living, she's 90. She was telling >> Angie that at night they're not supposed to leave their rooms but they've >> been sneaking out to play cards. Probably not the safest thing to do but a >> good thing for their mental health. >> >> -Curt >> > > > ___ > http://www.okiebenz.com > > To search list archives http://www.okiebenz.com/archive/ > > To Unsubscribe or change delivery options go to: > http://mail.okiebenz.com/mailman/listinfo/mercedes_okiebenz.com > ___ http://www.okiebenz.com To search list archives http://www.okiebenz.com/archive/ To Unsubscribe or change delivery options go to: http://mail.okiebenz.com/mailman/listinfo/mercedes_okiebenz.com
Re: [MBZ] OT:Covid 19 Podcast
IN LATE DEC, EARLY JAN, there were reports that smoke from wuhan could be seen from satellites. it was postulated that this was from incinerating bodies. That would be more in line with the deaths from wuhan flu in other countries. Could well have been millions. The whole thing is the fault of the chicoms on several levels. Curt Raymond via Mercedes wrote on 3/18/20 10:23 AM: If we're talking about even a 1% mortality rate wouldn't China be staring down around 10 million dead? At some point its probably difficult to quantify exactly what people died of. Especially in the elderly population some (many?) of these people were going to die soon anyway. Angie's grandmother lives in assisted living, she's 90. She was telling Angie that at night they're not supposed to leave their rooms but they've been sneaking out to play cards. Probably not the safest thing to do but a good thing for their mental health. -Curt ___ http://www.okiebenz.com To search list archives http://www.okiebenz.com/archive/ To Unsubscribe or change delivery options go to: http://mail.okiebenz.com/mailman/listinfo/mercedes_okiebenz.com
Re: [MBZ] OT:Covid 19 Podcast
https://www.independent.co.uk/arts-entertainment/tv/news/coronavirus-cnn-update-boris-johnson-lord-farquaad-speech-shrek-a9408036.html clay > On Mar 18, 2020, at 11:19 AM, Floyd Thursby via Mercedes > wrote: > > This is what will happen. There are 100k ICU beds in the US (and maybe some > more ventilators that could be found in ORs and such). When those are in use, > the medical facilities will have to start triage, and those more likely to > survive a severe infection will get the resources (HINT: that ain't old > folks and others who are immuno-compromised). ___ http://www.okiebenz.com To search list archives http://www.okiebenz.com/archive/ To Unsubscribe or change delivery options go to: http://mail.okiebenz.com/mailman/listinfo/mercedes_okiebenz.com
Re: [MBZ] OT:Covid 19 Podcast
Apparently they're trying to totally isolate the old folks at Angie's grandmother's place. They take them their meals and tell them not to leave their rooms ever. No guests are allowed in at all. I'm not sure if they're trying to save them or kill them faster... -Curt On Wednesday, March 18, 2020, 9:17:00 PM EDT, Clay via Mercedes wrote: Old people home is probably a fairly good place to hang out in a situation like this. My mother (90) is self isolating. She has a dog to care for, but probably could use company other than a dog. Too afeared to wander the aisles of a grocery store. Not sure they have instituted seniors shopping events in her town. clay > On Mar 18, 2020, at 7:23 AM, Curt Raymond via Mercedes > wrote: > > If we're talking about even a 1% mortality rate wouldn't China be staring > down around 10 million dead? > At some point its probably difficult to quantify exactly what people died of. > Especially in the elderly population some (many?) of these people were going > to die soon anyway. > > Angie's grandmother lives in assisted living, she's 90. She was telling Angie > that at night they're not supposed to leave their rooms but they've been > sneaking out to play cards. Probably not the safest thing to do but a good > thing for their mental health. > > -Curt ___ http://www.okiebenz.com To search list archives http://www.okiebenz.com/archive/ To Unsubscribe or change delivery options go to: http://mail.okiebenz.com/mailman/listinfo/mercedes_okiebenz.com ___ http://www.okiebenz.com To search list archives http://www.okiebenz.com/archive/ To Unsubscribe or change delivery options go to: http://mail.okiebenz.com/mailman/listinfo/mercedes_okiebenz.com
Re: [MBZ] OT:Covid 19 Podcast
Old people home is probably a fairly good place to hang out in a situation like this. My mother (90) is self isolating. She has a dog to care for, but probably could use company other than a dog. Too afeared to wander the aisles of a grocery store. Not sure they have instituted seniors shopping events in her town. clay > On Mar 18, 2020, at 7:23 AM, Curt Raymond via Mercedes > wrote: > > If we're talking about even a 1% mortality rate wouldn't China be staring > down around 10 million dead? > At some point its probably difficult to quantify exactly what people died of. > Especially in the elderly population some (many?) of these people were going > to die soon anyway. > > Angie's grandmother lives in assisted living, she's 90. She was telling Angie > that at night they're not supposed to leave their rooms but they've been > sneaking out to play cards. Probably not the safest thing to do but a good > thing for their mental health. > > -Curt ___ http://www.okiebenz.com To search list archives http://www.okiebenz.com/archive/ To Unsubscribe or change delivery options go to: http://mail.okiebenz.com/mailman/listinfo/mercedes_okiebenz.com
Re: [MBZ] OT:Covid 19 Podcast
That number is based on confirmed cases presenting with symptoms so far, but I get your point --FT On 3/18/20 4:37 PM, Allan Streib via Mercedes wrote: So, Italy has a population of 60 million. 6,000 deaths projected. 0.01%. How many deaths do they have from regular influenza? I mean, 6,000 deaths is never a good thing. Especially when it hits in a tsunami and overwhelms the system. But where is it in context of "normal" life and times? Allan Floyd Thursby via Mercedes writes: I have no idea. Some are just ignorant, some don't care, some don't believe it, some believe they are invincible, some playing the odds, most just being humans with whatever denial they have... In Italy it looks like the numbers of people recovered will be about 68,000, with total deaths about 6000 or so (projected for 20 April, Day 59 or so). Maximum hospital load projected at about 47k-48k in about 10days (Day 36, 3/27) from (mostly) known numbers yesterday (Day 26) --_FT On 3/18/20 3:29 PM, Randy Bennell via Mercedes wrote: On 18/03/2020 2:19 PM, Floyd Thursby via Mercedes wrote: This is what will happen. There are 100k ICU beds in the US (and maybe some more ventilators that could be found in ORs and such). When those are in use, the medical facilities will have to start triage, and those more likely to survive a severe infection will get the resources (HINT: that ain't old folks and others who are immuno-compromised). The projections in the podcasts I posted reflect transmission rates, infection rates, reaction rates . . . --FT So, why are people so blase about it all? Your previous post about people shopping and not worrying about touching carts etc seems to indicate that they don't truly understand the potential consequences. Not going to flatten the curve unless we try harder to avoid catching it and spreading it. RB ___ http://www.okiebenz.com To search list archives http://www.okiebenz.com/archive/ To Unsubscribe or change delivery options go to: http://mail.okiebenz.com/mailman/listinfo/mercedes_okiebenz.com -- --FT ___ http://www.okiebenz.com To search list archives http://www.okiebenz.com/archive/ To Unsubscribe or change delivery options go to: http://mail.okiebenz.com/mailman/listinfo/mercedes_okiebenz.com -- --FT ___ http://www.okiebenz.com To search list archives http://www.okiebenz.com/archive/ To Unsubscribe or change delivery options go to: http://mail.okiebenz.com/mailman/listinfo/mercedes_okiebenz.com
Re: [MBZ] OT:Covid 19 Podcast
Italy: About 3000 dead already. 475 today according to the news. Many of the healthcare people are getting it and some of the doctors have died. RB On 18/03/2020 3:37 PM, Allan Streib via Mercedes wrote: So, Italy has a population of 60 million. 6,000 deaths projected. 0.01%. How many deaths do they have from regular influenza? I mean, 6,000 deaths is never a good thing. Especially when it hits in a tsunami and overwhelms the system. But where is it in context of "normal" life and times? Allan Floyd Thursby via Mercedes writes: I have no idea. Some are just ignorant, some don't care, some don't believe it, some believe they are invincible, some playing the odds, most just being humans with whatever denial they have... In Italy it looks like the numbers of people recovered will be about 68,000, with total deaths about 6000 or so (projected for 20 April, Day 59 or so). Maximum hospital load projected at about 47k-48k in about 10days (Day 36, 3/27) from (mostly) known numbers yesterday (Day 26) --_FT On 3/18/20 3:29 PM, Randy Bennell via Mercedes wrote: On 18/03/2020 2:19 PM, Floyd Thursby via Mercedes wrote: This is what will happen. There are 100k ICU beds in the US (and maybe some more ventilators that could be found in ORs and such). When those are in use, the medical facilities will have to start triage, and those more likely to survive a severe infection will get the resources (HINT: that ain't old folks and others who are immuno-compromised). The projections in the podcasts I posted reflect transmission rates, infection rates, reaction rates . . . --FT So, why are people so blase about it all? Your previous post about people shopping and not worrying about touching carts etc seems to indicate that they don't truly understand the potential consequences. Not going to flatten the curve unless we try harder to avoid catching it and spreading it. RB ___ http://www.okiebenz.com To search list archives http://www.okiebenz.com/archive/ To Unsubscribe or change delivery options go to: http://mail.okiebenz.com/mailman/listinfo/mercedes_okiebenz.com -- --FT ___ http://www.okiebenz.com To search list archives http://www.okiebenz.com/archive/ To Unsubscribe or change delivery options go to: http://mail.okiebenz.com/mailman/listinfo/mercedes_okiebenz.com ___ http://www.okiebenz.com To search list archives http://www.okiebenz.com/archive/ To Unsubscribe or change delivery options go to: http://mail.okiebenz.com/mailman/listinfo/mercedes_okiebenz.com
Re: [MBZ] OT:Covid 19 Podcast
So, Italy has a population of 60 million. 6,000 deaths projected. 0.01%. How many deaths do they have from regular influenza? I mean, 6,000 deaths is never a good thing. Especially when it hits in a tsunami and overwhelms the system. But where is it in context of "normal" life and times? Allan Floyd Thursby via Mercedes writes: > I have no idea. Some are just ignorant, some don't care, some don't > believe it, some believe they are invincible, some playing the odds, > most just being humans with whatever denial they have... > > In Italy it looks like the numbers of people recovered will be about > 68,000, with total deaths about 6000 or so (projected for 20 April, Day > 59 or so). Maximum hospital load projected at about 47k-48k in about > 10days (Day 36, 3/27) from (mostly) known numbers yesterday (Day 26) > > --_FT > > On 3/18/20 3:29 PM, Randy Bennell via Mercedes wrote: >> On 18/03/2020 2:19 PM, Floyd Thursby via Mercedes wrote: >>> This is what will happen. There are 100k ICU beds in the US (and >>> maybe some more ventilators that could be found in ORs and such). >>> When those are in use, the medical facilities will have to start >>> triage, and those more likely to survive a severe infection will get >>> the resources (HINT: that ain't old folks and others who are >>> immuno-compromised). >>> >>> The projections in the podcasts I posted reflect transmission rates, >>> infection rates, reaction rates . . . >>> >>> --FT >> >> >> So, why are people so blase about it all? Your previous post about >> people shopping and not worrying about touching carts etc seems to >> indicate that they don't truly understand the potential consequences. >> Not going to flatten the curve unless we try harder to avoid catching >> it and spreading it. >> >> RB >> >> >> ___ >> http://www.okiebenz.com >> >> To search list archives http://www.okiebenz.com/archive/ >> >> To Unsubscribe or change delivery options go to: >> http://mail.okiebenz.com/mailman/listinfo/mercedes_okiebenz.com >> > -- > --FT > > > ___ > http://www.okiebenz.com > > To search list archives http://www.okiebenz.com/archive/ > > To Unsubscribe or change delivery options go to: > http://mail.okiebenz.com/mailman/listinfo/mercedes_okiebenz.com > -- Allan Streib Indiana University Luddy School of Informatics, Computing, and Engineering Digital Science Center | Intelligent Systems Engineering | FutureSystems ___ http://www.okiebenz.com To search list archives http://www.okiebenz.com/archive/ To Unsubscribe or change delivery options go to: http://mail.okiebenz.com/mailman/listinfo/mercedes_okiebenz.com
Re: [MBZ] OT:Covid 19 Podcast
Well a figure of millions of deaths is assuming that all 331 million people in the US will be infected. I don't think that is realistic. I still think that order of magnitude of deaths in the US will be around 5000. I'm basing this on the numbers coming from China and making adjustments / allowances for the lies they are probably telling, and cultural differences and differences in our healthcare systems. I think our national focus should be (1) on increasing the number of ventilators and ICU beds, (2) isolating vulnerable populations (eg elderly, hypertension, etc), (3) developing vaccines and treatments. - Max Charleston SC On Wed, Mar 18, 2020 at 3:19 PM Floyd Thursby via Mercedes < mercedes@okiebenz.com> wrote: > The model projections are based on > various factors and can change depending on those, but just looking at > the numbers, out of 350mil people, even a small mortality number (<1%) > translates into a million or more deaths unless it can be headed off. > > > ___ http://www.okiebenz.com To search list archives http://www.okiebenz.com/archive/ To Unsubscribe or change delivery options go to: http://mail.okiebenz.com/mailman/listinfo/mercedes_okiebenz.com
Re: [MBZ] OT:Covid 19 Podcast
I have no idea. Some are just ignorant, some don't care, some don't believe it, some believe they are invincible, some playing the odds, most just being humans with whatever denial they have... In Italy it looks like the numbers of people recovered will be about 68,000, with total deaths about 6000 or so (projected for 20 April, Day 59 or so). Maximum hospital load projected at about 47k-48k in about 10days (Day 36, 3/27) from (mostly) known numbers yesterday (Day 26) --_FT On 3/18/20 3:29 PM, Randy Bennell via Mercedes wrote: On 18/03/2020 2:19 PM, Floyd Thursby via Mercedes wrote: This is what will happen. There are 100k ICU beds in the US (and maybe some more ventilators that could be found in ORs and such). When those are in use, the medical facilities will have to start triage, and those more likely to survive a severe infection will get the resources (HINT: that ain't old folks and others who are immuno-compromised). The projections in the podcasts I posted reflect transmission rates, infection rates, reaction rates . . . --FT So, why are people so blase about it all? Your previous post about people shopping and not worrying about touching carts etc seems to indicate that they don't truly understand the potential consequences. Not going to flatten the curve unless we try harder to avoid catching it and spreading it. RB ___ http://www.okiebenz.com To search list archives http://www.okiebenz.com/archive/ To Unsubscribe or change delivery options go to: http://mail.okiebenz.com/mailman/listinfo/mercedes_okiebenz.com -- --FT ___ http://www.okiebenz.com To search list archives http://www.okiebenz.com/archive/ To Unsubscribe or change delivery options go to: http://mail.okiebenz.com/mailman/listinfo/mercedes_okiebenz.com
Re: [MBZ] OT:Covid 19 Podcast
I noticed this morning at WW as well as yesterday at Lowe’s that people were making an effort to maintain distance for the most part. -D > On Mar 18, 2020, at 3:29 PM, Randy Bennell via Mercedes > wrote: > > On 18/03/2020 2:19 PM, Floyd Thursby via Mercedes wrote: >> This is what will happen. There are 100k ICU beds in the US (and maybe some >> more ventilators that could be found in ORs and such). When those are in >> use, the medical facilities will have to start triage, and those more likely >> to survive a severe infection will get the resources (HINT: that ain't old >> folks and others who are immuno-compromised). >> >> The projections in the podcasts I posted reflect transmission rates, >> infection rates, reaction rates . . . >> >> --FT > > > So, why are people so blase about it all? Your previous post about people > shopping and not worrying about touching carts etc seems to indicate that > they don't truly understand the potential consequences. Not going to flatten > the curve unless we try harder to avoid catching it and spreading it. > > RB > > > ___ > http://www.okiebenz.com > > To search list archives http://www.okiebenz.com/archive/ > > To Unsubscribe or change delivery options go to: > http://mail.okiebenz.com/mailman/listinfo/mercedes_okiebenz.com > ___ http://www.okiebenz.com To search list archives http://www.okiebenz.com/archive/ To Unsubscribe or change delivery options go to: http://mail.okiebenz.com/mailman/listinfo/mercedes_okiebenz.com
Re: [MBZ] OT:Covid 19 Podcast
On 18/03/2020 2:19 PM, Floyd Thursby via Mercedes wrote: This is what will happen. There are 100k ICU beds in the US (and maybe some more ventilators that could be found in ORs and such). When those are in use, the medical facilities will have to start triage, and those more likely to survive a severe infection will get the resources (HINT: that ain't old folks and others who are immuno-compromised). The projections in the podcasts I posted reflect transmission rates, infection rates, reaction rates . . . --FT So, why are people so blase about it all? Your previous post about people shopping and not worrying about touching carts etc seems to indicate that they don't truly understand the potential consequences. Not going to flatten the curve unless we try harder to avoid catching it and spreading it. RB ___ http://www.okiebenz.com To search list archives http://www.okiebenz.com/archive/ To Unsubscribe or change delivery options go to: http://mail.okiebenz.com/mailman/listinfo/mercedes_okiebenz.com
Re: [MBZ] OT:Covid 19 Podcast
This is what will happen. There are 100k ICU beds in the US (and maybe some more ventilators that could be found in ORs and such). When those are in use, the medical facilities will have to start triage, and those more likely to survive a severe infection will get the resources (HINT: that ain't old folks and others who are immuno-compromised). The projections in the podcasts I posted reflect transmission rates, infection rates, reaction rates (i.e., symptoms of varying degrees) and what is known about survival rates. Italy is the most believable at this point as far as mortality, no one believes China or Iran where the infection rates and mortalities are likely very high and not being reported. While cultural factors in other countries might contribute to the spread, and general health and availability of treatment affect the mortality rate (and Italy probably hit that limit early on), the disease IS spreading and will continue to do so through the population for some time. Tests are a bit of a red herring -- there aren't that many kits available, and the people being tested might not actually be representative of the general situation (carriers, symptomatic, just being tested for whatever reasons). The model projections are based on various factors and can change depending on those, but just looking at the numbers, out of 350mil people, even a small mortality number (<1%) translates into a million or more deaths unless it can be headed off. On Day26 yesterday in Italy, appears to be running 8-9% mortality of those presenting and tested postitive and under treatment (current numbers and 5 week projections), but again the total infected is not clear at this point so that is just known cases. Mortality lags presentations so while those presenting daily will decline, deaths will continue to rise for maybe 10days past peak new cases. The peak of new (known) cases appeared to be a coupla days ago, at about 3500 new daily cases and that number (of new cases) is now expected to decline to a small number in about a month, but the hospital load will continue increasing for 10-15 days from now, and of course the total recovered, under treatment, and dying will continue to increase but will level off as the new cases and hospital load level off and decrease after a peak of people under treatment. New cases are projected to trend toward zero in about a month. The US might be able to change these numbers based on current behaviors and "flattening the curve" but even so, the mortality numbers (even with low mortality *rates* unlike current and projected 8-9% in Italy) could be very high. That is the scary part. I have a friend in India I trade emails with occasionally, he said things there are getting locked down pretty tight. No word of the spread and results. Their population is about China-size 1bil+ I guess, and sanitation and such... Could be rough. --FT On 3/18/20 2:39 PM, Randy Bennell via Mercedes wrote: But are you reading anything about what is happening in Italy? I read an article this morning that was rather disturbing. They were calling it a humanitarian disaster. A state of the art hospital overrun, turning patients away. People over 65 being shunted aside in favour of younger folks. Smaller town hospitals without any ICU or specialized equipment being forced to deal with patients that they cannot send to the big hospital as they normally do. Their doctors were basically saying the rest of the developed world needs to prepare as best they can for such an eventuality. Recession may be the least of our worries. Money won't help you if you are dead. RB On 18/03/2020 1:26 PM, Rick Knoble via Mercedes wrote: but I am still convinced that shutting down the >whole country and bringing about an economic recession is an over-reaction. That's what the link I sent basically said. Here is today's link. https://youtu.be/i38-ysmXnm0 Rick ___ ___ http://www.okiebenz.com To search list archives http://www.okiebenz.com/archive/ To Unsubscribe or change delivery options go to: http://mail.okiebenz.com/mailman/listinfo/mercedes_okiebenz.com -- --FT ___ http://www.okiebenz.com To search list archives http://www.okiebenz.com/archive/ To Unsubscribe or change delivery options go to: http://mail.okiebenz.com/mailman/listinfo/mercedes_okiebenz.com
Re: [MBZ] OT:Covid 19 Podcast
But are you reading anything about what is happening in Italy? I read an article this morning that was rather disturbing. They were calling it a humanitarian disaster. A state of the art hospital overrun, turning patients away. People over 65 being shunted aside in favour of younger folks. Smaller town hospitals without any ICU or specialized equipment being forced to deal with patients that they cannot send to the big hospital as they normally do. Their doctors were basically saying the rest of the developed world needs to prepare as best they can for such an eventuality. Recession may be the least of our worries. Money won't help you if you are dead. RB On 18/03/2020 1:26 PM, Rick Knoble via Mercedes wrote: but I am still convinced that shutting down the >whole country and bringing about an economic recession is an over-reaction. That's what the link I sent basically said. Here is today's link. https://youtu.be/i38-ysmXnm0 Rick ___ ___ http://www.okiebenz.com To search list archives http://www.okiebenz.com/archive/ To Unsubscribe or change delivery options go to: http://mail.okiebenz.com/mailman/listinfo/mercedes_okiebenz.com
Re: [MBZ] OT:Covid 19 Podcast
Here's yesterday's NIH news release on the stability of COV 19 on a variety of surfaces. https://www.nih.gov/news-events/news-releases/new-coronavirus-stable-hours-surfaces On Wed, Mar 18, 2020 at 2:27 PM Rick Knoble via Mercedes < mercedes@okiebenz.com> wrote: > >but I am still convinced that shutting down the >whole country and > bringing about an economic > >recession is an over-reaction. > > That's what the link I sent basically said. > Here is today's link. > > https://youtu.be/i38-ysmXnm0 > > Rick > ___ > http://www.okiebenz.com > > To search list archives http://www.okiebenz.com/archive/ > > To Unsubscribe or change delivery options go to: > http://mail.okiebenz.com/mailman/listinfo/mercedes_okiebenz.com > > ___ http://www.okiebenz.com To search list archives http://www.okiebenz.com/archive/ To Unsubscribe or change delivery options go to: http://mail.okiebenz.com/mailman/listinfo/mercedes_okiebenz.com
Re: [MBZ] OT:Covid 19 Podcast
>but I am still convinced that shutting down the >whole country and bringing >about an economic >recession is an over-reaction. That's what the link I sent basically said. Here is today's link. https://youtu.be/i38-ysmXnm0 Rick ___ http://www.okiebenz.com To search list archives http://www.okiebenz.com/archive/ To Unsubscribe or change delivery options go to: http://mail.okiebenz.com/mailman/listinfo/mercedes_okiebenz.com
Re: [MBZ] OT:Covid 19 Podcast
Realistically, many old folks gradually lose their sense of taste, which makes them unhappy with meals. Also, meals (such as they are) become a huge event in the day of institutionalized folks. Everybody complains about hospital food but it is not unhealthy. I don't have a solution other than a cache of Texas Pete and non-food life enrichment. If available, internet connectivity can offer a lot of interesting stuff from skype and social networking to streaming entertainment. That said, in my experience, institutionalized (hospital, senior home, etc.) folks need an advocate or they get lost in the system. -Original Message- From: Randy Bennell via Mercedes Sent: Wednesday, March 18, 2020 12:15 PM My mother lives in assisted living and complains about the food as well. I think what she fails to appreciate is that the kitchen is serving a couple hundred people, all of whom are old and have some dietary issues. The kitchen is obviously likely to produce fairly bland food. They cannot produce a lot of different meals to suit everyone. They offer 2 choices for all meals and will make something different like a sandwich if folks decline both choices. It is a problem for my mother because she was a good cook and she misses the things she was used to. However, her health issues are such that her diet needs to be fairly well restricted. She was also used to coming to our house for Sunday dinners but my sister insisted she move into a building that was closer to her so it is a half hour drive now to pick her up. Round trip to pick her up and take her back is about 2 hours total. I do it about once each month but not every Sunday now that she is so far away. Prior to that she was about 5 minutes away from us. I don't think my sister has her for dinner more than once or twice each year. I would try to move her closer but that would be hard on mom too as she has been there several years now and knows some of the other residents. A no win scenario. RB ___ http://www.okiebenz.com To search list archives http://www.okiebenz.com/archive/ To Unsubscribe or change delivery options go to: http://mail.okiebenz.com/mailman/listinfo/mercedes_okiebenz.com ___ http://www.okiebenz.com To search list archives http://www.okiebenz.com/archive/ To Unsubscribe or change delivery options go to: http://mail.okiebenz.com/mailman/listinfo/mercedes_okiebenz.com
Re: [MBZ] OT:Covid 19 Podcast
Having aging parents and keeping siblings involved can get tricky. I was lucky in the sense that my brother and sister both lived within minutes of my Mom’s house and later her assisted living facility. They pretty much tag-teamed each other for her needs which didn’t tax either one of them a great deal. Unfortunately, I lived out of state later in her life, so I was limited to visits when I was in town and regular phone calls. That being said, when the wife and I were first married we lived next door to her and I pretty well took care of all her needs at that time. My brother and sister were both starting families then so they were slammed. It worked out well for all of us and everyone was happy with the arrangements. -D > On Mar 18, 2020, at 12:15 PM, Randy Bennell via Mercedes > wrote: > > On 18/03/2020 10:51 AM, Floyd Thursby via Mercedes wrote: >> Some family would sue the facility for not providing adequate nutrition, >> even though they are the ones making the situation happen, so there's that. >> >> My dad was in one of those places and called the state elder abuse office or >> nursing home oversight office or whatever, complaining about the "g--d--- >> garbage they are feeding me here." So an inspector comes out, finds no >> issue, goes to talk to him and it turns out someone messed up and didn't >> give him whatever special meal he wanted to replace whatever was on the menu >> that day. He took his food quite seriously, though he would have been happy >> with a piece of meat, boiled potatoes, and boiled green beans 3X/day... >> >> --FT > > > My mother lives in assisted living and complains about the food as well. I > think what she fails to appreciate is that the kitchen is serving a couple > hundred people, all of whom are old and have some dietary issues. The kitchen > is obviously likely to produce fairly bland food. They cannot produce a lot > of different meals to suit everyone. They offer 2 choices for all meals and > will make something different like a sandwich if folks decline both choices. > It is a problem for my mother because she was a good cook and she misses the > things she was used to. However, her health issues are such that her diet > needs to be fairly well restricted. > > She was also used to coming to our house for Sunday dinners but my sister > insisted she move into a building that was closer to her so it is a half hour > drive now to pick her up. Round trip to pick her up and take her back is > about 2 hours total. I do it about once each month but not every Sunday now > that she is so far away. Prior to that she was about 5 minutes away from us. > I don't think my sister has her for dinner more than once or twice each year. > I would try to move her closer but that would be hard on mom too as she has > been there several years now and knows some of the other residents. A no win > scenario. > > RB > > > ___ > http://www.okiebenz.com > > To search list archives http://www.okiebenz.com/archive/ > > To Unsubscribe or change delivery options go to: > http://mail.okiebenz.com/mailman/listinfo/mercedes_okiebenz.com > ___ http://www.okiebenz.com To search list archives http://www.okiebenz.com/archive/ To Unsubscribe or change delivery options go to: http://mail.okiebenz.com/mailman/listinfo/mercedes_okiebenz.com
Re: [MBZ] OT:Covid 19 Podcast
On 18/03/2020 10:51 AM, Floyd Thursby via Mercedes wrote: Some family would sue the facility for not providing adequate nutrition, even though they are the ones making the situation happen, so there's that. My dad was in one of those places and called the state elder abuse office or nursing home oversight office or whatever, complaining about the "g--d--- garbage they are feeding me here." So an inspector comes out, finds no issue, goes to talk to him and it turns out someone messed up and didn't give him whatever special meal he wanted to replace whatever was on the menu that day. He took his food quite seriously, though he would have been happy with a piece of meat, boiled potatoes, and boiled green beans 3X/day... --FT My mother lives in assisted living and complains about the food as well. I think what she fails to appreciate is that the kitchen is serving a couple hundred people, all of whom are old and have some dietary issues. The kitchen is obviously likely to produce fairly bland food. They cannot produce a lot of different meals to suit everyone. They offer 2 choices for all meals and will make something different like a sandwich if folks decline both choices. It is a problem for my mother because she was a good cook and she misses the things she was used to. However, her health issues are such that her diet needs to be fairly well restricted. She was also used to coming to our house for Sunday dinners but my sister insisted she move into a building that was closer to her so it is a half hour drive now to pick her up. Round trip to pick her up and take her back is about 2 hours total. I do it about once each month but not every Sunday now that she is so far away. Prior to that she was about 5 minutes away from us. I don't think my sister has her for dinner more than once or twice each year. I would try to move her closer but that would be hard on mom too as she has been there several years now and knows some of the other residents. A no win scenario. RB ___ http://www.okiebenz.com To search list archives http://www.okiebenz.com/archive/ To Unsubscribe or change delivery options go to: http://mail.okiebenz.com/mailman/listinfo/mercedes_okiebenz.com
Re: [MBZ] OT:Covid 19 Podcast
Good point. We had fought with her about this in the past when she was living alone and never won. My sister was tasked with getting her provisions, so she just wouldn’t buy any. Mom would get friends to swing by and drop off candy for her. We couldn’t figure out how she got it until my sister dropped in one day at a different time and caught her with one of her friends red handed. -D > On Mar 18, 2020, at 11:51 AM, Floyd Thursby via Mercedes > wrote: > > Some family would sue the facility for not providing adequate nutrition, even > though they are the ones making the situation happen, so there's that. > > My dad was in one of those places and called the state elder abuse office or > nursing home oversight office or whatever, complaining about the "g--d--- > garbage they are feeding me here." So an inspector comes out, finds no issue, > goes to talk to him and it turns out someone messed up and didn't give him > whatever special meal he wanted to replace whatever was on the menu that day. > He took his food quite seriously, though he would have been happy with a > piece of meat, boiled potatoes, and boiled green beans 3X/day... > > --FT > > On 3/18/20 11:35 AM, Dan Penoff via Mercedes wrote: >> At that age does it really matter? >> >> Sounds like when my Mom was in assisted living. She loved to eat candy. We >> would bring her stuff all the time and I guess she plowed through it as soon >> as she got it. >> >> My brother, the corporate banker who is all business, was her >> conservator/guardian, whatever they call it. One day he gets summoned to the >> facility’s administrator’s office. The administrator is there with the staff >> dietician. They wail on him about all the candy she eats and that she’s not >> eating regular meals as a result (she never ate regular meal there, anyway. >> She was reclusive as heck and refused to go to the dining room.) >> >> “So she’s 80+ years old. Is she in poor health as a result?” >> >> “Well, no, not really." >> >> “Then let her eat candy or whatever she wants.” >> >> >> >> Never heard another word about it. We continued to take her candy, and she >> lived a long life and went out in her sleep. >> >> -D >> >>> On Mar 18, 2020, at 11:23 AM, Curt Raymond via Mercedes >>> wrote: >>> >>> If we're talking about even a 1% mortality rate wouldn't China be staring >>> down around 10 million dead? >>> At some point its probably difficult to quantify exactly what people died >>> of. Especially in the elderly population some (many?) of these people were >>> going to die soon anyway. >>> >>> Angie's grandmother lives in assisted living, she's 90. She was telling >>> Angie that at night they're not supposed to leave their rooms but they've >>> been sneaking out to play cards. Probably not the safest thing to do but a >>> good thing for their mental health. >>> >>> -Curt >>> >> >> ___ >> http://www.okiebenz.com >> >> To search list archives http://www.okiebenz.com/archive/ >> >> To Unsubscribe or change delivery options go to: >> http://mail.okiebenz.com/mailman/listinfo/mercedes_okiebenz.com >> > -- > --FT > > > ___ > http://www.okiebenz.com > > To search list archives http://www.okiebenz.com/archive/ > > To Unsubscribe or change delivery options go to: > http://mail.okiebenz.com/mailman/listinfo/mercedes_okiebenz.com > ___ http://www.okiebenz.com To search list archives http://www.okiebenz.com/archive/ To Unsubscribe or change delivery options go to: http://mail.okiebenz.com/mailman/listinfo/mercedes_okiebenz.com
Re: [MBZ] OT:Covid 19 Podcast
Some family would sue the facility for not providing adequate nutrition, even though they are the ones making the situation happen, so there's that. My dad was in one of those places and called the state elder abuse office or nursing home oversight office or whatever, complaining about the "g--d--- garbage they are feeding me here." So an inspector comes out, finds no issue, goes to talk to him and it turns out someone messed up and didn't give him whatever special meal he wanted to replace whatever was on the menu that day. He took his food quite seriously, though he would have been happy with a piece of meat, boiled potatoes, and boiled green beans 3X/day... --FT On 3/18/20 11:35 AM, Dan Penoff via Mercedes wrote: At that age does it really matter? Sounds like when my Mom was in assisted living. She loved to eat candy. We would bring her stuff all the time and I guess she plowed through it as soon as she got it. My brother, the corporate banker who is all business, was her conservator/guardian, whatever they call it. One day he gets summoned to the facility’s administrator’s office. The administrator is there with the staff dietician. They wail on him about all the candy she eats and that she’s not eating regular meals as a result (she never ate regular meal there, anyway. She was reclusive as heck and refused to go to the dining room.) “So she’s 80+ years old. Is she in poor health as a result?” “Well, no, not really." “Then let her eat candy or whatever she wants.” Never heard another word about it. We continued to take her candy, and she lived a long life and went out in her sleep. -D On Mar 18, 2020, at 11:23 AM, Curt Raymond via Mercedes wrote: If we're talking about even a 1% mortality rate wouldn't China be staring down around 10 million dead? At some point its probably difficult to quantify exactly what people died of. Especially in the elderly population some (many?) of these people were going to die soon anyway. Angie's grandmother lives in assisted living, she's 90. She was telling Angie that at night they're not supposed to leave their rooms but they've been sneaking out to play cards. Probably not the safest thing to do but a good thing for their mental health. -Curt ___ http://www.okiebenz.com To search list archives http://www.okiebenz.com/archive/ To Unsubscribe or change delivery options go to: http://mail.okiebenz.com/mailman/listinfo/mercedes_okiebenz.com -- --FT ___ http://www.okiebenz.com To search list archives http://www.okiebenz.com/archive/ To Unsubscribe or change delivery options go to: http://mail.okiebenz.com/mailman/listinfo/mercedes_okiebenz.com
Re: [MBZ] OT:Covid 19 Podcast
At that age does it really matter? Sounds like when my Mom was in assisted living. She loved to eat candy. We would bring her stuff all the time and I guess she plowed through it as soon as she got it. My brother, the corporate banker who is all business, was her conservator/guardian, whatever they call it. One day he gets summoned to the facility’s administrator’s office. The administrator is there with the staff dietician. They wail on him about all the candy she eats and that she’s not eating regular meals as a result (she never ate regular meal there, anyway. She was reclusive as heck and refused to go to the dining room.) “So she’s 80+ years old. Is she in poor health as a result?” “Well, no, not really." “Then let her eat candy or whatever she wants.” Never heard another word about it. We continued to take her candy, and she lived a long life and went out in her sleep. -D > On Mar 18, 2020, at 11:23 AM, Curt Raymond via Mercedes > wrote: > > If we're talking about even a 1% mortality rate wouldn't China be staring > down around 10 million dead? > At some point its probably difficult to quantify exactly what people died of. > Especially in the elderly population some (many?) of these people were going > to die soon anyway. > > Angie's grandmother lives in assisted living, she's 90. She was telling Angie > that at night they're not supposed to leave their rooms but they've been > sneaking out to play cards. Probably not the safest thing to do but a good > thing for their mental health. > > -Curt > ___ http://www.okiebenz.com To search list archives http://www.okiebenz.com/archive/ To Unsubscribe or change delivery options go to: http://mail.okiebenz.com/mailman/listinfo/mercedes_okiebenz.com
Re: [MBZ] OT:Covid 19 Podcast
If we're talking about even a 1% mortality rate wouldn't China be staring down around 10 million dead? At some point its probably difficult to quantify exactly what people died of. Especially in the elderly population some (many?) of these people were going to die soon anyway. Angie's grandmother lives in assisted living, she's 90. She was telling Angie that at night they're not supposed to leave their rooms but they've been sneaking out to play cards. Probably not the safest thing to do but a good thing for their mental health. -Curt On Wednesday, March 18, 2020, 11:14:21 AM EDT, Meade Dillon via Mercedes wrote: So I took a listen, and here's my response. These guys (and many others) are predicting 1 - 1.5 million dead in USA. How in the world did China get by with just a few thousand dead, when they completely bungled the initial reaction and did not start their quarantines until 2 months after the virus started spreading? Have they concealed the true number of dead? Yes, I think they have more dead than are reported, but I don't think they have 3-4 million dead. This is a reality that is not addressed in the podcast. By all means, we need to beef up our health system capacity (ICU / ventilators) to deal with those afflicted, and isolate vulnerable populations (elderly and other medical conditions) but I am still convinced that shutting down the whole country and bringing about an economic recession is an over-reaction. - Max Charleston SC On Tue, Mar 17, 2020 at 12:50 PM Floyd Thursby via Mercedes < mercedes@okiebenz.com> wrote: > Listen to this then get back to us. The math (and science they present) > is not too hard to understand, and they talk about how "flattening the > curve" MIGHT change the transmission/infection/fatality rate but it > could still result in 1-1.5mil US fatalities (that would be like 0.3% > which is low compared to other places, apparently) based on current > knowledge and projections, which admittedly are not well-known at this > point but the people who are experts in this stuff are not expecting an > easy ride. These guys are not hyping the situation, but clearly have > their own personal human concerns, just reporting known facts and > projections based on what is known right now. > > The virus will persist in the population for several months, and there > are suggestions that re-infection is possible even if you survive a > first bout. The system is going to be overwhelmed in the next few > weeks, if not sooner, and anyone in a higher-risk group is not going to > be treated because there will be no resources to do so. > > I hope they are wrong but it sure doesn't seem so based on experience in > other places, and human nature to ignore reality. > > https://peterattiamd.com/covid-19-update-03152020/ > > --FT > > On 3/17/20 12:27 PM, Rick Knoble via Mercedes wrote: > > https://youtu.be/TOMJjkRtqAw > > > > This guy makes a bit of sense. Are there any math nerds or medical > > professionals that care to listen and comment? The logic and > > statistics make sense to me. > > > > Rick > > > > > > ___ > > http://www.okiebenz.com > > > > To search list archives http://www.okiebenz.com/archive/ > > > > To Unsubscribe or change delivery options go to: > > http://mail.okiebenz.com/mailman/listinfo/mercedes_okiebenz.com > > > -- > --FT > > ___ > http://www.okiebenz.com > > To search list archives http://www.okiebenz.com/archive/ > > To Unsubscribe or change delivery options go to: > http://mail.okiebenz.com/mailman/listinfo/mercedes_okiebenz.com > > ___ http://www.okiebenz.com To search list archives http://www.okiebenz.com/archive/ To Unsubscribe or change delivery options go to: http://mail.okiebenz.com/mailman/listinfo/mercedes_okiebenz.com ___ http://www.okiebenz.com To search list archives http://www.okiebenz.com/archive/ To Unsubscribe or change delivery options go to: http://mail.okiebenz.com/mailman/listinfo/mercedes_okiebenz.com
Re: [MBZ] OT:Covid 19 Podcast
So I took a listen, and here's my response. These guys (and many others) are predicting 1 - 1.5 million dead in USA. How in the world did China get by with just a few thousand dead, when they completely bungled the initial reaction and did not start their quarantines until 2 months after the virus started spreading? Have they concealed the true number of dead? Yes, I think they have more dead than are reported, but I don't think they have 3-4 million dead. This is a reality that is not addressed in the podcast. By all means, we need to beef up our health system capacity (ICU / ventilators) to deal with those afflicted, and isolate vulnerable populations (elderly and other medical conditions) but I am still convinced that shutting down the whole country and bringing about an economic recession is an over-reaction. - Max Charleston SC On Tue, Mar 17, 2020 at 12:50 PM Floyd Thursby via Mercedes < mercedes@okiebenz.com> wrote: > Listen to this then get back to us. The math (and science they present) > is not too hard to understand, and they talk about how "flattening the > curve" MIGHT change the transmission/infection/fatality rate but it > could still result in 1-1.5mil US fatalities (that would be like 0.3% > which is low compared to other places, apparently) based on current > knowledge and projections, which admittedly are not well-known at this > point but the people who are experts in this stuff are not expecting an > easy ride. These guys are not hyping the situation, but clearly have > their own personal human concerns, just reporting known facts and > projections based on what is known right now. > > The virus will persist in the population for several months, and there > are suggestions that re-infection is possible even if you survive a > first bout. The system is going to be overwhelmed in the next few > weeks, if not sooner, and anyone in a higher-risk group is not going to > be treated because there will be no resources to do so. > > I hope they are wrong but it sure doesn't seem so based on experience in > other places, and human nature to ignore reality. > > https://peterattiamd.com/covid-19-update-03152020/ > > --FT > > On 3/17/20 12:27 PM, Rick Knoble via Mercedes wrote: > > https://youtu.be/TOMJjkRtqAw > > > > This guy makes a bit of sense. Are there any math nerds or medical > > professionals that care to listen and comment? The logic and > > statistics make sense to me. > > > > Rick > > > > > > ___ > > http://www.okiebenz.com > > > > To search list archives http://www.okiebenz.com/archive/ > > > > To Unsubscribe or change delivery options go to: > > http://mail.okiebenz.com/mailman/listinfo/mercedes_okiebenz.com > > > -- > --FT > > ___ > http://www.okiebenz.com > > To search list archives http://www.okiebenz.com/archive/ > > To Unsubscribe or change delivery options go to: > http://mail.okiebenz.com/mailman/listinfo/mercedes_okiebenz.com > > ___ http://www.okiebenz.com To search list archives http://www.okiebenz.com/archive/ To Unsubscribe or change delivery options go to: http://mail.okiebenz.com/mailman/listinfo/mercedes_okiebenz.com
Re: [MBZ] OT:Covid 19 Podcast
Listen to this then get back to us. The math (and science they present) is not too hard to understand, and they talk about how "flattening the curve" MIGHT change the transmission/infection/fatality rate but it could still result in 1-1.5mil US fatalities (that would be like 0.3% which is low compared to other places, apparently) based on current knowledge and projections, which admittedly are not well-known at this point but the people who are experts in this stuff are not expecting an easy ride. These guys are not hyping the situation, but clearly have their own personal human concerns, just reporting known facts and projections based on what is known right now. The virus will persist in the population for several months, and there are suggestions that re-infection is possible even if you survive a first bout. The system is going to be overwhelmed in the next few weeks, if not sooner, and anyone in a higher-risk group is not going to be treated because there will be no resources to do so. I hope they are wrong but it sure doesn't seem so based on experience in other places, and human nature to ignore reality. https://peterattiamd.com/covid-19-update-03152020/ --FT On 3/17/20 12:27 PM, Rick Knoble via Mercedes wrote: https://youtu.be/TOMJjkRtqAw This guy makes a bit of sense. Are there any math nerds or medical professionals that care to listen and comment? The logic and statistics make sense to me. Rick ___ http://www.okiebenz.com To search list archives http://www.okiebenz.com/archive/ To Unsubscribe or change delivery options go to: http://mail.okiebenz.com/mailman/listinfo/mercedes_okiebenz.com -- --FT ___ http://www.okiebenz.com To search list archives http://www.okiebenz.com/archive/ To Unsubscribe or change delivery options go to: http://mail.okiebenz.com/mailman/listinfo/mercedes_okiebenz.com
[MBZ] OT:Covid 19 Podcast
https://youtu.be/TOMJjkRtqAwThis guy makes a bit of sense. Are there any math nerds or medical professionals that care to listen and comment? The logic and statistics make sense to me.Rick ___ http://www.okiebenz.com To search list archives http://www.okiebenz.com/archive/ To Unsubscribe or change delivery options go to: http://mail.okiebenz.com/mailman/listinfo/mercedes_okiebenz.com
