Re: [meteorite-list] Science of Global Climate Modeling Confirmed byDiscoveries on Mars Cognitive Dissonance
Astronomers concluded it was axis tilt behind Martian climate change, and then after the fact used computer models to predict what already happened. On Earth, human-generated carbon dioxide is assumed to be the main driver of climate change. Computer models that can't predict the weather for more than three days in advance were used to predict climate change hundreds of years into the future. Is one of these premises false? The Earth has been warming up for the last 18,000 years, possibly from astronomical factors such as orbital variation, axial tilt variation, Milankovitch cycles, etc. If this study really vindicated global climate modeling, wouldn't it have concluded the Earth's climate change is also due to changing astronomical factors? This seems like an obvious contradiction. Sorry for the double post! Phil Whitmer Joshua Tree Earth Space Museum - Original Message - From: Ron Baalke baa...@zagami.jpl.nasa.gov To: Meteorite Mailing List meteorite-list@meteoritecentral.com Sent: Wednesday, October 17, 2012 6:05 PM Subject: [meteorite-list] Science of Global Climate Modeling Confirmed byDiscoveries on Mars NEWS RELEASE FROM THE PLANETARY SCIENCE INSTITUTE FROM: Alan Fischer Public Information Officer Planetary Science Institute 520-382-0411 520-622-6300 fisc...@psi.edu Science of Global Climate Modeling Confirmed by Discoveries on Mars Oct. 16, 2012, Tucson, Ariz. and Reno, Nev. -- Scientific modeling methods that predicted climate change on Earth have been found to be accurate on Mars as well, according to a paper presented at an international planetary sciences conference Tuesday. An international team of researchers from the Planetary Science Institute in Tucson, working with French colleagues, found that an unusual concentration of glacial features on Mars matches predictions made by global climate computerized models, in terms of both age and location. PSI Senior Scientist William K. Hartmann led the team, which included Francois Forget (Université Paris), who did the Martian climate modeling, and Veronique Ansan and Nicolas Mangold (Université de Nantes) and Daniel Berman (PSI), all of who analyzed spacecraft measurements regarding the glaciers. Some public figures imply that modeling of global climate change on Earth is 'junk science,' but if climate models can explain features observed on other planets, then the models must have at least some validity, said team leader Hartmann. Hartmann presented the report, Science of Global Climate Modeling: Confirmation from Discoveries On Mars, at the annual meeting of the Division of Planetary Sciences of the American Astronomical Society in Reno, Nev. The scientific team reached their conclusions by combining four different aspects of Martian geological mapping and Martian climate science in recent years. They noted that the climate models, the presence of glaciers, the ages of the glacial surface layers, and radar confirmation of ice in same general area, all gave consistent results - that the glaciers formed in a specific region of Mars, due to unusual climate circumstances, just as indicated by the climate model. The work has a long background. As early 1993, astronomers analyzed the changing tilt of Mars' rotational axis and found that during high-tilt Martian episodes, the axis tilt can exceed 45 degrees. Under this extreme condition, the summer hemisphere is strongly tilted toward the sun, and Mars' polar ice cap in that hemisphere evaporates, increasing water vapor in the Martian air, thus increasing the chances for snowfall in the dark, cold, winter hemisphere. The last such episodes happened on Mars 5 million to 20 million years ago. By 2001-2006, various French and American researchers applied the global climate computer models to study this effect. The computer programs were originally developed for planet Earth to estimate climate effects, from hurricane paths to CO2 greenhouse warming. Planetary scientists simply applied the Martian topography, atmosphere, and gravity, in order to run the computer calculations for Mars. The calculations indicated a strong concentration of winter snow and ice in a mid-latitude southern region of Mars, just east of a huge Martian impact basin named Hellas. At the same time, the PSI scientists independently discovered an unusual concentration of glacial features in a 40-mile-wide crater named Greg centered in the same region. Their analysis showed that the surface layers of the glaciers formed at the same time as the predicted climate extremes, about 5 million to 20 million years ago. The bottom line is that the global climate models indicate that the last few intense deposits of ice occurred about 5 million to 15 million years ago, virtually centered on Greg crater, and that's just where the spacecraft data reveal glaciers whose surface layers date from that time, Hartmann said. If global climate models indicate specific concentration of ice-rich
Re: [meteorite-list] Science of Global Climate Modeling Confirmed byDiscoveries on Mars Cognitive Dissonance
Hi Phil and all, You mentioned other factors in your post but I'll include cycles in the Sun also can have a big effect on weather as well as the ones you mentioned. Pretty hard to study something as old as the Earth system by observers who are here only a very short span of that time. There have been many heating up periods followed by colder cycles and probably will be for eons. AL Mitterling Quoting dorifry dori...@embarqmail.com: Astronomers concluded it was axis tilt behind Martian climate change, and then after the fact used computer models to predict what already happened. On Earth, human-generated carbon dioxide is assumed to be the main driver of climate change. Computer models that can't predict the weather for more than three days in advance were used to predict climate change hundreds of years into the future. Is one of these premises false? The Earth has been warming up for the last 18,000 years, possibly from astronomical factors such as orbital variation, axial tilt variation, Milankovitch cycles, etc. If this study really vindicated global climate modeling, wouldn't it have concluded the Earth's climate change is also due to changing astronomical factors? This seems like an obvious contradiction. Sorry for the double post! Phil Whitmer Joshua Tree Earth Space Museum - Original Message - From: Ron Baalke baa...@zagami.jpl.nasa.gov To: Meteorite Mailing List meteorite-list@meteoritecentral.com Sent: Wednesday, October 17, 2012 6:05 PM Subject: [meteorite-list] Science of Global Climate Modeling Confirmed byDiscoveries on Mars NEWS RELEASE FROM THE PLANETARY SCIENCE INSTITUTE FROM: Alan Fischer Public Information Officer Planetary Science Institute 520-382-0411 520-622-6300 fisc...@psi.edu Science of Global Climate Modeling Confirmed by Discoveries on Mars Oct. 16, 2012, Tucson, Ariz. and Reno, Nev. -- Scientific modeling methods that predicted climate change on Earth have been found to be accurate on Mars as well, according to a paper presented at an international planetary sciences conference Tuesday. An international team of researchers from the Planetary Science Institute in Tucson, working with French colleagues, found that an unusual concentration of glacial features on Mars matches predictions made by global climate computerized models, in terms of both age and location. PSI Senior Scientist William K. Hartmann led the team, which included Francois Forget (Université Paris), who did the Martian climate modeling, and Veronique Ansan and Nicolas Mangold (Université de Nantes) and Daniel Berman (PSI), all of who analyzed spacecraft measurements regarding the glaciers. Some public figures imply that modeling of global climate change on Earth is 'junk science,' but if climate models can explain features observed on other planets, then the models must have at least some validity, said team leader Hartmann. Hartmann presented the report, Science of Global Climate Modeling: Confirmation from Discoveries On Mars, at the annual meeting of the Division of Planetary Sciences of the American Astronomical Society in Reno, Nev. The scientific team reached their conclusions by combining four different aspects of Martian geological mapping and Martian climate science in recent years. They noted that the climate models, the presence of glaciers, the ages of the glacial surface layers, and radar confirmation of ice in same general area, all gave consistent results - that the glaciers formed in a specific region of Mars, due to unusual climate circumstances, just as indicated by the climate model. The work has a long background. As early 1993, astronomers analyzed the changing tilt of Mars' rotational axis and found that during high-tilt Martian episodes, the axis tilt can exceed 45 degrees. Under this extreme condition, the summer hemisphere is strongly tilted toward the sun, and Mars' polar ice cap in that hemisphere evaporates, increasing water vapor in the Martian air, thus increasing the chances for snowfall in the dark, cold, winter hemisphere. The last such episodes happened on Mars 5 million to 20 million years ago. By 2001-2006, various French and American researchers applied the global climate computer models to study this effect. The computer programs were originally developed for planet Earth to estimate climate effects, from hurricane paths to CO2 greenhouse warming. Planetary scientists simply applied the Martian topography, atmosphere, and gravity, in order to run the computer calculations for Mars. The calculations indicated a strong concentration of winter snow and ice in a mid-latitude southern region of Mars, just east of a huge Martian impact basin named Hellas. At the same time, the PSI scientists independently discovered an unusual concentration of glacial features in a 40-mile-wide crater named Greg centered in the same region. Their analysis showed that the surface layers of the glaciers formed at the same time as the
[meteorite-list] Science of Global Climate Modeling Confirmed byDiscoveries on Mars Cognitive Dissonance
Hello Al, There are also volcanoes. The Toba Volcano (Indonesia) super eruption 74,000 years ago nearly wiped out humans, there were only a few thousand Homo Sapiens left according to genetic analyses and other studies. People couldn't survive the volcanic winter. Phil Whitmer Joshua Tree Earth Space Museum --- Hi Phil and all, You mentioned other factors in your post but I'll include cycles in the Sun also can have a big effect on weather as well as the ones you mentioned. Pretty hard to study something as old as the Earth system by observers who are here only a very short span of that time. There have been many heating up periods followed by colder cycles and probably will be for eons. AL Mitterling __ Visit the Archives at http://www.meteoritecentral.com/mailing-list-archives.html Meteorite-list mailing list Meteorite-list@meteoritecentral.com http://six.pairlist.net/mailman/listinfo/meteorite-list
