Re: [Nanog] ATT VP: Internet to hit capacity by 2010

2008-04-23 Thread michael.dillon
If the content senders do not want this dipping and levelling off, then they will have to foot the bill for the network capacity. That's kind of the funniest thing I've seen today, it sounds so much like an Ed Whitacre. Then Ed learns that the people he'd like to charge for the

Re: [Nanog] ATT VP: Internet to hit capacity by 2010

2008-04-23 Thread Williams, Marc
: Tuesday, April 22, 2008 9:07 PM To: nanog@nanog.org Subject: Re: [Nanog] ATT VP: Internet to hit capacity by 2010 ...is the first H.264 encoder .. designed by specifically for ... environments. It natively supports the RTSP streaming media protocol. can stream

Re: [Nanog] ATT VP: Internet to hit capacity by 2010

2008-04-23 Thread Marshall Eubanks
unicast streams feeding an MCU. Rambling now, but happy to answer your question. -Original Message- From: Marc Manthey [mailto:[EMAIL PROTECTED] Sent: Tuesday, April 22, 2008 9:07 PM To: nanog@nanog.org Subject: Re: [Nanog] ATT VP: Internet to hit capacity by 2010

Re: [Nanog] ATT VP: Internet to hit capacity by 2010

2008-04-22 Thread michael.dillon
I think you're too high there! MPEG2 SD is around 4-6Mbps, MPEG4 SD is around 2-4Mbps, MPEG4 HD is anywhere from 8 to 20Mbps, depending on how much wow factor the broadcaster is trying to give. Nope, ATSC is 19 (more accurately 19.28) megabits per second. So why would anyone plug

Re: [Nanog] ATT VP: Internet to hit capacity by 2010

2008-04-22 Thread Dorn Hetzel
It's certainly not reasonable to assume the same video goes to all consumers, but on the other hand, there *is* plenty of video that goes to a *lot* of consumers. I don't really need my own personal unicast copy of the bits that make up an episode of BSG or whatever. I would hope that the future

Re: [Nanog] ATT VP: Internet to hit capacity by 2010

2008-04-22 Thread Brandon Butterworth
So why would anyone plug an ATSC feed directly into the Internet? Because we can. One day ISPs might do multicast and it might become cheap enough to deliver to the home. If we don't then they probably will never bother fixing those two problems I've been multicasting the BBCs channels in the

Re: [Nanog] ATT VP: Internet to hit capacity by 2010

2008-04-22 Thread Marshall Eubanks
4:26 PM To: nanog@nanog.org Subject: Re: [Nanog] ATT VP: Internet to hit capacity by 2010 snip I'm going to have to say that that's much higher than we're actually going to see. You have to remember that there's not a ton of compression going on in that. We're looking to start pushing HD

Re: [Nanog] ATT VP: Internet to hit capacity by 2010

2008-04-22 Thread Joe Greco
All this talk of exafloods seems to ignore the basic economics of IP networks. No ISP is going to allow subscribers to pull in 8gigs per day of video stream. And no broadcaster is going to pay for the bandwidth needed to pump out all those ATSC streams. And nobody is going to stick IP

Re: [Nanog] ATT VP: Internet to hit capacity by 2010

2008-04-22 Thread Joe Greco
On Tue, Apr 22, 2008 at 2:02 PM, Joe Greco [EMAIL PROTECTED] wrote: As far as I am concerned the killer application for IP multicast is *NOT* video, it's market data feeds from NYSE, NASDAQ, CBOT, etc. You can go compare the relative successes of Yahoo! Finance and YouTube. While it

Re: [Nanog] ATT VP: Internet to hit capacity by 2010

2008-04-22 Thread Bruce Curtis
On Apr 22, 2008, at 9:15 AM, Marc Manthey wrote: Am 22.04.2008 um 16:05 schrieb Bruce Curtis: p2p isn't the only way to deliver content overnight, content could also be delivered via multicast overnight. http://www.intercast.com/Eng/Index.asp http://kazam.com/Eng/About/About.jsp hmm

Re: [Nanog] ATT VP: Internet to hit capacity by 2010

2008-04-22 Thread Joe Greco
IP multicast does not help you when you have 1000 subscribers all pulling in 1000 unique streams. Yes, that's potentially a problem. That doesn't mean that multicast can not be leveraged to handle prerecorded material, but it does suggest that you could really use a TiVo-like

Re: [Nanog] ATT VP: Internet to hit capacity by 2010

2008-04-22 Thread Adrian Chadd
On Tue, Apr 22, 2008, Marc Manthey wrote: hmm sorry i did not get it IMHO multicast ist uselese for VOD , correct ? As a delivery mechanism to end-users? Sure. As a way of feeding content to edge boxes which then serve VOD? Maybe not so useless. But then, its been years since I toyed with

Re: [Nanog] ATT VP: Internet to hit capacity by 2010

2008-04-22 Thread Joe Abley
On 22 Apr 2008, at 12:47, Joe Greco wrote: You mean a computer? Like the one that runs file-sharing clients? Like the one that nobody really wants to watch large quantities of television on? Perhaps more like the mac mini that's plugged into the big plasma screen in the living room? Or

Re: [Nanog] ATT VP: Internet to hit capacity by 2010

2008-04-22 Thread Williams, Marc
typically host well over 1000 clients -Original Message- From: Brandon Galbraith [mailto:[EMAIL PROTECTED] Sent: Tuesday, April 22, 2008 1:51 PM To: Joe Abley Cc: nanog@nanog.org; Joe Greco Subject: Re: [Nanog] ATT VP: Internet to hit capacity by 2010 On 4/22/08, Joe Abley [EMAIL

Re: [Nanog] ATT VP: Internet to hit capacity by 2010

2008-04-22 Thread Joe Greco
On 22 Apr 2008, at 12:47, Joe Greco wrote: You mean a computer? Like the one that runs file-sharing clients? Like the one that nobody really wants to watch large quantities of television on? Perhaps more like the mac mini that's plugged into the big plasma screen in the living

Re: [Nanog] ATT VP: Internet to hit capacity by 2010

2008-04-22 Thread Marc Manthey
...is the first H.264 encoder .. designed by specifically for ... environments. It natively supports the RTSP streaming media protocol. can stream directly to . hi marc so your oskar can rtsp multicast stream over ipv6 and quicktime not , or was this just an

Re: [Nanog] ATT VP: Internet to hit capacity by 2010

2008-04-21 Thread Sean Donelan
On Mon, 21 Apr 2008, Paul Ferguson wrote: I looked around for text or video from Mr. Cicconi at the Westminster eForum but can't find anything. www.westminsterforumprojects.co.uk/eforum/default.aspx For what it's worth, I agree with Ryan Paul's summary of the issues here: The rest of the

Re: [Nanog] ATT VP: Internet to hit capacity by 2010

2008-04-21 Thread Paul Ferguson
-BEGIN PGP SIGNED MESSAGE- Hash: SHA1 - -- Paul Ferguson [EMAIL PROTECTED] wrote: Hmmm. Who exactly is The Internet Innovation Alliance? Unfortunately, their website does not say: [...] As someone pointed out to me privately, this URL outlines it's membership:

Re: [Nanog] ATT VP: Internet to hit capacity by 2010

2008-04-21 Thread John Levine
Hmmm. Who exactly is The Internet Innovation Alliance? http://www.internetinnovation.org/ The domain is registered to Larry Irving in D.C., who was an assistant commerce secretary in the Clinton administration. A little googlage finds this op-ed piece from last May.

Re: [Nanog] ATT VP: Internet to hit capacity by 2010

2008-04-21 Thread Sean Donelan
On Mon, 21 Apr 2008, Paul Ferguson wrote: But given the content there (generous references to the upcoming Internet exaflood apocalypse), I would guess they are either compromised of telcos and ISPs or telco lobbyists or both. :-) Thank goodness anti-virus companies never hype security threats

Re: [Nanog] ATT VP: Internet to hit capacity by 2010

2008-04-21 Thread Henry Linneweh
, April 21, 2008 11:53:41 AM Subject: Re: [Nanog] ATT VP: Internet to hit capacity by 2010 On Mon, 21 Apr 2008, Paul Ferguson wrote: But given the content there (generous references to the upcoming Internet exaflood apocalypse), I would guess they are either compromised of telcos and ISPs or telco

Re: [Nanog] ATT VP: Internet to hit capacity by 2010

2008-04-21 Thread Scott Weeks
--- [EMAIL PROTECTED] wrote: The most interesting part is the author bios at the end: Bruce Mehlman was assistant secretary of commerce under President Bush. Larry Irving was assistant secretary of commerce under President Bill Clinton. They are co-chairmen of the

Re: [Nanog] ATT VP: Internet to hit capacity by 2010

2008-04-21 Thread Steve Gibbard
On Mon, 21 Apr 2008, Sean Donelan wrote: The rest of the story? http://www.usatoday.com/tech/products/services/2008-04-20-internet-broadband-traffic-jam_N.htm By 2010, the average household will be using 1.1 terabytes (roughly equal to 1,000 copies of the Encyclopedia Britannica) of

Re: [Nanog] ATT VP: Internet to hit capacity by 2010

2008-04-21 Thread David Coulson
Steve Gibbard wrote: Maybe I just don't spend enough time around the leave the TV on all day demographic. Is that a realistic number? Is there something bigger than HDTV video that ATT expects people to start downloading? I would not be surprised if many households watch more than 10hrs

Re: [Nanog] ATT VP: Internet to hit capacity by 2010

2008-04-21 Thread Chris Adams
Once upon a time, Steve Gibbard [EMAIL PROTECTED] said: iTunes video, which looks perfectly acceptable on my old NTSC TV, is .75 gigabytes per viewable hour. I think HDTV is somewhere around 8 megabits per second (if I'm remembering correctly; I may be wrong about that), which would

Re: [Nanog] ATT VP: Internet to hit capacity by 2010

2008-04-21 Thread Williams, Marc
Why would TV of any sort even touch the 'Internet'. And, no, YouTube is not TV as far as I'm concerned. FWIW: http://www.worldmulticast.com/marketsummary.html ___ NANOG mailing list NANOG@nanog.org http://mailman.nanog.org/mailman/listinfo/nanog

Re: [Nanog] ATT VP: Internet to hit capacity by 2010

2008-04-21 Thread Chris Adams
Once upon a time, Simon Lockhart [EMAIL PROTECTED] said: On Mon Apr 21, 2008 at 02:43:14PM -0500, Chris Adams wrote: You're a little low. ATSC (the over-the-air digital broadcast format) is 19 megabits per second or 8.55 gigabytes per hour. I think you're too high there! MPEG2 SD is

Re: [Nanog] ATT VP: Internet to hit capacity by 2010

2008-04-21 Thread Joe Greco
Steve Gibbard wrote: Maybe I just don't spend enough time around the leave the TV on all day demographic. Is that a realistic number? Is there something bigger than HDTV video that ATT expects people to start downloading? I would not be surprised if many households watch more than

Re: [Nanog] ATT VP: Internet to hit capacity by 2010

2008-04-21 Thread Ric Messier
On Mon, 21 Apr 2008, Chris Adams wrote: Nope, ATSC is 19 (more accurately 19.28) megabits per second. That can carry multiple sub-channels, or it can be used for a single channel. Standard definition DVDs can be up to 10 megabits per second. Both only use MPEG2; MPEG4 can be around half

Re: [Nanog] ATT VP: Internet to hit capacity by 2010

2008-04-21 Thread Dorn Hetzel
My directivo records wads of stuff every day, but they are the same bits that rain down on gazillions of other potential recorders and viewers. Incremental cost to serve one more household, pretty much zero. There are definitely narrowcast applications that don't make sense to broadcast down from

Re: [Nanog] ATT VP: Internet to hit capacity by 2010

2008-04-21 Thread Scott Weeks
--- [EMAIL PROTECTED] wrote: From: Williams, Marc [EMAIL PROTECTED] http://www.worldmulticast.com/marketsummary.html -- We should be careful when discussing IPTV traffic issues. Is it inter-AS or intra-AS traffic? I'd imagine the beginning of

Re: [Nanog] ATT VP: Internet to hit capacity by 2010

2008-04-21 Thread Alex Thurlow
Chris Adams wrote: Once upon a time, Steve Gibbard [EMAIL PROTECTED] said: iTunes video, which looks perfectly acceptable on my old NTSC TV, is .75 gigabytes per viewable hour. I think HDTV is somewhere around 8 megabits per second (if I'm remembering correctly; I may be wrong about that),

Re: [Nanog] ATT VP: Internet to hit capacity by 2010

2008-04-21 Thread WWWhatsup
I am pretty sure he is basing it on this: http://www.internetinnovation.org/tabid/56/articleType/ArticleView/articleId/94/Default.aspx which itself refers to the Nemertes report, issued last November: The Internet Singularity, Delayed: Why Limits in Internet Capacity Will Stifle Innovation on

Re: [Nanog] ATT VP: Internet to hit capacity by 2010

2008-04-20 Thread Ted Fischer
All, Interesting ATT project ... the IP (and voice) world according to ATT, from a New York State of Mind: http://senseable.mit.edu/nyte/index.html Ted At 03:16 PM 4/19/2008, Sean wrote: On Fri, 18 Apr 2008, Scott Weeks wrote: Does anybody know what the basis for Mr. Cicconi's claims

Re: [Nanog] ATT VP: Internet to hit capacity by 2010

2008-04-20 Thread David Conrad
Not to defend ATT or the statement regarding capacity, but... On Apr 20, 2008, at 4:16 AM, Jorge Amodio wrote: The article is full of gaffes, just to mention one Internet exists, thanks to the infrastructure provided by a group of mostly private companies. I suspect this was referencing

Re: [Nanog] ATT VP: Internet to hit capacity by 2010

2008-04-20 Thread Scott Weeks
--- [EMAIL PROTECTED] wrote: From: Sean Donelan [EMAIL PROTECTED] On Fri, 18 Apr 2008, Scott Weeks wrote: Does anybody know what the basis for Mr. Cicconi's claims were (if they even had a basis at all)? Have there been an second reporting sources, or does anyone have a Youtube link of Mr.

Re: [Nanog] ATT VP: Internet to hit capacity by 2010

2008-04-20 Thread Paul Ferguson
-BEGIN PGP SIGNED MESSAGE- Hash: SHA1 - -- Scott Weeks [EMAIL PROTECTED] wrote: I looked around for text or video from Mr. Cicconi at the Westminster eForum but can't find anything. www.westminsterforumprojects.co.uk/eforum/default.aspx For what it's worth, I agree with Ryan Paul's

Re: [Nanog] ATT VP: Internet to hit capacity by 2010

2008-04-20 Thread Paul Wall
On Sat, Apr 19, 2008 at 3:44 PM, Tomas L. Byrnes [EMAIL PROTECTED] wrote: In my experience, ATT(SBC at that time) hit over its effective capacity (over 50% average utilization, and therefore no redundancy) around 2001. Sounds like you're talking about 7018, not 7132 (SBC), and even 7018 is

Re: [Nanog] ATT VP: Internet to hit capacity by 2010

2008-04-20 Thread Randy Bush
Paul Wall wrote: They also tended to manually handle routing decisions as opposed to letting the IGP handle it. Likewise, I'd be interested in implementation specifics of how a network of ATT's caliber could implement backbone redundancy and TE with static routing. atm-2, circuitzilla's

Re: [Nanog] ATT VP: Internet to hit capacity by 2010

2008-04-19 Thread Sean Donelan
On Fri, 18 Apr 2008, Scott Weeks wrote: Does anybody know what the basis for Mr. Cicconi's claims were (if they even had a basis at all)? Have there been an second reporting sources, or does anyone have a Youtube link of Mr. Cicconi's actual statement in context? So far there seems to only be

Re: [Nanog] ATT VP: Internet to hit capacity by 2010

2008-04-19 Thread Jorge Amodio
I believe you have to take in account from whom and where some assertions are coming from. The article is full of gaffes, just to mention one Internet exists, thanks to the infrastructure provided by a group of mostly private companies. AFAIK, most of the telecommunication companies and

Re: [Nanog] ATT VP: Internet to hit capacity by 2010

2008-04-19 Thread Tomas L. Byrnes
, and are easily bankrupted by predatory pricing by the incumbents. -Original Message- From: Sean Donelan [mailto:[EMAIL PROTECTED] Sent: Saturday, April 19, 2008 12:16 PM To: Scott Weeks Cc: nanog@nanog.org Subject: Re: [Nanog] ATT VP: Internet to hit capacity by 2010 On Fri, 18 Apr 2008

Re: [Nanog] ATT VP: Internet to hit capacity by 2010

2008-04-18 Thread Stephen John Smoogen
On Fri, Apr 18, 2008 at 2:15 PM, Scott Francis [EMAIL PROTECTED] wrote: http://www.news.com/2100-1034_3-6237715.html I find claims that soon everything will be HD somewhat dubious (working for a company that produces video for online distribution) - I think that is based off the all

Re: [Nanog] ATT VP: Internet to hit capacity by 2010

2008-04-18 Thread Patrick W. Gilmore
On Apr 18, 2008, at 4:15 PM, Scott Francis wrote: http://www.news.com/2100-1034_3-6237715.html I find claims that soon everything will be HD somewhat dubious (working for a company that produces video for online distribution) - although certainly not as eyebrow-raising as in 3 years' time,

Re: [Nanog] ATT VP: Internet to hit capacity by 2010

2008-04-18 Thread David Coulson
Stephen John Smoogen wrote: I think that is based off the all American TV going to HDD that is supposed to happen in 2009. ( I think I read that currently only 40% of Americans have HDD TV's and the 60% were not going to buy one until it became too late. ) This is not accurate. In 2009 the US

Re: [Nanog] ATT VP: Internet to hit capacity by 2010

2008-04-18 Thread Jeff Shultz
Stephen John Smoogen wrote: On Fri, Apr 18, 2008 at 2:15 PM, Scott Francis [EMAIL PROTECTED] wrote: http://www.news.com/2100-1034_3-6237715.html I find claims that soon everything will be HD somewhat dubious (working for a company that produces video for online distribution) - I think

Re: [Nanog] ATT VP: Internet to hit capacity by 2010

2008-04-18 Thread Williams, Marc
: [Nanog] ATT VP: Internet to hit capacity by 2010 http://www.news.com/2100-1034_3-6237715.html I find claims that soon everything will be HD somewhat dubious (working for a company that produces video for online distribution) - although certainly not as eyebrow-raising as in 3 years' time, 20

Re: [Nanog] ATT VP: Internet to hit capacity by 2010

2008-04-18 Thread Marc Manthey
If the cable operators put their broadcast content onto an access network multicast . . . Then how could they resell the same content to europe? hello, my biggest problem in understanding the ip6 / multicast concept is if the whole internet were multicast enabled and there is no unicast

Re: [Nanog] ATT VP: Internet to hit capacity by 2010

2008-04-18 Thread Mike Lieman
On Fri, Apr 18, 2008 at 4:15 PM, Scott Francis [EMAIL PROTECTED] wrote: http://www.news.com/2100-1034_3-6237715.html It's a FUD attempt to get people to forget about how ATT owes everyone in the US with a telephone a check for $150,000.00 in statutory penalties for their unlawful spying.

Re: [Nanog] ATT VP: Internet to hit capacity by 2010

2008-04-18 Thread Mike Lieman
On Fri, Apr 18, 2008 at 6:20 PM, Kevin Oberman [EMAIL PROTECTED] wrote: Date: Fri, 18 Apr 2008 18:06:48 -0400 From: Mike Lieman [EMAIL PROTECTED] On Fri, Apr 18, 2008 at 4:15 PM, Scott Francis [EMAIL PROTECTED] wrote: http://www.news.com/2100-1034_3-6237715.html It's a FUD

Re: [Nanog] ATT VP: Internet to hit capacity by 2010

2008-04-18 Thread Dragos Ruiu
On 18-Apr-08, at 1:45 PM, David Coulson wrote: Stephen John Smoogen wrote: I think that is based off the all American TV going to HDD that is supposed to happen in 2009. ( I think I read that currently only 40% of Americans have HDD TV's and the 60% were not going to buy one until it

Re: [Nanog] ATT VP: Internet to hit capacity by 2010

2008-04-18 Thread Scott Weeks
--- [EMAIL PROTECTED] wrote: From: Scott Francis [EMAIL PROTECTED] Does anybody know what the basis for Mr. Cicconi's claims were (if they even had a basis at all)? From: Bill Nash [EMAIL PROTECTED] I wouldn't be shocked at all if this was an

Re: [Nanog] ATT VP: Internet to hit capacity by 2010

2008-04-18 Thread David Coulson
Dragos Ruiu wrote: Bet you a beer it won't happen. :) I will let you know next February when my rabbit ears stop working :) ___ NANOG mailing list NANOG@nanog.org http://mailman.nanog.org/mailman/listinfo/nanog