Re: did AS174 and AS4134 de-peer?

2012-03-07 Thread Jim Cowie
On Wed, Mar 7, 2012 at 2:23 AM, John van Oppen jvanop...@spectrumnet.uswrote:

 All -

 I was noticing that it appears from our Seattle-based full route feed from
 cogent that they may have de-peered AS4134 (or vise-versa)...   anyone know
 anything about this?We noticed this recently in a shift of traffic away
 from cogent for traffic to and from china telecom...   Now cogent's path is
 _174_1239_4134_.


Indeed:
http://www.renesys.com/blog/2012/03/cogent-depeers-china-telecom.shtml

cheers,   --jim


Re: did AS174 and AS4134 de-peer?

2012-03-07 Thread Jim Cowie
On Wed, Mar 7, 2012 at 6:33 PM, Patrick W. Gilmore patr...@ianai.netwrote:

 On Mar 7, 2012, at 18:29 , Nick Hilliard wrote:
   On 7 Mar 2012, at 23:19, Darius Jahandarie djahanda...@gmail.com
 wrote:
  On Wed, Mar 7, 2012 at 17:55, Greg Chalmers gchalm...@gmail.com
 wrote:
 
  Isn't this journalism a bit yellow? No facts / based on speculation..
 
  - Greg
 
  Now all they need to do is link back to this NANOG thread as a source.
 
  That would be very irresponsible. Otoh, if someone updated the tier1
 network page on Wikipedia first...

 There is no change to the list.  Cogent still does not have transit.
  Cogent sees CT through Sprint (a peer) because CT pays Sprint for transit.

 OTOH, Jim did say in his blog post: This disconnection will increase
 China Telecom's transit costs  This assumes facts not in evidence,
 namely that the CT - Sprint pipes were not full before the de-peering
 incident.


Heh.I think Doug was pretty clear in his summary of the observed facts,
at least.  There was a healthy, longstanding routing adjacency, observed by
all.  Right sharp at the top of the hour (10:00pm in China, 9:00am Eastern
time), that connection disappears from global view.  Afterward, the
percentage of the Renesys peer base that likes transit paths to CT through
Sprint ticks up modestly.

The real story there is hidden in that traceroute latency plot.  Look how
neatly it bifurcates post-event into paths through Sprint and paths through
Level3.  Notice that paths through Level3 tend to have slightly lower
latencies and significantly less volatility.  Infer what you will about the
congestion on the Sprint-CT pipe.

As a meta-comment: this Quick Look style of blog is an experiment we're
trying, based on feedback that the community wanted to hear about more of
these little events as they happen.  In a Quick Look, we're giving the
facts as they are known from initial measurement, and a very quick summary
of our preliminary analysis of the incident.   Then we throw the topic open
to comments from those who might have the clues to the rest of the story ...

cheers,   --jim


Re: BBC reports Kenya fiber break

2012-03-01 Thread Jim Cowie
On Thu, Mar 1, 2012 at 4:11 AM, Georgios Theodoridis gt...@iti.gr wrote:

 Has it been known the exact time of the incident?
 I have found an article reporting that the cut occurred in the mid-day of
 Saturday 25th but nothing more precise.
 We would like to use such information for a BGP anomaly detection analysis
 that we are carrying out in our research centre.

 Thanks in advance,

 George



Renesys published a brief writeup of the incident yesterday.   We called it
at 09:13 UTC on the 25th.   Lots of interesting outage and transit-shift
effects to see in the East African BGP data that day.  We also report some
shifts in latency based on active measurement, as everyone's traffic jumps
onto the surviving connectivity through SEACOM.   Kenya Data Networks
(AS33770) did a particularly good job staying alive by virtue of their
upstream provider diversity, kudos to them.

http://www.renesys.com/blog/2012/02/east-african-cable-breaks.shtml

best,  --jim


Re: Libya

2011-02-18 Thread Jim Cowie
On Fri, Feb 18, 2011 at 10:41 PM, William Warren
hescomins...@emmanuelcomputerconsulting.com wrote:
 On 2/19/2011 1:23 AM, Randy Bush wrote:

 gossip that libya is off net.  any actual data?

 randy

 renesys shows libya is offline..


And  they're back, 6h52m later.
http://www.renesys.com/blog/2011/02/libyan-disconnect-1.shtml

--jim



Re: Internet blocked in Algeria?

2011-02-12 Thread Jim Cowie
On Sat, Feb 12, 2011 at 6:05 PM, mikea mi...@mikea.ath.cx wrote:
 On Sat, Feb 12, 2011 at 05:01:12PM -0500, Joly MacFie wrote:
 Any confirmation of internet blocking?

 http://bikyamasr.com/wordpress/?p=26849

 As massive street demonstrations are met with widespread violence in
 Algeria, the country is reporting that many Facebook accounts have been
 deleted or blocked by the government, in an effort to stifle protests
 against President Abdelaziz Boutifleka, activists on Twitter reported around
 midday in the country.
 They also said that the government is working fast to cut off all Internet
 providers in the country.

 At least some websites, though not all of them, that are linked off
 http://www.erepublic.org/egovincountriesa/algeria.html
 seem to be working OK. I grant they're all government, but they're up
 and serving requests.


Looks up to us, with the exception of a few websites.   Routes stable,
inbound traceroutes unremarkable, lots and lots of DZ-hosted content
available.

http://www.renesys.com/blog/2011/02/watching-algeria.shtml

best,  --jim



Re: Connectivity status for Egypt

2011-02-02 Thread Jim Cowie
On Wed, Feb 2, 2011 at 6:17 AM, Teo Ruiz teor...@gmail.com wrote:

 On Tue, Feb 1, 2011 at 21:30, Marshall Eubanks t...@americafree.tv wrote:
  On Jan 31, 2011, at 5:14 PM, Marshall Eubanks wrote:
 
  As an update, BGP for Noor.net has been withdrawn. Even the Egyptian
 stock exchange - egyptse.com - now appears to be off the Internet.
 
  I have been told that the Egyptian Prime Minister has publicly announced
 that the Internet would be restored soon, but at present neither my

 Looks like it's coming back: http://stat.ripe.net/egypt

 ~2500 prefixes being announced now.
 --
 teo - http://www.teoruiz.com

 Res publica non dominetur


Yes, confirmed from 09:29 UTC.   Basically all major providers are back,
full status quo ante (modulo reagg), major sites are up.

http://www.renesys.com/blog/2011/02/egypt-returns-to-the-internet.shtml

Good thoughts go out to the guys in the EG NOCs this morning.Nanog wants
to hear your war stories some day over a cup of tea.

--jim


Re: good night v4

2011-02-01 Thread Jim Cowie
I believe I still have a daguerreotype of the steam-powered brass-and-ivory
countdown clock that used to live in the Smithsonian.

You remember: the one that counted down the days until United States Real
Estate Exhaustion Day in 1898.  The day when all the free land grants
ended, and nobody would be able to get space to build a house on any more,
or graze their cattle.No more land grants?   What will we do?!   How
will the United States sustain its insane economic growth curve in the 20th
century when all the land has been given away?

Of course, just in time, President McKinley launched his ambitious program
to tear down American society street by street and rebuild it on the Moon,
where there's no shortage of free land and colonists willing to stake a
claim.  And then .. oh, never mind.

--jim



On Tue, Feb 1, 2011 at 5:20 AM, Scott Weeks sur...@mauigateway.com wrote:



 I know there're a gazillion counters out there, but one many have watched
 for a long time is potaroo's (http://www.potaroo.net/tools/ipv4).  I was
 having fun watching it run out tonight.  Here's a snapshot with only 1090
 routes left: http://mauigateway.com/~surfer/goodnight-v4.png

 It turns out to be a timer counting down to midnight on the selected day,
 so everyone saw it goto zero at different times.  However, since Hawaii is
 the last major population in the world's day (last one before the
 International date line) and the counter here hit zero does that mean I will
 wake up tomorrow to a shiny new internet?

 scott
 apologies, it's late and I just couldn't help it...   :-) -- evil grin




Re: Science vs. bullshit

2009-10-19 Thread Jim Cowie
Randy's right that it can be somewhat difficult to agree on a single
methodology for generating accurate assessments of how many transit
providers a particular network uses at a particular moment in time.
There are at least two knobs to turn: how long you integrate updates (we
like to use at least 24 hours of continuous time in order to flush out
backup routes, but it's sensible to look for weeks or longer to get the real
rarities to show their heads), and how much peer diversity you require in
order to call a provider relationship 'globally visible transit' for a given
prefix (I used 50+ peers as a rough rule of thumb, but you can pick
lower/higher numbers and get arguably meaningful answers).   It's like
asking, how big is the global routing table .. REALLY?   Depends on how
you count.

The thing about the data I presented, however, is that it is _differential_
... it says set your knobs, look at four days over four years, and let's
see if the migration among populations seems consistent.   In fact, the
recurrence is pretty stable -- the same percentage of people in diversity
class X tend to end up in diversity class Y twelve months later, over
multiple years, with small changes that we can identify as trends.  This
gives confidence that the knobs are set in such a way that they are
achieving some meaningful classification of the prefix population.

To Patrick's point, the shape of the curve tells us useful things, even if
the precise boundaries among diversity classes can be drawn in subtly
different ways.

And that's exactly why we look for techniques that can give information
about trends (for example, my point that some dual-homed ASNs appear to be
postponing their decision to attain higher degrees of multihoming) even in
the presence of some classification uncertainty at the single-prefix level.

I'm glad to have sparked so much excitement with a 10-minute talk.   Imagine
if I had dragged it out to 30 minutes!

cheers, ---jim



On Mon, Oct 19, 2009 at 4:05 PM, Patrick W. Gilmore patr...@ianai.netwrote:

 Lightning talk followup because I want to make sure there was not a
 miscommunication.  A two sentence comment at the mic while 400+ of your
 not-so-close friends are watching does not a rational discussion make.

 The talk in question:

   
 http://nanog.org/meetings/nanog47/presentations/Lightning/Cowie_Recession_lightning_N47.pdf
 

 The disagreement is whether Renesys can reliably find out how many transit
 providers an AS has.  Remember, we are discussing transit providers here,
 not peers.

 My point is if an AS has _transit_, then it must be visible in the global
 table (assuming a reasonably large set of vantage points), or it would not
 be transit.  Of course, this is not perfect, but it is a pretty close
 approximation for fitting curves over 10s of 1000s of ASes.  So things like
 I have two transit providers, and one buys transit from the other is a
 small number and not relevant to fitting curves.  (It also means you are an
 idiot, or in a corner of the Internet where you should probably be
 considered as having only one provider.)

 Majdi has pointed out other corner cases where transit is not viewable
 through systems like Rensys.  For instance, announcing prefixes to Provider
 2 with a community to local-pref the announcement below peer routes.  That
 means only one transit is visible in BGP data.

 There were several reasons some of us did not think edge cases like this
 were important.  For instance, Renesys keeps -every- update ever, so if
 Provider 1 ever flaps, Rensys will see Provider 2.  Also, when looking for
 the number of providers, a backup path may not be relevant since no
 packets take that path.

 More importantly, I thought the point of the talk was to show that the
 table was growing during the recession and people were still getting more
 providers.  The result is a curve, not a hard-and-fast number.  Corner cases
 like the one above are barely noise, so the curve it still valid.

 It is true that finding peering edges with things like route-views is
 problematic at best, so finding ASes with one transit plus peering might be
 problematic.  But since I do not think that was the point of the talk, I do
 not consider that problem.


 If anyone who still thinks the problems with finding transit edges somehow
 make the talk 'bullshit' could clarify their position, I would be grateful.

 --
 TTFN,
 patrick





Re: Invalid prefix announcement from AS9035 for 129.77.0.0/16

2009-10-09 Thread Jim Cowie
Lots of people were affected, but none significantly.   They originated
86,747 networks very briefly (less than a minute at 7:23 UTC), and I don't
think anyone outside Telecom Italia's customer cone even saw them.   So the
impact was really, really limited.  The correct origins were being
reasserted even before the last of the announcements came over the wire.

It always irks me when I see routing alerts that arrive hours after the
event is over, without any of the context that would allow you to know
whether it had any real impact.   Your instinct to check looking glasses is
the right one, but you have to move quickly and know where to look.

Of course, I'm biased.--jim



On Fri, Oct 9, 2009 at 9:20 AM, Adam Kennedy akenn...@cyberlinktech.comwrote:

 Agreed. Our prefixes at AS40060 were announced as well. I received a
 notification around 7:00am EDT that our prefixes were detected announced
 from AS9035 with the same upstream AS1267.


 On 10/9/09 8:34 AM, Wouter Prins w...@null0.nl wrote:

  Hi Matthew,
  You are not the only one having this issue. They are announcing some
 other
  prefixes as well!
 
  2009/10/9 Matthew Huff mh...@ox.com
 
  About 4 hours ago BGPmon picked up a rogue announcement of 129.77.0.0
 from
  AS9035 (ASN-WIND Wind Telecomunicazioni spa) with an upstream of AS1267
  (ASN-INFOSTRADA Infostrada S.p.A.). I don't see it now on any looking
 glass
  sites. Hopefully this was just a typo that was quickly corrected. I
 would
  appreciate if people have time and can double check let me know if any
  announcements are active except from our AS6128/AS6395 upstreams.
 
  If this were to persist, what would be the best course of action to
 resolve
  it, especially given that the AS was within RIPE.
 
 
  
  Matthew Huff   | One Manhattanville Rd
  OTA Management LLC | Purchase, NY 10577
  http://www.ox.com  | Phone: 914-460-4039
  aim: matthewbhuff  | Fax:   914-460-4139
 
 
 
 
 

 --
 Adam Kennedy
 Senior Network Administrator
 Cyberlink Technologies, Inc.
 Phone: 888-293-3693 x4352
 Fax: 574-855-5761





Re: Telecom Collapse?

2008-12-04 Thread Jim Cowie
On Thu, Dec 4, 2008 at 12:20 PM, Wayne E. Bouchard [EMAIL PROTECTED] wrote:

 That the old ILECs are having problems due to the fact that few if any
 of them know how to run a decent business is not exactly news. IMO, it
 might be best if some of them were finaly placed in the position of
 figuring out how to come into the 21st century and actually compete
 for business.


I wasn't going to say anything, but as long as you brought it up ...

http://www.renesys.com/blog/2008/12/fiber-to-the-home-ideal-econom.shtml

Outlandish and bizarre, yes, but perhaps no more so than the other things
you read in the
papers these days?--jim