Re: Drops in Core

2015-08-17 Thread Patrick W. Gilmore
On Aug 16, 2015, at 8:44 AM, William Herrin b...@herrin.us wrote:
 On Sun, Aug 16, 2015 at 8:00 AM, Patrick W. Gilmore patr...@ianai.net wrote:
 On Aug 15, 2015, at 1:41 PM, Job Snijders j...@instituut.net wrote:
 On Sat, Aug 15, 2015 at 11:01:56PM +0530, Glen Kent wrote:

 Is there a paper or a presentation that discusses the drops in the core?
 
 If i were to break the total path into three legs -- the first, middle
 and the last, then are you saying that the probability of packet loss
 is perhaps 1/3 in each leg (because the packet passes through
 different IXes).
 
 It is unlikely packets pass through an IXP more then once.
 
 “Unlikely”? That’s putting it mildly.
 
 Unless someone is selling transit over an IX, I do not see how it
 can happen. And I would characterize transit over IXes far more
 pessimistically than “unlikely”.
 
 Hi Patrick,
 
 I'm told it happens relatively often in networks supporting a lot of
 schools. Being an unpaid pass-through for schools paying other ISPs
 functions as a loss-leader that attracts more schools as customers.

Lots of people have mentioned “but XXX happens” to me. And you are all correct. 
XXX happens.

My point was not “this never happens”. Just those other topologies are a tiny, 
tiny fraction of the packets flowing on the Internet.

Most packets flow from CDNs to broadband. And those packets flow mostly direct 
(on-net or PNI), or over a _single_ IXP. Corner cases exist, but they are just 
that - corner cases.

-- 
TTFN,
patrick



Re: Drops in Core

2015-08-17 Thread Christopher Morrow
On Mon, Aug 17, 2015 at 1:44 PM, Scott Whyte swh...@gmail.com wrote:


 On 8/15/15 09:47, Glen Kent wrote:

 Hi,

 Is it fair to say that most traffic drops happen in the access layers, or
 the first and the last miles, and the % of packet drops in the core are
 minimal? So, if the packet has made it past the first mile and has
 entered the core then chances are high that the packet will safely get
 across till the exit in the core. Sure once it gets off the core, then all
 bets are off on whether it will get dropped or not. However, the key point
 is that the core usually does not drop too many packets - the probability
 of drops are highest in the access side.


 What do these terms mean in a world where my EC2 VM talks to my GCE VM?  It
 doesn't seem unreasonable that the DC bandwidth on either end dwarfs the
 core capacity between the two.

there's some other work going on:
  
http://www.bitag.org/documents/BITAG_Press_Release_-_Announcing_Prioritization_and_Differential_Treatment_Topic.pdf

which pokes a bit at this idea of packet drops (from the 'what if I
prioritize traffic? or differentiate between traffic types?'
perspective). I imagine that a topic of conversation is that: hey, do
we get meaningful drop numbers, or does prioritization/differentiation
matter, in the core of a network or only at the network edges?

mostly bitag is focused on 'consumer' edges, so they may not look at
'inside a a datacenter' problems.


Re: Drops in Core

2015-08-17 Thread Justin Wilson - MTIN
I could see it going through several private peering, but not through multiple 
exchanges.  


Justin Wilson
j...@mtin.net

---
http://www.mtin.net Owner/CEO
xISP Solutions- Consulting – Data Centers - Bandwidth

http://www.midwest-ix.com  COO/Chairman
Internet Exchange - Peering - Distributed Fabric




 On Aug 16, 2015, at 8:00 AM, Patrick W. Gilmore patr...@ianai.net wrote:
 
 On Aug 15, 2015, at 1:41 PM, Job Snijders j...@instituut.net wrote:
 On Sat, Aug 15, 2015 at 11:01:56PM +0530, Glen Kent wrote:
 
 Is there a paper or a presentation that discusses the drops in the core?
 
 If i were to break the total path into three legs -- the first, middle
 and the last, then are you saying that the probability of packet loss
 is perhaps 1/3 in each leg (because the packet passes through
 different IXes).
 
 It is unlikely packets pass through an IXP more then once.
 
 “Unlikely”? That’s putting it mildly.
 
 Unless someone is selling transit over an IX, I do not see how it can happen. 
 And I would characterize transit over IXes far more pessimistically than 
 “unlikely”.
 
 
 [Combining responses]
 On Aug 15, 2015, at 1:21 PM, Owen DeLong o...@delong.com wrote:
 
 I would say that the probability of a packet drop at any particular peering
 point is less than the probability at one of the two edges.
 
 However, given that most packets are likely to traverse multiple peering
 points between the two edges, the probability of a packet drop along
 the way at one of the several peering points overall is roughly equal
 to the probability of a drop at one of the two edges.
 
 I’m a little confused why most packets are “likely to traverse multiple 
 peering points”?
 
 Most packets these days are sourced from one of three companies. (Which Owen 
 should know well. :) At least one of those companies published stats saying 
 the vast majority of packets are “zero or one” AS hop from the destination. I 
 cannot imagine Google or Netflix being 50% behind Akamai on that stat. Which 
 clearly implies most packets traverse “zero or one” AS hop - i.e. one or zero 
 peering points.
 
 Finally, I would love to see data backing up the statement that packets are 
 more likely to drop at one edge (assuming the destination?) than at a peering 
 point.
 
 -- 
 TTFN,
 patrick
 

Justin Wilson
j...@mtin.net

---
http://www.mtin.net Owner/CEO
xISP Solutions- Consulting – Data Centers - Bandwidth

http://www.midwest-ix.com  COO/Chairman
Internet Exchange - Peering - Distributed Fabric



Re: Drops in Core

2015-08-17 Thread Scott Whyte



On 8/15/15 09:47, Glen Kent wrote:

Hi,

Is it fair to say that most traffic drops happen in the access layers, or
the first and the last miles, and the % of packet drops in the core are
minimal? So, if the packet has made it past the first mile and has
entered the core then chances are high that the packet will safely get
across till the exit in the core. Sure once it gets off the core, then all
bets are off on whether it will get dropped or not. However, the key point
is that the core usually does not drop too many packets - the probability
of drops are highest in the access side.


What do these terms mean in a world where my EC2 VM talks to my GCE VM? 
 It doesn't seem unreasonable that the DC bandwidth on either end 
dwarfs the core capacity between the two.




Is this correct?

Glen



Re: Drops in Core

2015-08-17 Thread Patrick W. Gilmore
Terms get over-used  overloaded in many cases. So it is difficult to tell if 
this is just a miscommunication, but I think I disagree with this statement.

“Private Peering” in the strictest sense is still peering. You do not have 
“private peering” with your transit provider, even though the traffic goes over 
a dedicated link. As such, I do not see how a packet would go over multiple 
private peering - public or private - links except in a few corner cases such 
as the ones stated earlier in the thread.


Let’s consider a more general case. Assume a packet traverses several ASes:

  A -- B -- C -- D -- E

There should be no more than one peering relationship in that whole chain, if 
any. (Zero is a valid number as well.) If, for instance, B peers with C and C 
peers with D, then who is paying C to do “work”, i.e. to transport packets 
through fibers  routers inside C's network? It doesn’t even work if B peers 
with C and D peers with E. Why would C pay D or vice versa when they are not 
paid on the other side?

The reason peering works is because each peer is paid, either by their own user 
or a downstream. When traffic goes over a network without being paid at either 
source or destination, something is wrong. Or worse, when a network pays to 
send traffic without being paid to receive it, or the reverse, things are very 
broken.

Even the corner cases still have people paying in some sense. In Bill’s 
example, networks giving free transit to schools, there is value traded. The 
ISP providing the service is either expecting more revenue from the school or 
revenue from others because they transit the school. In the case of a transit 
provider providing free transit to eyeballs in order to balance ratios, the 
value is the inbound demand. In Job’s example, you are paying both providers. 
Even though one has a de-aggregate link, the other is still getting paid. Etc., 
etc.

If each case, if the expected value does not materialize, the ISP will stop 
providing the service.


In summary: While there are exceptions to many (all?) rules, we are discussing 
generalities. And in general, companies who perform work without being paid 
tend not to last very long.

-- 
TTFN,
patrick

 On Aug 17, 2015, at 10:51 AM, Justin Wilson - MTIN li...@mtin.net wrote:
 
 I could see it going through several private peering, but not through 
 multiple exchanges.  
 
 
 Justin Wilson
 j...@mtin.net
 
 ---
 http://www.mtin.net Owner/CEO
 xISP Solutions- Consulting – Data Centers - Bandwidth
 
 http://www.midwest-ix.com  COO/Chairman
 Internet Exchange - Peering - Distributed Fabric
 
 
 
 
 On Aug 16, 2015, at 8:00 AM, Patrick W. Gilmore patr...@ianai.net wrote:
 
 On Aug 15, 2015, at 1:41 PM, Job Snijders j...@instituut.net wrote:
 On Sat, Aug 15, 2015 at 11:01:56PM +0530, Glen Kent wrote:
 
 Is there a paper or a presentation that discusses the drops in the core?
 
 If i were to break the total path into three legs -- the first, middle
 and the last, then are you saying that the probability of packet loss
 is perhaps 1/3 in each leg (because the packet passes through
 different IXes).
 
 It is unlikely packets pass through an IXP more then once.
 
 “Unlikely”? That’s putting it mildly.
 
 Unless someone is selling transit over an IX, I do not see how it can 
 happen. And I would characterize transit over IXes far more pessimistically 
 than “unlikely”.
 
 
 [Combining responses]
 On Aug 15, 2015, at 1:21 PM, Owen DeLong o...@delong.com wrote:
 
 I would say that the probability of a packet drop at any particular peering
 point is less than the probability at one of the two edges.
 
 However, given that most packets are likely to traverse multiple peering
 points between the two edges, the probability of a packet drop along
 the way at one of the several peering points overall is roughly equal
 to the probability of a drop at one of the two edges.
 
 I’m a little confused why most packets are “likely to traverse multiple 
 peering points”?
 
 Most packets these days are sourced from one of three companies. (Which Owen 
 should know well. :) At least one of those companies published stats saying 
 the vast majority of packets are “zero or one” AS hop from the destination. 
 I cannot imagine Google or Netflix being 50% behind Akamai on that stat. 
 Which clearly implies most packets traverse “zero or one” AS hop - i.e. one 
 or zero peering points.
 
 Finally, I would love to see data backing up the statement that packets are 
 more likely to drop at one edge (assuming the destination?) than at a 
 peering point.
 
 -- 
 TTFN,
 patrick
 
 
 Justin Wilson
 j...@mtin.net
 
 ---
 http://www.mtin.net Owner/CEO
 xISP Solutions- Consulting – Data Centers - Bandwidth
 
 http://www.midwest-ix.com  COO/Chairman
 Internet Exchange - Peering - Distributed Fabric



Re: Drops in Core

2015-08-16 Thread Patrick W. Gilmore
On Aug 15, 2015, at 1:41 PM, Job Snijders j...@instituut.net wrote:
 On Sat, Aug 15, 2015 at 11:01:56PM +0530, Glen Kent wrote:

 Is there a paper or a presentation that discusses the drops in the core?
 
 If i were to break the total path into three legs -- the first, middle
 and the last, then are you saying that the probability of packet loss
 is perhaps 1/3 in each leg (because the packet passes through
 different IXes).
 
 It is unlikely packets pass through an IXP more then once.

“Unlikely”? That’s putting it mildly.

Unless someone is selling transit over an IX, I do not see how it can happen. 
And I would characterize transit over IXes far more pessimistically than 
“unlikely”.


[Combining responses]
On Aug 15, 2015, at 1:21 PM, Owen DeLong o...@delong.com wrote:
 
 I would say that the probability of a packet drop at any particular peering
 point is less than the probability at one of the two edges.
 
 However, given that most packets are likely to traverse multiple peering
 points between the two edges, the probability of a packet drop along
 the way at one of the several peering points overall is roughly equal
 to the probability of a drop at one of the two edges.

I’m a little confused why most packets are “likely to traverse multiple peering 
points”?

Most packets these days are sourced from one of three companies. (Which Owen 
should know well. :) At least one of those companies published stats saying the 
vast majority of packets are “zero or one” AS hop from the destination. I 
cannot imagine Google or Netflix being 50% behind Akamai on that stat. Which 
clearly implies most packets traverse “zero or one” AS hop - i.e. one or zero 
peering points.

Finally, I would love to see data backing up the statement that packets are 
more likely to drop at one edge (assuming the destination?) than at a peering 
point.

-- 
TTFN,
patrick



Re: Drops in Core

2015-08-16 Thread Job Snijders
On Sun, Aug 16, 2015 at 08:00:55AM -0400, Patrick W. Gilmore wrote:
 On Aug 15, 2015, at 1:41 PM, Job Snijders j...@instituut.net wrote:
  On Sat, Aug 15, 2015 at 11:01:56PM +0530, Glen Kent wrote:
 
  Is there a paper or a presentation that discusses the drops in the core?
  
  If i were to break the total path into three legs -- the first, middle
  and the last, then are you saying that the probability of packet loss
  is perhaps 1/3 in each leg (because the packet passes through
  different IXes).
  
  It is unlikely packets pass through an IXP more then once.
 
 “Unlikely”? That’s putting it mildly.
 
 Unless someone is selling transit over an IX, I do not see how it can
 happen. And I would characterize transit over IXes far more
 pessimistically than “unlikely”.

There is another scenario (which unfortunatly is not that uncommon)
where packets could traverse two IXPs, and no transit is sold over any
of those two IXs.

Imagine the following:

Network A purchases transit from network B  network C. Network B 
Network C peer with each other via an IXP. Network A announces a /16 to
network B but 2 x /17 to network C. Network D peers with B via an IX
(and not with C) and receives the /16 from B, but note that internally
network B has two more specifics covering the /16 received from C and
the /16 itself. Network B will export the /16 (received from customer)
but not the /17s (received over peering) to its peers.

Because of longest prefix matching, network B will route the packets
received from network D over an IXP, towards network C, again over an
IXP. 

This phenomenon is described extensively in the following
Internet-Draft:

https://tools.ietf.org/html/draft-ietf-grow-filtering-threats-07

Kind regards,

Job


Re: Drops in Core

2015-08-16 Thread William Herrin
On Sun, Aug 16, 2015 at 8:00 AM, Patrick W. Gilmore patr...@ianai.net wrote:
 On Aug 15, 2015, at 1:41 PM, Job Snijders j...@instituut.net wrote:
 On Sat, Aug 15, 2015 at 11:01:56PM +0530, Glen Kent wrote:

 Is there a paper or a presentation that discusses the drops in the core?

 If i were to break the total path into three legs -- the first, middle
 and the last, then are you saying that the probability of packet loss
 is perhaps 1/3 in each leg (because the packet passes through
 different IXes).

 It is unlikely packets pass through an IXP more then once.

 “Unlikely”? That’s putting it mildly.

 Unless someone is selling transit over an IX, I do not see how it
 can happen. And I would characterize transit over IXes far more
 pessimistically than “unlikely”.

Hi Patrick,

I'm told it happens relatively often in networks supporting a lot of
schools. Being an unpaid pass-through for schools paying other ISPs
functions as a loss-leader that attracts more schools as customers.

Regards,
Bill Herrin



-- 
William Herrin  her...@dirtside.com  b...@herrin.us
Owner, Dirtside Systems . Web: http://www.dirtside.com/


Re: Drops in Core

2015-08-16 Thread Patrick W. Gilmore
On Aug 16, 2015, at 8:15 AM, Job Snijders j...@instituut.net wrote:
 On Sun, Aug 16, 2015 at 08:00:55AM -0400, Patrick W. Gilmore wrote:
 On Aug 15, 2015, at 1:41 PM, Job Snijders j...@instituut.net wrote:
 On Sat, Aug 15, 2015 at 11:01:56PM +0530, Glen Kent wrote:
 
 Is there a paper or a presentation that discusses the drops in the core?
 
 If i were to break the total path into three legs -- the first, middle
 and the last, then are you saying that the probability of packet loss
 is perhaps 1/3 in each leg (because the packet passes through
 different IXes).
 
 It is unlikely packets pass through an IXP more then once.
 
 “Unlikely”? That’s putting it mildly.
 
 Unless someone is selling transit over an IX, I do not see how it can
 happen. And I would characterize transit over IXes far more
 pessimistically than “unlikely”.
 
 There is another scenario (which unfortunatly is not that uncommon)
 where packets could traverse two IXPs, and no transit is sold over any
 of those two IXs.
 
 Imagine the following:
 
 Network A purchases transit from network B  network C. Network B 
 Network C peer with each other via an IXP. Network A announces a /16 to
 network B but 2 x /17 to network C. Network D peers with B via an IX
 (and not with C) and receives the /16 from B, but note that internally
 network B has two more specifics covering the /16 received from C and
 the /16 itself. Network B will export the /16 (received from customer)
 but not the /17s (received over peering) to its peers.
 
 Because of longest prefix matching, network B will route the packets
 received from network D over an IXP, towards network C, again over an
 IXP. 
 
 This phenomenon is described extensively in the following
 Internet-Draft:
 
https://tools.ietf.org/html/draft-ietf-grow-filtering-threats-07

Good point.

Although I have trouble believing it is very common, in the sense that I do not 
believe it is a large number of packets or percent of traffic.

To be clear, I fully believe people are doing the more specifics to provider B 
but not C. Sometimes there is even a good reason for it (although probably not 
usually). However, most of the Internet will send traffic directly to B, or 
even A - especially since most packets are sourced from CDNs[*].

-- 
TTFN,
patrick

[*] I’m counting in-house CDNs like Google, Netflix, and Apple as “CDNs” here. 
Before anyone bitches, trust me, I am probably more aware of the difference 
between those and a “real” CDN than nearly anyone else. But those distinctions 
are orthogonal to the discussion at hand.



Re: Drops in Core

2015-08-15 Thread alif.terranson (IMAP)
Sean Donelan Opined Thusly,

Generally I don't believe ISPs that claim 100% uptime or 0% packet loss.

I have seen a perfect score on a Keynote evaluation, while we had a rather 
nasty outage outside a preststed maintenance window.  When we objected that the 
outages was a planned maintenance that somehow escaped publication, it was 
ignored by Keynote - how generous!  I doubt anyone here would deny the 
difficulty of maintaining a five 9's record, going above and beyond to claim no 
packet loss just tells you who they really are...

--
Yours,
/s/

Alif

Sent from my 100% uptime, packet loss-free digital carrier pigeon.

Re: Drops in Core

2015-08-15 Thread Owen DeLong
I would say that the probability of a packet drop at any particular peering
point is less than the probability at one of the two edges.

However, given that most packets are likely to traverse multiple peering
points between the two edges, the probability of a packet drop along
the way at one of the several peering points overall is roughly equal
to the probability of a drop at one of the two edges.

YMMV.

Owen

 On Aug 15, 2015, at 10:07 , Glen Kent glen.k...@gmail.com wrote:
 
 Hi Bill,
 
 Just making sure that i get your point:
 
 Youre saying that the probability of packet drop at peering points would
 roughly match that at the edge. Is it? I thought that most core switches
 have minimal buffering and really do cut-through forwarding. The idea is
 that the traffic that they receive is already shaped by the upstream
 routers.
 
 Glen
 
 
 
 On Sat, Aug 15, 2015 at 10:33 PM, William Herrin b...@herrin.us wrote:
 
 On Sat, Aug 15, 2015 at 12:47 PM, Glen Kent glen.k...@gmail.com wrote:
 Is it fair to say that most traffic drops happen in the access layers, or
 the first and the last miles, and the % of packet drops in the core are
 minimal? So, if the packet has made it past the first mile and has
 entered the core then chances are high that the packet will safely get
 across till the exit in the core.
 
 Hi Glen,
 
 I would expect congestion loss at enough peering points (center of the
 core) to put it in the same league as noisy cable at the edge.
 
 Regards,
 Bill Herrin
 
 
 
 --
 William Herrin  her...@dirtside.com  b...@herrin.us
 Owner, Dirtside Systems . Web: http://www.dirtside.com/
 



Re: Drops in Core

2015-08-15 Thread Rafael Possamai
Hi Glen,

If you first list the causes of a dropped packet, then you can figure out
how likely they are at different points in time (first\last\peer\etc) by
making some assumptions.

Here's an **example**:

*Cause | Location | Likelihood*
Congestion | Last mile | Low
Congestion | First mile | Low
Congestion | Peering | Medium
Layer 1 | First mile | Low
Layer 1 | Core | Low
Layer 1 | Last mile | High

You can even go as far as drawing a cause and effect diagram for each
location. Then you can collect real world data and fine tune your
assumptions.


Rafael


On Sat, Aug 15, 2015 at 11:47 AM, Glen Kent glen.k...@gmail.com wrote:

 Hi,

 Is it fair to say that most traffic drops happen in the access layers, or
 the first and the last miles, and the % of packet drops in the core are
 minimal? So, if the packet has made it past the first mile and has
 entered the core then chances are high that the packet will safely get
 across till the exit in the core. Sure once it gets off the core, then all
 bets are off on whether it will get dropped or not. However, the key point
 is that the core usually does not drop too many packets - the probability
 of drops are highest in the access side.

 Is this correct?

 Glen



Re: Drops in Core

2015-08-15 Thread William Herrin
On Sat, Aug 15, 2015 at 1:21 PM, Owen DeLong o...@delong.com wrote:
 I would say that the probability of a packet drop at any particular peering
 point is less than the probability at one of the two edges.

 However, given that most packets are likely to traverse multiple peering
 points between the two edges, the probability of a packet drop along
 the way at one of the several peering points overall is roughly equal
 to the probability of a drop at one of the two edges.

Hi Owen,

Generally speaking there are zero or one settlement free peering
points in the active path between any two edges. Not always, but close
enough to it to discount the exceptions.

Speaking for my own experience, I almost never see loss on my Verizon
FiOS edge but see loss at the various Verizon borders with other
networks -all the time-.  They keep pitching me on upgrading to 75/75
but that isn't the upgrade I need.

Regards,
Bill Herrin


-- 
William Herrin  her...@dirtside.com  b...@herrin.us
Owner, Dirtside Systems . Web: http://www.dirtside.com/


Re: Drops in Core

2015-08-15 Thread Glen Kent
Is there a paper or a presentation that discusses the drops in the core?

If i were to break the total path into three legs -- the first, middle and
the last, then are you saying that the probability of packet loss is
perhaps 1/3 in each leg (because the packet passes through different IXes).
That sounds too aggressive for the middle mile. Dont you think so?

On Sat, Aug 15, 2015 at 10:51 PM, Owen DeLong o...@delong.com wrote:

 I would say that the probability of a packet drop at any particular peering
 point is less than the probability at one of the two edges.

 However, given that most packets are likely to traverse multiple peering
 points between the two edges, the probability of a packet drop along
 the way at one of the several peering points overall is roughly equal
 to the probability of a drop at one of the two edges.

 YMMV.

 Owen

  On Aug 15, 2015, at 10:07 , Glen Kent glen.k...@gmail.com wrote:
 
  Hi Bill,
 
  Just making sure that i get your point:
 
  Youre saying that the probability of packet drop at peering points would
  roughly match that at the edge. Is it? I thought that most core switches
  have minimal buffering and really do cut-through forwarding. The idea is
  that the traffic that they receive is already shaped by the upstream
  routers.
 
  Glen
 
 
 
  On Sat, Aug 15, 2015 at 10:33 PM, William Herrin b...@herrin.us wrote:
 
  On Sat, Aug 15, 2015 at 12:47 PM, Glen Kent glen.k...@gmail.com
 wrote:
  Is it fair to say that most traffic drops happen in the access layers,
 or
  the first and the last miles, and the % of packet drops in the core are
  minimal? So, if the packet has made it past the first mile and has
  entered the core then chances are high that the packet will safely
 get
  across till the exit in the core.
 
  Hi Glen,
 
  I would expect congestion loss at enough peering points (center of the
  core) to put it in the same league as noisy cable at the edge.
 
  Regards,
  Bill Herrin
 
 
 
  --
  William Herrin  her...@dirtside.com  b...@herrin.us
  Owner, Dirtside Systems . Web: http://www.dirtside.com/
 




Re: Drops in Core

2015-08-15 Thread Rafael Possamai
That was just an example, that list has to be completed on a specific
network or scenario, it changes dramatically. Imagine you were to create a
list for a DoD network instead of public peering based network, it would
change dramatically.



On Sat, Aug 15, 2015 at 12:28 PM, Glen Kent glen.k...@gmail.com wrote:

 Why do you say that Layer 1 issues in the last mile would be very high?
 How is it any different from the first mile?

 On Sat, Aug 15, 2015 at 10:56 PM, Rafael Possamai raf...@gav.ufsc.br
 wrote:

 Hi Glen,

 If you first list the causes of a dropped packet, then you can figure out
 how likely they are at different points in time (first\last\peer\etc) by
 making some assumptions.

 Here's an **example**:

 *Cause | Location | Likelihood*
 Congestion | Last mile | Low
 Congestion | First mile | Low
 Congestion | Peering | Medium
 Layer 1 | First mile | Low
 Layer 1 | Core | Low
 Layer 1 | Last mile | High

 You can even go as far as drawing a cause and effect diagram for each
 location. Then you can collect real world data and fine tune your
 assumptions.


 Rafael


 On Sat, Aug 15, 2015 at 11:47 AM, Glen Kent glen.k...@gmail.com wrote:

 Hi,

 Is it fair to say that most traffic drops happen in the access layers, or
 the first and the last miles, and the % of packet drops in the core are
 minimal? So, if the packet has made it past the first mile and has
 entered the core then chances are high that the packet will safely get
 across till the exit in the core. Sure once it gets off the core, then
 all
 bets are off on whether it will get dropped or not. However, the key
 point
 is that the core usually does not drop too many packets - the probability
 of drops are highest in the access side.

 Is this correct?

 Glen






Re: Drops in Core

2015-08-15 Thread Job Snijders
On Sat, Aug 15, 2015 at 11:01:56PM +0530, Glen Kent wrote:
 Is there a paper or a presentation that discusses the drops in the core?
 
 If i were to break the total path into three legs -- the first, middle
 and the last, then are you saying that the probability of packet loss
 is perhaps 1/3 in each leg (because the packet passes through
 different IXes).

It is unlikely packets pass through an IXP more then once.

Kind regards,

Job


Re: Drops in Core

2015-08-15 Thread William Herrin
On Sat, Aug 15, 2015 at 1:31 PM, Glen Kent glen.k...@gmail.com wrote:
 Is there a paper or a presentation that discusses the drops in the core?

Hi Glen,

Probably, but I don't know where to point you.


 If i were to break the total path into three legs -- the first, middle and
 the last, then are you saying that the probability of packet loss is perhaps
 1/3 in each leg (because the packet passes through different IXes). That
 sounds too aggressive for the middle mile. Dont you think so?

Break it in to five legs:

1. Your immediate last mile
2. The set of networks you directly or indirectly pay to transmit and
receive packets
3. The border link between your networks and the remote user's networks
4. The set of networks the remote user directly or indirectly pays to
transmit and receive packets
5. The remote user's immediate last mile

In some cases, your packets meet on a network which both you and the
remote user pay for. In those cases, leg 3 does not exist. However,
those cases are less common than the one where neither of you pays the
same networks.

Legs 1 and 5 are often over noisy copper wire suspended from a street pole.
Leg 3 is routinely under-provisioned (too little bandwidth for the
traffic demand).
Legs 2 and 4 rarely exhibit loss for long.

Regards,
Bill Herrin


-- 
William Herrin  her...@dirtside.com  b...@herrin.us
Owner, Dirtside Systems . Web: http://www.dirtside.com/


Re: Drops in Core

2015-08-15 Thread Matthew Petach
Quite the inverse, I'd say; most of the capacity
headaches center around the handoff between
networks, and most of the congestion points
I come across are with private peering links
where one party or the other is unwilling or
unable to augment capacity.  The first and
last mile are fine, but the handoff between
the networks is where congestion and drops
occur.
As others have noted, this will vary greatly
depending on the network in question--so
asking a broad community like this is going
to yield a broad range of answers.  You
aren't going to find one single answer, you'll
find a probability curve that represents the
answers from many people running different
networks.
You'll find the location of packet drops tends
to shift depending on where companies are
willing to spend money; some companies
will spend money on the access layer to
ensure no drops happen there, but are
less willing to pay for capacity upgrades
at peering handoffs.  Other networks will
short-change their access, but maintain a
well-connected peering edge.

So--short answer is there is no one answer
to your question.  Collect the different answers,
plot the curve, and decide where along the
curve you want *your* network to land,
and build accordingly.  Nobody has infinite
money, so nobody builds to a level to ensure
zero loss probability to every destination around
the planet.

Matt



On Sat, Aug 15, 2015 at 9:47 AM, Glen Kent glen.k...@gmail.com wrote:
 Hi,

 Is it fair to say that most traffic drops happen in the access layers, or
 the first and the last miles, and the % of packet drops in the core are
 minimal? So, if the packet has made it past the first mile and has
 entered the core then chances are high that the packet will safely get
 across till the exit in the core. Sure once it gets off the core, then all
 bets are off on whether it will get dropped or not. However, the key point
 is that the core usually does not drop too many packets - the probability
 of drops are highest in the access side.

 Is this correct?

 Glen



Re: Drops in Core

2015-08-15 Thread William Herrin
On Sat, Aug 15, 2015 at 12:47 PM, Glen Kent glen.k...@gmail.com wrote:
 Is it fair to say that most traffic drops happen in the access layers, or
 the first and the last miles, and the % of packet drops in the core are
 minimal? So, if the packet has made it past the first mile and has
 entered the core then chances are high that the packet will safely get
 across till the exit in the core.

Hi Glen,

I would expect congestion loss at enough peering points (center of the
core) to put it in the same league as noisy cable at the edge.

Regards,
Bill Herrin



-- 
William Herrin  her...@dirtside.com  b...@herrin.us
Owner, Dirtside Systems . Web: http://www.dirtside.com/


Re: Drops in Core

2015-08-15 Thread Glen Kent
Hi Bill,

Just making sure that i get your point:

Youre saying that the probability of packet drop at peering points would
roughly match that at the edge. Is it? I thought that most core switches
have minimal buffering and really do cut-through forwarding. The idea is
that the traffic that they receive is already shaped by the upstream
routers.

Glen



On Sat, Aug 15, 2015 at 10:33 PM, William Herrin b...@herrin.us wrote:

 On Sat, Aug 15, 2015 at 12:47 PM, Glen Kent glen.k...@gmail.com wrote:
  Is it fair to say that most traffic drops happen in the access layers, or
  the first and the last miles, and the % of packet drops in the core are
  minimal? So, if the packet has made it past the first mile and has
  entered the core then chances are high that the packet will safely get
  across till the exit in the core.

 Hi Glen,

 I would expect congestion loss at enough peering points (center of the
 core) to put it in the same league as noisy cable at the edge.

 Regards,
 Bill Herrin



 --
 William Herrin  her...@dirtside.com  b...@herrin.us
 Owner, Dirtside Systems . Web: http://www.dirtside.com/



Re: Drops in Core

2015-08-15 Thread William Herrin
On Sat, Aug 15, 2015 at 1:07 PM, Glen Kent glen.k...@gmail.com wrote:
 Youre saying that the probability of packet drop at peering points would
 roughly match that at the edge. Is it? I thought that most core switches
 have minimal buffering and really do cut-through forwarding. The idea is
 that the traffic that they receive is already shaped by the upstream
 routers.

Hi Glen,

It a capacity question. Several core networks [cough Verizon cough]
intentionally under-provision the settlement-free peering links to
other core networks. You can't cut-through when the destination
interface already has a queue of packets waiting to be sent.

Regards,
Bill Herrin



-- 
William Herrin  her...@dirtside.com  b...@herrin.us
Owner, Dirtside Systems . Web: http://www.dirtside.com/


Drops in Core

2015-08-15 Thread Glen Kent
Hi,

Is it fair to say that most traffic drops happen in the access layers, or
the first and the last miles, and the % of packet drops in the core are
minimal? So, if the packet has made it past the first mile and has
entered the core then chances are high that the packet will safely get
across till the exit in the core. Sure once it gets off the core, then all
bets are off on whether it will get dropped or not. However, the key point
is that the core usually does not drop too many packets - the probability
of drops are highest in the access side.

Is this correct?

Glen


Re: Drops in Core

2015-08-15 Thread Mike Hammett
I'd guess first\last\peering. 




- 
Mike Hammett 
Intelligent Computing Solutions 
http://www.ics-il.com 



Midwest Internet Exchange 
http://www.midwest-ix.com 


- Original Message -

From: Glen Kent glen.k...@gmail.com 
To: nanog@nanog.org 
Sent: Saturday, August 15, 2015 11:47:31 AM 
Subject: Drops in Core 

Hi, 

Is it fair to say that most traffic drops happen in the access layers, or 
the first and the last miles, and the % of packet drops in the core are 
minimal? So, if the packet has made it past the first mile and has 
entered the core then chances are high that the packet will safely get 
across till the exit in the core. Sure once it gets off the core, then all 
bets are off on whether it will get dropped or not. However, the key point 
is that the core usually does not drop too many packets - the probability 
of drops are highest in the access side. 

Is this correct? 

Glen 



Re: Drops in Core

2015-08-15 Thread Sean Donelan

On Sat, 15 Aug 2015, Glen Kent wrote:

bets are off on whether it will get dropped or not. However, the key point
is that the core usually does not drop too many packets - the probability
of drops are highest in the access side.

Is this correct?


1. TCP (and most other IP protocols) depends on, and forces packet 
congestion and drops.  Packet drops alone are not necessarily a 
measure of network quality.  Other than some laboratory conditions,

there must always be some congestion somewhere.

2. Packet queuing and drops are most likely at network transition points. 
Usually speed or latency transition points, but also network 
administration transition points.


3. Packet queuing and drops are less likely between network transition 
points, i.e. across the same network (LAN, WAN, ISP, etc).


That's why some ISPs claim they have 0% packet loss on their network. They 
don't include network transition points in their statistics; but have 
worse end-to-end performance than another network which includes 0.1%

packet drops in their reported statistics.

Generally I don't believe ISPs that claim 100% uptime or 0% packet loss.