Software used to predict who might kill. By Michael Matza. The Philadelphia Inquirer.
PHILADELPHIA - University of Pennsylvania criminologist Richard Berk, a trained statistician, never met a data set he didn't like. Now, using fresh data from the Philadelphia probation department, Berk and three colleagues have built an innovative model for predicting which troublemakers already in the system are most likely to kill or attempt a killing. With the homicide rate in Philadelphia outpacing last year's by at least 7 percent, a computer model for "forecasting murder" is in the works, Berk said, to be delivered to the probation department in the new year, with clinical trials of the new tool to begin in the spring. Initial research suggests the software-based system can make it 40 times more likely for caseworkers to accurately predict future lethality than they can using current practices. The project is funded with a private grant and the software is in the public domain, so the product will be delivered to the city free. "This will help stratify our caseload and target our resources to the most dangerous people," probation department director of research Ellen Kurtz said. "I don't care as much about (targeting) the shoplifter. I care a lot about the murderer, obviously." Sociologists have produced hundreds of studies using discrete pieces of information about offenders to try to come up with the means to identify probationers most likely to commit future felonies. But homicide, because it is a relatively rare event, has been very hard to predict. Of all probationers in Philadelphia, only about one in 100 will commit homicide. But for obvious reasons it is crucial to find that needle in the haystack, Berk said. more... http://www.kansascity.com/mld/kansascity/news/breaking_news/16155226.htm -------------------------------------------------------------------- mail2web - Check your email from the web at http://mail2web.com/ . _______________________________________________ NetBehaviour mailing list NetBehaviour@netbehaviour.org http://www.netbehaviour.org/mailman/listinfo/netbehaviour
