RE: [nfc-l] Epic Movement - Etna, NY

2020-10-04 Thread John Kearney
Hi Bryan, 

Thanks very much for continuing this discussion. I very much appreciate the 
opportunity to share some thoughts with a meteorologist. 

Unfortunately, yes, Windy.com has no archives. I am studying coastal migration 
patterns using acoustic monitoring. Generally, I have not completed data 
processing until well after migration events.

I think upper-air data from nearby stations, such as Yarmouth, may be an 
alternative approach to viewing wind speed and direction at different 
altitudes, but it lacks the composite perspective.

John

 

From: bounce-3195971-53237...@mm.list.cornell.edu On Behalf Of Bryan Guarente
Sent: Sunday, October 04, 2020 11:26
To: Night Flight Call Discussions 
Subject: Re: [nfc-l] Epic Movement - Etna, NY

 

John (and others),

For the easternmost third of North America, 850hPa can be too high, that's 
true.  Looking at a level like 950 or 925hPa would be really useful for you in 
Nova Scotia (or any coastal location).  Yet this isn't available on 
earth.nullschool.net  . If you wanted to see the 
different levels of winds between 1000hPa and 850hPa, you could go to windy.com 
 .  Here 
you can adjust vertical levels with a little more granularity AND you can also 
turn on cloud bases which would be helpful for NFC predictions (lower cloud 
bases = better probability of hearing calls).  You cannot, however, go 
backwards in time (as far as I know) to see previous dates that were of 
interest to you.

 

Overall, the forecasted winds from computer models can be useful for prediction 
of migration changes as well as when concentrations of birds will be higher in 
a given area or not.  What Chris had the other day 

  was a great example of the winds coming from an appropriate origin, a large 
scale convergence pattern for his area, and likely lower cloud bases with the 
passage of the weak cold front. The speed of the front helped as well, making 
the event last longer over his area as birds were likely piled up at the 
frontal boundary itself since the wind shift on the opposite side of the front 
was not conducive for migrants.  

 

Thanks,

Bryan

 

Bryan Guarente

Meteorologist/Instructional Designer

UCAR/The COMET Program

Boulder, CO

 

 

On Fri, Oct 2, 2020 at 11:26 AM John Kearney mailto:john.kear...@ns.sympatico.ca> > wrote:

I have often used the earth.nullschool streams to understand bird migration 
movements. However, here in coastal Nova Scotia many birds, mainly passerines, 
fly well above 1000 hpa and well below 850 hpa altitudes (the choices available 
in nullschool streams). The HYSPLIT models often provide more insight into 
passerine and small passerine movements at these intermediate altitudes between 
100 and 1500 meters. I have only analyzed past events and never tried 
forecasting.

John Kearney

Yarmouth, Nova Scotia

 

From: bounce-3195061-53237...@mm.list.cornell.edu 
  On Behalf Of Bryan 
Guarente
Sent: Thursday, October 01, 2020 20:56
To: Night Flight Call Discussions mailto:nfc-l@mm.list.cornell.edu> >
Subject: Re: [nfc-l] Epic Movement - Etna, NY

 

Lee and others,

I didn't see this at the time because it unfortunately went to spam.  

 

The website earth.nullschool.net   is available 
for anyone to use and gives computer modeled streamlines that can help with 
predicting migration patterns.  It is best to look at the 850hPa (mb) level 
when looking for migrational movements away from taller topography.  There is a 
lot more to it than that, but Chris's example was a really good one to use.  On 
that website, you have the ability to go back in time to Dec 31 of 2013, so 
feel free to time travel to look at your "best days" and see what the weather 
was like.  Also, you can move forward  in time approximately 4 days.  All of 
the controls for this site are in the "Earth" button in the bottom left corner. 
 

 

Caveat: This website uses computer model data and computer models can be quite 
wrong, especially the further forward in time you travel.  So take the forecast 
maps with a large grain of salt.  The maps from the past are also from this 
same computer model, so there are still errors, but they are smaller errors 
than the forecasts have in them.  

 

Sorry for the delayed response.  

Bryan




Bryan Guarente

Meteorologist/Instructional Designer

UCAR/The COMET Program

Boulder, CO

 

 

On Fri, Sep 18, 2020 at 6:01 AM Lee Simpson mailto:flutteri...@yahoo.com> > wrote:

This is a great map. Is this something we can access? I have looked at the NOAA 
aviation wind/streamlines maps but they are nothing like this

Thanks 

Lee Simpson 

 

On Friday, September 18, 2020, 01:36:07 AM EDT, Bryan Guarente 
mailto:bryan.guare...@gmail.com> 

Re: [nfc-l] Epic Movement - Etna, NY

2020-10-04 Thread Andrew Horn
Hi all,

Another site that offers some of this info, in a user-friendly way ,and as an 
app for iOS or Android, is https://www.ventusky.com/.

Thanks for all the cool discussion,
Andy Horn
Halifax, Nova Scotia



On Oct 4, 2020, at 11:26 AM, Bryan Guarente 
mailto:bryan.guare...@gmail.com>> wrote:

John (and others),
For the easternmost third of North America, 850hPa can be too high, that's 
true.  Looking at a level like 950 or 925hPa would be really useful for you in 
Nova Scotia (or any coastal location).  Yet this isn't available on 
earth.nullschool.net. If you wanted to see the 
different levels of winds between 1000hPa and 850hPa, you could go to 
windy.com. 
 Here you can adjust vertical levels with a little more granularity AND you can 
also turn on cloud bases which would be helpful for NFC predictions (lower 
cloud bases = better probability of hearing calls).  You cannot, however, go 
backwards in time (as far as I know) to see previous dates that were of 
interest to you.

Overall, the forecasted winds from computer models can be useful for prediction 
of migration changes as well as when concentrations of birds will be higher in 
a given area or not.  What Chris had the other 
day
 was a great example of the winds coming from an appropriate origin, a large 
scale convergence pattern for his area, and likely lower cloud bases with the 
passage of the weak cold front. The speed of the front helped as well, making 
the event last longer over his area as birds were likely piled up at the 
frontal boundary itself since the wind shift on the opposite side of the front 
was not conducive for migrants.

Thanks,
Bryan

Bryan Guarente
Meteorologist/Instructional Designer
UCAR/The COMET Program
Boulder, CO


On Fri, Oct 2, 2020 at 11:26 AM John Kearney 
mailto:john.kear...@ns.sympatico.ca>> wrote:
I have often used the earth.nullschool streams to understand bird migration 
movements. However, here in coastal Nova Scotia many birds, mainly passerines, 
fly well above 1000 hpa and well below 850 hpa altitudes (the choices available 
in nullschool streams). The HYSPLIT models often provide more insight into 
passerine and small passerine movements at these intermediate altitudes between 
100 and 1500 meters. I have only analyzed past events and never tried 
forecasting.
John Kearney
Yarmouth, Nova Scotia

From: 
bounce-3195061-53237...@mm.list.cornell.edu
 On Behalf Of Bryan Guarente
Sent: Thursday, October 01, 2020 20:56
To: Night Flight Call Discussions 
mailto:nfc-l@mm.list.cornell.edu>>
Subject: Re: [nfc-l] Epic Movement - Etna, NY

Lee and others,
I didn't see this at the time because it unfortunately went to spam.

The website earth.nullschool.net is available for 
anyone to use and gives computer modeled streamlines that can help with 
predicting migration patterns.  It is best to look at the 850hPa (mb) level 
when looking for migrational movements away from taller topography.  There is a 
lot more to it than that, but Chris's example was a really good one to use.  On 
that website, you have the ability to go back in time to Dec 31 of 2013, so 
feel free to time travel to look at your "best days" and see what the weather 
was like.  Also, you can move forward  in time approximately 4 days.  All of 
the controls for this site are in the "Earth" button in the bottom left corner.

Caveat: This website uses computer model data and computer models can be quite 
wrong, especially the further forward in time you travel.  So take the forecast 
maps with a large grain of salt.  The maps from the past are also from this 
same computer model, so there are still errors, but they are smaller errors 
than the forecasts have in them.

Sorry for the delayed response.
Bryan

Bryan Guarente
Meteorologist/Instructional Designer
UCAR/The COMET Program
Boulder, CO


On Fri, Sep 18, 2020 at 6:01 AM Lee Simpson 
mailto:flutteri...@yahoo.com>> wrote:
This is a great map. Is this something we can access? I have looked at the NOAA 
aviation wind/streamlines maps but they are nothing like this
Thanks
Lee Simpson

On Friday, September 18, 2020, 01:36:07 AM EDT, Bryan Guarente 
mailto:bryan.guare...@gmail.com>> wrote:


Christopher,
Based on your signature location and the current wind pattern:
https://earth.nullschool.net/#2020/09/18/0300Z/wind/isobaric/850hPa/orthographic=-77.30,42.81,960/loc=-76.383,42.485

You should be seeing this likely through the night with numbers getting less as 
the night goes on but plenty of migrants. I have an article coming out in the 
Fall North American Birds about why this is the case.

For the short and sweet, looking at the right altitude for migration, the winds 
are the right direction for fall 

Re: [nfc-l] Epic Movement - Etna, NY

2020-10-04 Thread Bryan Guarente
John (and others),
For the easternmost third of North America, 850hPa can be too high, that's
true.  Looking at a level like 950 or 925hPa would be really useful for you
in Nova Scotia (or any coastal location).  Yet this isn't available on
earth.nullschool.net. If you wanted to see the different levels of winds
between 1000hPa and 850hPa, you could go to windy.com
.
Here you can adjust vertical levels with a little more granularity AND you
can also turn on cloud bases which would be helpful for NFC predictions
(lower cloud bases = better probability of hearing calls).  You cannot,
however, go backwards in time (as far as I know) to see previous dates that
were of interest to you.

Overall, the forecasted winds from computer models can be useful for
prediction of migration changes as well as when concentrations of birds
will be higher in a given area or not.  What Chris had the other day

was
a great example of the winds coming from an appropriate origin, a large
scale convergence pattern for his area, and likely lower cloud bases with
the passage of the weak cold front. The speed of the front helped as well,
making the event last longer over his area as birds were likely piled up at
the frontal boundary itself since the wind shift on the opposite side of
the front was not conducive for migrants.

Thanks,
Bryan

Bryan Guarente
Meteorologist/Instructional Designer
UCAR/The COMET Program
Boulder, CO


On Fri, Oct 2, 2020 at 11:26 AM John Kearney 
wrote:

> I have often used the earth.nullschool streams to understand bird
> migration movements. However, here in coastal Nova Scotia many birds,
> mainly passerines, fly well above 1000 hpa and well below 850 hpa altitudes
> (the choices available in nullschool streams). The HYSPLIT models often
> provide more insight into passerine and small passerine movements at these
> intermediate altitudes between 100 and 1500 meters. I have only analyzed
> past events and never tried forecasting.
>
> John Kearney
>
> Yarmouth, Nova Scotia
>
>
>
> *From:* bounce-3195061-53237...@mm.list.cornell.edu *On Behalf Of *Bryan
> Guarente
> *Sent:* Thursday, October 01, 2020 20:56
> *To:* Night Flight Call Discussions 
> *Subject:* Re: [nfc-l] Epic Movement - Etna, NY
>
>
>
> Lee and others,
>
> I didn't see this at the time because it unfortunately went to spam.
>
>
>
> The website earth.nullschool.net is available for anyone to use and gives
> computer modeled streamlines that can help with predicting migration
> patterns.  It is best to look at the 850hPa (mb) level when looking for
> migrational movements away from taller topography.  There is a lot more to
> it than that, but Chris's example was a really good one to use.  On that
> website, you have the ability to go back in time to Dec 31 of 2013, so feel
> free to time travel to look at your "best days" and see what the weather
> was like.  Also, you can move forward  in time approximately 4 days.  All
> of the controls for this site are in the "Earth" button in the bottom left
> corner.
>
>
>
> Caveat: This website uses computer model data and computer models can be
> quite wrong, especially the further forward in time you travel.  So take
> the forecast maps with a large grain of salt.  The maps from the past are
> also from this same computer model, so there are still errors, but they are
> smaller errors than the forecasts have in them.
>
>
>
> Sorry for the delayed response.
>
> Bryan
>
>
> Bryan Guarente
>
> Meteorologist/Instructional Designer
>
> UCAR/The COMET Program
>
> Boulder, CO
>
>
>
>
>
> On Fri, Sep 18, 2020 at 6:01 AM Lee Simpson  wrote:
>
> This is a great map. Is this something we can access? I have looked at the
> NOAA aviation wind/streamlines maps but they are nothing like this
>
> Thanks
>
> Lee Simpson
>
>
>
> On Friday, September 18, 2020, 01:36:07 AM EDT, Bryan Guarente <
> bryan.guare...@gmail.com> wrote:
>
>
>
>
>
> Christopher,
>
> Based on your signature location and the current wind pattern:
>
>
> https://earth.nullschool.net/#2020/09/18/0300Z/wind/isobaric/850hPa/orthographic=-77.30,42.81,960/loc=-76.383,42.485
>
>
>
> You should be seeing this likely through the night with numbers getting
> less as the night goes on but plenty of migrants. I have an article coming
> out in the Fall North American Birds about why this is the case.
>
>
>
> For the short and sweet, looking at the right altitude for migration, the
> winds are the right direction for fall migrants into your area, the origin
> is quite distant from you, and there is a frontal passage at right this
> time getting you some extra convergence of birds in your area. The larger
> scale pattern shows that there may be better places than where you are in
> terms of large scale convergence, but your pattern is pretty damn good for
> migrants.
>
>
>
> If