Re: [nfc-l] Epic Movement - Etna, NY

2020-10-04 Thread Bryan Guarente
John (and others),
For the easternmost third of North America, 850hPa can be too high, that's
true.  Looking at a level like 950 or 925hPa would be really useful for you
in Nova Scotia (or any coastal location).  Yet this isn't available on
earth.nullschool.net. If you wanted to see the different levels of winds
between 1000hPa and 850hPa, you could go to windy.com
<https://www.windy.com/-Cloud-base-cbase?950h,cbase,44.719,-63.812,6>.
Here you can adjust vertical levels with a little more granularity AND you
can also turn on cloud bases which would be helpful for NFC predictions
(lower cloud bases = better probability of hearing calls).  You cannot,
however, go backwards in time (as far as I know) to see previous dates that
were of interest to you.

Overall, the forecasted winds from computer models can be useful for
prediction of migration changes as well as when concentrations of birds
will be higher in a given area or not.  What Chris had the other day
<https://earth.nullschool.net/#2020/09/18/0300Z/wind/isobaric/850hPa/orthographic=-77.30,42.81,960/loc=-76.383,42.485>
was
a great example of the winds coming from an appropriate origin, a large
scale convergence pattern for his area, and likely lower cloud bases with
the passage of the weak cold front. The speed of the front helped as well,
making the event last longer over his area as birds were likely piled up at
the frontal boundary itself since the wind shift on the opposite side of
the front was not conducive for migrants.

Thanks,
Bryan

Bryan Guarente
Meteorologist/Instructional Designer
UCAR/The COMET Program
Boulder, CO


On Fri, Oct 2, 2020 at 11:26 AM John Kearney 
wrote:

> I have often used the earth.nullschool streams to understand bird
> migration movements. However, here in coastal Nova Scotia many birds,
> mainly passerines, fly well above 1000 hpa and well below 850 hpa altitudes
> (the choices available in nullschool streams). The HYSPLIT models often
> provide more insight into passerine and small passerine movements at these
> intermediate altitudes between 100 and 1500 meters. I have only analyzed
> past events and never tried forecasting.
>
> John Kearney
>
> Yarmouth, Nova Scotia
>
>
>
> *From:* bounce-3195061-53237...@mm.list.cornell.edu *On Behalf Of *Bryan
> Guarente
> *Sent:* Thursday, October 01, 2020 20:56
> *To:* Night Flight Call Discussions 
> *Subject:* Re: [nfc-l] Epic Movement - Etna, NY
>
>
>
> Lee and others,
>
> I didn't see this at the time because it unfortunately went to spam.
>
>
>
> The website earth.nullschool.net is available for anyone to use and gives
> computer modeled streamlines that can help with predicting migration
> patterns.  It is best to look at the 850hPa (mb) level when looking for
> migrational movements away from taller topography.  There is a lot more to
> it than that, but Chris's example was a really good one to use.  On that
> website, you have the ability to go back in time to Dec 31 of 2013, so feel
> free to time travel to look at your "best days" and see what the weather
> was like.  Also, you can move forward  in time approximately 4 days.  All
> of the controls for this site are in the "Earth" button in the bottom left
> corner.
>
>
>
> Caveat: This website uses computer model data and computer models can be
> quite wrong, especially the further forward in time you travel.  So take
> the forecast maps with a large grain of salt.  The maps from the past are
> also from this same computer model, so there are still errors, but they are
> smaller errors than the forecasts have in them.
>
>
>
> Sorry for the delayed response.
>
> Bryan
>
>
> Bryan Guarente
>
> Meteorologist/Instructional Designer
>
> UCAR/The COMET Program
>
> Boulder, CO
>
>
>
>
>
> On Fri, Sep 18, 2020 at 6:01 AM Lee Simpson  wrote:
>
> This is a great map. Is this something we can access? I have looked at the
> NOAA aviation wind/streamlines maps but they are nothing like this
>
> Thanks
>
> Lee Simpson
>
>
>
> On Friday, September 18, 2020, 01:36:07 AM EDT, Bryan Guarente <
> bryan.guare...@gmail.com> wrote:
>
>
>
>
>
> Christopher,
>
> Based on your signature location and the current wind pattern:
>
>
> https://earth.nullschool.net/#2020/09/18/0300Z/wind/isobaric/850hPa/orthographic=-77.30,42.81,960/loc=-76.383,42.485
>
>
>
> You should be seeing this likely through the night with numbers getting
> less as the night goes on but plenty of migrants. I have an article coming
> out in the Fall North American Birds about why this is the case.
>
>
>
> For the short and sweet, looking at the right altitude for migration, the
> winds are the right direction for fall migrants

Re: [nfc-l] Epic Movement - Etna, NY

2020-10-01 Thread Bryan Guarente
Lee and others,
I didn't see this at the time because it unfortunately went to spam.

The website earth.nullschool.net is available for anyone to use and gives
computer modeled streamlines that can help with predicting migration
patterns.  It is best to look at the 850hPa (mb) level when looking for
migrational movements away from taller topography.  There is a lot more to
it than that, but Chris's example was a really good one to use.  On that
website, you have the ability to go back in time to Dec 31 of 2013, so feel
free to time travel to look at your "best days" and see what the weather
was like.  Also, you can move forward  in time approximately 4 days.  All
of the controls for this site are in the "Earth" button in the bottom left
corner.

Caveat: This website uses computer model data and computer models can be
quite wrong, especially the further forward in time you travel.  So take
the forecast maps with a large grain of salt.  The maps from the past are
also from this same computer model, so there are still errors, but they are
smaller errors than the forecasts have in them.

Sorry for the delayed response.
Bryan

Bryan Guarente
Meteorologist/Instructional Designer
UCAR/The COMET Program
Boulder, CO


On Fri, Sep 18, 2020 at 6:01 AM Lee Simpson  wrote:

> This is a great map. Is this something we can access? I have looked at the
> NOAA aviation wind/streamlines maps but they are nothing like this
> Thanks
> Lee Simpson
>
> On Friday, September 18, 2020, 01:36:07 AM EDT, Bryan Guarente <
> bryan.guare...@gmail.com> wrote:
>
>
> Christopher,
> Based on your signature location and the current wind pattern:
>
> https://earth.nullschool.net/#2020/09/18/0300Z/wind/isobaric/850hPa/orthographic=-77.30,42.81,960/loc=-76.383,42.485
>
> You should be seeing this likely through the night with numbers getting
> less as the night goes on but plenty of migrants. I have an article coming
> out in the Fall North American Birds about why this is the case.
>
> For the short and sweet, looking at the right altitude for migration, the
> winds are the right direction for fall migrants into your area, the origin
> is quite distant from you, and there is a frontal passage at right this
> time getting you some extra convergence of birds in your area. The larger
> scale pattern shows that there may be better places than where you are in
> terms of large scale convergence, but your pattern is pretty damn good for
> migrants.
>
> If you have questions, ask. I am happy to talk more about this.
>
> Bryan Guarente
> Meteorologist/Instructional Designer
> The COMET Program
> Boulder, CO
>
>
> On Thu, Sep 17, 2020 at 11:21 PM Christopher T. Tessaglia-Hymes <
> c...@cornell.edu> wrote:
>
>
>
>
>
>
>
>
>
>
>
> Posted the following to the NFC Facebook group just now and thought I
> would share here:
>
>
>
>
>
>
>
>
>
>
> I’ve been listening live in Etna, NY tonight since 10:30pm. This has been
> an epic migration night here and one of the more constantly vocal in recent
> memory. Literally thousands and thousands of calls. Nearly constant calls of
>
> warblers, thrushes, (and tanagers?), grosbeaks, occasional sparrows, all
> stepping upon one another. First regular groups of Gray-cheeked Thrushes
> late tonight. One Black-billed Cuckoo.
>
> Only just now was there a notable gap of some 10-20 seconds without a
> call, as a group of coyotes started yipping and whooping.
>
>
>
>
>
>
>
>
>
>
>
> Most impressive night to be listening prior to this first calm. It will be
> interesting to try to run these data through Vesper (I am recording to file
> sequence using Raven Pro; plus recording the full night with my Swift
> recorder
>
> and Flowrabola microphone.)
>
>
>
>
>
>
>
>
>
>
>
> Good night-listening!
>
>
>
>
>
>
>
> Sincerely,
>
>
> Chris Tessaglia-Hymes
>
>
>
>
>
>
>
>
> Sent from my iPhone
>
>
>
>
>
>
>
>
>
>
>
>
>
>
>
>
>
>
>
> --
>
>
>
>
> *NFC-L List Info:*
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Re: [nfc-l] Epic Movement - Etna, NY

2020-09-17 Thread Bryan Guarente
Christopher,
Based on your signature location and the current wind pattern:
https://earth.nullschool.net/#2020/09/18/0300Z/wind/isobaric/850hPa/orthographic=-77.30,42.81,960/loc=-76.383,42.485

You should be seeing this likely through the night with numbers getting
less as the night goes on but plenty of migrants. I have an article coming
out in the Fall North American Birds about why this is the case.

For the short and sweet, looking at the right altitude for migration, the
winds are the right direction for fall migrants into your area, the origin
is quite distant from you, and there is a frontal passage at right this
time getting you some extra convergence of birds in your area. The larger
scale pattern shows that there may be better places than where you are in
terms of large scale convergence, but your pattern is pretty damn good for
migrants.

If you have questions, ask. I am happy to talk more about this.

Bryan Guarente
Meteorologist/Instructional Designer
The COMET Program
Boulder, CO


On Thu, Sep 17, 2020 at 11:21 PM Christopher T. Tessaglia-Hymes <
c...@cornell.edu> wrote:

>
>
>
>
>
>
>
>
>
>
> Posted the following to the NFC Facebook group just now and thought I
> would share here:
>
>
>
>
>
>
>
>
>
>
> I’ve been listening live in Etna, NY tonight since 10:30pm. This has been
> an epic migration night here and one of the more constantly vocal in recent
> memory. Literally thousands and thousands of calls. Nearly constant calls of
>
> warblers, thrushes, (and tanagers?), grosbeaks, occasional sparrows, all
> stepping upon one another. First regular groups of Gray-cheeked Thrushes
> late tonight. One Black-billed Cuckoo.
>
> Only just now was there a notable gap of some 10-20 seconds without a
> call, as a group of coyotes started yipping and whooping.
>
>
>
>
>
>
>
>
>
>
>
> Most impressive night to be listening prior to this first calm. It will be
> interesting to try to run these data through Vesper (I am recording to file
> sequence using Raven Pro; plus recording the full night with my Swift
> recorder
>
> and Flowrabola microphone.)
>
>
>
>
>
>
>
>
>
>
>
> Good night-listening!
>
>
>
>
>
>
>
> Sincerely,
>
>
> Chris Tessaglia-Hymes
>
>
>
>
>
>
>
>
> Sent from my iPhone
>
>
>
>
>
>
>
>
>
>
>
>
>
>
>
>
>
>
>
> --
>
>
>
>
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> --
>
>
>
>
>
>
>
>
> --
Bryan Guarente
Meteorologist/Instructional Designer
UCAR/The COMET Program
Boulder, CO

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Re: [nfc-l] Radar birds in the west!

2014-03-23 Thread Bryan Guarente
Jesse,
To answer your question succinctly, yes.  To be more specific, here is a
good map showing radar coverage below 1 feet for all the NEXRAD radars
we have in the contiguous US.

https://www.roc.noaa.gov/WSR88D/Images/WSR-88DCONUSCoverage1000.jpg
OR
https://www.roc.noaa.gov/WSR88D/PublicDocs/WSR-88DCONUSCoverage2011.pdf

(Same maps just different formats)

The white areas are where there is no coverage from a radar (there is an
assumption in that... ask if you need to know).  That should give you a
clue as to where you could see birds on radar in the West.  Now the problem
becomes less concentrating wind patterns in the west and that problem of
terrain for migration.  I have seen on a few occasions migration on radar
in the Front Range of Colorado, but it isn't like you would see out east.
 I tend to see it more as dispersals than I do see it as migration patterns
in the west (anecdotal).  It would makes sense that the places you have
seen migration on radar recently would show up.  Those places all have
really good coverage.

In the West, you have to be better about your radar interpretation,
especially in mountainous areas.  Those wind directions that people like to
pick up on to find birds that are anomalous to the flow are much harder to
understand in the West because of... well... more anomalous flows around
mountains and terrain.  Another reason we might have more trouble seeing
birds in the West on radar is because of flight altitudes.  They may have
to fly higher than most of the radar coverage can see on our normal .5˚
base reflectivity scans.  We can look at other scan levels, but the cone of
visible returns is smaller, and thus limits you even more to seeing
migration.

The last option for why it may be harder in the West to see birds on radar
is because of the locations of our radars.  Aside from beam blockage by
terrain, in very mountainous regions with radars, the radars can be more
affected by temperature inversions which can cause significant beam
refraction (even making it refract all the way to the ground) making for
very hard to read radar echoes and often beams that don't make it high
enough into the atmosphere to intersect with migrating birds.

Hope that helps.  If you have any questions, radar or meteorology-wise,
please feel free to ask.  I can try to explain further or point you to
resources that may be useful in this pursuit.

Good luck.
Bryan

Bryan Guarente
Instructional Designer/Meteorologist
UCAR/The COMET Program
Boulder, CO


On Sat, Mar 22, 2014 at 12:25 AM, Jesse Ellis  wrote:

> Hey all-
>
> I should probably go outside and listen... Anyway, I've asked about this
> before, whether one can ever see birds on radar in the west. It looks like
> a lot of birds are hitting the Gulf tonight, and heading north toward the
> eastern Great Lakes, but you can also see pulses as night falls in Arizona,
> and on radar in Yuma and the central part of the Central Valley in
> California. (Also possibly along the Front Range in CO?) Can anyone with
> more experience confirm this?
>
> Thanks much, and good night birding,
> Jesse Ellis
>
> --
> Jesse Ellis
> Post-doctoral Researcher
> Dept. of Integrative and Comparative Biology,
> UCLA
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Re: [nfc-l] First migration of the season possible tonight in the mid-atlantic?

2011-09-12 Thread Bryan Guarente
Ted and other interested parties,
I ran the HYSPLIT model (page to runyour own HYSPLIT) on your Sept 29, 2008 
date to see what the 6-hr backward trajectories would look like to get to your 
patch by 6AM.  The corresponding plots are here:

http://ready.arl.noaa.gov/hysplit-bin/trajresults.pl?jobidno=385220

You can take a look at those in Google Earth or Google Maps for best 
discrimination of the 6-hr backward trajectories.  If you zoom out and look at 
the general pattern, there must be a high pressure system rolling in from the 
northwest as the trajectories seem to fly these birds from Nebraska/South 
Dakota and back them into the Front Range.  I haven't checked the cloud cover 
or anything like that because you would likely know the information about that 
from in-situ observations.

For further maps, check these out (mean sea-level pressure):
http://virga.sfsu.edu/pub/composites/sathts_snd/0809/08092900_sathts_snd_alt.gif
http://virga.sfsu.edu/pub/composites/sathts_snd/0809/08092906_sathts_snd_alt.gif
http://virga.sfsu.edu/pub/composites/sathts_snd/0809/08092912_sathts_snd_alt.gif

There is a frontal passage at about 00 UTC (the first map), then the high 
pressure system rolls in over time.  The frontal passage seems to be the 
trigger in this case and in a lot of cases with a frontal passage, there is 
along-front flow like what is backing the birds into the Front Range of 
Colorado.  It is always hard to tell how the along-front flow will pan out as 
it depends on a lot of factors (location of the bird or birds on the front, 
depth of front, speed of frontal propagation to name a few).  


If you can pinpoint a better time for the movements that you wanted to target, 
we can be even more accurate, but for now this was my crack at it.

 
Bryan Guarente
Instructional Designer
The COMET Program
University Corporation for Atmospheric Research
Boulder, CO

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Re: [nfc-l] odd NEXRAD pattern

2011-05-03 Thread Bryan Guarente
David and others,
You were asking about where to get archived soundings/wind data.  There is a 
lovely archive at the University of Wyoming's website here: 


http://weather.uwyo.edu/upperair/sounding.html

and equivalent archived upper-air maps here:

http://weather.uwyo.edu/upperair/uamap.html

and real-time profiler data here (only found over the Great Plains):

http://weather.uwyo.edu/upperair/profiler/

>From there you can select an image type (stuve or skew-t is likely preferred, 
but hodographs are available as well if that is what you know how to read).  
Then select the date and time (remember it is all in UTC) and then a location.  
There are soundings here for all over the globe, so this isn't a bad site to 
have on hand for investigating other sites outside the US.  You don't need to 
know the number of the sounding station, you can just click on it on the map.  
If you select stuve or skew-t the winds will be up the right side and those 
correspond to the heights and pressures listed on the left side of the chart.

Here are the soundings from Omaha, NE and North Platte, NE for the closest 
times 
to Bill's original observations.  Note the significant difference in winds in 
the low levels.  Omaha shows a strong north-northwest wind, while North Platte 
shows a highly variable wind direction and light winds at low levels.  This 
suggests exactly what David and others have theorized about.  


Omaha: http://tinyurl.com/3nbtoyv
North Platte: http://tinyurl.com/3gwtu48

Another way to look at this, although not observations is to look at the 
streamlines from recent model output.  I plot streamlines on my website here:

http://homes.comet.ucar.edu/~guarente/birdweather/stream.htm

I unfortunately have not set up an archive yet for my site due to space 
limitations, but I might be able to rerun that date to show the effects seen in 
the soundings and on radar if anyone wants to see it.  This kind of pattern 
often happens with the passage of weak fronts.  The winds start to either turn 
around quickly due to local effects or the winds are so weak behind the front 
that migration can easily occur even in the face of a northwest wind albeit 
light.

(opinion) I personally think that most bird migration discussions focus a lot 
on 
long distance migration nights more than they focus on those localized events 
that can sweep out all the recent migrants from a small area or those that 
bring 
in a small push of birds very close behind a front despite the winds being out 
of the wrong direction.  


For this reason, I am contemplating adding winds speeds to my streamlines maps, 
but it is currently unclear to me the best way to visualize this from model 
data 
because the winds are so variable that the map gets way too complicated for 
most 
individuals to read.  I might do some averaging to get a broader look at the 
winds, but there are some hits taken by doing that.  We'll see what I can pull 
off sometime with my extra time.

Bryan Guarente
Instructional Designer
The COMET Program
University Corporation for Atmospheric Research
Boulder, CO
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Re: [nfc-l] Opinions on tonight's radar loops for southeast PA?

2010-10-27 Thread Bryan Guarente
Andrew,
It looks like a nice reflectivity burst coming out of Philadelphia toward the 
northwest.  At 0136Z, there is a bit of a "bird burst" coming from around the 
Philadelphia airport (SW side of Philadelphia county and NE side of Delaware 
county) likely near the Delaware river, but that is mostly opinion knowing some 
of the area around there.  The burst seems to move northwest and out of the 
radar coverage around 0301Z.  This likely takes them across your area.  I am 
hoping that you have noted the direction of their movement to match that 
against 
radar data.  Birds should have been moving south-southeast to north-northwest 
(roughly).  Is this similar to what you have heard?  


Also, the maps you referred to from my site did not update properly to the 
latest model runs at 00Z, they are still stuck on this morning's run (as of 
11:25 ET), so the time you should be looking at for tonight should be the 12-hr 
forecast instead of the 00-hr analysis.

Good luck the rest of the time you are recording.  

 Bryan Guarente
Instructional Designer
The COMET Program
University Corporation for Atmospheric Research
Boulder, CO





From: Andrew Albright 
To: nfc-l ; m...@udel.edu
Sent: Wed, October 27, 2010 8:54:09 PM
Subject: [nfc-l] Opinions on tonight's radar loops for southeast PA?


To radar watchers out there, does anyone care to comment on the reflectivity 
radar loops tonight for the area 10-20 miles northwest of Philadelphia?
 
1. On the ground, I've heard and recorded a lot of longer "tseeps" (20-50 for 
some minutes) - which is more than I've ever heard around here.  I'd have to 
guess most sound sparrowish (white-throated and plus some short ones) - so 
nothing surprising given the time of year.
 
2. There's not much wind but what there is out of a southerly direction (it 
feels like Florida right now here) so not what I would think would be favorable 
for a heavy migration.
Although if you look at the surface streamlines, it looks like we are on the 
edge of a change in wind direction/speed: 
http://homes.comet.ucar.edu/~guarente/birdweather/stream.htm
The upper level wind direction is definitely out of the southwest.
 
3. There's rain in the area and I see a lot of green on the radar* (not blue) - 
so I'm having a hard time.
 
Sincerely,
Andrew Albright
 
*Using http://www.rap.ucar.edu/weather/radar/


  
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Re: [nfc-l] reflections on a monumental nocturnal migration

2010-09-20 Thread Bryan Guarente
NFCers,
I have saved off a bunch of the radar data and a bunch of streamline data from 
the Sept 10-11 event for my personal use and would be willing to share them 
with 
anyone who wants to see them.  They are currently hidden to the world, but I 
could make them available if anyone wants to look through them.  It was an 
interesting event where a frontogenesis area was aligned very oddly for the 
Northeast (NW to SE) and that was causing the winds to be out of the NE as 
multiple people have noted.  I didn't track the frontogenesis zone back to its 
origins to learn maybe how this could happen in the future, but might be able 
to 
do that with some of the data I saved off.  That will be at a later date though.

Now to Ted's questions:
I have fond memories of Sept 21-22 1985, but from outside Philadelphia, PA... 
wait I was three... (sorry I just had to do that, I will accept all retorts)

My memories are better served up from this website:
http://vortex.plymouth.edu/upairwx-r.html

This is an archive of upper-air meteorological data that goes back to 1957 
(just 
in case your memory goes back further than mine).  This page is a subset of the 
Make-your-own maps archive from Plymouth State University found here:

http://vortex.plymouth.edu/u-make.html

So I went back to look at Ted's memories.  I am a fan of streamlines for seeing 
what is happening in the atmosphere.  I checked multiple levels of the 
atmosphere to come to some of my conclusions: 1000mb (nearing sea-level), 925mb 
(.5-.75km up), and 850mb (1-1.5km up).  Let me show you a few of the maps then 
you can make your own to play along.

I started with Sept 21, 1985 at 12 zulu or UTC 925mb.  It looks like this:
http://tinyurl.com/243kak3
OR zoomed in on the Northeast here:
http://tinyurl.com/256lavj

In these maps, I see an area of weak frontal passage or at the least 
frontgenesis (front "birthing" area) just south of Pittsburgh running ese to 
wnw.  The winds behind the frontal zone are directly from the north or slightly 
west of north.  12Z is just before sun-up that time of year, so about the time 
I 
would expect Ted was out huckin' papers.  With the frontal passage overnight, I 
would expect the bird numbers to be piled up behind the front in the preferable 
wind field.  I would suspect that the morning was cloudy with maybe a light 
drizzle based on the frontogenesis.  Based on the sounding from that morning, 
there was possibly some fog or very low clouds that morning (Sounding).  I 
would 
expect that this made the conditions even better, pushing some of the birds 
lower.  It seems like a perfect day to me for a nice night flight... but wait...

Ted's dates were Sept 21-22, 1985, so we have been looking at the morning 
before 
the flight occurred not the night of it.

Contiguous US
http://tinyurl.com/2a6v9aq
Northeast
http://tinyurl.com/25oo3s8

These winds are not preferable for what one might want to see for an NFC kind 
of 
night.  Winds from the south or SSW.  I am hoping that the answer to this is 
that Ted has the wrong dates recorded, but that is for him to decide.  If you 
want to check the overnight hours, just change the date back one and change the 
time to 00Z, that should give you the evening sounding information.  


For the meteorologically savvy, we know it is not always possible to create 
these kinds of analyses from the sounding network we have in the US, so there 
is 
definitely some concern about either of the days of data, but it is no 
different 
than the data we get these days, so believe what you will, with the 
understanding that the dataset is not necessarily representative (but there is 
no current way to gauge that).  


So Ted, I have given you the tools to relive your meteorological past 
(excluding 
archived radar, which is much more involved and would only be reflectivity not 
velocity based on the date).  Tell me if you think you could have recorded the 
wrong date, or if you think you have the right dates, because that makes for an 
even more compelling story if it is the right dates.  



Good luck with reliving your past.  
Bryan Guarente
Instructional Designer/Meteorologist
The COMET Program
University Corporation for Atmospheric Research
Boulder, CO



  
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Re: [nfc-l] Dual-Polar Radar coming 2011-2012

2010-07-08 Thread Bryan Guarente
David, Andy, and other interested parties,
According to some Technical Information Notices put out by the National Weather 
Service (NWS), the beta test for live data starts on November 17th.  I haven't 
heard recently, but I thought the test bed was going to be Wichita, KS.  Plans 
may have changed since I last heard.  [Colby any word on this one?]  The 
Norman, 
OK radar is a research radar, and usually isn't available for regular viewing 
that I know of.  There are other dual-pol radars, multiple on trucks (used 
during Vortex 2) and a few that are portable, but not really mobile.  The 
Norman 
radar has been the go-to for dual-pol radars for some time in the U.S., but 
that 
will not likely turn over to be operational any time.  When the NWS upgrade to 
all the radars comes along, then most of the nation should be covered with this 
data.  There are other radars (phased array) on the horizon that might be 
useful 
for bird detection as well, but I don't know enough about them yet to make any 
solid statements.  


I wanted to make a quick clarification about David's original posting.  David 
mentioned that the radars will be able to get the drop-size distributions from 
their scans, but this is not exactly true.  The drop-size distributions may be 
inferred from the radar imagery, but this will be a poor assumption initially 
until we learn more about storms from this new source.  One of the things, we 
will get is actually hydrometeor characterization (precipitation type) from the 
radar scans.  However, the algorithm to identify the hydrometeors is not 
perfect, so there will be some issues.  According to the algorithm though, 
there 
is a distinct type/color for non-meteorological targets (i.e., birds, insects, 
and I think dust as well).  So it would be significantly easier to pick out 
possible birds on radar once these are in place, if we get access to this 
product.

 Bryan Guarente
Instructional Designer
The COMET Program
University Corporation for Atmospheric Research
Boulder, CO


  
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Re: Fw: [nfc-l] Big Migratory Push Next Week Eastern U.S??

2010-04-01 Thread Bryan Guarente
Andrew and others,
Reading the wind barbs/"thingies" is a simple process.  Here is a website that 
makes it easy to understand the surface observations like David (either one) 
posted.  

http://ww2010.atmos.uiuc.edu/%28Gh%29/guides/maps/sfcobs/home.rxml
or
http://tinyurl.com/yk25236
(same site just tiny).

 Bryan Guarente
Meteorologist/Instructional Designer
The COMET Program
University Corporation for Atmospheric Research (UCAR)
Boulder, CO



  
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Re: [nfc-l] Big NF tonight in Mid-Atlantic (US)?

2010-03-17 Thread Bryan Guarente
The question that  I like to ask of all this is which level of winds matters 
the most when talking about migration?  I am seeing that others are taking into 
account the surface wind direction (NWS observations and forecasts), but what 
about above that?  The winds change direction dramatically with height quite 
often, especially in areas where the surface friction is high like large 
cities, so how much are the higher level winds taken into account?  If the 
model predictions are right from this morning for tonight, then the winds in 
both of your locations about a kilometer up in the atmosphere should be out of 
the WNW.  Shouldn't that hinder the movement of birds tonight?

 Bryan Guarente
Meteorologist/Instructional Designer
The COMET Program
University Corporation for Atmospheric Research
Boulder, CO


  
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Re: [nfc-l] UK flight calling and Radar Locations

2009-09-30 Thread Bryan Guarente
Michael, Jeff Wells, and other radar enthusiasts,
For British Isles radar data, you can check the UK Met Office website here:
http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/weather/uk/radar/index.html

By clicking on the radar locations, you can see the local radar scans rather 
than the composite radar image for the UK.  This is where I would look to find 
radar imagery, but having never lived in the UK or had much need for looking at 
radar imagery in that country, I am not familiar with many of their radar 
websites.

Some of their radar sites are Doppler radars.  For a complete list check on 
page ten of this UK Met Office Radar document:
http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/corporate/library/factsheets/factsheet15.pdf

The problem with looking at these radar images is that they are filtered by the 
Met Office to remove "ground clutter".  This is often the same range of 
reflectivity where birds show up, so they are likely removed from the imagery 
displayed on the web.  It is specifically stated in their fact sheet that 
drizzle often isn't seen on their radar imagery, this usually means that most 
birds are not going to show up on their radar imagery (that is displayed on the 
web).  

On a slightly different topic, ever since Jeff Wells emailed this list 
wondering where to get radar imagery for other locations in the world aside 
from the US, I have been trying to track down all the radar locations for the 
globe and plot them in Google Earth.  Being able to find the radar locations is 
one thing, but finding the radar imagery that is real-time and readily 
available on the net for those sites can be impossible in some instances.  
African radars are notorious for this, because there isn't enough money, parts, 
and know-how to repair the radars if anything goes wrong with them.

You may wonder why I am only plotting the locations of the radars.  I am only 
plotting locations, because I was hoping the community might be able to help 
find the radar imagery sources.  Not being familiar with each country's weather 
service makes it hard to find images, and not every country has a weather 
service either which makes it even harder to find the images in some instances. 
 Other countries make their radar imagery available only to citizens accessing 
the imagery from that country.  If anyone knows where to get radar imagery for 
the radars found in the Google Earth file, please let me know.  I know 
currently where to get radar imagery for the US, the UK, Canada, South Korea, 
Australia, Israel, and Malta, with a few other leads.  This is not yet the 
entire radar set, but I will be updating the file through time and hope I can 
come close to a complete dataset for the globe.  

Having said all this, it isn't clear that every country will have radar imagery 
that isn't filtered, so it might be like the UK imagery that tries to filter 
out the "clutter" (including birds).  

Here is a link to the radar locations file:
http://homes.comet.ucar.edu/~guarente/Google.Earth/Radar/Radar.Locations.Network.Link.kmz

Open that file in Google Earth and you will see placemarks (thumbtacks) for all 
the radar ocations I have found, before I had real work impede my work flow on 
this side project.

 
If you have any questions about Google Earth use, or radars, feel free to ask.  

Bryan Guarente
Meteorologist and Instructional Designer
The COMET Program
University Corporation for Atmospheric Research
Boulder, CO


  
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Re:[nfc-l] any info on Canadian radar images

2009-09-02 Thread Bryan Guarente
Jeff and others,
Unless others know a source, I am unaware of anywhere that one can get 
unfiltered Canadian radar data.  Unlike the US, Environment Canada/ 
Meteorological Service of Canada data is private.  

However, I am working with some Environment Canada people right now to see if 
there is a source available for this that I might be able to make available, or 
that is already available.  

I'll keep you posted.

 Bryan Guarente
Instructional Designer
The COMET Program
University Corporation for Atmospheric Research
Boulder, CO


  
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Re: [nfc-l] United States Radar Echoes - September 1, 2009

2009-09-01 Thread Bryan Guarente
NFC-enthusiasts,
Jeff pointed out the radar echoes tonight which are pretty impressive, 
especially along the Carolina and Virginia coasts.  Being a meteorologist and a 
birdwatcher, this is of great interest to me.  For those who are interested in 
sources of information about the weather patterns aside from using the radar to 
detect objects, you can get some information on my personal website:  
http://homes.comet.ucar.edu/~guarente/birdweather/index.htm  I have compiled 
the links I often use for my own meteorological exploration, as well as sites 
that would be useful specifically for bird migration.

I personally am a fan of checking the forecast streamlines for bird migration 
as this is a good predictor of which nights will be good for migration, but 
does not necessarily dictate when there will be detectable NFCs, as other 
meteorological factors play in to this.  To see the streamlines you can go 
here: http://homes.comet.ucar.edu/~guarente/birdweather/stream.htm  Streamlines 
show the direction weightless particles would travel if released in the wind 
field.

All times on this page are plotted on the top of the images, but they are noted 
in UTC.  To see the current UTC time, you can go here: 
http://www.time.gov/timezone.cgi?UTC/s/0/java  Also, the maps differ in height 
from the surface through 700mb (or hPa).  These maps use pressure as the height 
coordinate, but can be roughly thought of as 900mb = .5km above sea-level, 
850mb = 1.0km above sea-level, and 700mb = 1.5km above sea-level.  The 
"Surface" maps plotted here are the surface of the earth following topography.  
Sorry to all those individuals outside of the US, I only have access to the US 
model data, so I cannot currently plot other locations aside from North 
America.  

Where the current streamlines have a component pointing toward the south the 
radar echoes are brightest, except for where there is significant topography to 
block the radar beam (the western 1/3 of the US).

Back to the radar: I am hoping someone will be able to point me in the 
direction of a publication that discusses the radar cross-section or 
backscattering properties of a bird in flight.  Are there any papers out there 
about this?  I have found the papers that mention that birds show up on radar, 
but none of them seem to mention the backscattering properties of the birds.  

The current radars in the United States are very sensitive to the size of the 
object they are reflecting waves off, up to a point.  This can mean very 
different echoes for drizzle drops, rain drops, small hail, very large hail, 
and birds because of the scattering regime in which it lies (click link to read 
wikipedia article about scattering).  Most particles in the atmosphere that are 
detected by weather radars are in the Rayleigh scattering regime, but birds 
don't always fit in this regime, often extending in to the Mie scattering 
regime which is not ideal for US weather radar detection.  However, that is 
assuming that a bird is a sphere, which is a poor assumption.  I am hoping to 
get my hands on some papers about the scattering properties of birds that show 
how the radar waves reflect, but have yet to find any.  There are some 
algorithm papers available by Dinevich, but these lack the actual scattering 
properties.  Anyone have a reference for me?

Thanks for any references you may have,

Bryan Guarente
Instructional Designer
The COMET Program
University Corporation for Atmospheric Research
Boulder, CO


  
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