Re: [NSWolves] Karl Henry Stats [SEC=UNCLASSIFIED]

2011-12-20 Thread Marcus Chantry
In the words of Hilaire Belloc: It has long been recognised by public men of all kinds, that statistics come under the head of lying, and that no lie is so false or inconclusive as that which is based on statistics. On 20/12/2011, at 10:42 , Steven Millward wrote: Nothing. I showed you a

Re: [NSWolves] Karl Henry Stats [SEC=UNCLASSIFIED]

2011-12-20 Thread Steven Millward
Interesting choice of quote. Belloc was an anti-Semetic, anti-Islamic Catholic who asserted that the Theory of Evolution had been completely discredited. Someone else who didn't like facts getting in the way of dogmatic personal belief and superstition. On 20 December 2011 19:51, Marcus Chantry

RE: [NSWolves] Karl Henry Stats [SEC=UNCLASSIFIED]

2011-12-19 Thread Jeremy Tonks
You've missed the point Lee ;) How much is he being paid? I'm not sure 1 game without him this season gives us any statistical validity?! I think I'd like to see which games he missed (as in opponents) as well. _ From: nswolves@googlegroups.com

Re: [NSWolves] Karl Henry Stats [SEC=UNCLASSIFIED]

2011-12-19 Thread Marcus Chantry
Stats can be made to support any agenda that a person wants to push. Climate Change is the perfect example of how both sides can manipulate statistics to support their own agenda. On 20/12/2011, at 08:36 , Jeremy Tonks wrote: You’ve missed the point Lee ;) How much is he being paid?

RE: [NSWolves] Karl Henry Stats [SEC=UNCLASSIFIED]

2011-12-19 Thread Jeremy Tonks
Guess what I'm reading on line at the moment Marcus. _ From: nswolves@googlegroups.com [mailto:nswolves@googlegroups.com] On Behalf Of Marcus Chantry Sent: Tuesday, 20 December 2011 8:40 AM To: nswolves@googlegroups.com Subject: Re: [NSWolves] Karl Henry Stats [SEC=UNCLASSIFIED

RE: [NSWolves] Karl Henry Stats [SEC=UNCLASSIFIED]

2011-12-19 Thread Morris, Lee SGT
the sender and delete the email. From: nswolves@googlegroups.com [mailto:nswolves@googlegroups.com] On Behalf Of Marcus Chantry Sent: Tuesday, 20 December 2011 07:40 To: nswolves@googlegroups.com Subject: Re: [NSWolves] Karl Henry Stats [SEC=UNCLASSIFIED] Stats can

RE: [NSWolves] Karl Henry Stats [SEC=UNCLASSIFIED]

2011-12-19 Thread Paul Crowe
] On Behalf Of Morris, Lee SGT Sent: Tuesday, 20 December 2011 8:50 AM To: nswolves@googlegroups.com Subject: RE: [NSWolves] Karl Henry Stats [SEC=UNCLASSIFIED] UNCLASSIFIED Thats right, lets have our own poll then. For MM = Against MM (I'm against but only if a suitable replacement

RE: [NSWolves] Karl Henry Stats [SEC=UNCLASSIFIED]

2011-12-19 Thread Jeremy Tonks
was a joke Joyce) _ From: nswolves@googlegroups.com [mailto:nswolves@googlegroups.com] On Behalf Of Morris, Lee SGT Sent: Tuesday, 20 December 2011 8:50 AM To: nswolves@googlegroups.com Subject: RE: [NSWolves] Karl Henry Stats [SEC=UNCLASSIFIED] UNCLASSIFIED Thats right, lets have our

RE: [NSWolves] Karl Henry Stats [SEC=UNCLASSIFIED]

2011-12-19 Thread LEESE Matthew
. The stats support it you know. From: nswolves@googlegroups.com [mailto:nswolves@googlegroups.com] On Behalf Of Paul Crowe Sent: Tuesday, 20 December 2011 8:56 AM To: nswolves@googlegroups.com Subject: RE: [NSWolves] Karl Henry Stats [SEC=UNCLASSIFIED] I really loved MM

Re: [NSWolves] Karl Henry Stats [SEC=UNCLASSIFIED]

2011-12-19 Thread Steven Millward
Interesting point of view from someone that works in insurance, an industry that is entirely based on the statistical pricing of risk. Please take the stats I have presented and make them support your agenda. I can send you the spreadsheet if you want to have a go. I understand it must be

Re: [NSWolves] Karl Henry Stats [SEC=UNCLASSIFIED]

2011-12-19 Thread Marcus Chantry
you are correct that insurance is very heavily dependant on statistics for assessing and pricing for risks. However, I am not an actuary and my role for the best part of 17 years has been to challenge actuaries to ensure that my products are affordable and sustainable, in effect disproving

Re: [NSWolves] Karl Henry Stats [SEC=UNCLASSIFIED]

2011-12-19 Thread Steven Millward
See you're trying to discredit me by the absurd. The last bastion of a scoundrel. I say there is a need for a manager to do the things that managers do, but that beyond a certain level of competence and experience there is very little difference in the influence they have on performance. We

Re: [NSWolves] Karl Henry Stats [SEC=UNCLASSIFIED]

2011-12-19 Thread Marcus Chantry
ok, let's see how much you trust your statistics. How much are you willing to place on a bet that Wolves will finish exactly fourth from bottom? On 20/12/2011, at 10:20 , Steven Millward wrote: See you're trying to discredit me by the absurd. The last bastion of a scoundrel. I say

Re: [NSWolves] Karl Henry Stats [SEC=UNCLASSIFIED]

2011-12-19 Thread Steven Millward
Nothing. I showed you a table that showed that 18 of 20 teams were within 3 places of the forecast and 15 were within 2 places. There is an element of luck and other factors in this as I explained in my earlier response to Matt. It's not a perfect model but it explains 90% of variability. On