Dear sobat OB, mendatang hari2 baik para surfer & investor. 2 artikel. thanks.
MARKET SNAPSHOT Market still facing headwinds from credit, economy By Carla Mozee <http://www.marketwatch.com/news/mailto.asp?x=99+109+111+122+101+101&y=C\ arla+Mozee&z=marketwatch.com&guid=%7Bdd940cd1-782b-4505-8d04-08e4efa42ce\ b%7D&siteid=mktw> , MarketWatch Last update: 12:01 a.m. EST Feb. 16, 2008 SAN FRANCISCO (MarketWatch) -- Investors will look for U.S. stock gains to continue for a second consecutive week, but the market faces high hurdles from the ongoing credit crisis and recession fears that continue to hang over the market. Market players will turn their attention to results from retailing giant Wal-Mart Stores Inc. ( WMT <http://www.marketwatch.com/tools/quotes/quotes.asp?symb=WMT> 49.44, -0.53, -1.1%) and a consumer-price inflation report that will shed more light on consumer activity in a sluggish economy. A close eye will also be paid to action in the bond-insurance market, after New York Governor Eliot Spitzer warned Thursday that bond insurers have to move quickly to recapitalize themselves to keep their AAA ratings. Fresh off the central bank's downgrade of the U.S. economy, investors will return from Monday's holiday to reports from the beleaguered housing sector and results from J.C. Penney Co. (JCP <http://www.marketwatch.com/quotes/jcp> : A three-day snapback rally, interrupted by a sell-off on Thursday, was enough to pull the major stock indexes higher this week, but it wasn't enough to convince Joe Liro, equity strategist at Stone & McCarthy Research Associates, that the market is ready to extend gains. "As soon as you got some upside, people came in to sell. When you're selling bounces rather than buying dips, that's a clear indication that the overall trend is lower," he said. Wall Street also will watch for results from European banking firms, many of which have been hit by the U.S. mortgage meltdown. While concerns about recession loom large on Wall Street, Liro said that he considers the weak performance of the financial sector as the most "debilitating" factor for the market. If the constant "litany of admissions of bigger write-downs and charges continues, it's has to be a negative next week," he added. Britain's Barclays PLC (BCS <http://www.marketwatch.com/tools/quotes/quotes.asp?symb=BCS> 34.12, -0.53, -1.5%) will report on Tuesday and France's BNP Paribas (FR:013110 <http://www.marketwatch.com/quotes/fr/013110> : news <http://www.marketwatch.com/tools/quotes/news.asp?symb=FR:013110&dist=mk\ twstorynews> , chart <http://www.marketwatch.com/tools/quotes/intchart.asp?symb=FR:013110&dis\ t=mktwstorychart> , profile <http://www.marketwatch.com/tools/quotes/profile.asp?symb=FR:013110&dist\ =mktwstoryprofile> ) , which has warned of lower fourth-quarter profit, will report Wednesday. This week, Swiss banking giant UBS AG (UBS <http://www.marketwatch.com/quotes/ubs> : 33.14, -0.80, -2.4%) recorded a $13.7 billion write-down in the fourth quarter related to its extensive exposure to the U.S. mortgage market. Results are also due from Societe Generale (FR:013080 <http://www.marketwatch.com/quotes/fr/013080> : news <http://www.marketwatch.com/tools/quotes/news.asp?symb=FR:013080&dist=mk\ twstorynews> , chart <http://www.marketwatch.com/tools/quotes/intchart.asp?symb=FR:013080&dis\ t=mktwstorychart> , profile <http://www.marketwatch.com/tools/quotes/profile.asp?symb=FR:013080&dist\ =mktwstoryprofile> ) , the French bank in the middle of a rogue-trading scandal that is expected to result in more than $7 billion of losses at the company. Steven Sachs, head of trading at Rydex Investments, foresees little chance that stocks will move higher next week, particularly if Wednesday's consumer-price index report shows that consumers shelled out more money for goods and services in January. A miss in expectations for CPI readings to remain steady "given Federal Reserve Chairman Ben Bernanke's testimony on the Hill and [Treasury Secretary Henry] Paulson's claim that inflation is not a concern and it will moderate" would hit stocks, said Sachs, who met the monetary officials' view about inflation with skepticism. Economists polled by MarketWatch forecast the CPI to remain unchanged at 0.3%. Stripping out volatile prices for food and energy, core consumer prices are expected to stay at 0.2%. As investors prepped for the upcoming inflation report and highly anticipated results from Wal-Mart, the world's largest retailer, signs abounded that consumers (whose spending drives about 70% of the U.S. economy) are becoming increasingly reluctant to part from their cash. Consumer-electronics retailer Best Buy Co. (BBY <http://www.marketwatch.com/tools/quotes/quotes.asp?symb=BBY> 44.62, -1.15, -2.5%) cut its full-year earnings forecast Friday because of lackluster sales after the holiday season, then consumer sentiment tumbled to its lowest level since 1992, according to a survey by the University of Michigan and Reuters. Those developments followed Bernanke's congressional testimony Thursday said that the central bank is projecting slower growth for 2008 than in previous forecasts. Investors will hear more from the Fed on Wednesday when minutes from its most recent meeting will be released. Investors also will get a look on Friday at the Philadelphia Federal Reserve's manufacturing survey, whose poor showing last month set off alarm bells to many on Wall Street that recession was on its way. "Bad news is we are probably going to be in a recession. The good news is that while rate cuts cannot stop a recession, they can help to reduce the severity," said Al Goldman, chief market strategist at A.G. Edwards. "But after the rally, the dominant trend is still down, and I think that's probably going to be the direction on balance next week." The Telltale Signs of Recession Here are four indicators with good track records at predicting downturns. Watch them to see where the economy is likely to go next by James Cooper <http://www.businessweek.com/bios/James_Cooper.htm> The economic data are taking on a new urgency. Recently, a few of the economy's vital signs have been erratic. Most notably, a popular measure of service-sector activity plunged to an all-time low, and payrolls last month posted the first monthly decline in nearly 4½ years. The trouble is, that's what the data often do when the economy is sinking into recession: They surprise, sometimes shockingly, on the downside. Most reports in the coming weeks will almost certainly look glum. But just how glum? Economists' expectations have dropped sharply in only the past four weeks. The 51 forecasters surveyed by Blue Chip Economic Indicators now expect first-half growth to average only 0.8%, down from their 1.6% projection in January, and the number of outright recession forecasts is growing. More negative data surprises would validate the pessimists' view. However, four indicators will be especially important over the next few weeks: new filings for unemployment insurance every Thursday, the February manufacturing and nonmanufacturing indexes from the Institute for Supply Management (ISM) on Mar. 3 and 5, and the Labor Dept.'s February employment report on Mar. 7. Why these? They are timely, indicative of broad business trends, and sensitive to swings in activity, and two of them were unexpectedly weak in January. Measure the Job Losses Start with the labor markets. Payrolls don't just edge lower in a recession, as they did in January, falling 17,000. They drop like a stone. In the 2001 recession, for example, which began in March, job gains slowed to a mere 15,000 per month in the first quarter of the year. Then in April they plummeted 281,000, with losses averaging about 200,000 per month for the rest of the year. In a 2008 recession scenario, February's job report would revise January payrolls to show a larger loss, and February employment would drop 100,000 or so. Weekly unemployment claims gave a warning of the big 2001 job losses, and they would likely do the same in 2008. By mid-March in 2001, the four-week average of claims had jumped to about 390,000 new filings per week, up from about 340,000 in mid-December. Right now, claims are averaging 335,000 through early February. That's consistent with nothing worse than anemic economic growth, suggesting slower hiring rates rather than rising layoffs. Based on past trends, the four-week average would have to jump into the 375,000-400,000 range to foretell recession-like job losses. How to Read the ISM Data All eyes will also be on the ISM's index of nonmanufacturing activity, mainly service industries, for confirmation of its January swoon, to 44.6, from 53.2 in December. Readings under 50 indicate business is contracting. The index goes back only to 1997, so comparisons to earlier recessions are shaky. But based on the index's past relationship with economic growth, its January level, if maintained for the quarter, would be consistent with a highly unlikely double-digit plunge in real gross domestic product. Also, the sharp decline in the employment component of the overall index would imply payroll losses during the quarter averaging nearly 160,000 per month. The drop in the ISM's nonmanufacturing index contradicts the ISM's manufacturing gauge, which has a better and longer record at spotting recessions. Over time, the two have tracked each other fairly well, but the factory index rose in January, to 50.7 from 48.4, which did not put it at a recession level. Historically, a nonmanufacturing index at January's nadir would be associated with a manufacturing reading of about 42, which would set off alarms. The recession script now? February's nonmanufacturing index would fail to rebound enough to take it out of the danger zone, while the manufacturing gauge would reverse course and join it there. Economic reports other than these four will also be important in divining the economy's path in the first half. However, if the numbers are going to start singing recession, this quartet will lead the chorus.
