Ambil positifnya dari artikel tadi hehehe..
Stocks retreated in the U.S. and Asia, government bonds jumped and
credit-default swaps climbed after Dubai World ---> semua TA market global
sebelum kejadian dubai emang udah minta koreksi..koreksi dalem lebih cepat
lebih baik...ini koreksi besar bukan crash kata siapa (lupa) yg bilang di milis
ini sebelumnya..gw setuju dgn dia
“This may be the trigger to allow for the market to take a rest and pull back,”
Mobius said in a Bloomberg-----> koreksi biar bisa loncat lebih tinggi lagi...
hehehe..bentaran lagi ada counter dari WB nih.....Mobius vs WB ??
Dario Amran
--- Pada Sab, 28/11/09, AB <asepbuh...@yahoo.com> menulis:
Dari: AB <asepbuh...@yahoo.com>
Judul: [ob] Dubai Means Emerging Markets ‘Correction’ to Mobius (Update2)
Kepada: "obrolan-bandar" <obrolan-bandar@yahoogroups.com>
Tanggal: Sabtu, 28 November, 2009, 8:58 AM
si mobius ama roubini ngomong apa sih?
om DE tolong terjemahin lagi yak.
Dubai Means Emerging Markets ‘Correction’ to Mobius (Update2)
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By Zeb Eckert, Reinie Booysen and Rita Nazareth
Nov. 27 (Bloomberg) -- Dubai’s attempt to reschedule debt may spur a
“correction” in emerging markets, according to Mark Mobius, while the global
slump in equities shows government spending alone won’t protect financial
markets, Arnab Das of Roubini Global Economics said.
Mobius, who oversees about $25 billion of developing-nation assets as chairman
of Templeton Asset Management Ltd., said a 20 percent drop for shares is “quite
possible.” Stock volatility and risk aversion may jump as countries and
companies default on loans, according to Das, the head of market research and
strategy at RGE, the advisory firm founded by Nouriel Roubini.
Stocks retreated in the U.S. and Asia, government bonds jumped and
credit-default swaps climbed after Dubai World, the government investment
company burdened by $59 billion of liabilities, sought to delay repayment of
debt. The MSCI Emerging Markets Index has slumped 3.9 percent in the past two
days after more than doubling from its 2009 low in March.
“This may be the trigger to allow for the market to take a rest and pull back,”
Mobius said in a Bloomberg Television interview by phone from Hanoi. “I felt
that there would be a significant correction in what is an ongoing bull
market,” he said. “If Dubai has to default, that could start a wave of defaults
in other areas.”
‘Sweet Spot’
MSCI’s gauge of emerging nations has advanced 66 percent this year, more than
double the gain in developed markets, as a rally in commodities buoyed stocks
from Brazil to Russia and economists estimated that China was the only economy
of the world’s 10 largest to expand in 2009.
Mobius said emerging market stocks were in a “sweet spot” in September 2006,
before MSCI’s index of emerging countries surged 71 percent. He failed to
predict the retreat that began in October 2007 and told Bloomberg radio in
August 2008 that a 28 percent decline in the index was “overdone.” The measure
lost more than half its value in the next two months, falling to a four-year
low on Oct. 27, 2008.
The MSCI World Index of 23 developed countries has added 24 percent this year,
rebounding from its biggest annual decline on record as the Federal Reserve
spent, lent or guaranteed $11.6 trillion and held interest rates near zero to
unlock credit markets and end the first simultaneous recessions in the U.S.,
Europe and Japan since World War II.
‘Risk Aversion’
Dubai, which borrowed $80 billion in a four-year construction boom to transform
its economy into a tourism and financial hub, suffered the world’s steepest
property slump in the recession. Home prices fell 50 percent from their 2008
peak, according to Frankfurt-based Deutsche Bank AG.
“We’re bound to see a rise in risk aversion,” Das, who is based in London, said
in a telephone interview yesterday. “The Dubai situation signifies that
although the major central banks around the world have stabilized the financial
system, they can’t make all the excesses simply disappear. We still have to
work out those balance-sheet stresses. The recovery is proceeding, but
significant challenges still lie ahead.”
Das, the former head of emerging-markets strategy at Dresdner Kleinwort, joined
RGE last month to lead a team that advises on allocations in stocks, bonds,
interest-rate products, commodities and currencies in developed and emerging
markets.
Roubini’s Calls
Roubini, an economics professor at New York University and chairman of RGE,
predicted the financial crisis that spurred $1.7 trillion in credit losses and
asset writedowns at global financial companies. Banks have raised $1.5 trillion
since 2007 to combat the credit crisis, data compiled by Bloomberg show.
“In some countries and sectors, debtors will be able to get by because
government intervention has made it easier for them to refinance,” said Das.
“In other places, excessively leveraged debtors, who always get access to too
much credit during a boom, cannot roll over their debt and will default.”
Roubini’s 2006 warning about the financial crisis helped shield clients from
the worst slump in global equities since at least 1988. He said in March that
the stock rally that began that month was a “dead-cat bounce” and that it may
“fizzle” in May. The MSCI World has rallied 66 percent since March 9, and the
Standard & Poor’s 500 Index has climbed 61 percent in the steepest rally since
the Great Depression.
‘Another Hit’ to Banks
“It’s very clear there will be another hit to some banks, banks around the
world, some of which have been more heavily insulated from the crisis,” Das
told Bloomberg Television. “It doesn’t look like the hit is going to be big
enough to bring them down, but it is going to be a problem.”
The S&P 500 dropped 1.7 percent to 1,091.49 at 1 p.m. in New York today after
U.S. markets were closed for the Thanksgiving holiday yesterday.
Emerging-market stocks were today’s biggest losers. South Korea’s Kospi index
fell 4.7 percent, the steepest drop since January. Samsung Engineering Co.
tumbled 9.8 percent, leading declines among construction stocks on concern
orders may slow in the United Arab Emirates, South Korean builders’ biggest
overseas market.
The MSCI Emerging Markets Index dropped 1.8 percent. The gauge has still surged
107 percent since Oct. 27, 2008.
“A 20 percent correction is not unusual in such a bull market, so that’s quite
possible and we should be ready for that,” Mobius said. “There’s no way that
anyone can specifically predict exactly when and to what extent, but certainly
there will be corrections along the way.”
‘Avalanche’
The retreat in emerging markets may be compounded by Vietnam’s currency
devaluation and an “avalanche” of initial share sales, Mobius said.
The State Bank of Vietnam devalued its currency this week and raised interest
rates to combat inflation and narrow the trade deficit. Vietnam’s benchmark
stock gauge plunged 12 percent this week, the most since the period ended
0ctober 2008. The VN Index rose 1.7 percent today, the first gain since Nov.
19. Mobius said he’s “bullish on Vietnam, but over the short and medium term we
have to look very carefully at what’s happening.”
Europe’s Dow Jones Stoxx 600 Index rose 1.2 percent after falling as much as
1.8 percent. The index tumbled 3.3 percent yesterday, the biggest plunge since
April. The VStoxx Index, which gauges the cost of using options to protect
against declines in the Euro Stoxx 50, fell 6.6 percent to 28.36 after surging
28 percent yesterday, the biggest gain in a year.
Volatility Gauge
The VIX Index, which measures the cost of using options as insurance against
declines in the S&P 500 over the next month, climbed 21 percent, the most since
October 30, to 24.74. The measure has dropped 38 percent this year after
surging last November to a record 80.86, a level almost four times higher than
its average over its two-decade history.
The so-called correlation coefficient that measures how closely markets rise
and fall together reached the highest level ever in June, with the S&P 500 and
benchmark measures for raw materials, developing-country equities and hedge
funds rallying in tandem, according to data compiled by Bloomberg. Oil has
jumped 71 percent this year and the Reuters/Jefferies CRB Index of 19 raw
materials climbed 19 percent.
“All this should magnify differentiation between riskier and less risky asset
classes and names, after a couple of quarters in which correlations have risen
sharply as market participants put on risk pretty much across the board,” Das
said. “That will make it harder to make money simply by riding the liquidity
wave from central banks. People are going to have to start focusing even more
on the fundamentals.”
To contact the reporters on this story: Zeb Eckert in Hong Kong at
zecke...@bloomberg. net; Reinie Booysen in Singapore at rbooy...@bloomberg.
net; Rita Nazareth in Sao Paulo at rnazar...@bloomberg .net.
Last Updated: November 27, 2009 16:49 EST
Rgds
AB
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