kek nya dow rally kalo presidennya dari demokrat deh...tiap kali dari republik kebanyakan crash...George Bush senior tahun 87-88 dow crash berat...George W Bush 2008 crash berat...bill clinton, obama dari demokrat dow rally.... Ronald Wilson Reagen (Republik) Tahun 1981 --> dow juga turun banyak sekitar tahun 82-83 Orang2 republik amerika ga becus ?? Dario Amran
________________________________ Dari: victor_sperandeo <victor_speran...@yahoo.com> Kepada: obrolan-bandar@yahoogroups.com Terkirim: Rab, 9 Desember, 2009 12:37:37 Judul: [ob] Solusi Untuk Recovery Ekonomi US: Goreng Dow Jones! Bull-in-Chief Daniel Fisher, 12.04.09, 09:00 AM EST Forbes Asia Magazine dated December 14, 2009 The U.S. President could use a Bill Clinton-style stock market rally. President Obama had better pray for a rally, bigger than the one that's already taken the Standard & Poor's 500 average up 64% from its low this year. A continued stock market boom is one of the few things that will pump enough money into the economy to make a dent in the huge projected deficits ahead. It's called the wealth effect: People spend more when they think they're worth more. Rallies also pump money into the U.S. Treasury, as rich people take profits and pay tax on them. Even without a new health care entitlement, the federal deficit is expected to hit 11% of gross domestic product by the end of this year. That's up from 1.8% in 2007. The interest tab will climb to 2.6% of GDP from 2% in 2007, held down only by the Federal Reserve's voracious purchases of Treasurys and mortgage-backed bonds. Economist Ray C. Fair of Yale University estimates that without big changes in policy, the national debt will rise to 75% of GDP by 2020 from 50% now, while interest expense will rise to 4.3% of GDP. Some economists have suggested the government should let the dollar fall. It seems like a clever idea, because a cheaper dollar not only boosts American exports but also cheats foreign holders of Treasury debt by paying them in debased currency. But it won't work, says Fair, because the falling dollar eventually will increase inflation (Saudi Arabia will demand more dollars for its oil) and drive up interest rates and therefore the cost of servicing the debt. For every one-percentage- point increase in inflation, the Fed can be expected to raise short-term interest rates by 0.86 of a percentage point, he says. That just raises the cost of rolling over Treasury bills. At the same time, consumers will reduce spending as inflation erodes their real earnings and perceived wealth. "You cannot inflate your way out of the debt problem," says Fair. The two other paths to lower deficits are raising taxes or lowering spending. They both can get the job done but at enormous cost to the economy. A permanent tax increase equal to 4% of GDP, or $500 billion a year, would keep the debt-to-GDP ratio in 2020 at 47% but cost $3 trillion in economic output over that period. Cutting federal spending risks nearly the same backfiring effect because so many dollars now flow directly to households. So what's left to fight the red ink? That massive stock market rally. Since households spend 4 cents of every $1 in increase in wealth, a 30% increase in the $14.3 trillion U.S. stock market next year would pump $170 billion into spending. With the doubling effect as those dollars cascade through the economy, that would be the equivalent of a $340 billion stimulus program. Bill Clinton was the recipient of such a gift when the S&P climbed 230% between 1993 and 1999. But remember what happened afterward: The market plunged 45% as the tech bubble burst. An Obama rally of 30% would require the S&P to climb past its current price/earnings multiple of 21 times estimated 2010 earnings of $53 a share to something more like a 27 p/e. Then we're back in bubble territory. Says Fair, "You can't run an economy forever on the basis of the stock market going up." http://www.forbes. com/global/ 2009/1214/ companies- president- obama-clinton- stocks-bull- in-chief. html Buat sendiri desain eksklusif Messenger Pingbox Anda sekarang! Membuat tempat chat pribadi di blog Anda sekarang sangatlah mudah. http://id.messenger.yahoo.com/pingbox/
