dear...tolong di translate dunk...singkatnya aja,ok?tq
MERRY CHRISTMAS 2008 AND HAPPY NEW YEAR 2009
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Dari: Yuliawati tan <yuliawati_ta...@yahoo.com>
Kepada: obrolan-bandar@yahoogroups.com
Terkirim: Jumat, 2 Januari, 2009 11:19:25
Topik: [obrolan-bandar] Trs: New Year Longer Term Specific Views
dear all ini sekedar contekan dr negri sebelah moga2 berguna....silahkan di
baca......
Terkirim: Jumat, 2 Januari, 2009 07:10:09
Topik: New Year Longer Term Specific Views
Dear Buddies, Frens, Folks and Foes,
Why did I say to short all the way in 2009........ ...
1. The S&P 500 will re-test the 750 lows in the first half of 2009, and
we will close below 700 by the end of 2009. This bear market will not end in
2009.
2. Crude oil will stay below $75/barrel for all of 2009.
3. Gold will break out above $1100/oz.
4. The VIX will hit 100 for the first time ever.
5. Posted unemployment will hit 10.5%. Total Unemployment (U-6) will
hit 20%. The Employment Diffusion Index will hit the teens.
6. Commercial real estate values will drop 30-40%. Land development,
office space, warehouses, shopping malls, hotels, and resorts will do the
worst. Large multi-family properties will do the “best” because they will house
all the folks who will lose their homes.
7. 20% of retailers will file for Chapter 11 bankruptcy.
8. The bailout money will run out and the Fed/Treasury will request an
additional package…and be denied. This debate will drag on for weeks and weeks.
9. Numerous local municipalities and/or states will go bankrupt. Many
states will be unable to pay out full unemployment benefits.
10. The U.S.will be involved in another war.
11. A major terrorist attack, economic/financial, and/or political
crisis will hit the U.S.
12. Martial law will be declared and FEMA’s Executive Orders
10990-11921 will be activated by the President. Military units will be deployed
on the streets of America. The UN will continue to ship large numbers of
military vehicles to the USmostly via Port of Beaumont, TX. There will be a
massive build up of military equipment. Ok, maybe not the last one, but you get
the idea. I don’t see how our bear market (in the worst crisis since the Great
Depression) can last for only 2 years. The tech bear lasted for more than 2
years and that didn’t even involve a global credit crisis! Bulls should not get
too comfortable in 2009. There will be disappointments.
I think this will once again be a trader’s market, rewarding those that are
nimble. Join me in battle next year and let’s slay this dragon and make some
serious money!
Follow me then...... and remember, who will give you these information for free.
Take Care AND Good Luck!!!
TKJoe
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