First ever Indonesia Stock Exchange crash... 17/12? Or just worst Indonesia Stock Exchange index dive
For the rest of you, http://www.spsfv.org/gettinghelp.htm (disclaimer on:) _____ From: obrolan-bandar@yahoogroups.com [mailto:[EMAIL PROTECTED] On Behalf Of gdbrook Sent: 17 Desember 2007 15:18 To: obrolan-bandar@yahoogroups.com Subject: Re: [obrolan-bandar] Re: Bearish in mind? Well, the majority is USUALLY wrong.. I couldn't be worry no more. Hopelessness. Ship is already halfway sinking, No life jacket. I'll dive without O2 tank. Grasp tight on what already held. May a mermaid down there waiting. gdbrook On Dec 17, 2007 12:02 PM, jos_martino <[EMAIL PROTECTED]> wrote: Don't worry JKSE will be find. If they have a recession ( I think an economic slow down instead of recession), benefit for us because their money will flow into emerging market and soon will come to Indo as well. rgs, JM --- In obrolan-bandar@yahoogroups.com <mailto:obrolan-bandar%40yahoogroups.com> , gdbrook <[EMAIL PROTECTED]> wrote: > > Try this.., only Buffett and Greenspan said US Economy in the edge of > recession, among all president's men in economic says no. > Very minority. Supposed both of them are right, then how should we think on > JKSE ? > gdbrook > > > > On Dec 16, 2007 11:32 PM, Dean Earwicker <[EMAIL PROTECTED]> wrote: > > > Bearish in mind? Good. I like when everybody think of bearish, because > > majority is usually *wrong*. You know, most of smart players out there are > > good CONTRARIANS. > > > > Successful trader is the one who masters the *herding game.* Read the > > article below, and you'll understand what it's about. Read it real slow and > > carefully. > > * > > After you read the article below, get a piece of paper and a pencil, and > > write down THREE of the most HATED and LOVED stocks. Whatever you write, > > these stocks are supposed to be NOT ON YOUR PORTFOLIO. > > > > Why? > > > > Love and hate are personal and sentimental. When you get sentimental, you > > will be irrational. When you get irrational, you lose. > > > > So go ahead, read the article :) > > * > > Regards, > > DE > > > > > > http://www.financialsense.com/Market/wood/2003/1024.html > > > > * > > "The Majority is Usually Wrong"* > > > > At first it may be difficult to accept such a statement as fact. So let us > > pursue the subject a bit. Let us start by dividing the population of this > > planet into two groups, the minority and the majority. > > > > It would seem that only a minority of the people on this planet have the > > ability and ambition to study hard, to figure out ways to accumulate wealth, > > and to raise their standard of living. The majority are apparently unable > > or unwilling to acquire the knowledge and take the action which would > > enable them to do the same. > > > > Another difficulty of the majority is the herd instinct which they follow. The > > desire to go along with a large group is evident among people and animals. This > > is caused by the idea that there is safety in numbers - to think and act > > like the majority of other people. Anyone who dares to be different from > > the crowd is not considered to be "normal." > > > > One of the big troubles with modern society is the conformity of ideas and > > action. I call it the mediocrity of conformity. Many people are actually > > afraid to be different - to pursue unusual ideas. But the road to success > > is paved with unusual ideas, and traveled by unusual people who dare to be > > different. In our modern society it frequently pays to be unusual and > > different. > > > > Another trouble with the majority is that they have a tendency to believe > > what they are told, especially if something is repeated frequently. The > > majority find it is easier to accept the statements of others than to think > > for themselves. > > > > The minority, who do not believe what they are told, must put forth > > intensive effort in their search for truth and knowledge. Sometimes the > > quest for knowledge is like sailing on an uncharted sea with nothing to > > guide you except the facts you learn as you go along. The success of your > > voyage depends on how well you can separate facts from fantasy, how well you > > can analyze the facts you discover, and how well you use them to reach the > > right conclusions. > > > > In the stock market, the majority are inclined to believe what they are > > told in the form of tips, rumors and advice. The minority believe only > > what they know to be facts, and then reach their own conclusions by > > analyzing those facts. > > > > Still another weakness of the majority is their disbelief in change. Most > > people do not expect or prepare for changes in the status quo. They > > believe that things will continue indefinitely just as they are right now. When > > the stock market goes up, the majority expect it to continue going up > > indefinitely. They do not bother to think about the time when the market > > will change its course and turn downward. > > > > At the same time, the minority know that change is inevitable, and they > > are looking ahead, trying to figure how to tell when the market makes the > > change, and planning what actions they will take at that time. The > > minority know that every bull market has been followed by a bear market, and > > that every bear market had been followed by a bull market. The successful > > investor must possess a mind which is flexible enough to accept changing > > conditions. > > > > The majority of investors are almost paralyzed by their opinions, because > > it is difficult to change an opinion which is well established. When a > > person has a definite opinion, there is the danger that he might not be able > > to change it until too late to take the proper action. > > > > Almost everybody tries to form an opinion of the market. Many investors > > are constantly gathering information to help them form the correct opinion. As > > the opinion forms, the investor subconsciously becomes more receptive to > > the ideas, which help to substantiate his opinion. > > > > There are always plenty of arguments for both sides of a case. Since the > > equal acceptance of arguments from both sides would result in frustrating > > confusion, a person must choose which to accept. Frequently a person > > accepts the arguments which support his own opinion, and he ignores the > > opposite side of the case. It is human nature to do so. Many people > > actively consider and publicize only the arguments which will support their > > opinions. The process is called rationalization. > > > > The majority seem to have an uncanny ability to buy near the top of a bull > > market, and sell near the bottom of a bear market. Apparently that is the > > way things must be, otherwise who would the minority sell their stocks to > > near the top - and who would they buy stocks from near the bottom? > > > > One should try to think and act like the minority, for there is little > > hope for the success of the majority. There is not enough room at the top > > for the majority. > > > > Realizing that the majority is usually wrong in their action near the tops > > of bull markets and the bottoms of bear markets, I looked for ways to > > recognize majority action at those points I also looked for a way of > > timing the contrary action to be taken at those points. It would not be > > enough just to recognize when the majority was wrong. One must also > > recognize exactly when the majority was wrong enough to take the contrary > > action. > > > > The words above are not mine. This was a quote from *The Haller Theory of > > Stock Market Trends* 1965, by Gilbert Haller. Recently, I have been > > showing you a few charts on advancing volume and advancing issues. I > > referred to this as market fuel. Mr. Haller's work only recently became > > known to me by one of my old time technical friends. He suggested that I > > read Mr. Haller's book. What I found in this book served to reinforce > > what I have been sharing with you over the last few weeks about the lack of > > confirmation from upside volume and advancing issues. As it turns out, > > Mr. Haller's work was solidly based on the use of volume and > > advancing-declining issues. Mr. Haller used these indicators to show him > > when the market was under distribution as is now the case. My point here > > is that in spite of all the hype from mainstream and popular public opinion > > the underlying volume and advance-decline work is telling us something else > > and now does not appear to be a time to be in alignment with the majority. > > Given that Mr. Haller's work was based on what I have recently been > > presenting to you as "Market Fuel" plus the fact that I currently have a > > contrary opinion on the market I felt that the above quote was appropriate. > > I hope that you are able to find some value in it. > > > > > > >
