[obrolan-bandar] Re: Kok turun?
IHSG -6 jam 15:02 Jika semua bilang NAEK, yang terjadi adalah KEBALIKANNYA... Yang penting IHSG MASIH di GREEN AREA, jika dia MASUK BEAR AREA, maka akan jadi ONE WAY TICKET --- In obrolan-bandar@yahoogroups.com, Indra D [EMAIL PROTECTED] wrote: Mbah, Indeks kok naik turun? Ada apa neh? rupiah stabil, minyak turun, kok indeks -2 ya? Bingung Yahoo! Groups Sponsor ~-- Try Online Currency Trading with GFT. Free 50K Demo. Trade 24 Hours. Commission-Free. http://us.click.yahoo.com/RvFikB/9M2KAA/U1CZAA/zMEolB/TM ~- Yahoo! Groups Links * To visit your group on the web, go to: http://groups.yahoo.com/group/obrolan-bandar/ * To unsubscribe from this group, send an email to: [EMAIL PROTECTED] * Your use of Yahoo! Groups is subject to: http://docs.yahoo.com/info/terms/
Re: [obrolan-bandar] Re: Kok turun?
embah, tolong kirimin grafiknya lagi donk. saya kok gak terima. tks. ---Original Message--- From: jsx_consultant Date: 12/20/05 15:05:36 To: obrolan-bandar@yahoogroups.com Subject: [obrolan-bandar] Re: Kok turun? IHSG -6 jam 15:02Jika semua bilang NAEK, yang terjadi adalah KEBALIKANNYA...Yang penting IHSG MASIH di GREEN AREA, jika dia MASUK BEAR AREA,maka akan jadi ONE WAY TICKET--- In obrolan-bandar@yahoogroups.com, "Indra D" [EMAIL PROTECTED] wrote: Mbah, Indeks kok naik turun? Ada apa neh? rupiah stabil, minyak turun, kok indeks -2 ya? Bingung SPONSORED LINKS Business finance course Business to business finance Small business finance Business finance consultant Business finance magazine Business finance schools YAHOO! GROUPS LINKS Visit your group "obrolan-bandar" on the web. To unsubscribe from this group, send an email to:[EMAIL PROTECTED] Your use of Yahoo! Groups is subject to the Yahoo! Terms of Service.
[obrolan-bandar] Re: Kok turun?
Coba check dibagian FILES milis OB... --- In obrolan-bandar@yahoogroups.com, Danny Liza Lau [EMAIL PROTECTED] wrote: embah, tolong kirimin grafiknya lagi donk. saya kok gak terima. tks. ---Original Message--- From: jsx_consultant Date: 12/20/05 15:05:36 To: obrolan-bandar@yahoogroups.com Subject: [obrolan-bandar] Re: Kok turun? IHSG -6 jam 15:02 Jika semua bilang NAEK, yang terjadi adalah KEBALIKANNYA... Yang penting IHSG MASIH di GREEN AREA, jika dia MASUK BEAR AREA, maka akan jadi ONE WAY TICKET --- In obrolan-bandar@yahoogroups.com, Indra D [EMAIL PROTECTED] wrote: Mbah, Indeks kok naik turun? Ada apa neh? rupiah stabil, minyak turun, kok indeks -2 ya? Bingung SPONSORED LINKS Business finance course Business to business finance Small business finance Business finance consultant Business finance magazine Business finance schools YAHOO! GROUPS LINKS Visit your group obrolan-bandar on the web. To unsubscribe from this group, send an email to: [EMAIL PROTECTED] Your use of Yahoo! Groups is subject to the Yahoo! Terms of Service. Yahoo! Groups Sponsor ~-- Try Online Currency Trading with GFT. Free 50K Demo. Trade 24 Hours. Commission-Free. http://us.click.yahoo.com/RvFikB/9M2KAA/U1CZAA/zMEolB/TM ~- Yahoo! Groups Links * To visit your group on the web, go to: http://groups.yahoo.com/group/obrolan-bandar/ * To unsubscribe from this group, send an email to: [EMAIL PROTECTED] * Your use of Yahoo! Groups is subject to: http://docs.yahoo.com/info/terms/
[obrolan-bandar] Danareksa rekomendasikan SELL ANTM
Danareksa merekomendasikan sell ANTM dengan analisa sbb: Mungkin Pak Eka bisa kasih second opinion? Overvalued, downgrade to SELL We downgrade our recommendation to SELL with a FY06-end target price of Rp2,700 because the share price has run ahead of fundamentals in our opinion. High ferronickel cash costs remain our main concern given the still high expectations on oil prices next year and the lack of detailed plans available on the fuel switching program. The higher gold price is positive for ANTM but the impact on the bottom line is not significant in our estimate as gold revenues constitute only 15-20% of total revenues. Cash costs assumption to increase by 8% next year We have revised up our FY06 oil prices (High Speed Diesel and Marine Fuel Oil) assumptions in FY06 by 41% and 20% because of Pertamina’s higher-than-expected industrial selling prices. This has led to us increasing our FY06 cash costs assumption from US$3.2/lb to US$3.5/lb. Our new forecasts are in line with the management’s expectations of US$3.5-3.7/lb cash costs in FY06. Upgrading gold price assumptions The gold price has risen substantially in the last couple of weeks driven mainly by strong US economic growth. The current gold price of some US$500/t.oz has already exceeded the 18-year highest price. We have revised up our FY06-07 gold prices assumptions by 17% and 19%, respectively. All lead to changes in forecasts We have upgraded our FY06-07 earnings forecasts by 12% and 43% respectively mainly driven by changes in assumptions on gold prices, ferronickel cash costs, and foreign exchange rates. On the operational front, our FY06-07 earnings estimates were revised up by 18% and 45% respectively. Why do we rate the stock as a SELL? The share price has already risen in the last couple of weeks mainly triggered in our view by expectations of a rising gold price. Although a rising gold price is positive for ANTM, we don’t think that it will have a significant impact on valuations because of ANTM’s relatively small portion of gold revenues, only some 15-20% to total revenues. Year to Dec 2002 2003 2005F 2006F 2007F Revenue, Rp bn 2,139 2,859 3,296 4,971 4,237 EBITDA, Rp bn 588 1,255 1,563 2,126 1,407 EBITDA growth, % 34.8 113.4 24.6 36.0 (33.8) Net profit, Rp bn 227 807 919 1,110 570 Core profit, Rp bn 357 749 884 1,155 653 EPS, Rp 119 423 482 582 299 EPS growth, % 12.1 256.3 13.9 20.8 (48.7) Core EPS, Rp 187 393 464 605 342 Core EPS growth, % 121.5 110.0 18.1 30.6 (43.4) BVPS, Rp 935 1,299 1,629 2,042 2,137 DPS, Rp 166 151 152 204 105 Net gearing, % (11.4) 3.0 20.1 (17.7) (27.7) PER, x 28.6 8.0 7.1 5.8 11.4 Core PER, x 18.2 8.7 7.3 5.6 9.9 PBV, x 3.6 2.6 2.1 1.7 1.6 Yield, % 4.9 4.4 4.5 6.0 3.1 EV/EBITDA, x 10.7 5.2 4.5 2.7 3.8 ANTM in our opinion still carries some risks though: a. Possible higher-than-expected cash costs due to higher oil prices – Fuel costs represent a significant portion of ferronickel cash costs, some 37% this year and 47% next year. Without any fuel switching program, higher oil prices can boost cash costs further and squeeze margins. b. Balance sheet under pressure – ANTM’s balance sheet is healthy in our view, and we expect that it will change to net cash next year. But with the management’s plans to expand into major projects, such as HPAL and, recently, coal, the balance sheet will come under pressure when ANTM has to raise loans to finance the projects. c. Illegal mining and the expected short life of Pongkor mine – We are concerned that higher gold prices will induce illegal activities in the Pongkor gold mine. Another concern is that the mine life of Pongkor is only 10 years. The fact that ANTM will triple ferronickel production next year, which therefore will lead to EPS growth of 20% in our estimate, has already been priced in by the market in our view. FY06 valuations, though looking quite interesting, we believe are mainly driven by the higher ferronickel production rather than expectations of a better nickel price. Under our estimated sustainable EPS, at the current price ANTM generates an earnings yield of only 7%, below its WACC of 13.7%. We place a SELL recommendation on the stock with FY06-end target price of Rp2,700. The consensus view that there won’t be additional nickel supply is a positive factor for ANTM. Tks HJ -- Using Opera's revolutionary e-mail client: http://www.opera.com/m2/ Yahoo! Groups Sponsor ~-- Try Online Currency Trading with GFT. Free 50K Demo. Trade 24 Hours. Commission-Free. http://us.click.yahoo.com/RvFikB/9M2KAA/U1CZAA/zMEolB/TM ~- Yahoo! Groups Links * To visit your group on the web, go to: http://groups.yahoo.com/group/obrolan-bandar/ * To unsubscribe from this group, send an email to: [EMAIL PROTECTED] * Your use of Yahoo! Groups is subject to:
Re: [obrolan-bandar] Danareksa rekomendasikan SELL ANTM
Kemahalan sih tapikalau market maker belum cuci gudang harga terus naek - Original Message - From: Hendra Julius To: obrolan-bandar@yahoogroups.com Sent: Tuesday, December 20, 2005 8:28 PM Subject: [obrolan-bandar] Danareksa rekomendasikan SELL ANTM Danareksa merekomendasikan sell ANTM dengan analisa sbb:Mungkin Pak Eka bisa kasih second opinion?Overvalued, downgrade to SELLWe downgrade our recommendation to SELL with a FY06-end target price of Rp2,700because the share price has run ahead of fundamentals in our opinion. Highferronickel cash costs remain our main concern given the still high expectations onoil prices next year and the lack of detailed plans available on the fuel switchingprogram. The higher gold price is positive for ANTM but the impact on the bottomline is not significant in our estimate as gold revenues constitute only 15-20% of totalrevenues.Cash costs assumption to increase by 8% next yearWe have revised up our FY06 oil prices (High Speed Diesel and Marine Fuel Oil) assumptions inFY06 by 41% and 20% because of Pertamina’s higher-than-expected industrial selling prices. Thishas led to us increasing our FY06 cash costs assumption from US$3.2/lb to US$3.5/lb. Our newforecasts are in line with the management’s expectations of US$3.5-3.7/lb cash costs in FY06.Upgrading gold price assumptionsThe gold price has risen substantially in the last couple of weeks driven mainly by strong USeconomic growth. The current gold price of some US$500/t.oz has already exceeded the 18-yearhighest price. We have revised up our FY06-07 gold prices assumptions by 17% and 19%,respectively.All lead to changes in forecastsWe have upgraded our FY06-07 earnings forecasts by 12% and 43% respectively mainly driven bychanges in assumptions on gold prices, ferronickel cash costs, and foreign exchange rates. On theoperational front, our FY06-07 earnings estimates were revised up by 18% and 45% respectively.Why do we rate the stock as a SELL?The share price has already risen in the last couple of weeks mainly triggered in our view byexpectations of a rising gold price. Although a rising gold price is positive for ANTM, we don’t thinkthat it will have a significant impact on valuations because of ANTM’s relatively small portion ofgold revenues, only some 15-20% to total revenues.Year to Dec 2002 2003 2005F 2006F 2007FRevenue, Rp bn 2,139 2,859 3,296 4,971 4,237EBITDA, Rp bn 588 1,255 1,563 2,126 1,407EBITDA growth, % 34.8 113.4 24.6 36.0 (33.8)Net profit, Rp bn 227 807 919 1,110 570Core profit, Rp bn 357 749 884 1,155 653EPS, Rp 119 423 482 582 299EPS growth, % 12.1 256.3 13.9 20.8 (48.7)Core EPS, Rp 187 393 464 605 342Core EPS growth, % 121.5 110.0 18.1 30.6 (43.4)BVPS, Rp 935 1,299 1,629 2,042 2,137DPS, Rp 166 151 152 204 105Net gearing, % (11.4) 3.0 20.1 (17.7) (27.7)PER, x 28.6 8.0 7.1 5.8 11.4Core PER, x 18.2 8.7 7.3 5.6 9.9PBV, x 3.6 2.6 2.1 1.7 1.6Yield, % 4.9 4.4 4.5 6.0 3.1EV/EBITDA, x 10.7 5.2 4.5 2.7 3.8ANTM in our opinion still carries some risks though:a. Possible higher-than-expected cash costs due to higher oil prices – Fuel costs representa significant portion of ferronickel cash costs, some 37% this year and 47% next year.Without any fuel switching program, higher oil prices can boost cash costs further andsqueeze margins.b. Balance sheet under pressure – ANTM’s balance sheet is healthy in our view, and weexpect that it will change to net cash next year. But with the management’s plans toexpand into major projects, such as HPAL and, recently, coal, the balance sheet will comeunder pressure when ANTM has to raise loans to finance the projects.c. Illegal mining and the expected short life of Pongkor mine – We are concerned thathigher gold prices will induce illegal activities in the Pongkor gold mine. Anotherconcern is that the mine life of Pongkor is only 10 years.The fact that ANTM will triple ferronickel production next year, which therefore will lead toEPS growth of 20% in our estimate, has already been priced in by the market in our view.FY06 valuations, though looking quite interesting, we believe are mainly driven by thehigher ferronickel production rather than expectations of a better nickel price. Under ourestimated sustainable EPS, at the current price ANTM generates an earnings yield of only7%, below its WACC of 13.7%. We place a SELL recommendation on the stock with FY06-endtarget price of Rp2,700. The consensus view that there won’t be additional nickel supply isa positive factor for ANTM.TksHJ-- Using Opera's revolutionary e-mail client: http://www.opera.com/m2/ SPONSORED LINKS Business finance course Business to business finance
[obrolan-bandar] Re: Kok turun?
green areanya mulai berapa sih?kok saya gak bisa lihat...gak ada gambarnya --- In obrolan-bandar@yahoogroups.com, jsx_consultant jsx- [EMAIL PROTECTED] wrote: IHSG -6 jam 15:02 Jika semua bilang NAEK, yang terjadi adalah KEBALIKANNYA... Yang penting IHSG MASIH di GREEN AREA, jika dia MASUK BEAR AREA, maka akan jadi ONE WAY TICKET --- In obrolan-bandar@yahoogroups.com, Indra D [EMAIL PROTECTED] wrote: Mbah, Indeks kok naik turun? Ada apa neh? rupiah stabil, minyak turun, kok indeks -2 ya? Bingung Yahoo! Groups Sponsor ~-- Try Online Currency Trading with GFT. Free 50K Demo. Trade 24 Hours. Commission-Free. http://us.click.yahoo.com/RvFikB/9M2KAA/U1CZAA/zMEolB/TM ~- Yahoo! Groups Links * To visit your group on the web, go to: http://groups.yahoo.com/group/obrolan-bandar/ * To unsubscribe from this group, send an email to: [EMAIL PROTECTED] * Your use of Yahoo! Groups is subject to: http://docs.yahoo.com/info/terms/
Re: [obrolan-bandar] Re: Kok turun?
Ada yang punya informasi saham "DOID" 3hari yg lalu Rp. 860 sekarang Sell queue Rp. 390.padahal dari IPO sampai minggu kemarin sahamnyalumayan bagus. Thankspencerahannya ---Original Message--- From: jsx_consultant Date: 12/20/05 16:04:21 To: obrolan-bandar@yahoogroups.com Subject: [obrolan-bandar] Re: Kok turun? Coba check dibagian FILES milis OB... --- In obrolan-bandar@yahoogroups.com, "Danny Liza Lau" [EMAIL PROTECTED] wrote: embah, tolong kirimin grafiknya lagi donk. saya kok gak terima. tks. ---Original Message--- From: jsx_consultant Date: 12/20/05 15:05:36 To: obrolan-bandar@yahoogroups.com Subject: [obrolan-bandar] Re: Kok turun? IHSG -6 jam 15:02 Jika semua bilang NAEK, yang terjadi adalah KEBALIKANNYA... Yang penting IHSG MASIH di GREEN AREA, jika dia MASUK BEAR AREA, maka akan jadi ONE WAY TICKET --- In obrolan-bandar@yahoogroups.com, "Indra D" [EMAIL PROTECTED] wrote: Mbah, Indeks kok naik turun? Ada apa neh? rupiah stabil, minyak turun, kok indeks -2 ya? Bingung SPONSORED LINKS Business finance course Business to business finance Small business finance Business finance consultant Business finance magazine Business finance schools YAHOO! GROUPS LINKS Visit your group "obrolan-bandar" on the web. To unsubscribe from this group, send an email to: [EMAIL PROTECTED] Your use of Yahoo! Groups is subject to the Yahoo! Terms of Service. Yahoo! Groups Sponsor ~-- Try Online Currency Trading with GFT. Free 50K Demo. Trade 24 Hours. Commission-Free. http://us.click.yahoo.com/RvFikB/9M2KAA/U1CZAA/zMEolB/TM ~- Yahoo! Groups Links * To visit your group on the web, go to: http://groups.yahoo.com/group/obrolan-bandar/ * To unsubscribe from this group, send an email to: [EMAIL PROTECTED] * Your use of Yahoo! Groups is subject to: http://docs.yahoo.com/info/terms/ YAHOO! GROUPS LINKS Visit your group "obrolan-bandar" on the web. To unsubscribe from this group, send an email to:[EMAIL PROTECTED] Your use of Yahoo! Groups is subject to the Yahoo! Terms of Service.
Re: [obrolan-bandar] Danareksa rekomendasikan SELL ANTM
Masih murah, utk target 2005 harga sudah wajar tapi utk target FYE 2006 masih murah. EPS FYE2006=750-800, jadi PER2006 dgn harga 3400, PER2006=4,533. Masih ada ruang utk naik. Apalagi saya lihat , laba bersih utk desember 2005 masih di atas 800 milliar ada naik sedikit, bertolak belakang dgn apa yg dikatakan OD, saya masih setuju apa yg di released ML.Cuma harus di catat , hari ini nickel turun ke 5,9 USD/lb, kalo tembus di bawah 5 USD lebih baik lepas. Cost BBM antm masih lebih tinggi daripada INCO yg pakai PLTA. Saya masih pegang di harga buyback 3200-3300.Karno Edy [EMAIL PROTECTED] wrote:  Kemahalan sih tapikalau market maker belum cuci gudang harga terus naek- Original Message - From: Hendra Julius To: obrolan-bandar@yahoogroups.com Sent: Tuesday, December 20, 2005 8:28 PM Subject: [obrolan-bandar] Danareksa rekomendasikan SELL ANTM Danareksa merekomendasikan sell ANTM dengan analisa sbb:Mungkin Pak Eka bisa kasih second opinion?Overvalued, downgrade to SELLWe downgrade our recommendation to SELL with a FY06-end target price of Rp2,700because the share price has run ahead of fundamentals in our opinion. Highferronickel cash costs remain our main concern given the still high expectations onoil prices next year and the lack of detailed plans available on the fuel switchingprogram. The higher gold price is positive for ANTM but the impact on the bottomline is not significant in our estimate as gold revenues constitute only 15-20% of totalrevenues.Cash costs assumption to increase by 8% next yearWe have revised up our FY06 oil prices (High Speed Diesel and Marine Fuel Oil) assumptions inFY06 by 41% and 20% because of Pertaminaâs higher-than-expected industrial selling prices. Thishas led to us increasing our FY06 cash costs assumption from US$3.2/lb to US$3.5/lb. Our newforecasts are in line with the managementâs expectations of US$3.5-3.7/lb cash costs in FY06.Upgrading gold price assumptionsThe gold price has risen substantially in the last couple of weeks driven mainly by strong USeconomic growth. The current gold price of some US$500/t.oz has already exceeded the 18-yearhighest price. We have revised up our FY06-07 gold prices assumptions by 17% and 19%,respectively.All lead to changes in forecastsWe have upgraded our FY06-07 earnings forecasts by 12% and 43% respectively mainly driven bychanges in assumptions on gold prices, ferronickel cash costs, and foreign exchange rates. On theoperational front, our FY06-07 earnings estimates were revised up by 18% and 45% respectively.Why do we rate the stock as a SELL?The share price has already risen in the last couple of weeks mainly triggered in our view byexpectations of a rising gold price. Although a rising gold price is positive for ANTM, we donât thinkthat it will have a significant impact on valuations because of ANTMâs relatively small portion ofgold revenues, only some 15-20% to total revenues.Year to Dec 2002 2003 2005F 2006F 2007FRevenue, Rp bn 2,139 2,859 3,296 4,971 4,237EBITDA, Rp bn 588 1,255 1,563 2,126 1,407EBITDA growth, % 34.8 113.4 24.6 36.0 (33.8)Net profit, Rp bn 227 807 919 1,110 570Core profit, Rp bn 357 749 884 1,155 653EPS, Rp 119 423 482 582 299EPS growth, % 12.1 256.3 13.9 20.8 (48.7)Core EPS, Rp 187 393 464 605 342Core EPS growth, % 121.5 110.0 18.1 30.6 (43.4)BVPS, Rp 935 1,299 1,629 2,042 2,137DPS, Rp 166 151 152 204 105Net gearing, % (11.4) 3.0 20.1 (17.7) (27.7)PER, x 28.6 8.0 7.1 5.8 11.4Core PER, x 18.2 8.7 7.3 5.6 9.9PBV, x 3.6 2.6 2.1 1.7 1.6Yield, % 4.9 4.4 4.5 6.0 3.1EV/EBITDA, x 10.7 5.2 4.5 2.7 3.8ANTM in our opinion still carries some risks though:a. Possible higher-than-expected cash costs due to higher oil prices â Fuel costs representa significant portion of ferronickel cash costs, some 37% this year and 47% next year.Without any fuel switching program, higher oil prices can boost cash costs further andsqueeze margins.b. Balance sheet under pressure â ANTMâs balance sheet is healthy in our view, and weexpect that it will change to net cash next year. But with the managementâs plans toexpand into major projects, such as HPAL and, recently, coal, the balance sheet will comeunder pressure when ANTM has to raise loans to finance the projects.c. Illegal mining and the expected short life of Pongkor mine â We are concerned thathigher gold prices will induce illegal activities in the Pongkor gold mine. Anotherconcern is that the mine life of Pongkor is only 10 years.The fact that ANTM will triple ferronickel production next year, which therefore will lead toEPS growth of 20% in our estimate, has already been priced in by the market in our view.FY06 valuations, though looking quite interesting, we believe are mainly driven by thehigher ferronickel production rather than expectations of a better nickel price. Under ourestimated sustainable EPS, at the current price ANTM generates an earnings yield of only7%, below its WACC of 13.7%. We place a SELL
Re: [obrolan-bandar] Re: Kok turun?
Tapi kalo mau jualada ygbid tuh di Rp 550. Hehehe,offer yangRp 390 dia nggak mau beli. Murahan katanya. Daripada beli DOID mendingan kita pasang TOGEL kali, ya. ---Original Message--- From: sugiarto Date: 12/21/05 09:46:52 To: obrolan-bandar@yahoogroups.com Subject: Re: [obrolan-bandar] Re: Kok turun? Ada yang punya informasi saham "DOID" 3hari yg lalu Rp. 860 sekarang Sell queue Rp. 390.padahal dari IPO sampai minggu kemarin sahamnyalumayan bagus. Thankspencerahannya ---Original Message--- From: jsx_consultant Date: 12/20/05 16:04:21 To: obrolan-bandar@yahoogroups.com Subject: [obrolan-bandar] Re: Kok turun? Coba check dibagian FILES milis OB... --- In obrolan-bandar@yahoogroups.com, "Danny Liza Lau" [EMAIL PROTECTED] wrote: embah, tolong kirimin grafiknya lagi donk. saya kok gak terima. tks. ---Original Message--- From: jsx_consultant Date: 12/20/05 15:05:36 To: obrolan-bandar@yahoogroups.com Subject: [obrolan-bandar] Re: Kok turun? IHSG -6 jam 15:02 Jika semua bilang NAEK, yang terjadi adalah KEBALIKANNYA... Yang penting IHSG MASIH di GREEN AREA, jika dia MASUK BEAR AREA, maka akan jadi ONE WAY TICKET --- In obrolan-bandar@yahoogroups.com, "Indra D" [EMAIL PROTECTED] wrote: Mbah, Indeks kok naik turun? Ada apa neh? rupiah stabil, minyak turun, kok indeks -2 ya? Bingung SPONSORED LINKS Business finance course Business to business finance Small business finance Business finance consultant Business finance magazine Business finance schools YAHOO! GROUPS LINKS Visit your group "obrolan-bandar" on the web. To unsubscribe from this group, send an email to: [EMAIL PROTECTED] Your use of Yahoo! Groups is subject to the Yahoo! Terms of Service. Yahoo! Groups Sponsor ~-- Try Online Currency Trading with GFT. Free 50K Demo. Trade 24 Hours. Commission-Free. http://us.click.yahoo.com/RvFikB/9M2KAA/U1CZAA/zMEolB/TM ~- Yahoo! Groups Links * To visit your group on the web, go to: http://groups.yahoo.com/group/obrolan-bandar/ * To unsubscribe from this group, send an email to: [EMAIL PROTECTED] * Your use of Yahoo! Groups is subject to: http://docs.yahoo.com/info/terms/ SPONSORED LINKS Business finance course Business to business finance Small business finance Business finance consultant Business finance magazine Business finance schools YAHOO! GROUPS LINKS Visit your group "obrolan-bandar" on the web. To unsubscribe from this group, send an email to:[EMAIL PROTECTED] Your use of Yahoo! Groups is subject to the Yahoo! Terms of Service.
Re: [obrolan-bandar] Danareksa rekomendasikan SELL ANTM
Setahu saya utk gold, scr sederhana level D (wave 5) masih belon terbentuk akan terjadi - dg angka yg jauh lebih tinggi dr level tertinggi yg pernah tercapai baru2 ini, yaitu setelah 'pullback' dalam jangka waktu yg relatif sama (i.e.target dimaksud 1 (satu) tahun ke depan) ... Masih murah, utk target 2005 harga sudah wajar tapi utk target FYE 2006 masih murah. EPS FYE2006=750-800, jadi PER2006 dgn harga 3400, PER2006=4,533. Masih ada ruang utk naik. Apalagi saya lihat , laba bersih utk desember 2005 masih di atas 800 milliar ada naik sedikit, bertolak belakang dgn apa yg dikatakan OD, saya masih setuju apa yg di released ML. Cuma harus di catat , hari ini nickel turun ke 5,9 USD/lb, kalo tembus di bawah 5 USD lebih baik lepas. Cost BBM antm masih lebih tinggi daripada INCO yg pakai PLTA. Saya masih pegang di harga buyback 3200-3300. Karno Edy [EMAIL PROTECTED] wrote:  Kemahalan sih tapi kalau market maker belum cuci gudang harga terus naek - Original Message - From: Hendra Julius To: obrolan-bandar@yahoogroups.com Sent: Tuesday, December 20, 2005 8:28 PM Subject: [obrolan-bandar] Danareksa rekomendasikan SELL ANTM Danareksa merekomendasikan sell ANTM dengan analisa sbb: Mungkin Pak Eka bisa kasih second opinion? Overvalued, downgrade to SELL We downgrade our recommendation to SELL with a FY06-end target price of Rp2,700 because the share price has run ahead of fundamentals in our opinion. High ferronickel cash costs remain our main concern given the still high expectations on oil prices next year and the lack of detailed plans available on the fuel switching program. The higher gold price is positive for ANTM but the impact on the bottom line is not significant in our estimate as gold revenues constitute only 15-20% of total revenues. Cash costs assumption to increase by 8% next year We have revised up our FY06 oil prices (High Speed Diesel and Marine Fuel Oil) assumptions in FY06 by 41% and 20% because of Pertaminaâs higher-than-expected industrial selling prices. This has led to us increasing our FY06 cash costs assumption from US$3.2/lb to US$3.5/lb. Our new forecasts are in line with the managementâs expectations of US$3.5-3.7/lb cash costs in FY06. Upgrading gold price assumptions The gold price has risen substantially in the last couple of weeks driven mainly by strong US economic growth. The current gold price of some US$500/t.oz has already exceeded the 18-year highest price. We have revised up our FY06-07 gold prices assumptions by 17% and 19%, respectively. All lead to changes in forecasts We have upgraded our FY06-07 earnings forecasts by 12% and 43% respectively mainly driven by changes in assumptions on gold prices, ferronickel cash costs, and foreign exchange rates. On the operational front, our FY06-07 earnings estimates were revised up by 18% and 45% respectively. Why do we rate the stock as a SELL? The share price has already risen in the last couple of weeks mainly triggered in our view by expectations of a rising gold price. Although a rising gold price is positive for ANTM, we donât think that it will have a significant impact on valuations because of ANTMâs relatively small portion of gold revenues, only some 15-20% to total revenues. Year to Dec 2002 2003 2005F 2006F 2007F Revenue, Rp bn 2,139 2,859 3,296 4,971 4,237 EBITDA, Rp bn 588 1,255 1,563 2,126 1,407 EBITDA growth, % 34.8 113.4 24.6 36.0 (33.8) Net profit, Rp bn 227 807 919 1,110 570 Core profit, Rp bn 357 749 884 1,155 653 EPS, Rp 119 423 482 582 299 EPS growth, % 12.1 256.3 13.9 20.8 (48.7) Core EPS, Rp 187 393 464 605 342 Core EPS growth, % 121.5 110.0 18.1 30.6 (43.4) BVPS, Rp 935 1,299 1,629 2,042 2,137 DPS, Rp 166 151 152 204 105 Net gearing, % (11.4) 3.0 20.1 (17.7) (27.7) PER, x 28.6 8.0 7.1 5.8 11.4 Core PER, x 18.2 8.7 7.3 5.6 9.9 PBV, x 3.6 2.6 2.1 1.7 1.6 Yield, % 4.9 4.4 4.5 6.0 3.1 EV/EBITDA, x 10.7 5.2 4.5 2.7 3.8 ANTM in our opinion still carries some risks though: a. Possible higher-than-expected cash costs due to higher oil prices â Fuel costs represent a significant portion of ferronickel cash costs, some 37% this year and 47% next year. Without any fuel switching program, higher oil prices can boost cash costs further and squeeze margins. b. Balance sheet under pressure â ANTMâs balance sheet is healthy in our view, and we expect that it will change to net cash next year. But with the managementâs plans to expand into major projects, such as HPAL and, recently, coal, the balance sheet will come under pressure when ANTM has to raise loans to finance the projects. c. Illegal mining and the expected short life of Pongkor mine â We are concerned that higher gold prices will induce illegal activities in the Pongkor gold mine. Another concern is that the mine life of Pongkor is only 10 years. The fact that ANTM will triple ferronickel
Re: [obrolan-bandar] Re: Kok turun?
DOID = DOdol InDonesia - Original Message - From: Danny Liza Lau To: obrolan-bandar@yahoogroups.com Sent: Wednesday, December 21, 2005 11:32 AM Subject: Re: [obrolan-bandar] Re: Kok turun? Tapi kalo mau jualada ygbid tuh di Rp 550. Hehehe,offer yangRp 390 dia nggak mau beli. Murahan katanya. Daripada beli DOID mendingan kita pasang TOGEL kali, ya. ---Original Message--- From: sugiarto Date: 12/21/05 09:46:52 To: obrolan-bandar@yahoogroups.com Subject: Re: [obrolan-bandar] Re: Kok turun? Ada yang punya informasi saham "DOID" 3hari yg lalu Rp. 860 sekarang Sell queue Rp. 390.padahal dari IPO sampai minggu kemarin sahamnyalumayan bagus. Thankspencerahannya ---Original Message--- From: jsx_consultant Date: 12/20/05 16:04:21 To: obrolan-bandar@yahoogroups.com Subject: [obrolan-bandar] Re: Kok turun? Coba check dibagian FILES milis OB... --- In obrolan-bandar@yahoogroups.com, "Danny Liza Lau" [EMAIL PROTECTED] wrote: embah, tolong kirimin grafiknya lagi donk. saya kok gak terima. tks. ---Original Message--- From: jsx_consultant Date: 12/20/05 15:05:36 To: obrolan-bandar@yahoogroups.com Subject: [obrolan-bandar] Re: Kok turun? IHSG -6 jam 15:02 Jika semua bilang NAEK, yang terjadi adalah KEBALIKANNYA... Yang penting IHSG MASIH di GREEN AREA, jika dia MASUK BEAR AREA, maka akan jadi ONE WAY TICKET --- In obrolan-bandar@yahoogroups.com, "Indra D" [EMAIL PROTECTED] wrote: Mbah, Indeks kok naik turun? Ada apa neh? rupiah stabil, minyak turun, kok indeks -2 ya? Bingung SPONSORED LINKS Business finance course Business to business finance Small business finance Business finance consultant Business finance magazine Business finance schools YAHOO! GROUPS LINKS Visit your group "obrolan-bandar" on the web. To unsubscribe from this group, send an email to: [EMAIL PROTECTED] Your use of Yahoo! Groups is subject to the Yahoo! Terms of Service. Yahoo! Groups Sponsor ~-- Try Online Currency Trading with GFT. Free 50K Demo. Trade 24 Hours. Commission-Free. http://us.click.yahoo.com/RvFikB/9M2KAA/U1CZAA/zMEolB/TM ~- Yahoo! Groups Links * To visit your group on the web, go to: http://groups.yahoo.com/group/obrolan-bandar/ * To unsubscribe from this group, send an email to: [EMAIL PROTECTED] * Your use of Yahoo! Groups is subject to: http://docs.yahoo.com/info/terms/ YAHOO! GROUPS LINKS Visit your group "obrolan-bandar" on the web. To unsubscribe from this group, send an email to:[EMAIL PROTECTED] Your use of Yahoo! Groups is subject to the Yahoo! Terms of Service.
[obrolan-bandar] BuyBack TLKM
Dana BB = Rp 5.25 T Buat beli 5% saham. Total saham = 20.16 B lembar Jadi harga BB rata2 = Rp 5200??? SPONSORED LINKS Business finance course Business to business finance Small business finance Business finance consultant Business finance magazine Business finance schools YAHOO! GROUPS LINKS Visit your group "obrolan-bandar" on the web. To unsubscribe from this group, send an email to:[EMAIL PROTECTED] Your use of Yahoo! Groups is subject to the Yahoo! Terms of Service.
Re: [obrolan-bandar] Re: Kok turun?
DOID = DOdol InDonesia Jangan pilih saham2 yang tidak ada prospeknya.Bisa2 dimakan bandar semua uangnya tuh.Selain itu,kalau ada yang pegang saham RELI,cepat2 saja dilepas.Tidak akan pernah RELI :-D Apalagi ada rumor kalau ada kesulitan di internal perusahaan. Ikuti Kuis Ramadhan bersama TelkomNet Instan dari 12 Oktober s.d 2 Nopember 2005 di http://www.plasa.com/jatim dan dapatkan hadiah setiap minggunya ! (khusus Jawa Timur) Yahoo! Groups Sponsor ~-- Try Online Currency Trading with GFT. Free 50K Demo. Trade 24 Hours. Commission-Free. http://us.click.yahoo.com/RvFikB/9M2KAA/U1CZAA/zMEolB/TM ~- Yahoo! Groups Links * To visit your group on the web, go to: http://groups.yahoo.com/group/obrolan-bandar/ * To unsubscribe from this group, send an email to: [EMAIL PROTECTED] * Your use of Yahoo! Groups is subject to: http://docs.yahoo.com/info/terms/
[obrolan-bandar] TRADING is A MIND GAME....Re: Take a break....
--- In obrolan-bandar@yahoogroups.com, ica ica [EMAIL PROTECTED] wrote: Boring juga neh...trading jalannya kayak ' lame duck' aja... So...spy gak terlalu boring...ada bingkisan cerita neh, but pls don' take too serious : Coba baca bukunya Dr ELDER, disitu ditulis: PSYCHOLOGI IS THE KEY... Lawan TERBESAR dibursa ialah WAKTU dan KESABARAN (=bosan) selain si MM tentunya. Enaknya jadi MM, dia yang menentukan kapan PASAR rame dan kapan MEMBOSANKAN... Jadi buat yang lagi di Gallery, jangan lupa bawa BUKU, buku tentang TA, tentang FA, tentang Psychology, tentang MAKRO. Jadi kalo lagi bursa SEPI, anda bisa MENGALAHKAN musuh terbesar dibursa yaitu KEBOSANAN saat bursa sepi dan SEKALIGUS menambah ILMU... Jadi take a BREAK with LEARNING and of course FUNFUN Yahoo! Groups Sponsor ~-- Try Online Currency Trading with GFT. Free 50K Demo. Trade 24 Hours. Commission-Free. http://us.click.yahoo.com/RvFikB/9M2KAA/U1CZAA/zMEolB/TM ~- Yahoo! Groups Links * To visit your group on the web, go to: http://groups.yahoo.com/group/obrolan-bandar/ * To unsubscribe from this group, send an email to: [EMAIL PROTECTED] * Your use of Yahoo! Groups is subject to: http://docs.yahoo.com/info/terms/
Re: [obrolan-bandar] TRADING is A MIND GAME....Re: Take a break....
Sepi yang membosankan bagi yang nggak punya barang. Tapi sangat MENCEKAM bagi yangpunya barang ---Original Message--- From: jsx_consultant Date: 12/21/05 14:10:20 To: obrolan-bandar@yahoogroups.com Subject: [obrolan-bandar] TRADING is A MIND GAMERe: Take a break --- In obrolan-bandar@yahoogroups.com, ica ica [EMAIL PROTECTED] wrote: Boring juga neh...trading jalannya kayak ' lame duck' aja... So...spy gak terlalu boring...ada bingkisan cerita neh, but pls don' take too serious :Coba baca bukunya Dr ELDER, disitu ditulis: PSYCHOLOGI IS THE KEY...Lawan TERBESAR dibursa ialah WAKTU dan KESABARAN (=bosan) selain si MM tentunya. Enaknya jadi MM, dia yang menentukan kapanPASAR rame dan kapan MEMBOSANKAN...Jadi buat yang lagi di Gallery, jangan lupa bawa BUKU,buku tentang TA, tentang FA, tentang Psychology, tentangMAKRO. Jadi kalo lagi bursa SEPI, anda bisa MENGALAHKANmusuh terbesar dibursa yaitu KEBOSANAN saat bursa sepidan SEKALIGUS menambah ILMU...Jadi take a BREAK with LEARNING and of course FUNFUN SPONSORED LINKS Business finance course Business to business finance Small business finance Business finance consultant Business finance magazine Business finance schools YAHOO! GROUPS LINKS Visit your group "obrolan-bandar" on the web. To unsubscribe from this group, send an email to:[EMAIL PROTECTED] Your use of Yahoo! Groups is subject to the Yahoo! Terms of Service.
[obrolan-bandar] TLKM: jago KANDANG, jadi mau pulang KANDANG
UPDATE 1-Indonesia Telkom to review its overseas listings Wed Dec 21, 2005 01:22 AM ET (Adds quotes, buyback approval, details) JAKARTA, Dec 21 (Reuters) - Indonesia's largest telecommunications company, PT Telekomunikasi Indonesia Tbk (TLKM.JK: Quote, Profile, Research) , will review its share listings in New York and London due to high costs, its president said on Wednesday. Telkom (TLKMq.L: Quote, Profile, Research) (TLK.N: Quote, Profile, Research) , the largest company on the Jakarta exchange with a market capitalisation of $12.3 billion, listed in New York and London 10 years ago along with an initial offering of its shares on the Jakarta Stock Exchange . Around two years ago, Telkom faced problems with the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission when the U.S. regulator said it did not acknowledge its auditors and caused Telkom to rework its financial report for 2002. Discussions on whether Telkom should delist its shares from the overseas bourses have intensified since then. The management has conducted a review on the cost and benefits of multilisting in New York and London and the result is the compliance requirement to be listed in those bourses is too complicated, and costs (us) significantly more money, Arwin Rasyid told a shareholders meeting. The management will appoint an independent party to conduct further review on the listing in those places. Rasyid also said the limited number of auditors who fulfil the requirements of the London and New York exchanges was another reason for considering delisting from the overseas bourses. Telkom's shareholders also approved the company's planned 5.25 trillion rupiah ($533 million) share buyback programme on Wednesday. Telkom had said that it wanted to return excess free cash to its shareholders through the buyback. Its shares had gained more than 24 percent since the start of the year until its closing price on Tuesday of 6,000 rupiah each. Since the company announced the buyback plan on Sept. 30, Telkom shares have gained more than 12 percent. Reuters Consensus Estimates pegged the target price of the state-run firm at 6,156.7 rupiah. The dominant fixed-line operator is also the controling shareholder of the country's largest mobile phone operator, PT Telekomunikasi Selular (Telkomsel). Singapore Telecommunications Ltd (STEL.SI: Quote, Profile, Research) holds a 35 percent stake at Telkomsel while Telkom owns the rest. At midday Wednesday, Telkom shares were traded 0.83 percent higher at 6,050 rupiah ($0.61) while the overall market inched 0.04 percent lower to 1,162.59 points. ($1 = 9,845 rupiah) Yahoo! Groups Sponsor ~-- Try Online Currency Trading with GFT. Free 50K Demo. Trade 24 Hours. Commission-Free. http://us.click.yahoo.com/RvFikB/9M2KAA/U1CZAA/zMEolB/TM ~- Yahoo! Groups Links * To visit your group on the web, go to: http://groups.yahoo.com/group/obrolan-bandar/ * To unsubscribe from this group, send an email to: [EMAIL PROTECTED] * Your use of Yahoo! Groups is subject to: http://docs.yahoo.com/info/terms/
