Economic Preview Nov. 29, 2009, 10:37 a.m. EST · Economy still too weak to create jobs Friday's report should show 100,000 lost jobs in November, survey says By Rex Nutting <mailto:rnutt...@marketwatch.com> , MarketWatch WASHINGTON (MarketWatch) - The U.S. economy is slowly recovering, but it's still not strong enough to create any net jobs, economists said ahead of a busy week for economic news. The biggest report of the week will come on Friday morning with the Labor Department's estimate of November's employment situation. Economists surveyed by MarketWatch expect a 23rd consecutive month of job losses, with nonfarm payrolls forecast to fall by 100,000 after a 190,000 decline in October. The good news: That would be the fewest jobs lost since January 2008. A year ago, nearly 600,000 jobs were lost. The bad news: The unemployment rate would remain at a 26-year high of 10.2%. MarketWatch consensus date report forecast previous Dec. 1 ISM 55.0% 55.7% Dec. 1 Construction spending -0.5% 0.8% Dec. 1 Motor vehicle sales 10.5 mln 10.5 mln Dec. 3 Jobless claims 483,000 466,000 Dec. 3 Productivity revision 8.6% 9.5% Dec. 3 ISM nonmanufacturing 51.5% 50.6% Dec. 4 Nonfarm payrolls -100,000 -190,000 Dec. 4 Unemployment rate 10.2% 10.2% Dec. 4 Average hourly earnings 0.2% 0.3% Dec. 4 Factory orders 0.3% 0.9% /conga/economy-politics/calendars/preview widget.html 44072 "The recent economic data have been consistent with our view that the economy is recovering, but at a distinctly subpar pace," wrote Jan Hatzius, chief economist for Goldman Sachs, in a note to clients. "Growth looks too sluggish to lower the 10%+ unemployment rate to a meaningful degree anytime soon." Several factors point to a better jobs report in November. These include the steady decline in new filings for unemployment benefits, growth in temporary employment, and encouraging signals from leading indicators such as the Conference Board's employment-trends index and the state-level employment numbers, said Neal Soss, chief economist for Credit Suisse. In addition to those fundamental improvements in the market, the November payroll numbers could also benefit from the way the government statisticians adjust the figures for seasonal factors, economists said. Ultimately, however, it's the economy's fundamental strength that matters, not any particular number. Most economists -- in the private sector and at the Federal Reserve - continue to believe in a disappointingly sluggish recovery that will only slowly bring the unemployment rate down. "Skeptics point to the still-weak labor market, high debt levels, and the inevitable fading of the boosts from fiscal stimulus and inventories," wrote Jim O'Sullivan, chief economist for MF Global. "Conversely, those temporary drivers of growth have the potential to jump-start the economy, helping set in motion a self-sustaining, jobs-creating expansion with strength feeding on itself." Other data to be released in the coming week will probably support the sluggish-recovery theory. The Institute for Supply Management's manufacturing index is projected to drop to 55% from 55.7%, our survey says. At 55%, the ISM would show a solid, broad-based recovery across manufacturing firms. It would be the fourth straight month above 50%, which signals growth in manufacturing. The ISM index has shown more strength than other harder data, such as industrial output or durable-goods orders. Construction spending is expected to show a fall of 0.5%, with small improvements in residential construction offset by worsening conditions in commercial real estate. Motor-vehicle sales are expected to be nearly flat at a 10.5 million seasonally adjusted annual rate. The ISM nonmanufacturing index is expected to have risen to 51.5% from 50.6%. It would be the highest since April 2008. Although initial jobless claims are expected to show a slight rise to 483,000, they should remain below 500,000 for a second week after 53 weeks above that line. Rex Nutting is Washington bureau chief of MarketWatch. Powered by Telkomsel BlackBerry® ------------------------------------ + + + + + + + Mohon saat meREPLY posting, text dari posting lama dihapus kecuali diperlukan agar CONTEXTnya jelas. + + + + + + +Yahoo! Groups Links <*> To visit your group on the web, go to: http://groups.yahoo.com/group/obrolan-bandar/ <*> Your email settings: Individual Email | Traditional <*> To change settings online go to: http://groups.yahoo.com/group/obrolan-bandar/join (Yahoo! ID required) <*> To change settings via email: obrolan-bandar-dig...@yahoogroups.com obrolan-bandar-fullfeatu...@yahoogroups.com <*> To unsubscribe from this group, send an email to: obrolan-bandar-unsubscr...@yahoogroups.com <*> Your use of Yahoo! Groups is subject to: http://docs.yahoo.com/info/terms/
