Re: [obrolan-bandar] AALI target 15.000
Kalau sudah diMARK DOWN begitu kok pusing amat, yah tinggal SHORT aja ... On 8/8/08, Kidod25 [EMAIL PROTECTED] wrote: saya ga tau siapa yg buat?? Downgrading Astra Agro to Sell (from Buy) Our rating and earnings estimate downgrades reflect serious deterioration in palm oil price outlook and much higher production costs. We believe the market still underestimates these developments, particularly sharply rising fertiliser prices. Our sensitivity shows Astra Agro's net earnings fall by 2.2% and 2.8% for every 1% decline in palm oil price and 5% increase in production cost, respectively. Double hit for Astra Agro We expect significant deterioration in its earnings and margin outlook starting 2H08 owing to lower palm oil prices and higher production costs. Both greater palm oil production and a bumper soybean crop in the US have weakened CPO price outlook (already 21% off its recent high in June 2008). Meanwhile, we forecast margin pressures from rising production costs to persist amid sharply rising fertiliser prices particularly for potash and phosphate. Reducing EBIT forecasts by 17-40% for 2008-10 Our downward revisions reflect a 7-19% reduction in the CPO price assumption and a 21-34% increase in production cost/kg. We cut CPO price assumptions following deterioration in palm oil outlook, especially due to greater-than-expected palm oil production and a bumper soybean crop in the US. Meanwhile, the rise in production cost is due to a steep 100-200% rise in fertiliser cost in past 6 months. Lowering TP to Rp15,000 from Rp31,500 The TP revision reflects our earnings est. downgrades following lower CPO price and higher production costs and WACC rate. We derive the TP based on a 10-year DCF valuation using 16% (from 14%) WACC and 2.5% TG (page 6). Upside risks include lowering production costs, securing land bank and seedlings to expand its plantation, and securing/renewing necessary land licensing (page 6).
Re: [obrolan-bandar] AALI target 15.000
Hati2 aja short kalau harganya udah di bawah. Kemarin CITI downgrade PGAS ke 1875, 2 hari kemudian harganya malah melejit ke 2,500 --- On Fri, 8/8/08, James Arifin [EMAIL PROTECTED] wrote: From: James Arifin [EMAIL PROTECTED] Subject: Re: [obrolan-bandar] AALI target 15.000 To: obrolan-bandar@yahoogroups.com Date: Friday, August 8, 2008, 1:28 PM Kalau sudah diMARK DOWN begitu kok pusing amat, yah tinggal SHORT aja ... On 8/8/08, Kidod25 [EMAIL PROTECTED] com wrote: saya ga tau siapa yg buat?? Downgrading Astra Agro to Sell (from Buy) Our rating and earnings estimate downgrades reflect serious deterioration in palm oil price outlook and much higher production costs. We believe the market still underestimates these developments, particularly sharply rising fertiliser prices. Our sensitivity shows Astra Agro's net earnings fall by 2.2% and 2.8% for every 1% decline in palm oil price and 5% increase in production cost, respectively. Double hit for Astra Agro We expect significant deterioration in its earnings and margin outlook starting 2H08 owing to lower palm oil prices and higher production costs. Both greater palm oil production and a bumper soybean crop in the US have weakened CPO price outlook (already 21% off its recent high in June 2008). Meanwhile, we forecast margin pressures from rising production costs to persist amid sharply rising fertiliser prices particularly for potash and phosphate. Reducing EBIT forecasts by 17-40% for 2008-10 Our downward revisions reflect a 7-19% reduction in the CPO price assumption and a 21-34% increase in production cost/kg. We cut CPO price assumptions following deterioration in palm oil outlook, especially due to greater-than- expected palm oil production and a bumper soybean crop in the US. Meanwhile, the rise in production cost is due to a steep 100-200% rise in fertiliser cost in past 6 months. Lowering TP to Rp15,000 from Rp31,500 The TP revision reflects our earnings est. downgrades following lower CPO price and higher production costs and WACC rate. We derive the TP based on a 10-year DCF valuation using 16% (from 14%) WACC and 2.5% TG (page 6). Upside risks include lowering production costs, securing land bank and seedlings to expand its plantation, and securing/renewing necessary land licensing (page 6).
Re: [obrolan-bandar] AALI target 15.000
Hati2 aja short kalau harganya udah di bawah. Kemarin CITI downgrade PGAS ke 1875, 2 hari kemudian harganya malah melejit ke 2,500 --- On Fri, 8/8/08, James Arifin [EMAIL PROTECTED] wrote: From: James Arifin [EMAIL PROTECTED] Subject: Re: [obrolan-bandar] AALI target 15.000 To: obrolan-bandar@yahoogroups.com Date: Friday, August 8, 2008, 1:28 PM Kalau sudah diMARK DOWN begitu kok pusing amat, yah tinggal SHORT aja ... On 8/8/08, Kidod25 [EMAIL PROTECTED] com wrote: saya ga tau siapa yg buat?? Downgrading Astra Agro to Sell (from Buy) Our rating and earnings estimate downgrades reflect serious deterioration in palm oil price outlook and much higher production costs. We believe the market still underestimates these developments, particularly sharply rising fertiliser prices. Our sensitivity shows Astra Agro's net earnings fall by 2.2% and 2.8% for every 1% decline in palm oil price and 5% increase in production cost, respectively. Double hit for Astra Agro We expect significant deterioration in its earnings and margin outlook starting 2H08 owing to lower palm oil prices and higher production costs. Both greater palm oil production and a bumper soybean crop in the US have weakened CPO price outlook (already 21% off its recent high in June 2008). Meanwhile, we forecast margin pressures from rising production costs to persist amid sharply rising fertiliser prices particularly for potash and phosphate. Reducing EBIT forecasts by 17-40% for 2008-10 Our downward revisions reflect a 7-19% reduction in the CPO price assumption and a 21-34% increase in production cost/kg. We cut CPO price assumptions following deterioration in palm oil outlook, especially due to greater-than- expected palm oil production and a bumper soybean crop in the US. Meanwhile, the rise in production cost is due to a steep 100-200% rise in fertiliser cost in past 6 months. Lowering TP to Rp15,000 from Rp31,500 The TP revision reflects our earnings est. downgrades following lower CPO price and higher production costs and WACC rate. We derive the TP based on a 10-year DCF valuation using 16% (from 14%) WACC and 2.5% TG (page 6). Upside risks include lowering production costs, securing land bank and seedlings to expand its plantation, and securing/renewing necessary land licensing (page 6).
Re: [obrolan-bandar] AALI target 15.000
DB yg downgrade ke 15 k, tapi kok hari ini doi ga jualan 1 lot pun? h.. sekuritas yang aneh... atau DB suruh kita2 jualan dan dia nampung di 15 k? h.. bau amis. --- On Fri, 8/8/08, rudd haas [EMAIL PROTECTED] wrote: From: rudd haas [EMAIL PROTECTED] Subject: Re: [obrolan-bandar] AALI target 15.000 To: obrolan-bandar@yahoogroups.com Date: Friday, August 8, 2008, 6:42 AM Hati2 aja short kalau harganya udah di bawah. Kemarin CITI downgrade PGAS ke 1875, 2 hari kemudian harganya malah melejit ke 2,500 --- On Fri, 8/8/08, James Arifin james.arifin@ gmail.com wrote: From: James Arifin james.arifin@ gmail.com Subject: Re: [obrolan-bandar] AALI target 15.000 To: obrolan-bandar@ yahoogroups. com Date: Friday, August 8, 2008, 1:28 PM Kalau sudah diMARK DOWN begitu kok pusing amat, yah tinggal SHORT aja ... On 8/8/08, Kidod25 [EMAIL PROTECTED] com wrote: saya ga tau siapa yg buat?? Downgrading Astra Agro to Sell (from Buy) Our rating and earnings estimate downgrades reflect serious deterioration in palm oil price outlook and much higher production costs. We believe the market still underestimates these developments, particularly sharply rising fertiliser prices. Our sensitivity shows Astra Agro's net earnings fall by 2.2% and 2.8% for every 1% decline in palm oil price and 5% increase in production cost, respectively. Double hit for Astra Agro We expect significant deterioration in its earnings and margin outlook starting 2H08 owing to lower palm oil prices and higher production costs. Both greater palm oil production and a bumper soybean crop in the US have weakened CPO price outlook (already 21% off its recent high in June 2008). Meanwhile, we forecast margin pressures from rising production costs to persist amid sharply rising fertiliser prices particularly for potash and phosphate. Reducing EBIT forecasts by 17-40% for 2008-10 Our downward revisions reflect a 7-19% reduction in the CPO price assumption and a 21-34% increase in production cost/kg. We cut CPO price assumptions following deterioration in palm oil outlook, especially due to greater-than- expected palm oil production and a bumper soybean crop in the US. Meanwhile, the rise in production cost is due to a steep 100-200% rise in fertiliser cost in past 6 months. Lowering TP to Rp15,000 from Rp31,500 The TP revision reflects our earnings est. downgrades following lower CPO price and higher production costs and WACC rate. We derive the TP based on a 10-year DCF valuation using 16% (from 14%) WACC and 2.5% TG (page 6). Upside risks include lowering production costs, securing land bank and seedlings to expand its plantation, and securing/renewing necessary land licensing (page 6).
[obrolan-bandar] AALI target 15.000
saya ga tau siapa yg buat?? Downgrading Astra Agro to Sell (from Buy) Our rating and earnings estimate downgrades reflect serious deterioration in palm oil price outlook and much higher production costs. We believe the market still underestimates these developments, particularly sharply rising fertiliser prices. Our sensitivity shows Astra Agro's net earnings fall by 2.2% and 2.8% for every 1% decline in palm oil price and 5% increase in production cost, respectively. Double hit for Astra Agro We expect significant deterioration in its earnings and margin outlook starting 2H08 owing to lower palm oil prices and higher production costs. Both greater palm oil production and a bumper soybean crop in the US have weakened CPO price outlook (already 21% off its recent high in June 2008). Meanwhile, we forecast margin pressures from rising production costs to persist amid sharply rising fertiliser prices particularly for potash and phosphate. Reducing EBIT forecasts by 17-40% for 2008-10 Our downward revisions reflect a 7-19% reduction in the CPO price assumption and a 21-34% increase in production cost/kg. We cut CPO price assumptions following deterioration in palm oil outlook, especially due to greater-than-expected palm oil production and a bumper soybean crop in the US. Meanwhile, the rise in production cost is due to a steep 100-200% rise in fertiliser cost in past 6 months. Lowering TP to Rp15,000 from Rp31,500 The TP revision reflects our earnings est. downgrades following lower CPO price and higher production costs and WACC rate. We derive the TP based on a 10-year DCF valuation using 16% (from 14%) WACC and 2.5% TG (page 6). Upside risks include lowering production costs, securing land bank and seedlings to expand its plantation, and securing/renewing necessary land licensing (page 6).
Re: [obrolan-bandar] AALI target 15.000
Ada peluang di balik berita buruk.Kita tunggu aje deh di harga bawah --- On Fri, 8/8/08, Kidod25 [EMAIL PROTECTED] wrote: From: Kidod25 [EMAIL PROTECTED] Subject: [obrolan-bandar] AALI target 15.000 To: obrolan-bandar@yahoogroups.com Date: Friday, August 8, 2008, 12:28 AM saya ga tau siapa yg buat?? Downgrading Astra Agro to Sell (from Buy) Our rating and earnings estimate downgrades reflect serious deterioration in palm oil price outlook and much higher production costs. We believe the market still underestimates these developments, particularly sharply rising fertiliser prices. Our sensitivity shows Astra Agro's net earnings fall by 2.2% and 2.8% for every 1% decline in palm oil price and 5% increase in production cost, respectively. Double hit for Astra Agro We expect significant deterioration in its earnings and margin outlook starting 2H08 owing to lower palm oil prices and higher production costs. Both greater palm oil production and a bumper soybean crop in the US have weakened CPO price outlook (already 21% off its recent high in June 2008). Meanwhile, we forecast margin pressures from rising production costs to persist amid sharply rising fertiliser prices particularly for potash and phosphate. Reducing EBIT forecasts by 17-40% for 2008-10 Our downward revisions reflect a 7-19% reduction in the CPO price assumption and a 21-34% increase in production cost/kg. We cut CPO price assumptions following deterioration in palm oil outlook, especially due to greater-than- expected palm oil production and a bumper soybean crop in the US. Meanwhile, the rise in production cost is due to a steep 100-200% rise in fertiliser cost in past 6 months. Lowering TP to Rp15,000 from Rp31,500 The TP revision reflects our earnings est. downgrades following lower CPO price and higher production costs and WACC rate. We derive the TP based on a 10-year DCF valuation using 16% (from 14%) WACC and 2.5% TG (page 6). Upside risks include lowering production costs, securing land bank and seedlings to expand its plantation, and securing/renewing necessary land licensing (page 6).
