fair value 2350 tapi tp 500 (cuma) gara2 corporate governance. oh, ini sih tergantung mood ab aja. kalau lagi pingin jadi orang terkaya di indo lagi nanti juga price > fv.
--- In obrolan-bandar@yahoogroups.com, "Sanjaya" <mysanjaya...@...> wrote: > > > > Red or black? > > Event > > ?? We reiterate our Underperform recommendation on Bumi and our target price > > of Rp500. However, we are cutting our fair value to Rp2,350 from Rp2,450 on > > the back of our global coal price forecast cuts. > > Impact > > ?? Trimming short-term forecast. Our global commodities team has fine tuned > > its forecast for the 2009/10 annual contract settlement to US$ 70 and US$65 > > from US$75 and US$70, respectively. The 2009 revision is to reflect the > > recent Japanese settlement. In 2010 the downside risk is around the expected > > spot price weakness, combined with the depreciation of the rouble, which has > > shifted down the top end of the cost curve from US$70â"75/t to US$60â"65/t. > > ?? A world-class asset ex-BHP/Rio. This is evidenced by its strong production > > track record, low transportation distance leading to low production cost, huge > > and reasonable reserves and resources quality. Hence, we continue to > > believe that the company is well positioned to increase its production to 60mt > > in 2009 and 100mt longer term. > > ?? High pricing risk in 2009. As of currently, the company has only priced in > 25â" > > 30% of its 2009 production (as part of the last year legacy contracts). This > will > > likely lead to significant earnings risk given the potential for coal price > volatility. > > ?? Corporate governance concerns. We continue to express our concern over > > the controlling shareholders not acting in the best interest of the company or > > minorities, especially given the three recent acquisitions, which we believe > > were overpriced. We highlight the risks if expensive acquisition sprees > > continue, which may lead to a deterioration of future FCF. > > ?? Face-value valuation appears attractive. On face value, excluding the > > corporate governance concerns, the shares are trading at a 3.3x PER, 2.7x > > EV/EBITDA and 9% dividend yield on our 2009 forecasts. However, should > > the corporate governance issues remain an overhang, we highlight the risk > > that the company could re-rate downward to a 2x multiple. > > Earnings revision > > ?? We have downgraded our 2009/10 earnings forecast by 6% and 18%, > > respectively, to reflect our lower coal price assumptions. > > Price catalyst > > ?? 12-month price target: Rp500.00 based on a DCF methodology. > > ?? Catalyst: Increasing production, coal price recovery and cancellation of > > related party transactions. > > Action and recommendation > > ?? We reiterate our Underperform recommendation on the stock with a Rp500 > > target price due to corporate governance issues. >
