--- Pada Kam, 5/2/09, Joe Grunk <joe_gr...@yahoo.com> menulis: > Dari: Joe Grunk <joe_gr...@yahoo.com> > Topik: [obrolan-bandar] (unknown) > Kepada: sa...@yahoogroups.com, obrolan-bandar@yahoogroups.com > Tanggal: Kamis, 5 Februari, 2009, 6:54 AM > Sudah beberapa hari, namun bisa direview kembali. > > ~~~~~~~~~~~~ > Good morning. Gold seems to be every where these days. We > noticed that people here including those who are not in the > investment industry are engaged in amicable discussions > about the word’s oldest currency that is gold. > > > > Gold price has hit a three-month high and appears like it > has decoupled from the strong US$ (while base metals trade > lower Friday). Gold is the safe haven trade and will > continue to be the ‘store of value’. > > > > We came across an interesting article in January 2009 > edition of National Geographic lately. The calculus of gold > mining is apparently very brutal. Even at top gold mines, > such as Newmont Mining Corporation’s Batu Hijau operation > in eastern Indonesia, extracting a single ounce of gold > there, (which happen to be the amount in a typical wedding > ring), requires the removal of more than 250 tonnes of rock > and ore!! > > > > Compared to mining gold, printing paper money is a walk in > the park (the US monetary base (MO) has doubled in the last > 12 months while the average growth was only about 6.0% > growth over the last 48 years) > > > > Rupiah on the move again today (now at 11,925), as the USD > is strengthening against most currency > > > > As of this morning, we are 2x net buyers. > > > > > > Research Today: Adaro (ADRO IJ), initiating coverage, OPF, > TP Rp925 > > > > Our analyst Olie initiates coverage on Adaro Energy (ADRO > IJ) with an Outperform call and TP of Rp925. > > > > INTERESTING ALTERNATIVE … > > > > * From scale and profit growth perspective, ADRO is an > interesting alternative in the coal sector. This is the > second biggest coal producer (38mn tonnes on 2008, 17% of > total Indonesian production) in Indonesia, with 3rd biggest > reserves in Indonesia to support future growth (928m > tonnes). > * Net profit could jump five-fold, driven largely by > re-pricing of long-term fixed contracts, lower costs, and > steady production growth. > * Out of 20mn tonnes already contracted in 2009, ADRO > has successfully re-negotiated some of these contracts (16mn > out of 20mn). > > > > Solid Track Record: > > > > > > > > BUT NOT A DEFENSIVE PLAY …. > > > > However, this is not a defensive play (we prefer ITMG and > PTBA for defensive names). > > > > > > * Total debt is about US$930mn, net gearing 52% in > 2008, not appealing when peers are in net cash. > * Mining cost is cheap but neutralized by expensive > transportation costs. Transportation is 75km by road and > 250-350km by barging. > * Management has been successful in growing productions > and marketing envirocoal (very low ash and almost > non-existent sulfur). However, we question ADRO’s strategy > for asset-heavy-full-integration business model. > * The performance of the company’s own mining > contractor has been poor. > * Some of the recent acquisitions are expensive, in our > view. > * Rp1.1tn investment in Recapital (no loss provision > made so far) is another question mark. > * Shares overhang. Lock-up for financial investors, > control around 25% stakes, will end in mid March 2009. > > > > News Headlines/Others: > > > > SOE Pertamina set to get a new President Director? SOE > Minister confirmed reports that his ministry is in the > process of choosing a new Pertamina boss. Five candidates > have surfaced: Erry Rijana Hardjapamekas (former deputy > chairman of the Corruption Eradication Commission), Kuntoro > Mangkusubroto (Chairman of the Aceh Reconstruction Agency), > and Gita Wirjawan (Ancora Capital Management co-founder), > and few internal candidates. > > > > Semen Gresik (SMGR IJ) mulls regional expansion. The > cement company has appointed a financial advisor to do a > feasibility study. SMGR’s president director said that > out of the US$371m capex spent this year, US$227m may > potentially be allocated for the overseas acquisition. > SMGR’s vice president director said that the company is > eyeing Cement Industries of Malaysia Bhd (CIMA) and another > cement factory in Thailand. Comment: Malaysia and Thailand > are a more mature market (higher cement consumption per > capita than Indonesia). One would also think that cash > preservation should be more of a priority in this tough > environment. > > > > Indika (INDY IJ) considering acquisition of Australian coal > miner Strait Asia (SAR SP). The potential acquisition is > estimated at US$800m for a 47.1% stake. Singaporean-listed > Strait Asia has two coal mines in Kalimantan. Comment: A > significant portion of the Kalimantan mines have been deemed > protected area (national parks) so production upside appears > limited. > > > > Apexindo (APEX IJ) to be de-listed but still required to > spin off 20% stake. In spite of APEX IJ intention to delist > from the stock exchange, the company is still a public > company says capital regulators. As such, MIRA is still > required to refloat 20% stake of APEX to the public. Note: > APEX was recently acquired by Mitra International Resources > (MIRA IJ) and contributes close to 90% of MIRA’s revenue. > > > > Bakrie Brothers (BNBR IJ) update. All over the media > saying it is planning to increase stakes in their > subsidiaries after the debt issue has been cleared. Wait > for further developments. > > > > PLN secures 65% of financing for 10,000MW power plant > program. State utility power company secured US$328m loan > from domestic banks to finance 85% of the cost for five coal > fired power plants, which are part of the company’s 10,000 > MW crash program. The crash program includes the > construction of 35 power plants. > > > > Police move for internal reform. Indonesia’s police > chiefs signed a contract to push for bureaucratic reform > within the force. The program dubbed Quick Wins will focus > on four priorities including speeding up response to public > complaints, boosting transparency in criminal investigation > and recruitment of new police offers. > > > > Update from Central Bank. To stabilize Indonesian currency > and resolve the tight forex liquidity, Central Bank will > present the market with forex loan which with the structure > of repurchase agreement (repo) for a month with US$ > government bonds as the collateral. Meanwhile, to reach a > targeted economic growth of 4.5-5.5% this year, central bank > has unveiled a series of regulations aimed in part at > increasing lending. Under this regulation, banks only have > to consider the punctuality of the debtor’s loan payment > and will no longer have to take into account a company’s > performance or prospects in calculating risks when > considering loan request. This will apply to small and > medium enterprises applying loans of less than Rp1 billion, > banks with acceptable risk management borrow less than Rp10 > billion, and banks with strong risk management to borrow > less than Rp20 billion. > > Every toll road has to use electronic payment in 2011. The > government authorization body of toll road targeted every > toll road to use electronic toll card in 2011 as the payment > method. This is proposed to increase the service quality to > the consumers especially in speed. > > Tax number’s holders reached 11 million. Until January > 2009, the total tax payers in Indonesia have reached 11.25 > million people. Total tax number issued in 2008 is 10.5 > million while it is 750 thousands in January 2009. > > > > Economic releases this week: > > > > January CPI data to be announced today. Just like last > month, a slight deflation is expected. And the Central Bank > will convene Wednesday Feb 4, and consensus is for a 50bp > rate cute again. > > > > Inflation: > > > > Dec 08 YoY: previous month 11.06%, consensus 9.22% > > Dec 08 MoM: previous month -0.04%, consensus -0.06% > > Jan 09 Core inflation (YoY): previous 8.29%. > > > > Trade data: > > > > Dec 08 exports YoY: previous month -2.1%, consensus +13.1% > > Dec 08 imports YoY: previous month -5.1%, consensus +5.0% > > Dec 08 trade balance: previous month US$894mn > > > > Other data to be released this week: forex reserves as of > Jan 31. > > > > > > Key Indicators: > > > > JCI: 1,332.667, last week: +1.30%, YTD: -1.68% > > > > ADR: > > TLKM US$21.91 = IDR6,231 > > ISAT US$23.87 = IDR5,430 > > > > As of this morning, we are 2x better buyer. > > > > > > Chart of the Day: > > > > > Did You Know That? > > According to a recent survey, most Indonesians are likely > to vote in the next election. Institute for Social and > Economics Research, Education, and Information (LP3ES) said > that their recent survey indicates 91.9% of those > interviewed were likely to vote in the presidential election > and 96.5% in the legislative election. Over the weekend, > President SBY also encouraged Chinese Indonesian to lend > their voice and participate in the upcoming elections. It > appears that Indonesia’s young fledging democracy is well > and alive evident by the election process becoming an > important part of life. > > > > > > > Best regards, > > Wuddy Warsono, CFA > CLSA Indonesia | Head of Sales > Phone: (62-21) 573 9460 > Toll Free - HK: 800 938 000 > Toll Free - SIN: 800 621 1104 > Toll Free - US: 800 460 2581 > wuddy.wars...@clsa.com > > > > CLSA CLEAN & GREEN: Please consider our environment > before printing this email. > The content of this communication is subject to CLSA Legal > and Regulatory Notices. > These can be viewed at https://www.clsa.com/disclaimer.html > or sent to you upon request. > > > Apakah saya bisa menurunkan berat badan? Temukan > jawabannya di Yahoo! Answers! > http://id.answers.yahoo.com > > ------------------------------------ > > + + > + + + + + > Mohon saat meREPLY posting, text dari posting lama dihapus > kecuali diperlukan agar CONTEXTnya jelas. > + + + + + > + +Yahoo! Groups Links > > > Bersenang-senang di Yahoo! 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