http://msnbc.msn.com/id/6766600/site/newsweek/
Deconstructing the Bin Laden Tapes The messages are coming more frequently now and have a new tone. Does that mean a new U.S. attack is imminent? WEB-EXCLUSIVE COMMENTARY By Michael Isikoff and Mark Hosenball Newsweek Updated: 5:36 p.m. ET Dec. 29, 2004 Dec. 29 - The two big explosions that rocked the capital of Saudi Arabia Wednesday evening reinforce concerns among U.S. intelligence analysts that Osama bin Laden's increasingly frequent broadcast messages are still finding a receptive audience in the Arab world. The latest bombings in Riyadh-including one apparent car bomb near the Saudi Interior Ministry-come less than two weeks after an audiotape by the Al Qaeda leader blasted the Saudi rulers for "violating God's rules." The tape also praised as "our brothers" the men who attacked the U.S. consulate in Jeddah, Saudi Arabia earlier this month. "The sins the [Saudi] regime committed are great...It practiced injustices against the people, violating their rights, humiliating their pride," Bin Laden said in the audiotape that first appeared on Dec. 16. The Saudi royal family, he asserted, was misspending public money while "millions of people are suffering from poverty and deprivation." On Tuesday, another bin Laden tape surfaced, this one endorsing the Iraqi insurgency and declaring holy war on U.S. and Iraqi forces trying to safeguard the election. Less than 24 hours later, 28 people were killed in Baghdad, when insurgents detonated three-quarters of a ton of explosives in a house that police were raiding, flattening neighboring homes. Proving a direct connection between bin Laden's taped messages and any particular terrorist attacks is difficult, if not impossible. Still, the latest developments are almost certain to bolster those analysts who argue the alarming spate of recent bin Laden messages are a harbinger of more attacks to come-rather than, as some Bush administration officials have argued, the desperate last gasps of a cowering, isolated terrorist leader trying to prove his relevance. The debate over what bin Laden is up to has intensified in recent weeks with a seemingly unprecedented public relations campaign by the Al Qaeda leader. In all, bin Laden and his chief deputy, Ayman Al-Zawahiri, will have released 11 different audio and video missives in 2004. Those messages-an average of one every six weeks-are coming at twice the rate of recent years, according to a chronology prepared by the Reuters news agency. In 2003, for example, bin Laden appeared in just four audio messages and in one video, in which he and Zawahiri appeared together taking a leisurely hike through an unidentified mountainside. In 2002, international media broadcast six bin Laden audio or video messages (including an Al Jazeera interview with bin Laden). But at least some of those 2002 messages contained time references that were so generic or non-specific that they actually fed speculation that bin Laden could be dead. Dec. 29 - Lately, the Al Qaeda leader has been anything but non-specific. Starting with a startling audiotape played by Al Jazeera just days before the U.S. presidential election-in which he made references to alleged war profiteering by Halliburton, the firm formerly headed by Vice President Dick Cheney-bin Laden has repeatedly sought to inject himself squarely into political debates in the United States and throughout the Arab world. But reaching a consensus on what these tapes mean has proven just as elusive as finding bin Laden himself. Some U.S. intelligence and policy officials argue that the tapes demonstrate that bin Laden is unable to order or carry out attacks himself and that he has been reduced to a sidelines role as Islamic jihad's most prominent cheerleader. In his most recent messages-including the Dec. 16 audio blessing the Jeddah attack and the Dec. 27 tape praising the Iraqi jihadi leader Abu Mussab al-Zarqawi-bin Laden has tried to associate Al Qaeda with terror attacks perpetrated by local groups. An intelligence official noted that one theme that was present in bin Laden's messages before and immediately after 9/11-that Americans are "wimps" who don't have the spiritual fortitude to stand up to the aspirations of fierce and righteous Islamic warriors-has now vanished from bin Laden and Zawahiri's more recent messages. "What this means is that we're winning," said a Bush Administration official. But other experts sharply dispute this analysis. Michael Scheuer, a former chief of the CIA's bin Laden "unit" who recently left the agency after publishing "Imperial Hubris," a book critical of the Bush administration anti-terror policy, says that benign analysis is "wishful thinking." Scheuer believes recent bin Laden and Zawahiri messages suggest that the Al Qaeda leadership has now decided to go ahead with another huge attack inside the United States. Scheuer says that the ease and frequency with which bin Laden and Zawahiri recently have circulated messages suggests that "they're much more comfortable than they used to be." Some analysts note that the production values of recent messages-notably the bin Laden video broadcast on Al Jazeera just before the U.S. presidential election-have been relatively sophisticated. And because such messages have contained U.S. pop culture references (such as allusions to elements in Michael Moore's anti-Bush film "Fahrenheit 9/11"), this means that bin Laden and Zawahiri have may well be hiding out in an urban environment-such as a Pakistani city-where up-to-date technology would be more readily available. Scheuer said that one message that particularly makes him fear that Al Qaeda is preparing another attack on the United States was a late-November Zawahiri videotape in which the Egyptian doctor says, in effect, that the U.S. government and public have ignored Al Qaeda's warnings to stop attacking Muslims and therefore that Al Qaeda will continue to attack the United States. Some Muslim scholars have criticized bin Laden over the 9/11 attacks because of Islamic scriptural references which appear to outlaw surprise attacks; in Scheuer's view, bin Laden and Zawahiri consider their recent broadcast messages explicit warnings. Both Scheuer and several government analysts agree that in their 2004 messages, bin Laden and Zawahiri appear to be presenting themselves more as politicians than terrorist leaders, making their points through political arguments rather than simply bloodcurdling threats. Scheuer warns, however, that this by no means is evidence that they have decided to move away from terrorism. ------------------------ Yahoo! Groups Sponsor --------------------~--> $4.98 domain names from Yahoo!. Register anything. http://us.click.yahoo.com/Q7_YsB/neXJAA/yQLSAA/TySplB/TM --------------------------------------------------------------------~-> -------------------------- Want to discuss this topic? Head on over to our discussion list, [EMAIL PROTECTED] -------------------------- Brooks Isoldi, editor [EMAIL PROTECTED] http://www.intellnet.org Post message: osint@yahoogroups.com Subscribe: [EMAIL PROTECTED] Unsubscribe: [EMAIL PROTECTED] *** FAIR USE NOTICE. 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