http://today.reuters.com/news/articlenews.aspx?type=topNews <http://today.reuters.com/news/articlenews.aspx?type=topNews&storyID=2006-08 -08T213944Z_01_N08179832_RTRUKOC_0_US-KOREA-NORTH-ECONOMY.xml&archived=False > &storyID=2006-08-08T213944Z_01_N08179832_RTRUKOC_0_US-KOREA-NORTH-ECONOMY.xm l&archived=False N.Korea atomic test seen harming NE Asia economies Tue Aug 8, 2006 5:39 PM ET WASHINGTON (Reuters) - A test of a nuclear weapon by North Korea would have a "negative though not cataclysmic" impact on South Korea's economy and could pose strains on China, said a study on Tuesday by a leading U.S. economist. An analysis by Marcus Noland of the Institute for International Economics found that among North Korea's neighbors, South Korea was the most economically vulnerable to a nuclear breakout by the North. A test by isolated North Korea, which declared itself a nuclear power in February 2005 without testing, could cause Japan to suffer some capital flight. China had slight economic exposure to North Korea, but could suffer if a crisis provoked by Pyongyang soured ties with the West and Japan, it said. "The economic implications of a nuclear test for the region while not catastrophic, would not be benign," wrote Noland, a leading expert on the North Korean economy. Defying international warnings, North Korea test-fired seven missiles on July 5 in a move that was later condemned in a U.N. Security Council resolution. Talks on ending North Korea's nuclear programs among the two Koreas, China, Japan, Russia and the United States have been stalled since November. Noland's 22-page study used the results of the 1998 nuclear test by Pakistan that drew widespread sanctions against Islamabad and the 1997-98 financial crisis in South Korea to project the economic impact of a North Korean nuclear test. South Korea's vulnerability to a market panic has risen because its financial system is far more open and the level of foreign investors' participation is far greater than it was during the late 1990s financial meltdown, the study said. Seoul authorities, however, have official reserves of over $200 billion and the legal ability to reimpose capital controls to mitigate the crisis, the study added. China, with huge reserves and an economy centered on coastal regions "would appear to be the least economically threatened by a nuclear test," Noland wrote. But China had indirect exposure to North Korean provocations if trade partners reacted to Beijing's role as the main backer of Pyongyang, the study said. "A political dispute that spilled into trade policy or simply contributed to soured trade relations with the U.S., Japan, and EU could significantly harm China's economy," it said.
[Non-text portions of this message have been removed] -------------------------- Want to discuss this topic? Head on over to our discussion list, [EMAIL PROTECTED] -------------------------- Brooks Isoldi, editor [EMAIL PROTECTED] http://www.intellnet.org Post message: osint@yahoogroups.com Subscribe: [EMAIL PROTECTED] Unsubscribe: [EMAIL PROTECTED] *** FAIR USE NOTICE. This message contains copyrighted material whose use has not been specifically authorized by the copyright owner. OSINT, as a part of The Intelligence Network, is making it available without profit to OSINT YahooGroups members who have expressed a prior interest in receiving the included information in their efforts to advance the understanding of intelligence and law enforcement organizations, their activities, methods, techniques, human rights, civil liberties, social justice and other intelligence related issues, for non-profit research and educational purposes only. We believe that this constitutes a 'fair use' of the copyrighted material as provided for in section 107 of the U.S. Copyright Law. If you wish to use this copyrighted material for purposes of your own that go beyond 'fair use,' you must obtain permission from the copyright owner. For more information go to: http://www.law.cornell.edu/uscode/17/107.shtml Yahoo! Groups Links <*> To visit your group on the web, go to: http://groups.yahoo.com/group/osint/ <*> To unsubscribe from this group, send an email to: [EMAIL PROTECTED] <*> Your use of Yahoo! Groups is subject to: http://docs.yahoo.com/info/terms/
