http://www.guardian.co.uk/midterms2006/story/0,,1944466,00.html
Vice-president faces isolation over Iran and Syria after key ally leaves Pentagon Julian Borger Friday November 10, 2006 The Guardian Donald Rumsfeld's replacement by Robert Gates at the Pentagon could mark the most significant shift in the balance of power inside the Bush administration since it took office nearly six years ago, with consequences for both Iraq and Iran. Political observers in Washington predicted that the appointment could pave the way for talks with Iran and Syria in a bid to contain the violence in Iraq, and could also put off a military confrontation with Iran over its nuclear programme. Donald Rumsfeld's departure and the Democratic takeover of Congress leaves Dick Cheney isolated in Washington, and almost alone in his backing for a military solution to the Iranian challenge. The Cheney-Rumsfeld axis acted as a stone wall around the White House, keeping out criticisms and doubts. Now, those doubts are beginning to seep in, opening the way for a fundamental rethink of policy. However, that does not mean that Mr Cheney's influence is at an end. He has a formidable staff within the White House and remains an important influence on the president. "He's isolated but you know when you corner a dangerous animal, it doesn't make him any less dangerous," said a senior Democratic foreign policy official. "He's going to continue to push for what he believes in. It doesn't mean he's going to put his toys away and go home." Melvin Goodman, a former CIA official who worked under Mr Gates, expressed doubts that Mr Gates has the strength of conviction to stand up to Mr Cheney. "He never has, so it would be the first time," said Mr Goodman, now a senior fellow at the Centre for International Policy. Nevertheless, the choice of Mr Gates strengthens the hand of Condoleezza Rice, who has clashed repeatedly with the Pentagon. The two know each other from their days as Soviet experts in the first Bush White House. Both feel more at home with the foreign policy pragmatists around the elder George Bush than among the neo-conservatives who rallied to the current president. In terms of the family conflict that has provided a Shakespearean backdrop to the administration, it represents near total victory for the father over the son. The elder Bush distrusted Mr Rumsfeld and warned against his appointment. Mr Gates, by contrast, is very much his man. When Mr Gates, as deputy-director of the CIA, was tainted by the Iran-Contra scandal of the Reagan era, Mr Bush stood by him and gave him the top job in the agency in 1991. Mr Gates demonstrated his loyalty by becoming the curator of the Bush presidential library in Texas. As the Iraq war grinds on, and the broader neoconservative project in the Middle East is sliding towards disaster, former aides to the elder Bush - once spurned by his son - are reappearing one by one at the policy-making helm. "In the past, when Bush got enmeshed in a big mistake ... daddy came to the rescue - that's what's happening here," said Vincent Cannistraro, a former counter-terrorist chief of operations at the CIA. "Daddy was insistent on getting Gates in." James Baker, the secretary of state in the first Bush administration, has already saved the younger Bush from disaster, taking charge of the legal effort in Florida that clinched victory in the 2000 election. He now plays a pivotal role as the co-chairman of the Iraq Study Group. Mr Gates is a member of the commission and his appointment guarantees that its recommendations will be given a favourable hearing. "At least he'll read the thing," Mr Goodman said. "Rumsfeld would have thrown it out of the window." Both Mr Baker and Mr Gates have advocated the multilateralism that was typical of Bush senior but not Bush junior. In particular they believe the US should talk to Iraq's neighbours, Iran and Syria. Mr Gates co-authored a study on Iran policy two years ago which concluded that Washington should hold comprehensive talks with Tehran before it achieved nuclear capability. His fellow author was President Jimmy Carter's national security advisor, Zbigniew Brzezinski, who yesterday declared Mr Gates's selection as "the best appointment President Bush has made in the course of his six years in office." However, resistance to opening a dialogue with Iran will be fierce, particularly from Mr Cheney, and Mr Baker has made clear his commission will have no easy solutions to the mess in Iraq. +++ -------------------------- Want to discuss this topic? 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