Strategic factors in India-Bangladesh relations
Brigadier General M. Sakhawat Hussain (retd) Current Indo-Bangla relations could hardly be classified as any thing but warm, depending upon which stratum of India one is talking about. I find four strata of India. One, political, two, bureaucratic (military inclusive), three, commercial and four is the common peoples' India. One could still make a few more strata, if one wishes to. However, this could be true of any third world country. Our relation, both commercial and with the people of India, seem to be the warmest but relation with other two strata appears to have not cemented well. It could be for the reason that political and bureaucratic India wishes to base its relation with Bangladesh on strategic plains directly related to India's security. Delhi still finds Bangladesh a strategic hinterland that it sees as a hurdle in its national integration, particularly in relation to her North Eastern State (NES) The above contention is on the basis of my discussion with one of the prominent Indian intellectual and journalists, close to the policy makers in Delhi, Dr. VP Vaidik, who visited Bangladesh to attend a seminar organised by the BIISS on 8-9 December 2004 to commemorate the third decade of SAARC, Dhaka being the birth place of the Association. The seminar was participated by eminent SAARC personalities from five member countries. Maldives and Bhutan did not participate. Dr. Vaidik is the current chairman of 'Council for Indian Foreign Policy' a think tank that assists the Indian foreign office with their counselling. He was also editor of the Hindi daily 'Nababharat' and of PTI (Hindi). He brought a new concept of SAARC that he termed as peoples SAARC to foster better cooperation between all South Asian peoples, side by side the governmental effort. However, my discussion was not on the talk that he delivered on December 10, 2004 at BIISS but on his perception of Indo-Bangla relation at an informal gathering at CNA (Council for national Agenda, a private think tank). Though it was not his first visit to Bangladesh yet he termed this visit as special than those he had as part of Indian delegations. His current visit gave him the opportunity to see for himself the so-called 'hard-line Islamic Bangladesh', a perception that most of the elite in Delhi hold. He was candid and forthright admitting that he neither found Bangladeshis 'hard-liner' nor 'militant' as he himself was attired in a traditional Hindu dress. In his short talk on bilateral relation he admitted that policy makers in Delhi are being fed with motivated and wrong inputs as far as Bangladesh is concerned. He emphatically suggested that Delhi should shun the 'Big Brother attitude' and rather behave as 'Elder Brother' with the smaller neighbours. In his opinion, 'elder brotherly behaviour' is much opposed to 'Big Brother' attitude. One is associated with eastern values of love, affection and sacrifice and the other is with 'bossing'. Dr. Vaidik agreed that it is India who needs to take a few more steps to cover the distance that has been created specially with Bangladesh with adverse propaganda made by many eminent Indians. Delhi's continued rhetoric did not prove to be fruitful in closing the gap that was created ever since the BNP and its ally, the Islamic parties, formed the government. Change in Delhi's seat of power did not change the policy towards Bangladesh; rather new avenues of discord opened. While going through my paper on Indo- Bangladesh relation that I presented as key note paper at an earlier seminar, Dr, Vaidik agreed that there exists perceptive misunderstanding between security experts of New Delhi and Dhaka in particular reference to NES. Indians have been accusing Bangladesh of sheltering the NE States insurgents within Bangladesh. India claims that 195 camps are within Bangladesh belonging to various Indian insurgency groups who are at war with the central authority. New Delhi blames the Bangladesh government of colluding with Pakistan to create an independent Muslim state out of part of Asom or annex the Muslim majority part of Asom to Bangladesh, a fallacious claim that defies all logic. Insurgency in that part of India is not a recent phenomenon rather half a century plus old. According to Indian analysts the region is infested with 130 ill organised insurgent groups. Around 5 lakhs security forces are currently deployed in counter insurgency operation given special power with huge border security forces deployed all along Indo-Bangla border. At places borders are barbed wired to prevent illegal crossings. It is difficult to fathom, having such tight border control, why the Indian authority cannot prevent insurgents crossing over at will as claimed by New Delhi. Delhi's rhetoric on the issue strongly suggests that the Delhi's Bangladesh watchers believe that Dhaka is out to create a Lebensraum to resolve its population-to-space crises. The suggestion seems to be nothing but indicative of Delhi's fear of Muslim growth within India. Of the six districts of Asom that Delhi identifies as the fastest growing Muslim majority districts, four are adjacent to Bangladesh. This is not a new trend as claimed by Delhi. These districts have always been Muslim majority areas specially Karimganj, Dhubri and Goalpara. Interestingly, for the last couple of years many prominent Indian 'think tank' have been identifying Bangladesh as 'cocoon of Islamic terrorism' claiming that its Islamists are part of Osama bin Laden led IIF (International Islamic Front), an anti West Jihadi front. Delhi also claims Government connection with HUJI (Harkat-ul-Jihad-i-Islami), a Bangladeshi chapter of Pakistani Jihadi organisation, and a forefront organisation charged with training South East Asian Jihadists like Jamai-Islamia. The suggestions also indicated how Madrasas are preparing Jihadist to 'Talibanise' Bangladesh. India's top analysts also believe that these Jihadists were out to disrupt US interest in the region and Dhaka presents greater threat to the stability of India's NE. These impudent propaganda have two fold aims. One, to internationalise Bangladesh as an 'extremist country', two, create pressure on Dhaka to resolve outstanding issues those identified as vital strategic concerns for India, with special reference to NE Indian integration. A few among these concerns are, corridor, use of port, gas pipeline and joint military operation against so-called insurgents camp, much in line of Bhutan. However, it now seems that Bangladesh did better allowing US agencies to investigate these accusations on ground. It would not be out of place to mention that India has been denying Bangladesh transit right for Nepal for commercial purpose on strategic ground. Let me quote from one of the recent analyses made by Anand Kumar in SAAG (South Asian Analysis Group) paper no; 1216 titled ' India-Myanmar Gas Pipeline Through Bangladesh-pipe Dream' on the Nepal corridor," any free trans-national movement through the sensitive 'Siliguri Corridor' may not be acceptable to India. Bangladesh is fully aware of the situation". It is needless to say that we have hardly weighed the strategic implication of Gas Pipeline or corridor or opening our port. Be that as it may, in course of our discussion with Mr. Vaidik, I brought up the issue of the Indian perception of Sino-Bangla relationship. New Delhi views Sino- Bangla relationship as growing strategic nexus on her eastern periphery, much like Sino-Pak strategic collusion on the western flank. Defence analysts close to Indian military, views these relations as Chinese bid to envelop India from the flanks in a given time. A recent article published in SAAG, views Indo-Bangla relation through the prism of Indian national security. The article suggests, "Every Indian government is very sensitive to its national security that takes priority in formulating India's foreign policy. Particularly it is true for the neighbouring countries". The concern increases, as India would like to enter the exclusive club of the Big Powers. However, the article continues suggesting that Indian policy towards Bangladesh would always be factored by China-Bangladesh military collaboration, which, according to Indian analysts, have matured over last thirty years. However, the above quoted article not only details Indian concern of the Sino-Bangla collusion but cautions USA of the growing China-Bangladesh-Myanmar nexus in the Bay of Bengal which, according to Delhi, may prove to be anti-US interest in the region. Indian warning did not go unheeded as RAND Corporation, one of the think tanks close to US administration, in its annual strategic paper mentioned "given the proximity of this region (Bangladesh and Myanmar) to China, these countries would likely to be reluctant to become too closely aligned with United States, in the event of heightened tension". Keeping the above in view, one may not be wrong to suggest that US deputy secretary state, South Asia, Mr. Torkel Peterson's visit to Chittagong and his suggestions, were purely based on economic issues. While concluding my discussion with Dr. Vaidik, who admitted that he was ignorant of the fact that Indo-Bangla relation was so much dependent on the strategic factors, which India views as essential for her national security. India's national security perception is to acquire and maintain dominant power status in the region capable of challenging Chinese growth, much akin to US interest in South and South East Asia. Many Indian intellectuals like Dr. Vaidik may not have any trepidation of strategic issues but fact remains that military analysts remain concerned with the growing strategic importance that Bangladesh is acquiring since the disintegration of the Soviet Union and rapid Chinese ascendancy as Asian super power. However, what we need to underscore is the fact that our relation with India is much influenced by the strategic issues those Delhi views as vital for her march to become at least a dominant Asian power. We have to live with that geo-strategic fact and preserve our national interest. The author is a defense analyst. http://thedailystar.net/strategic/2005/01/02/strategic.htm __________________________________ Do you Yahoo!? The all-new My Yahoo! - What will yours do? http://my.yahoo.com ------------------------ Yahoo! Groups Sponsor --------------------~--> Take a look at donorschoose.org, an excellent charitable web site for anyone who cares about public education! http://us.click.yahoo.com/_OLuKD/8WnJAA/cUmLAA/TySplB/TM --------------------------------------------------------------------~-> -------------------------- Want to discuss this topic? 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