Title: RE: [PEN-L] New York Times on Scarcity
Do the increases in some price indexes in the last couple of months represent a trend change from a disinflationary to an inflationary period?
Michael was inclined to think so, asking us to contemplate the possibility of stagflation. Falling unit
icity of supply schedules.
But for the sake of argument, assume you're right. Then wouldn't an enlightened bourgeoisie prefer higher interest rates to bring aggregate demand into line with the constraints on aggregate supply, rather than having to finance even more foreign adventu
Title: RE: [PEN-L] mixed economic signals
-Original Message-
From: Sabri Oncu [mailto:[EMAIL PROTECTED]]
Sent: Tuesday, April 20, 2004 8:26 PM
To: [EMAIL PROTECTED]
Subject: Re: [PEN-L] mixed economic signals
Sabri Oncu writes:
I read that "noise traders" paper by Summers et al.
-Original Message-
From: Devine, James
[mailto:[EMAIL PROTECTED]
Sent: Tuesday, April
20, 2004 7:21 PM
To: [EMAIL PROTECTED]
Subject: Re: [PEN-L]
>If the Fed
doesn't see it that way, it seems unlikely that it will succeed (except by
accident). The >Fed, of course, denies
th
task, when it decides to raise interest rates, will be to goad noise traders into unwinding their long positions gradually, as opposed to the more likely panicked stampede for the exits. An apt metaphor is trying to let some air out of a balloon without either popping or deflating it.
Edwin (Tom) Dickens
Title: [pen-l] mixed economic signals
Scrap metal and other raw material prices top my list of resource costs that may raise the spectre of inflation. But much the same argument used to argue for a real estate bubble can be used to argue for commodity price bubbles, no? If so, then the risk
to re-assert itself. No doubt US-based financial capital is also weary of a falling dollar.
Edwin (Tom) Dickens
-placed to share with us Latin
American perspectives on issues such as dollarization. I hope Pedro will be an
active participant, and look forward to a new perspective on many of the issues
we've been discussing.
Edwin (Tom) Dickens
;the primary task of central banks is to get
monetary policy right--that is, to pursue policies that effectively
promote the objectives established by their legislatures or parliaments,
such as stable prices, full employment, and maximum sustainable growth."
Should we take him at his word on this too?
Edwin (Tom) Dickens
Hi Michael,
I'm very interested!
Very Best Wishes,
Tom
Michael Perelman wrote:
>
> A retiring colleague is willing to donate all the back issues of RRPE to a
> deserving institution or person.
> --
> Michael Perelman
> Economics Department
> California State University
> Chico, CA 95929
>
>
ing in 1970, can be fruitfully seen as an effort to find a way to
surprise the markets, and thus maximize its announcement effects. Just
compare the recent moves that were a surprise with those that were
anticipated...
Edwin (Tom) Dickens
[EMAIL PROTECTED] wrote:
>
> Isn't the Fed
an affirmative-action employer and salary is competitive. If you or
someone you know is interested, please contact me or send your c.v. to
Bernard Smith, Department of Economics, Drew University, Madison NJ,
07940.
Very Best Wishes,
Edwin (Tom) Dickens
T.. Do you disagree? Also, my
computer can't find the link you provide. Could you check it? Thanks
again.
Edwin (Tom) Dickens
Yoshie Furuhashi wrote:
>
> >I just did a quick scan of my files. I cannot find it. I don't think that it
> >was a major point for him, but
Could you be more specific about what you mean by Keynes' later concern
with inflation? In particular, do you think Keynes abandoned his view of
monetary policy in the G.T. in order to assign it a role in fighting
inflation?
Edwin (Tom) Dickens
[EMAIL PROTECTED] wrote:
>
> Thi
ntly, the lack of a
"world hegemon" exacerbated the Great Depression. But you do not agree
with Kindleberger, since such a "world hegemon" only replaces stagnation
with stagflation, right?
Edwin (Tom) Dickens
at more or less
right, Michael?
Edwin (Tom) Dickens
em for your--and Michael's--argument that the
only way out of a crisis (e.g., in Japan right now) is to liquidate real
estate, liquidate labor, etc., as Andrew Mellon used to say?
Edwin (Tom) Dickens
Ted,
You quote Marx's explanations of financial crises in terms of a flight from
financial assets, including fiat monies, to gold. What are the
implications of the fact that this did not occur for the relevance of Marx
to understanding recent financial crises?
Edwin (Tom) Dickens
ify
such a change, either strategy could be interpreted as a sign of panic--a
nice way to unhinge the dollar?
Edwin (Tom) Dickens
Doug Henwood wrote:
>
> Edwin Dickens wrote:
>
> > Either a new
> >consensus forecast for interest rates will form or the Fed will begin to
greed and fear. Their only
anchor is the Fed's credibility. If it goes, then I think it will be clear
that monetary policy has powerful real effects, a lot more than one-tenth
of a percent over two years.
Edwin (Tom) Dickens
the powers of financial
policy are limited.
Edwin (Tom) Dickens
r corporate bond rates. This kind of disconnect
between Fed signals and market movements is unsustainable. Either a new
consensus forecast for interest rates will form or the Fed will begin to
lose its sacred "credibility."
Edwin (Tom) Dickens
o paper and a terrible
> credit crunch as a result.
>
I don't recall a terrible credit crunch during the Fed's tightening in
1994-95, at least not on a scale comparable to the credit crunch of
1990-91, which caused a recession. But maybe I'm missing something because
I'm not sure what "flight to paper" means.
Edwin (Tom) Dickens
ommittees at large firms listen to staff reports that discount
expected profits by hurdle rates. But the effect of Keynes' "animal
spirits," irrational exuberance, etc., on expected profits reduces the
finely calibrated present-value calculations to absurdity.
Edwin (Tom) Dickens
Ellen
Michael Perelman wrote:
>
> The magical yield curve supposedly indicates the type of pressures that are
> building up in the economy. Operation Twist was supposed to manipulate the
> environment.
>
Like fiscal surpluses to spend?
Jim Devine wrote:
>
> The Fed is driving up (and tomorrow probably will drive up) short rates
> while the Treasury is driving down long rates. However, as Ellen notes,
> there are real limits to this.
The Treasury probably has $220 billion to spend on long bonds between now
and November.
Michael Perelman wrote:
>
> As I recall the explanation, long-term capital investment depends upon
> long-term rates, while short-term consumption is affected by short-term
> rates. In fact, of course, investment is pretty insensitive to interest
> rates.
>
The argument has less to do with shor
market? An argument for the former, leaving
aside theoretical considerations such as the capital controversies, is that
central banks and finance ministeries prefer a "bills only" policy.
Edwin (Tom) Dickens
I don't know Jim, what do you think? Was it the purchase of long-term
bonds that failed to put downward pressure on their yields, the sale of
short-term bonds that failed to put upward pressure on their yields, or
both?
Edwin (Tom) Dickens
will ensure
that the yield curve is always positively sloped. What mainstream
economists think about the yield curve has changed a lot since the early
1960s.
Edwin (Tom) Dickens
funds rate. But since it's long term interst rates that are most important
to domestic aggregate demand, the over-all effect should be quite
stimulative. That's Operation Twist all over again. That's also the
political business cycle at its best.
Edwin (Tom) Dickens
Yes: Could someone please explain why Doug and Lou are suddenly being
nice-nice?
Edwin (Tom) Dickens
Chris Burford wrote:
>
> At 17:32 06/03/00 -0500, Doug wrote:
> >Louis Proyect wrote:
> >
> >>Actually, I can't think of a more lucid presentation of Keynsian
How do we get copies?
"Max B. Sawicky" wrote:
>
> So let's have this puppy!
>
> mbs
>
> I have recently finished a paper titled "Price Discrimination,
> Electronic Redlining, and Price Fixing in de-regulated electric power."
> . . .
evolution in fiscal policy was designed to disorganize the only labor
offensive in United States history--as some of us have argued, then
something similar to the Keynesian Revolution may only be possible if labor
succeeds in its current organizing drive.
Edwin (Tom) Dickens
Many thanks. This is great stuff.
Edwin (Tom) Dickens
[EMAIL PROTECTED] wrote:
>
> The Financial Markets Center web site has a Glass-Steagall Repeal page at
> http://www.fmcenter.org/fmc_superpage.asp?ID=245
>
> The page contains summaries (short and long) of major provisions
Does anybody know of articles on what exactly the banking legislation
passed in the fall says and does? To avoid clutter, please respond
off-list.
Edwin (Tom) Dickens
call for paying down the debt, they'll be outmaneuvered into large tax cuts
for the rich rather than more social spending?
Edwin (Tom) Dickens
Max Sawicky wrote:
>
> http://www.newsday.com/coverage/current/editorial/wednesday/nd679.htm
All this talk of evil strikes me as belonging in a religious discourse
rather than in that of a social scientist, whatever the discipline.
Edwin (Tom) Dickens
Nathan Newman wrote:
>
> Maybe it's because I am trained as a sociologist rather than an >economist, I don't
>
(Tom) Dickens
Hinrich Kuhls wrote:
>
> mbs:
>
> >Re (1), for evidence on U.S. public opinion favoring
> >non-defense public spending, see http://epinet.org
>
> Perhaps I misinterpret the statement, the EPI Brief #134 or both, but I
> think the "Statement to G
I vote for calling Max "FLOP" from now on.
Edwin (Tom) Dickens
Max Sawicky wrote:
>
> >>
> Finally, are other people besides the two Jims, Ricardo, and a few others
> interested in this thread? Or should I demand in this cease once and for
> all in 24 hours?
One-Year Sabbatical Replacement Position in Economics
Drew University, Madison, NJ
The Department of Economics at Drew University is inviting applications
for a one-year sabbatical replacement position for the 1999-2000 academic
year. Our primary fields of interest are economic development an
Duncan Foley has accepted an endowed chair in the
NS Economics Department. Will Milburg is the
new Department Chair.
Edwin Dickens
right? This is the
"regulatory issue" right now. But I was much more
interested in the apparent drift of thinking on this
list away from Post Keynesian monetary theory. If anybody
would address that issue, I'd appreciate it. Thanks
for missing me, Max!
Edwin Dickens
travelers think
that the benefits of central banks to private banks (e.g.
insurance against bankruptcy, no matter how risky their
investments) far outweigh whatever costs are imposed.
Edwin Dickens
Michael Perelman wrote:
>...wartime finance started to hurt the stock market.
When? For how long?
Edwin Dickens
Another possibility, Michael, is The Pathology Of The US
Economy, by Michael Perelman.
Edwin Dickens
). I'm looking for
what an old dinosaur like you is finding of value
in Foucault.
Edwin Dickens
Does anyone know how to contact David P. Ellerman?
Thanks in advance,
Edwin Dickens
Robert Naiman asks:
>Does anyone have the quote and cite where Keynes talked about
>the "euthanasia of the rentier?
"Now, though this state of affairs would be quite compatible
with some measure of individualism, yet it would mean the
euthanasia of the rentier, and, consequently, the euthanasia
is political writings is the fundamental
lacunae in Marx's oeuvre. And to my mind the theory of interest
rate determination is crucial to filling in that lacunae.
Edwin Dickens
is political writings is the fundamental
lacunae in Marx's oeuvre. And to my mind the theory of interest
rate determination is crucial to filling in that lacunae.
Edwin Dickens
financial capital was growing in strength
relative to industrial capital in the early 1980s, and vice
versa in the early 1990s. I'm skeptical, but open to
anyone who wants to try and resolve the issue by constructing
an index of the relative strengths of financial and
industrial capital.
Edwin Dickens
financial capital was growing in strength
relative to industrial capital in the early 1980s, and vice
versa in the early 1990s. I'm skeptical, but open to
anyone who wants to try and resolve the issue by constructing
an index of the relative strengths of financial and
industrial capital.
Edwin Dickens
the analysis in passages that are,
according to Gil Skillman, unimportant.
Edwin Dickens
ine the (average) level of the interest rate?
Edwin Dickens
Trevor Evans wrote:
>And yet...Marx and Keynes both argued that the interest rate
>is determined by the relative balance of supply and demand
>in the market for money capital.
Where did they do that?
Edwin Dickens
ude
estimates" you would make of the CJL would be no more heroic
than the ones underlying the other variables in such a reaction
function.
Edwin Dickens
Eric,
Can you calculate the cost of job loss series on a quarterly
basis?
Edwin Dickens
Gil, could you explain your statement that
>Marx *consistently* and *unambiguously* states that
>usury and merchant's capital prior to the era of the
>capitalist mode of production, *when extended directly
>to small producers*, created surplus value.
Edwin Dickens
Jim D. writes:
>In sum, we don't disagree.
I don't think that's allowed on PEN-L. Be careful, Jim,
you'll get us expelled.
Edwin Dickens
erson does not.
Edwin Dickens
ity rents?
Doing so adds nothing to Marx's analyses and opens you...if
nothing else, to the charge of obtuseness.
Edwin Dickens
by Bortkiewicz and Bohm-Bawerk explaining their
interest in the transformation problem? What's the purpose
of trying to blow out the foundations of a theoretical
edifice if not to bring it crashing down?
Edwin Dickens
lue
and distribution, to affirm that theory. And perhaps
to say the same thing in a slightly different way, I
would by most interested to hear how the interpretation
of profit as a form of scarcity rent is "not inconsistent"
with the classical approach.
Edwin Dickens
to develop research programs. The Skillman-
Devine slugfest is invaluable in this regard.
Edwin Dickens
gt;about it.
There has been a rising volume of both left sectarianism and
redbaiting on this list. I commend Michael Perelman for the
exemplary way he has dealt with these problems and oppose
a efforts to limit his discretion.
Edwin Dickens
higher interest rates.
Edwin Dickens
Dear Neil.
Eould you please identify yourself more fully.
[EMAIL PROTECTED] means nothing.
Edwin Dickens
ing reason for the majority to join our side."
Edwin Dickens
ded here. Gina
Neff posted data on February 8 that suggests the military budget
is extremely important. And I should think that the slogan of
a "peace dividend" is something EPI could make use of.
Edwin Dickens
If the rate of capital accumulation is a positive function of
the rate of exploitation, and cjl measures the ability of capital
to exploit labor, then these numbers appear to be a problem.
Edwin Dickens
ny of his work.
Edwin Dickens
Eric,
Was it with your efforts to re-calculate the cost of job loss
that David took issue with? If so, perhaps you would share
his criticisms with the list.
Thanks in advance,
Edwin Dickens
Eric Nilsson wrote:
>Last November, I gave a seminar at the New School and David
>Gordon was
st of past wars") If you're interested in this
>figures let me know and I can try to find who originally did the study.
Please do post the figures, if it wouldn't be too much trouble.
Edwin Dickens
"right" model of socialism should include a healthy dose of
democracy?
Edwin Dickens
ze of this "deduction" affects future accumulation.
Edwin Dickens
ction of the
demand for money.
I think I'd be repeating myself to respond to the rest of Jim's missive
except to note that it only took Congressional pressure, not revolution,
to get exchange controls in the past.
in pen-l solidarity,
Edwin Dickens
es up, not U.S. interest rates down. So Michael's
original point still stands: Greenspan has the power to kill people.
Edwin Dickens
, meaning lower inflationary expectations.
What incredible obfuscation. I guess that's what a
formal training in economics is for: To make a case for
tightening monetary policy when that's the last thing we
need.
Edwin Dickens
nt of the
domestic economy depends upon being free to have the appropriate
interest rate without reference to the rates prevailing in the
rest of the world. Capital controls is a corollary to this
(Keynes, Collected Works, Vol. XXV, p. 149).
Edwin Dickens
I second Brent McClintock's request that Doug Henwood reconsider
his vow of silence. Edwin Dickens
with
an organization where self-identified "Marxist economists" feel
unwelcome?
Edwin Dickens
the Andean region. Next fall, we would like to have two
general seminars that survey the region. Then in the
spring we would like to have five seminars that dwell
in depth on special topics. If you would like to lead
one of the seminars, please contact me at the address
below. Thank you.
Edw
It's time to see how far the Fed can be pushed. Build up
some liquidity. Maybe spread some rumors of imminent Fed
action and sell short on the "inside information." But
Greenspan insists he's not intimidated because "wages
do not seem to be accelerating despite scattered reports
of some skilled-
It's time to see how far the Fed can be pushed. Build up
some liquidity. Maybe spread some rumors of imminent Fed
action and sell short on the "inside information." But
Greenspan insists he's not intimidated because "wages
do not seem to be accelerating despite scattered reports
of some skilled-
Loanable Funds and rentiers don't strike me as useful concepts
for understanding interest rate determination. Loanable funds
theory assumes that interest rates equilibrate investments and
savings. As such, it has nothing to do with Marx and is logically
inconsistent because of re-switching and r
Loanable Funds and rentiers don't strike me as useful concepts
for understanding interest rate determination. Loanable funds
theory assumes that interest rates equilibrate investments and
savings. As such, it has nothing to do with Marx and is logically
inconsistent because of re-switching and r
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