--------------B1E2E4AC243B93B1AFD657D4 Crisis Opens Door for Communists MOSCOW -- (Reuters) The political shakeup in Russia has raised the prospect of the Communist Party joining a coalition government and taking its biggest slice of power since the collapse of the Soviet Union in 1991. But many obstacles remain to the Communists returning en masse to the government, and the price they are setting acting Prime Minister Victor Chernomyrdin for approving him in office is so tough that it is almost unacceptable. "We will only support a policy and a leadership that would clearly and straightforwardly reject the so-called monetarist reforms and agree to take a different course," Communist Party leader Gennady Zyuganov said on Wednesday. Even if they did come back into the government, the Communists' chances of having a major say in policy-making or gaining control of important ministries are limited. Above all, doubts remain that the Communists are genuinely interested in assuming power and responsibility for a deep financial crisis which is unlikely to end quickly. "They want either to have all power or to continue playing in the opposition. They do not really want to go into a government under Chernomyrdin," said Alexei Kara-Murza, a political analyst who watches the Communist Party closely. "I think they still follow the Bolshevik diktat that the worse it gets (in Russia), the better it is for them. They want to strike a blow against Chernomyrdin, but want to do it in a way that the country does not realize it." Political analysts have long questioned whether the Communists want power and, despite the party's denials, have suggested they did not go flat out for power in the presidential election in 1996 because of Russia's daunting economic problems. President Boris Yeltsin rehabilitated Chernomyrdin, his veteran ally, on Sunday after sacking the four-month-old government of reformer Segrei Kiriyenko. He had sacked Chernomyrdin, 60, five months earlier. Chernomyrdin responded by saying he wanted to form a coalition government, or a government of consensus, to tackle Russia's financial crisis. He is now holding negotiations with leading political parties. Although details of the negotiations are not known, the Communists have set out their demands in a series of statements and interviews. They boil down to a change of economic course, Yeltsin's dismissal and denunciations of a multi-billion-dollar reform package agreed with the International Monetary Fund. The Communists also want a greater focus on reviving industrial and agricultural production, more social spending, support for science, culture and healthcare and a strengthening of Russia's defense potential. In short, that means a complete change of course. Victor Ilyukhin, a leading communist, told reporters the Communists want 10 places in the government, including the foreign ministry and one of the three "power" ministries -- the defense or interior portfolios or the Federal Security Service. These would be major concessions and it is hard to see the Kremlin bowing to them, even in such difficult circumstances. Yeltsin has the right to name the three "power" ministers and although some media reports say he has agreed to let Chernomyrdin fill them as he wants, letting Communists take them over would be a deep humiliation. Chernomyrdin has ruled out abandoning market reforms, even though he has promised changes in the way they are carried out. A complete reversal of the policy of the last seven years would mean acknowledging he and Yeltsin were wrong all those years. The Communists may believe they are negotiating from a position of strength, but they could be posturing and setting an impossibly hard bargain to escape having to take any responsibility for the crisis, analysts say. Their bargaining position is relatively strong. Chernomyrdin needs the support of the Duma, the lower house of parliament, to take office. The Communist Party and its allies dominate the chamber and can block his appointment if they vote in unison. Yeltsin would have to dissolve the Duma if it rejected Chernomyrdin three times, a climax deputies backed down from last April when they approved Kiriyenko after a fierce battle. This time, they might be ready to call Yeltsin's bluff. "Communist deputies have spent the summer out in their regions mustering support and finances. The party believes it could win a majority in the Duma if an early election were held now," Kara-Murza said. That could be more advantageous to the Communists than joining a government which many politicians and analysts say is more likely to fail than succeed and is only likely to improve the economy by introducing tough, unpopular measures. Another reason for the Communists to be wary is that Chernomyrdin is under no obligation to name his Cabinet until after he is approved as prime minister. Even if the Communists secured an agreement from Chernomyrdin to play a major role in his Cabinet, he would be under no legal obligation to carry out the agreement. -- Gregory Schwartz Dept. of Political Science York University 4700 Keele St. Toronto, Ontario M3J 1P3 Canada Tel: (416) 736-5265 Fax: (416) 736-5686 Web: http://www.yorku.ca/dept/polisci --------------B1E2E4AC243B93B1AFD657D4 <HTML> <FONT SIZE=+2>Crisis Opens Door for Communists</FONT> <P>MOSCOW -- (Reuters) The political shakeup in Russia has raised the prospect of the Communist Party joining a coalition government and taking its biggest slice of power since the collapse of the Soviet Union in 1991. <P>But many obstacles remain to the Communists returning en masse to the government, and the price they are setting acting Prime Minister Victor Chernomyrdin for approving him in office is so tough that it is almost unacceptable. <P>"We will only support a policy and a leadership that would clearly and straightforwardly reject the so-called monetarist reforms and agree to take a different course," Communist Party leader Gennady Zyuganov said on Wednesday. <P>Even if they did come back into the government, the Communists' chances of having a major say in policy-making or gaining control of important ministries are limited. <P>Above all, doubts remain that the Communists are genuinely interested in assuming power and responsibility for a deep financial crisis which is unlikely to end quickly. <P>"They want either to have all power or to continue playing in the opposition. They do not really want to go into a government under Chernomyrdin," said Alexei Kara-Murza, a political analyst who watches the Communist Party closely. <P>"I think they still follow the Bolshevik diktat that the worse it gets (in Russia), the better it is for them. They want to strike a blow against Chernomyrdin, but want to do it in a way that the country does not realize it." <P>Political analysts have long questioned whether the Communists want power and, despite the party's denials, have suggested they did not go flat out for power in the presidential election in 1996 because of Russia's daunting economic problems. <P>President Boris Yeltsin rehabilitated Chernomyrdin, his veteran ally, on Sunday after sacking the four-month-old government of reformer Segrei Kiriyenko. He had sacked Chernomyrdin, 60, five months earlier. <P>Chernomyrdin responded by saying he wanted to form a coalition government, or a government of consensus, to tackle Russia's financial crisis. He is now holding negotiations with leading political parties. <P>Although details of the negotiations are not known, the Communists have set out their demands in a series of statements and interviews. <P>They boil down to a change of economic course, Yeltsin's dismissal and denunciations of a multi-billion-dollar reform package agreed with the International Monetary Fund. <P>The Communists also want a greater focus on reviving industrial and agricultural production, more social spending, support for science, culture and healthcare and a strengthening of Russia's defense potential. <P>In short, that means a complete change of course. <P>Victor Ilyukhin, a leading communist, told reporters the Communists want 10 places in the government, including the foreign ministry and one of the three "power" ministries -- the defense or interior portfolios or the Federal Security Service. <P>These would be major concessions and it is hard to see the Kremlin bowing to them, even in such difficult circumstances. <P>Yeltsin has the right to name the three "power" ministers and although some media reports say he has agreed to let Chernomyrdin fill them as he wants, letting Communists take them over would be a deep humiliation. <P>Chernomyrdin has ruled out abandoning market reforms, even though he has promised changes in the way they are carried out. A complete reversal of the policy of the last seven years would mean acknowledging he and Yeltsin were wrong all those years. <P>The Communists may believe they are negotiating from a position of strength, but they could be posturing and setting an impossibly hard bargain to escape having to take any responsibility for the crisis, analysts say. <P>Their bargaining position is relatively strong. <P>Chernomyrdin needs the support of the Duma, the lower house of parliament, to take office. The Communist Party and its allies dominate the chamber and can block his appointment if they vote in unison. <P>Yeltsin would have to dissolve the Duma if it rejected Chernomyrdin three times, a climax deputies backed down from last April when they approved Kiriyenko after a fierce battle. This time, they might be ready to call Yeltsin's bluff. <P>"Communist deputies have spent the summer out in their regions mustering support and finances. The party believes it could win a majority in the Duma if an early election were held now," Kara-Murza said. <P>That could be more advantageous to the Communists than joining a government which many politicians and analysts say is more likely to fail than succeed and is only likely to improve the economy by introducing tough, unpopular measures. <P>Another reason for the Communists to be wary is that Chernomyrdin is under no obligation to name his Cabinet until after he is approved as prime minister. <P>Even if the Communists secured an agreement from Chernomyrdin to play a major role in his Cabinet, he would be under no legal obligation to carry out the agreement. <P>-- <BR>Gregory Schwartz <BR>Dept. of Political Science <BR>York University <BR>4700 Keele St. <BR>Toronto, Ontario <BR>M3J 1P3 <BR>Canada <P>Tel: (416) 736-5265 <BR>Fax: (416) 736-5686 <BR>Web: <A HREF="http://www.yorku.ca/dept/polisci">http://www.yorku.ca/dept/polisci</A> <BR> </HTML> --------------B1E2E4AC243B93B1AFD657D4--
