Electronic Telegraph (UK) 3 September 1998 [for personal use only[ Plot thickens in the struggle for power By Alan Philps in Moscow THE crisis in Russia has all the elements of a Hollywood scare movie: an ageing and obstinate president, a ruined economy, a disaffected army controlling a vast nuclear arsenal, and a parliament dominated by Communists eager to seize what may be their last chance at power. Presidents Clinton and Yeltsin face reporters' questions The battle is currently being fought according to the Russian constitution, but there are many predictions that the confrontation between President Boris Yeltsin and his parliament could spill on to the streets. The normally sober business paper Kommersant was refusing to rule out civil war yesterday. The crisis stems from Mr Yeltsin's attempt to make the lower house of parliament, the State Duma, accept his candidate for premier, Viktor Chernomyrdin. Under the 1993 constitution, the President has the right to nominate his candidate three times. If the Duma continues to vote "No", he must dissolve the assembly and call elections. In past crises, the Communists - who control almost half the Duma votes - have always shied away from the ultimate challenge to the Kremlin. But this time, they sense Mr Yeltsin's weakness following the collapse of his economic reforms. The Duma rejected Mr Chernomyrdin on Monday, and is set to do the same tomorrow. If Mr Yeltsin insists on nominating him for a third time, the stage is set for confrontation. Gennady Zyuganov, the Communist leader, said: "The nomination of Chernomyrdin is a recipe for dictatorship." Party officials do not believe that Mr Yeltsin would call new polls. They predict that he would rule by decree, using some pretext, such as the economic crisis. This would mark the end of Russia's experiment in parliamentary democracy. The big question is whether Mr Yeltsin will push for a third vote. He could propose a compromise candidate, but this would be to admit that he had finally lost the initiative. The Communists are preparing a defence tactic in case Mr Yeltsin does push Mr Chernomyrdin all the way. The constitution says the Duma cannot be dissolved once it has initiated impeachment proceedings against the president for "treason or other grave crimes". The Communists are now seeking the necessary two-thirds parliamentary majority to begin impeachment of Mr Yeltsin. If they can obtain 300 out of 450 votes, the stage would be set for a stalemate - the Duma would refuse to approve a prime minister, yet could not be dissolved. Mr Yeltsin might consider sending troops into parliament, as he did in 1993. But here, he would encounter a big problem: there are practically no army units which would go into battle for him. The retired paratroop general, Alexander Lebed, says that the army is in a revolutionary mood. Officers have not been paid for months, and their career prospects are shattered by drastic cutbacks. The army, however, has never shown much taste for entering politics, and the last attempted military coup in Russia, in 1991, ended in farce. There was speculation last week that the President was on the point of quitting and going to the German Alps where his daughter Tatyana is reported to have bought property. If he did resign, the Prime Minister would take over for three months while presidential polls were held. But nothing in Mr Yeltsin's conduct this week suggests he is ready to give in. He has always relished a fight with the Communists. To judge by his comments at yesterday's press conference with President Clinton, he still hopes to turn the economy around within two years, and be in a position to "bequeath" a successor to the nation. Many observers believe that the President is too weakened politically to carry on for more than a few months. But past experience suggests that he may use all means - constitutional or otherwise - to hang on to his power. -- Gregory Schwartz Department of Political Science York University 4700 Keele St. Toronto, Ontario M3J 1P3 Canada Tel: (416) 736-5265 Fax: (416) 736-5686 Web: http://www.yorku.ca/dept/polisci
