Barkley, perhaps because pen-l was inundated by postings yesterday, the logic of my own post may have escaped readers, but if you read my paragraph on long waves, cited again below, you will see that what I say about Frank's long waves (which are *not* the same as Braudel's long duree) is that they were interrupted by shorter kondratieff cycles. Another point, the viking invasions were not associated with a Malthusian crisis, nor was the Malthusian crisis of the 14th century preceded by "50 centuries" of famines, but I guess this latter one was just a typo. ricardo > Since Ricardo brings up "long waves" in connection > with the discussion of Frank, let me simply note that these > are Braudel "la duree" 300-400 year waves and not the lower > level 40-50 year Kondratievs. Braudel also labeled these > "geographical" cycles and they have demographic, even > Malthusian, component that is very important. > Thus, for Braudel, "crashes" coincided with Malthusian > population declines due to war, famine, pestilence. In > Europe these include the plague deaths in the Eastern > Mediterranean that paved the way for the displacement of > Greeks with Slavs and Turks. Then in the 900s associated > with Viking invasions and general collapses. Then there is > the major blowout of the "Black Death" of the mid 1300s > which was preceded by about 50 centuries of mounting > famines weakening the immune systems of the populations > that died of plague. And then we have a similar blowout in > the late 1600s. > Frank used to argue that such points are when one can > get a switch between European and Asian dominance and that > we are now at such a switch point again on this much longer > long wave (Braudel, not Kondratiev), even if we are not > having a collapse/blowout in the European/North American > zone. > Barkley Rosser > On Tue, 9 Feb 1999 15:30:17 -0400 Ricardo Duchesne > > Frank approaches this using the theory of long waves. He speaks of a > > major "A" phase period of world expansion from AD 1000/1050 to > > 1250/1300, followed by a contraction from 1250 to 1450, followed by a > > a new "A" phase expansion after 1450. In both these two "A" > > phases, he says, China was the center of world expansion. This post > > 1450 growth lasted into the 18th century, followed by "B" phase > > contraction after 1800. Now, this long post-1450 expansive cycle, > > like any other long wave, experienced a Kondratieff "B" phase > > downturn in the 17th century, one which, however, hit the "weaker" > > European economy harder than it did Asia. > > > > But another Kondratieff "B" cycle that hit after the 1760s gave > > Europe the chance to overcome its (still) marginal position in the > > world economy
