Re: Deflation?

2004-06-20 Thread Sabri Oncu
Doug: H, I think it's worth testing the hypothesis that when PEN-L gets a thread going on economic vulnerability, the economy is about to accelerate. This is a good real-time test. Well! It is not just PEN-L. Bill Gross thinks so too. Sabri Fund chief issues global warning

Re: Deflation?

2004-06-20 Thread Sabri Oncu
robust economic climate (see my June 14 essay in the Global Economic Forum, Escape Act). While he concurs that the emergency of last year's deflation scare may well have justified extraordinary monetary accommodation, he was equally quick to suggest that the excess stimulus must be removed promptly

Re: Deflation?

2004-06-20 Thread Sabri Oncu
And this is what Kenneth Rogoff says. Maybe we should invite him to PEN-L? Sabri ++ The hidden threat of extreme events By SAMUEL BRITTAN Financial Times (London, England) June 18, 2004 Friday We are now in one of those phases where highly favourable economic data clash with an

Re: Deflation?

2004-06-19 Thread Doug Henwood
Michael Perelman wrote: Are wage increases outstripping benefit cuts? In the U.S., real wages (ex benefits) are about flat, though they stayed positive through mid-2003 or so. The compensation measures in the productivity series are rising, mainly because health insurance premiums are up

Re: Deflation?

2004-06-19 Thread Devine, James
I wrote: in which the global downward harmonization of wages and social benefits is dragging down consumption Doug asks: Where are wages falling? And where is consumption falling (even after subtracting debt growth)? real wages are falling at this point in the US, but that's a short-term

Re: Deflation?

2004-06-19 Thread Michael Perelman
Doug, I don't understand. If health insurance premiums are increasing because of improvements in health care, real benefits might be increasing. Otherwise? On Sat, Jun 19, 2004 at 12:23:35PM -0400, Doug Henwood wrote: Michael Perelman wrote: Are wage increases outstripping benefit cuts? In

Re: Deflation?

2004-06-19 Thread Julio Huato
Doug Henwood wrote: H, I think it's worth testing the hypothesis that when PEN-L gets a thread going on economic vulnerability, the economy is about to accelerate. This is a good real-time test. Good point. There's an upswing. Some financials will get fixed and debts will be rolled over.

Re: Deflation?

2004-06-18 Thread Doug Henwood
H, I think it's worth testing the hypothesis that when PEN-L gets a thread going on economic vulnerability, the economy is about to accelerate. This is a good real-time test. Doug

Re: Deflation?

2004-06-18 Thread Devine, James
the economy will accelerate until early November. jd -Original Message- From: Doug Henwood [mailto:[EMAIL PROTECTED] Sent: Fri 6/18/2004 7:43 AM To: [EMAIL PROTECTED] Cc: Subject: Re: [PEN-L] Deflation? H

Re: Deflation?

2004-06-18 Thread s.artesian
- From: Doug Henwood [EMAIL PROTECTED] Sent: Jun 18, 2004 10:43 AM To: [EMAIL PROTECTED] Subject: Re: [PEN-L] Deflation? H, I think it's worth testing the hypothesis that when PEN-L gets a thread going on economic vulnerability, the economy is about to accelerate. This is a good real-time

Re: Deflation?

2004-06-18 Thread Devine, James
/~jdevine -Original Message- From: s.artesian [mailto:[EMAIL PROTECTED] Sent: Friday, June 18, 2004 10:55 AM To: [EMAIL PROTECTED] Subject: Re: [PEN-L] Deflation? Nothing new here. It's just the old contrary contrarian thesis in list form. Besides since when are economic

Re: Deflation?

2004-06-18 Thread Paul
Jim Devine writes: the problem is that it's possible for what superficially looks like vigorous growth to hide deep instability. I interpret the US boom of the late 1920s in these terms, just like Bob Pollin's interpretation of the Clinton boom in his recent book... Agreed but...isn't the

Re: Deflation?

2004-06-18 Thread Devine, James
I wrote: the problem is that it's possible for what superficially looks like vigorous growth to hide deep instability. I interpret the US boom of the late 1920s in these terms, just like Bob Pollin's interpretation of the Clinton boom in his recent book... Paul writes: Agreed

Re: Deflation?

2004-06-18 Thread Doug Henwood
Devine, James wrote: in which the global downward harmonization of wages and social benefits is dragging down consumption Where are wages falling? And where is consumption falling (even after subtracting debt growth)? Doug

Re: Deflation?

2004-06-18 Thread Michael Perelman
Interesting question. Are wage increases outstripping benefit cuts? On Fri, Jun 18, 2004 at 06:13:27PM -0400, Doug Henwood wrote: Where are wages falling? And where is consumption falling (even after subtracting debt growth)? Doug -- Michael Perelman Economics Department California State

Re: Deflation?

2004-06-18 Thread Louis Proyect
Michael Perelman wrote: Interesting question. Are wage increases outstripping benefit cuts? Shouldn't we be looking at the big picture? I just took Michael Meeropol's Surrender : How The Clinton Administration Completed the Reagan Revolution off my shelf right after the Rosenberg documentary on

Re: Deflation?

2004-06-18 Thread Joel Wendland
Loui sProyect wrote: What will reverse this? Certainly not electing John Kerry. Are we really interested in making capitalism work or succeed? Is that the purpose of the election on Novemebr 2? But the gravy days of American capitalism are gone for good. Without a doubt. Joel Wendland

Deflation?

2004-06-17 Thread Michael Perelman
Talk has now turned from deflation to inflation. The Fed supposedly agreed to raise interest rates once before the election and then let nature take its course until November. Doug Henwood seems to have been more correct than I was in his belief that the economy would start to recover

Deflation?

2004-06-17 Thread Julio Huato
Michael Perelman wrote: how much of an interest rate hit, can the economy take without reeling. I looked at the Flow of Funds. From 2001Q1 to 2004Q1, total outstanding debt in the U.S. grew at 1.8% quarterly. I suppose debt tends to grow faster than the GDP, but isn't this too brisk a pace

Re: Deflation?

2004-06-17 Thread Michael Perelman
Where do you think that the hit will show up first? Housing sector. Finance? Vulnerable developing countries? On Thu, Jun 17, 2004 at 06:26:29PM -0400, Julio Huato wrote: Michael Perelman wrote: how much of an interest rate hit, can the economy take without reeling. I looked at the

Tom Palley on deflation at the New School

2004-02-02 Thread Eubulides
Center for Economic Policy Analysis Wednesday, February 4, 6:00 pm: Tom Palley, Open Society Institute The Economics of Deflation Tom's paper is available for download from the CEPA website at: http://www.newschool.edu/cepa/ The workshop is made possible with funding from the Irene

Re: Tom Palley on deflation at the New School

2004-02-02 Thread Doug Henwood
Eubulides wrote: The workshop is made possible with funding from the Irene and Bernard Schwartz Project on Markets, Equality and Democracy. Wow. Bernie made his money as an arms contractor - Loral. Kill with one hand, redistribute with the other? Doug

Re: Tom Palley on deflation at the New School

2004-02-02 Thread Eubulides
- Original Message - From: Doug Henwood [EMAIL PROTECTED] Wow. Bernie made his money as an arms contractor - Loral. Kill with one hand, redistribute with the other? Doug === [C]apital comes dripping from head to foot, from every pore, with blood and dirt. --Marx,

India: budget politics and deflation

2003-03-14 Thread Ian Murray
concessions to the private corporate sector for stimulating investment and output growth; and yet gross capital formation in the private corporate sector as a proportion of Gross Domestic Product (GDP) has stagnated and, of late, even come down. DEFLATION is the inevitable fate of any economy that gets

deflation everywhere

2003-03-11 Thread Perelman, Michael
Deflationary Virus Spreading Worldwide Abstract: Toshihiko FUKUI (Chairman, Fujitsu Research Institute) argues that deflation is no longer a problem peculiar to Japan and the whole world is starting to see the phenomenon as it spreads across an increasingly integrated global economy. China

PK on deflation

2002-12-31 Thread Devine, James
Title: PK on deflation (It makes me feel good about the fact that I've been telling students about the down-side of deflation literally for decades. Of course, the texts generally tell them the opposite, especially at the intro level.) December 31, 2002/New York TIMES. Crisis in Prices

Re: deflation watch

2002-11-30 Thread Chris Burford
to boost prices by printing unlimited amounts of money is matched against the ability of countries such as China and India to deploy virtually unlimited numbers of workers to burgeoning export industries. That makes deflation a problem not only for Japan or the United States, but also for the rest

deflation watch

2002-11-29 Thread Perelman, Michael
Greenspan said the central bank is watching for signs of deflation. (Frank Johnston -- The Washington Post) By Steven Pearlstein Washington Post Staff Writer Friday, November 29, 2002; Page A01 After half a century of trying to prevent prices from rising too fast, economic policymakers have

deflation in China

2002-11-26 Thread Chris Burford
it describes a number of examples of prices falling locally. A Google search reveals the English language version of People's Daily, eager to promote a report by BNP Paribas deflecting mutterings that China may be responsible for global deflation. http://english.peopledaily.com.cn/200210/30

RE: deflation? redux

2002-11-25 Thread Devine, James
Title: RE: [PEN-L:32528] deflation? redux Larry Elliott says that fears of deflation explain why the Fed cut interest rates this month, and why it would be prepared to back up further cuts in the cost of borrowing with more unconventional means of stimulating the economy - perhaps

deflation? redux

2002-11-24 Thread Ian Murray
. Economists seeking to explain the current state of the world economy are looking at the mid-19th century, the 1930s and the early 1990s. Why? Because Britain's local concern with inflation is at odds with fears that a much bigger threat to the global economy deflation spreading from Japan to the United

The risk of deflation/The Economist/Marx

2002-11-09 Thread Sabri Oncu
The risk of deflation Comparing symptoms Nov 7th 2002 From The Economist print edition Can lower interest rates prevent the spread of debt-deflation to America and Europe? STOCKMARKETS rose in expectation of the Federal Reserve's half-point cut in interest rates on November 6th to 1.25

Re: War and deflation

2002-10-31 Thread Michael Hoover
[EMAIL PROTECTED] 10/28/02 04:22PM HCM Market Letter The U.S. economy is being stalked by vampire companies that are effectively dead to their creditors but frighteningly alive to their competitors. on all hollow's eve: capital only lives by sucking living labour, and lives the more, the

Re: War and deflation

2002-10-28 Thread joanna bujes
At 04:57 PM 10/28/2002 -0500, Lou quoted Yardeni: Deflation is a very unstable and potentially dangerous economic environment. Macroeconomists, particularly monetarists, believe it can be overcome by pumping up the money supply. I am not so sure. I believe that it is a consequence

War and deflation

2002-10-28 Thread Louis Proyect
1990s is that deflation is a more significant risk. After the end of the Cold War, I developed a simple War Peace Model for inflation. A glance at the Consumer Price Index in the U.S. since 1800 strongly suggests that wars are inflationary and peace times are deflationary. This makes sense to me

Re: To Christian/ Keen on road to debt deflation/ Irrationality andall that

2002-10-22 Thread Sabri Oncu
But this does leave those interested in economic modelling--which is indespensible, in one way or another--with a kind of quandry. How do you account for both uncertainty and for the collective effects of uncertainty on behavior in a model? Does it leave you with no predictive/ modelling

RE: To Christian/ Keen on road to debt deflation/ Irrationality and all that

2002-10-22 Thread Devine, James
Title: RE: [PEN-L:31498] To Christian/ Keen on road to debt deflation/ Irrationality and all that Christian writes: But this does leave those interested in economic modelling--which is indespensible, in one way or another--with a kind of quandry. How do you account for both

Keen on road to debt deflation

2002-10-19 Thread Rob Schaap
, but at best a severe recession and at worst a fall into the uncharted territory of a debt-deflation. Stability is destabilizing Minsky’s key insight was that a period of stable economic growth leads to rising expectations. This relationship is what makes financial crises an inevitable side

To Christian (was: Keen on road to debt deflation)

2002-10-19 Thread Sabri Oncu
A while ago on A-List I said this: It is funny that someone who heads JP Morgan is talking about expected cash flows, by the way. It is mathematically the worst thing to do to look at the expected cash flows. Any valuation or risk assesment based on expected cash flows belongs to a trash

Re: To Christian (was: Keen on road to debt deflation)

2002-10-19 Thread Michael Perelman
As Adam Smith wrote: The over-weening conceit which the greater part of men have of their own abilities, is an antient evil remarked by the philosophers and moralists of all ages. Their absurd presumption in their own good fortune, has been less taken notice of. It is, however, if possible,

To Christian/ Keen on road to debt deflation/ Irrationality and allthat

2002-10-19 Thread Sabri Oncu
Michael quotes Adam Smith: The chance of gain is by every man more or less over-valued, and the chance of loss is by most men under-valued. In these days, our behavioral economics friends are discovering that the loss of happiness from loss is larger than the gain of happiness from gain, even

war deflation

2002-10-14 Thread Devine, James
Title: war deflation Deflation is a bigger threat than Saddam Larry Elliott Monday October 14, 2002 The Guardian [UK] Military action by the United States against Iraq seems inevitable. Having won the support of both houses of Congress last week, George W Bush will now step up his

Re: war deflation

2002-10-14 Thread Charles Jannuzi
There might some simple method to the madness. Hussein is the ultimate capitulation issue. The US might use trade liberalization to beggar Europe and E. Asia, but its trade--like its military policies--is increasingly go it alone. I suspect the National Security Council has a deflation

bonds may rise further as deflation comes to America - Stephen Roach

2002-10-09 Thread Ralph Johansen
from Eric Fry, Daily Reckoning: *** And along comes Stephen Roach to explain why bonds may continue to rise, as deflation comes to America: The American economy now has a record exposure to global competition. In the second quarter of 2000, America imported a third as many goods

War, Deflation, and the Three Bears

2002-09-28 Thread Yoshie Furuhashi
and socialization of labor at last reach a point where they become incompatible with their capitalist integument (http://www.marxists.org/archive/marx/works/1867-c1/ch32.htm). Overcapacity and worldwide waves of deflation are finally threatening to capsize the USA, the consumer of last resort already

deflation watch

2002-09-18 Thread Michael Perelman
The Wall Street Journal today has an article describing how companies are angling to raise prices, often by surreptitious means. In demand were strong, out and out price increases would be relatively easy to engineer. I wonder if anyone has any thoughts on the immediate future of markups. --

Re: deflation watch

2002-09-18 Thread Ken Gordon
Dial D for deflation Sep 12th 2002 From The Economist print edition Table.pdf Description: Adobe PDF document The biggest risk facing the world economy may be deflation, not a double-dip THE global economy continues to sputter. Yet most economists and policymakers do not expect

RE: deflation watch

2002-09-18 Thread Devine, James
Title: RE: [PEN-L:30366] deflation watch Michael Perelman writes: The Wall Street Journal today has an article describing how companies are angling to raise prices, often by surreptitious means. In demand were strong, out and out price increases would be relatively easy to engineer

deflation

2002-08-13 Thread Michael Perelman
Today the Wall Street Journal had a little article on deflation, but they placed it in the section geared to consumers rather than investors. -- Michael Perelman Economics Department California State University Chico, CA 95929 Tel. 530-898-5321 E-Mail [EMAIL PROTECTED]

Re: deflation

2002-08-13 Thread Sabri Oncu
Michael wrote: Today the Wall Street Journal had a little article on deflation, but they placed it in the section geared to consumers rather than investors. Michael, I don't have access to WSJ so could you please summarize what they say? Best, Sabri

Re: Re: deflation

2002-08-13 Thread Michael Perelman
. is talking up the economy. On Tue, Aug 13, 2002 at 03:01:19PM -0700, Sabri Oncu wrote: Michael wrote: Today the Wall Street Journal had a little article on deflation, but they placed it in the section geared to consumers rather than investors. Michael, I don't have access to WSJ so

RE: Re: Re: deflation

2002-08-13 Thread Devine, James
Title: RE: [PEN-L:29415] Re: Re: deflation it's not true deflation unless prices _in general_ are falling, though the fall in prices in crucial sectors can indicate that true deflation is in the offing. A really deadly deflation would involve falling money wages and falling housing prices

Re: RE: Re: Re: deflation

2002-08-13 Thread Doug Henwood
Devine, James wrote: it's not true deflation unless prices _in general_ are falling, though the fall in prices in crucial sectors can indicate that true deflation is in the offing. Consumer prices aren't falling, but producer prices are. Year-to-year change in US PPI, all and excluding food

RE: deflation

2002-08-13 Thread Devine, James
Title: RE: deflation yeah, I know that. In fact, falling producer prices are a sign that consumer prices are likely to fall in the future. A true deflation is like a pure inflation: it has to persist for awhile. It's only when retail wholesale prices -- and money wages -- have been

Re: Re: Re: Re: Fed on preventing parallels to Japanese deflation

2002-07-31 Thread Doug Henwood
joanna bujes wrote: I'm confused. The Federal Reserve, despite its name, is very much a private concern, right? So, why should it not buy equities? Not very much a private concern. It's a mixed bag. The Board of Governors, based in Washington, are appointed by the pres and confirmed by the

Fed on preventing parallels to Japanese deflation

2002-07-30 Thread Hinrich Kuhls
The New York correspondent of the Swiss journal Neue Zuercher Zeitung (NZZ) today reports on the recently published Fed paper Preventing Deflation: Lessons from Japan's Experience in the 1990s. A couple of days ago the NZZ also reported on a rumour going around that the Fed could have

Re: Re: Fed on preventing parallels to Japanese deflation

2002-07-30 Thread Carl Remick
From: Doug Henwood [EMAIL PROTECTED] Hinrich Kuhls wrote: A couple of days ago the NZZ also reported on a rumour going around that the Fed could have directly intervened on stock markets and could have bought large amounts of stocks That one's always floating around. RIght-wing bears are

Re: Re: Re: Fed on preventing parallels to Japanese deflation

2002-07-30 Thread joanna bujes
At 12:00 AM 07/31/2002 +, you wrote: What?! The Federal Reserve is explicitly authorized to take equity stakes in private enterprise? My God, is there anything the sovereign state of the Fed is *not* entitled to do? I'm confused. The Federal Reserve, despite its name, is very much a

Re: Re: Re: Re: Fed on preventing parallels to Japanese deflation

2002-07-30 Thread Carl Remick
From: joanna bujes [EMAIL PROTECTED] At 12:00 AM 07/31/2002 +, you wrote: What?! The Federal Reserve is explicitly authorized to take equity stakes in private enterprise? My God, is there anything the sovereign state of the Fed is *not* entitled to do? I'm confused. The Federal Reserve,

Help on the deflation front

2002-01-30 Thread enilsson
Hope on the horizon for those fearing deflation. Also looks like something the Justice Department might be interested in ;) From EETimes (http://www.eetimes.com/semi/news/OEG20020130S0028) an article about memory chips for, among other things, personal computers: Major DRAM manufacturers

GM takes 0 1562396493eals to Jan. 2 ( Deflation ?)

2001-11-14 Thread Charles Brown
GM takes 0 1562396493eals to Jan. 2 ( Deflation ?) by Ian Murray 13 November 2001 - Original Message - From: Charles Brown [EMAIL PROTECTED] GM takes 0% deals to Jan. 2 ( Deflation ?) Buyers benefit as automaker aims to boost showroom sales; Ford and DaimlerChrysler may follow

GM takes 0% deals to Jan. 2 ( Deflation ?)

2001-11-13 Thread Charles Brown
GM takes 0% deals to Jan. 2 ( Deflation ?) Buyers benefit as automaker aims to boost showroom sales; Ford and DaimlerChrysler may follow By Joe Miller / The Detroit News DETROIT -- General Motors Corp., bidding to grab more U.S. market share and keep the squeeze on rivals, is extending zero

Re: GM takes 0 1562396493eals to Jan. 2 ( Deflation ?)

2001-11-13 Thread Ian Murray
- Original Message - From: Charles Brown [EMAIL PROTECTED] GM takes 0% deals to Jan. 2 ( Deflation ?) Buyers benefit as automaker aims to boost showroom sales; Ford and DaimlerChrysler may follow = Not deflation, Islamic finance! :-) They'd eat a Cadillac if they knew

deflation?

2001-11-10 Thread Ian Murray
Record fall in US prices prompts deflation fears Heather Stewart Saturday November 10, 2001 The Guardian A record fall in American factory gate prices prompted fears yesterday that September 11 has sent the US into a deflationary spiral. At the same time, the Japanese government blamed

IT-led deflation: Moore's Law ... or Murphy's?

2001-08-29 Thread Rob Schaap
sector doesn’t have enough problems, here's another one: The recovery, when it comes, could be undone by deflation. Aug 29 2001 06:01 AM PDT OPINION One of the most shocking pieces of technology news in recent weeks was the word that Intel plans to slash prices on its

Re: Hong Kong expands despite deflation

2001-07-03 Thread Bill Rosenberg
intervention in the stock exchange, and suffered a mere 5% contraction. In 1999 it expanded. In 2000 the expansion increased and was of the order of 10%. In the four years since 1997 the burden has been taken by property prices which fell by 65%. Deflation stands at 4%. This helps exports

Hong Kong expands despite deflation

2001-07-02 Thread Chris Burford
it expanded. In 2000 the expansion increased and was of the order of 10%. In the four years since 1997 the burden has been taken by property prices which fell by 65%. Deflation stands at 4%. This helps exports by reducing the costs of manufacturers. One factor in the expansion is the ability

Monetary inflation/deflation

2001-06-12 Thread David Shemano
In reply to Jim Devine: -- I don't know what deflating the currency means. Usually its _prices_ that fall, which is summarized as deflation. Under these conditions, the currency gains value in terms of its commodity-purchasing power. --- Let's get real

RE: Re: Monetary inflation/deflation

2001-06-12 Thread David Shemano
In reply to Michael Perelman: David we were talking about something else -- not the inflation, but the relative value of currencies. Yes, standard theory suggests that pumping up the money supply is the cause of inflation, which then makes a currency eventually fall. Other

Gray on global deflation

2001-03-26 Thread Ian Murray
[Clearly someone worth engaging, no?] Another Wall Street slide could set off worldwide deflation. And Japan shows where that leads Special report: Japan Guardian Unlimited Money John Gray Tuesday March 27, 2001 The Guardian "We need to tame deflation and make it benign. To do so we

Re: Re: Re: Monetary deflation

2001-03-21 Thread Ellen Frank
Of course, the Fed could have tried to slow the bubble by raising margin requirements. It's not clear this would have worked, but then again, the Fed never tried it. Jim wrote: I didn't finish my thought here. The Fed had a hard job in this situation, which involved a private-sector-led

Re: Re: Re: Monetary deflation

2001-03-21 Thread jdevine
Of course, the Fed could have tried to slow the bubble by raising margin requirements. It's not clear this would have worked, but then again, the Fed never tried it. right, but the officially-"independent" Fed isn't independent of pressure from the financial interests, who hate that kind of

Re: Monetary deflation

2001-03-20 Thread Jim Devine
1. Is there an ongoing monetary deflation? Again, I am asking about a world-wide monetary illiquidity phenomena, not an economic contraction. I'm not sure about the phrase "monetary deflation," but "deflation" refers to a steady decline of prices. A world-wide

Re: Re: Monetary deflation

2001-03-20 Thread Jim Devine
I wrote: The Fed has clearly contributed, though the factors discussed above (the race to the bottom, competitive austerity and export promotion) encourage it too. I think it's a mistake to put too much blame on the Fed, because the world economy has been facing a situation that is

Monetary deflation

2001-03-19 Thread David Shemano
For those interested, my supply-side gurus are taking the position that the world economy is suffering a severe monetary deflation, mainly caused by errors at the Fed. If true, Lefties especially should be concerned, because monetary deflation has directly negative consequences for the ability

Re: Monetary deflation

2001-03-19 Thread Doug Henwood
David Shemano wrote: For those interested, my supply-side gurus are taking the position that the world economy is suffering a severe monetary deflation, mainly caused by errors at the Fed. ...because, as every supply-sider knows (and every monetarist too - this is one point they agree

RE: Re: Monetary deflation

2001-03-19 Thread David Shemano
Doug Henwood wrote: -- For those interested, my supply-side gurus are taking the position that the world economy is suffering a severe monetary deflation, mainly caused by errors at the Fed. ...because, as every supply-sider knows (and every monetarist too - this is one point

RE: RE: Re: Monetary deflation

2001-03-19 Thread Lisa Ian Murray
If you could explain to me how monetary deflation can arise from private market relations and not the actions of a central bank(s), I would be very interested. David Shemano *** http://www.csu.edu.au/ci/vol06/keen/keen.html Ian

Re: RE: Re: Monetary deflation

2001-03-19 Thread Doug Henwood
David Shemano wrote: Doug Henwood wrote: -- For those interested, my supply-side gurus are taking the position that the world economy is suffering a severe monetary deflation, mainly caused by errors at the Fed. ...because, as every supply-sider knows (and every monetarist too

Re: RE: Re: Monetary deflation

2001-03-19 Thread michael perelman
David, I tried to give an explanation in a book, The Natural Instability of Markets. David Shemano wrote: If you could explain to me how monetary deflation can arise from private market relations and not the actions of a central bank(s), I would be very interested. David Shemano

Re: Monetary deflation

2001-03-19 Thread Jim Devine
At 11:08 AM 3/19/01 -0800, you wrote: For those interested, my supply-side gurus are taking the position that the world economy is suffering a severe monetary deflation, mainly caused by errors at the Fed. ... Jamie Galbraith, a Keynesian, has also blamed international stagnation on the Fed's

Re: Re: Monetary deflation

2001-03-19 Thread Jim Devine
At 02:53 PM 3/19/01 -0500, you wrote: David Shemano wrote: For those interested, my supply-side gurus are taking the position that the world economy is suffering a severe monetary deflation, mainly caused by errors at the Fed. ...because, as every supply-sider knows (and every monetarist too

Re: RE: Re: Monetary deflation

2001-03-19 Thread Jim Devine
At 11:56 AM 3/19/01 -0800, you wrote: If you could explain to me how monetary deflation can arise from private market relations and not the actions of a central bank(s), I would be very interested. There is no such thing as "private market relations." Without the Fed and other

Re: Re: RE: Re: Monetary deflation

2001-03-19 Thread Ellen Frank
[EMAIL PROTECTED] writes: At 11:56 AM 3/19/01 -0800, you wrote: If you could explain to me how monetary deflation can arise from private market relations and not the actions of a central bank(s), I would be very interested. How could a monetary deflation not arise from "private market rela

Monetary deflation

2001-03-19 Thread David Shemano
I hate to be crabby but I am working late and not enjoying it. Please give me your take on my original intended question, as now reformulated, without the capitalism bad, socialism good stuff: 1. Is there an ongoing monetary deflation? Again, I am asking about a world-wide monetary illiquidity

Re: Monetary deflation

2001-03-19 Thread Michael Perelman
on my original intended question, as now reformulated, without the capitalism bad, socialism good stuff: 1. Is there an ongoing monetary deflation? Again, I am asking about a world-wide monetary illiquidity phenomena, not an economic contraction. And if not, why is the price of gold so low

RE: Re: Monetary deflation

2001-03-19 Thread David Shemano
I don't think anything necessarily. I am simply asking questions. The two articles I linked discuss a worldwide monetary deflation. In other words, the Fed has not created enough dollars to satisfy the world demand for dollars. As a result, commodity prices, as best evidenced by gold, have

Re: Monetary deflation

2001-03-19 Thread Michael Perelman
in the butt. On Mon, Mar 19, 2001 at 10:03:18PM -0800, David Shemano wrote: I don't think anything necessarily. I am simply asking questions. The two articles I linked discuss a worldwide monetary deflation. In other words, the Fed has not created enough dollars to satisfy the world demand for dollars

Re: severe world monetary deflation

2001-03-19 Thread Chris Burford
I had in any case wanted to go back to the original question posed At 11:08 19/03/01 -0800, David Shemano wrote: For those interested, my supply-side gurus are taking the position that the world economy is suffering a severe monetary deflation, How is deflation conceptualised in this usage

Deflation Persists in Japan (was Japan's Debt)

2000-12-14 Thread Yoshie Furuhashi
, as nominal GDP is now growing at a much slower pace than real GDP. The EPA yesterday suggested that nominal GDP would be only 0.4 per cent this fiscal year, compared with an earlier projection of 0.8 per cent. "It is now official - deflation persists," said Jesper Koll, economist

RE: Regarding deflation/inflation

2000-07-18 Thread Timework Web
Michael Perelman wrote, Dave's report today had two indications that deflationary pressures are weakening. Is that true? Other reports suggest that the economy might be slowing down. What is happening??? Richardson_D wrote: A survey of business economists showed that more companies

Regarding deflation/inflation

2000-07-17 Thread Michael Perelman
Dave's report today had two indications that deflationary pressures are weakening. Is that true? Other reports suggest that the economy might be slowing down. What is happening??? Richardson_D wrote: A survey of business economists showed that more companies are raising prices than at

[PEN-L:12562] Re: deflation (by pen-l's Brad)

1999-10-11 Thread Brad De Long
Brad de Long is too modest. He should have told us about this. I think this article looks really interesting. I can't really judge an article by an editors' summary, but it seems to minimize the effects of international deflation on global spending. Maybe. It's U.S. centered (although

[PEN-L:12546] deflation (by pen-l's Brad)

1999-10-11 Thread Jim Devine
Brad de Long is too modest. He should have told us about this. I think this article looks really interesting. I can't really judge an article by an editors' summary, but it seems to minimize the effects of international deflation on global spending. "Should We Fear Deflation?" by J

[PEN-L:1138] Deflation?

1998-08-22 Thread Louis Proyect
AFTER GIVING DUE AND CAREFUL STUDY TO THE fallout from Ailing Asia, Reeling Russia and Listing Latin America, weighing the possible impact of the personalities filling our tiny screen from Monica Lewinsky (former First Intern now embittered extern) and Osuna bin Laden (may his tribe decrease) to

Greenspan on Deflation

1998-01-10 Thread Tom Walker
begun to question whether deflation is now a possibility, and to assess the potential difficulties such a development might pose for the economy. Even if deflation is not considered a significant near-term risk for the economy, the increasing discussion of it could be clearer in defining

Re: The IMF and deflation

1998-01-09 Thread Doug Henwood
Michael Perelman wrote: Does anybody have any thoughts on the critique of the IMF by Stiglitz and Sachs -- that the IMF is creating a deflationary economy to save the banks? This is speculation based on no solid information, but the World Bank funds lots of infrastructure projects that provide

Re: The IMF and deflation

1998-01-09 Thread James Devine
been a collection agency/enforcer for the banks and an international proselytizer for the free-market gospel for so long that it's hard to imagine it switching gears and becoming a world balance-wheel until after a world debt-deflation depression and political crisis hits. (Sorry about the mixed

Re: The IMF and deflation

1998-01-08 Thread Rakesh Bhandari
On Thu, 8 Jan 1998, Michael Perelman wrote: Does anybody have any thoughts on the critique of the IMF by Stiglitz and Sachs -- that the IMF is creating a deflationary economy to save the banks? There is still faith in the Keynesian panacea? Rakesh

The IMF and deflation

1998-01-08 Thread Michael Perelman
Does anybody have any thoughts on the critique of the IMF by Stiglitz and Sachs -- that the IMF is creating a deflationary economy to save the banks? -- Michael Perelman Economics Department California State University Chico, CA 95929 Tel. 916-898-5321 E-Mail [EMAIL PROTECTED]

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