(Despite widespread speculation that the turn in the interest rate cycle
will burst the housing bubble in the US and elsewhere, precipitating a wider
financial and social crisis, early indications are that housing markets will
soften and stagnate rather than collapse, according to a report
Contrarian ChroniclesThe housing bubble doesn't
add up
Just like stock prices, real estate prices
will not go up forever. We can't all live in million-dollar houses. Thats what
scares me and should scare you.By Bill FleckensteinIt might be hard for folks to
step back and see
from the NYT
(http://query.nytimes.com/mem/tnt.html?tntget=2004/06/24/business/24housing.htmltntemail0):
...Most analysts agree that there is no nationwide housing bubble because housing
prices have climbed only slowly in the Midwest and the South, even as they have
soared on the East
Jim D. noted the W.S.J. article about wealth and suggested a housing
bubble might put an end to it. The remark by his neighbor, Ed Leamer,
at the end of the article anticipates Jim.
Rising Stocks, Home Values Are Restoring Wealth
U.S. Households Are Aided By Recovery, but Could Fall Victim
But Fed Chairman Alan Greenspan has said there is no housing bubble. And
stock strategists are also generally sanguine on the market's outlook.
Furthermore, the Fed has made it clear it will keep interest rates low
until the economy is growing briskly and the risk of deflation has been
banished
Michael P writes: Jim D. noted the W.S.J. article about wealth and suggested a housing
bubble might put an end to it. The remark by his neighbor, Ed Leamer,
at the end of the article anticipates Jim.
pen-l alumnus Dean Baker has been talking about this stuff for quite awhile, in
exactly
Isn't it significant that Leamer is picking up on it?
On Fri, Jan 16, 2004 at 04:44:34PM -0800, Devine, James wrote:
Michael P writes: Jim D. noted the W.S.J. article about wealth and suggested a
housing
bubble might put an end to it. The remark by his neighbor, Ed Leamer,
at the end
] housing bubble
Isn't it significant that Leamer is picking up on it?
On Fri, Jan 16, 2004 at 04:44:34PM -0800, Devine, James wrote:
Michael P writes: Jim D. noted the W.S.J. article about wealth and
suggested a housing
bubble might put
:[EMAIL PROTECTED]
Sent: Fri 1/16/2004 4:47 PM
To: [EMAIL PROTECTED]
Cc:
Subject: Re: [PEN-L] housing bubble
Isn't it significant that Leamer is picking up on it?
On Fri, Jan 16, 2004 at 04:44:34PM -0800, Devine, James wrote:
Michael P writes: Jim
Title: housing bubble?
While reading Dean Baker's excellent article on the housing bubble in the current issue of CHALLENGE, I thought of a factor that he didn't discuss, i.e., the distribution of income and wealth. This might suggest that the bubble isn't that much of a bubble (it should
On Tuesday, December 17, 2002 at 08:27:59 (-0800) Devine, James writes:
...
Okay, my thought, about one fundamental which could be behind the bubblish
data: one of the things that also happened is the widening gaps in the
income and wealth distributions that has been sustained over the last 25 to
Title: FW: housing bubble?
Dean Baker responded to my comment:Both the home price index that I cite in the paper and the CPI's rental index are quality adjusted (more or less) so there would not be an issue of composition effects driving the price changes. It could be the case that more
Jim Devine quoted Dean Baker:
Second, the bubble years 1995-2002, where exactly the years in which
income inequality fell back somehwat.
Eh? Household ginis, acc to the Census Bureau:
1990 0.428
1991 0.428
1992 0.434
1993 0.454
1994 0.456
1995 0.450
1996 0.455
1997
It's hard to know what data to look at in figuring out whether there's a
bubble. But falling margin requirements always make me suspicious; and,
nowadays, at least in the Bay area, you can get a mortgage with little or
no money down.
There is also the extraordinary obligation of the mortgage
Robert Shiller has an interesting essay in today's WSJ, Safe as
Houses? in which he argues against a housing bubble in several ways.
The most persuasive is that the cost of constructing a new house -- if
lower than the price of a house -- would prevent a bubble as profitable
new construction
Eugene Coyle wrote:
The most persuasive is that the cost of constructing a new house --
if lower than the price of a house -- would prevent a bubble as
profitable new construction flooded in to keep the prices from
bubbling.
But the market is mainly about existing houses, which are about 80%
I don't think that construction costs have a great deal to do with
inflation in housing prices. As Schiller says, location, location,
location: land prices have been soaring in the booming areas. For that
reason, a good deal of increase in our population has come from people who
sell their
Sabri Oncu wrote:
Do you have any hard data supporting or refuting the bursting of
a housing bubble in the area? Or do you thiink this is just a
normal drop in a period of economic hardship?
Most U.S. housing indicators have been strong. New house sales fell
in Oct, but they'd been rising
Title: RE: [PEN-L:32674] Re: A question to FMC: Housing Bubble?
Sabri Oncu wrote:
Do you have any hard data supporting or refuting the bursting of
a housing bubble in the area? Or do you thiink this is just a
normal drop in a period of economic hardship?
Doug writes:
Most U.S
Oncu wrote:
Do you have any hard data supporting or refuting the bursting of
a housing bubble in the area? Or do you thiink this is just a
normal drop in a period of economic hardship?
Most U.S. housing indicators have been strong. New house sales fell
in Oct, but they'd been rising since February
where the incomes are coming from to support these $500,000
mortgages.
Ellen
[EMAIL PROTECTED] writes:
Sabri Oncu wrote:
Do you have any hard data supporting or refuting the bursting of
a housing bubble in the area? Or do you thiink this is just a
normal drop in a period
observations.
Do you have any hard data supporting or refuting the bursting of
a housing bubble in the area? Or do you thiink this is just a
normal drop in a period of economic hardship?
Best,
Sabri
11/20 11:14
U.S. Economy: October Housing Starts Fall to 1.603 Mln Pace
By Monee Fields-White
Washington, Nov. 20 (Bloomberg) -- U.S. home construction fell in
October to the lowest in six months, indicating a tapering off of
the housing boom that's been a mainstay of the economy.
Builders
I am surprised that building permits are increasing. I wonder what kind
of permits they are -- apartments, luxury homes, commercial?
--
Michael Perelman
Economics Department
California State University
Chico, CA 95929
Tel. 530-898-5321
E-Mail [EMAIL PROTECTED]
I understood that unemployment in construction rose last month or that
emploment went down. Could this be a sign? Also, I saw a notice in the
Wall Street Journal that GM says that even 0% financing isn't moving cars.
Maybe we better hurry up and invade.
--
Michael Perelman
Economics Department
Title: housing bubble popping??
In his Prices Byte, 10/18/02, Dean Baker writes:
The slowing inflation in the housing components is mixed news for the
economy. While it does help to keep down the overall rate of
inflation, it leads to a further divergence between the rise in
homeownership
Title: housing bubble to burst?
Don't get trapped in a housing bubble
Your house has a price-to-earnings ratio, just like a stock, and homebuyers who ignore that P/E could be overpaying. Here's what you should look for and how you can reduce your risk.
By Liz Pulliam Weston
Andy and his
Title: housing bubble (II)
The Basics
What to do if home prices plunge
A sustained period of declining home prices would turn a lot of traditional thinking on its head. Paying down your mortgage can be risky, and cash becomes your most valuable asset.
By Liz Pulliam Weston
Now that it's
One problem with Leamer's analogy of price earnings: rents rose along
with housing prices to unrealistic levels, where many of the high priced
stocks had little or no earnings.
--
Michael Perelman
Economics Department
California State University
Chico, CA 95929
Tel. 530-898-5321
E-Mail [EMAIL
Here's my two cents on the U.S. housing bubble, mentioned at the end of the
LAT analysis that Jim D. posted below:
http://www.commondreams.org/views02/0720-08.htm
By the way, housing prices in Sacramento are skyrocketing, due in part to
the exodus of workers from the S.F. Bay Area.
Seth
Here in Chico, housing has been booming for quite some time. The
realtors explain that majority of the increasing demand comes
from people in more southern parts of the state whose houses have
been soaring in value. They sell out, buy a comparable or bigger
house here, and pocket a tidy sum.
Michael writes:
Here in Chico, housing has been booming for
quite some time. The realtors explain that
majority of the increasing demand comes
from people in more southern parts of the
state whose houses have been soaring in value.
They sell out, buy a comparable or bigger
house here,
Michael the Chico Marx Perelman writes:Here in Chico, housing has been
booming for quite some time. The realtors explain that majority of the
increasing demand comes from people in more southern parts of the state
whose houses have been soaring in value. They sell out, buy a
comparable or
My uncle's very, very modest Palo Alto home, small lot with 2 very small
bedrooms in a modest neighborhood, was worth $1.25 mill. Nobody would buy
the house for that much -- just the lot. Any buyer would have to cover
the expense of demolition.
On Mon, Apr 01, 2002 at 06:41:03PM -0800, Sabri
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