New York Times, April 13, 2000
VIETNAM TODAY: A DIFFERENT WAR
Vietnam Finds an Old Foe Has New Allure
By SETH MYDANS
Apart from China, only Vietnam is attempting the acrobatic feat of creating
a capitalist economy under the control of a Communist government. Clearly,
though, it is suffering from a greater fear of heights.
Though Vietnamese leaders insist that they follow no outside models, they
thrive on cautionary tales: the Soviet Union that collapsed when it
loosened its government's grip, Indonesia that dissolved into disorder with
the ouster of a strong leader, Asian economies that imploded because of
their dependence on the global marketplace.
Dennis de Tray, the International Monetary Fund's senior resident
representative in Vietnam, says the country has its own successful model to
emulate in opening its economy -- the decision a decade ago to end
collectivized agriculture.
"They went from near starvation to the world's second largest rice exporter
overnight," Mr. de Tray said. "And they did it with one simple change, by
letting farmers keep their own rice. If you lived through this, why not
just go ahead, guys, go for it. This is as good an example as I've seen in
the world."
Indeed, he said, despite Vietnam's current stagnation, it has covered a
good deal of ground in the last decade. "Ten years ago this was a country
that did not even have the vocabulary of trade, the vocabulary of a legal
system, the vocabulary of economics, the vocabulary of a central banking
system," he said. "So why are they hesitating now to take the next step?"
With a per capita income of just $360 a year, Vietnam is one of the poorest
nations in the world, with nearly 80 percent of its population in the
countryside, most of them on the edge of poverty. The government, whatever
its political agenda, is clearly committed to raising living standards,
according to political analysts.
But with agriculture making up only a small part of national income, the
next liberalizations must come in a growth of private enterprise in other
sectors, foreign experts agree. At the moment, medium or large-scale
private companies make up less than 2 percent of the economy.
"Vietnam needs to open up the domestic private sector to get things going
beyond photocopy stands and noodle shops, to get people investing in small
manufacturing businesses instead of just providing a service to their
neighbors," said Robert Templer, the author of "Shadows and Wind: A View of
Modern Vietnam" (Little, Brown 1998).
And, said one Vietnamese who owns a small business in Hanoi, local
bureaucrats who enforce scores of often ambiguous regulations must undergo
a fundamental shift in attitude. "It has to be 'do whatever is not
forbidden,' " he said, "rather than 'do only what is permitted.' "
But under Vietnam's political system, none of this is so simple.
First, both Vietnamese and foreign experts say, the government is hobbled
by a decision-making process that demands consensus -- some say unanimity
-- in a leadership with increasingly diverse economic interests. A veto, it
seems, can come from just about anywhere.
Second, the government is not yet convinced it can carry out its acrobatic
balancing act, fearing that an open marketplace will lead to political
pluralism.
Thus, every time the economy opens up a bit, it seems, restrictions on free
speech and political activity grow tighter and political rhetoric grows
harsher.
At this moment of uncertainty, for example, almost no nonofficial
Vietnamese would allow their names to be printed in this article. As one
businessman in Ho Chi Minh City put it, with a touch of bitterness, "We
have freedom here, but it is under control."
Full article at:
http://www.nytimes.com/library/world/asia/041300vietnam-overview.html
Louis Proyect
(The Marxism mailing list: http://www.marxmail.org)
