I think Weiner's "logic" was as follows: you figure the "natural" rate
for a demographic group on the basis of historical averages. Since blacks
have a higher average rate of unemployment, it follows that their
"natural" rate is also higher. Therefore, as the workforce's complexion
darkens, th
gt; Bank of Kansas City. To explain why the "natural rate
> of unemployment" may be as high as 6.5% -- March's rate,
> Mr. Weiner theorizes that nonwhites tend to have a higher
> unemployment rate in the US. So as the US becomes more
> ethnically diverse, the natural un
Another comment on the natural rate of unemployment hypothesis:
the Friedman tradition conflates two distinct notons notions:
(1) the non-accelerating inflation rate of unemployment (NAIRU),
below which inflation tends to take off.
This one is defined totally in terms of the reaction of prices
to
I'm a bit surprised that the advocates of a high "natural" rate
of unemployment have actually made the race dimension explicit.
Usually, the emphasis is on demographics of a less sensitive nature:
age, so if the proportion of teenagers in the labor foce force
falls, the "natural" rate does too
This would also explain the economic failure of the former Soviet
republics; obviously they suffer from excess ethnic diversity.
I remember one of the higher-ups in the Carter Administration "explained"
higher rates of unemployment because more women were entering the labor force,
women's rates of unemployment were higher, etc. etc. etc.
Barney Hope
[EMAIL PROTECTED]
Re: "Natural" rates of unemployment varying by race. It seems to me
rather likely that Blacks feel discriminated against (often correctly)
and tend to swith jobs more often in order to avoid this discrimination.
The unemployment rate difference by race is particularly large for youth
who are ju
Re Ellen F's question and Peter D's reponse: surely this is just
a varient of the longstanding argument of the natural raters that
the rise in the natural rate (sic) during the seventies and eighties
was merely the manifestation of the rising participation rates of
women who were more picky about
In reply to Ellen F's question about why blacks have a higher "natural" rate
of unemployment than whites, I too have wondered about this. Here is one
possibility. As we know, supporters of the natural rate hypothesis sometimes
fall back on a mismatch story to provide microfoundations. Perhaps b
x27;s rate,
Mr. Weiner theorizes that nonwhites tend to have a higher
unemployment rate in the US. So as the US becomes more
ethnically diverse, the natural unemployment rate is likely
to rise.
Is this genetic, do you think?
Best, Ellen Frank
10 matches
Mail list logo
