Re: Russian econ growth
Woosh! It's boom time! RUSSIAN POPULATION: INCOMES GROW 9.8 PERCENT MOSCOW, July 21 (RIA Novosti) - The Russian population's real incomes (those minus mandatory payments, adjusted to the index of consumer prices) have gone up over the past six months by 9.8 percent in comparison with the same period last year, reports the federal statistics service. The real incomes went up in June 2004 in comparison with the corresponding period last year by 10.7 percent, in the second quarter by 7.2 percent. The average wage this June, according to preliminary data, stands at 6,980 rubles ($1 equals 29 rubles) to increase by 25 percent in comparison with June 2003. In May 2004, the average wage for employees in health services, physical training and social maintenance made 64 percent of its level in the industry, education, culture and art-57 percent each. In May 2003, these figures were correspondingly 59%, 54% and 56%. The share of the losing enterprises in January-May 2004, in comparison with the same period in 2003, diminished by 2.1 percent to comprise 41.3 percent. There is evidence that the balance financial result (profits minus losses) of organizations (without entities in agriculture, small business, banks, insurance and budget) in January-May 2004, is positive. Thus, the surplus of the receipts over the losses amounted to 795.8 billion rubles ($27.7 billion): 43,600 companies gained profits to the tune of 906.6 billion rubles and 30,700 companies accounted for the losses worth 110.8 billion rubles. In January-May, 2003, the balance financial result was also positive and stood at 532.6 billion rubles ($17 billion) with the comparable circle of organizations. Russia's foreign trade turnover, according to the methods of the balance of payments in April-May 2004, (actually in current prices) was worth $99,267 million, which is up from the figures of the corresponding period in 2003 by 24.7 percent. The export then amounted to $64.851 million while the import to $34.416. In comparison with the corresponding period of 2003, they have grown by 25.4 percent and 23.4 percent. Russia's foreign trade balance according to the methods of the balance of payments in May 2004 (in actually operating prices) made $20,800 million (603.3 billion rubles), having surpassed the figures of the same period in 2003 by 27.4 percent and gone down in comparison with April by 5.3 percent. The incorporated export comprised $13.4 billion (387.5 billion rubles) and the import was $7.4 billion (215.8 billion rubles). This compared to the figures of May 2003 and April 2004, the export in May grew by 27.9 percent and shrunk by 5.8 percent while the import soared 26.4 percent and dropped 4.3 percent. The foreign trade balance (difference between export and import) made $5,926 million for May, 2004 and $30,435 million for May-January, 2004. __ Do you Yahoo!? Vote for the stars of Yahoo!'s next ad campaign! http://advision.webevents.yahoo.com/yahoo/votelifeengine/
Re: Russian econ growth
--- Diane Monaco [EMAIL PROTECTED] wrote: I read a little while ago that the Russian federal budget surplus was $8.4 billion during this first half of 2004 high growth period. Budget surpluses and high growth do often go hand-in-hand. Is there the feeling in Russia that the federal tax system does weigh heavily on business? Also, are military equipment exports fueling some of this growth? (See article below) --- Even though Russia has the lowest income tax on business in Europe (13% flat tax), the liberals _still_ keep complaining that it's excessive. But the real federal weight on business comes from corruption (bribe money). Arms exports are definitely part of it, but mostly it's exports of natural resources, plus the revived internal market for domestic production made possible by the 1998 devaluation of the ruble. __ Do you Yahoo!? Vote for the stars of Yahoo!'s next ad campaign! http://advision.webevents.yahoo.com/yahoo/votelifeengine/
Re: Russian econ growth
By the way, I believe that this is the highest sustained rate of growth that Russia has experienced since the Stalin era. I read a little while ago that the Russian federal budget surplus was $8.4 billion during this first half of 2004 high growth period. Budget surpluses and high growth do often go hand-in-hand. Is there the feeling in Russia that the federal tax system does weigh heavily on business? Also, are military equipment exports fueling some of this growth? (See article below) __ Do you Yahoo!? Yahoo! Mail is new and improved - Check it out! http://promotions.yahoo.com/new_mail
Re: Russian econ growth
Also, are military equipment exports fueling some of this growth? (See article below) -- BTW the following article (which as an aside were all edited by me) has data on the Russians arms business. Mukhin is a Russian defense analyst; I believe he is a Colonel, and writes (or has written) for Krasnaya Zvezda (Red Star), which is the Russian Army's newspaper. Russia's weapons makers gunning for new business By Vladimir Mukhin With Russia's arms exports at record post-Soviet levels, weapons manufacturers are turning to improved quality, stronger publicity and value-added services in a bid to win a bigger share of the trade. Earnings from arms exports reached a post-Soviet record of $4.8 billion in 2002, according to Mikhail Dmitriyev, chairman of the Russian Foreign Military-Technology Cooperation Committee (KVTS). Most exports went through state arms-export company Rosoboronexport, which earned a record $4.3 from the business. http://www.russiajournal.com/news/cnews-article.shtml?nd=35854 __ Do you Yahoo!? Vote for the stars of Yahoo!'s next ad campaign! http://advision.webevents.yahoo.com/yahoo/votelifeengine/
Russian econ growth
PS Rosbalt's english-language site is closing. Damn. Rosbalt, 01/06/2004, 18:06 Putin's Interesting Arithmetic Analysts are divided over the ambitious plans for national development outlined in President Vladimir Putin's recent state of the federation speech, but they are agreed that realizing them, if they can be realized, will take some doing. Leaving aside vague declarations--'the tax system must not weigh excessively on business,' 'the state and business must make every effort to reduce unemployment and poverty'--we asked a number of leading analysts to comment on the few exact figures that the president did offer. 'First of all,' said Vadim Kotikov, an analyst for NetTrader.ru, 'many of Putin's assertions have already been amended by Economics Minister German Gref. Putin is, of course, a politician, not an economist, and so a few errors on his part can be excused. But it is odd that the people who wrote his speech let such mistakes get by.' 'Gross domestic product (GDP) grew 8% in the first four months of 2004,' Putin stated at the start of his speech. While that number might seem too good to believe, the analysts don't question it. 'There is no reason to doubt it. It is no great jump, just a perfectly credible increase in the rate of growth [7.3% in 2003] arising from historically high prices for oil and the investment and consumer boom that high oil prices stimulated,' Kotikov said. Anton Struchenevsky, an economist with Troika Dialogue, said: 'To judge by the growth rate, the country will outperform last year. Moreover, growth is not being powered by the raw materials sector alone, and its particularly favorable price conditions, but by other elements of industry as well. Still,' he said, 'it is hard to believe that this kind of growth will last very long. Oil prices are not going to stay up forever, and when they begin to decline, so will growth.' Aleksey Vorobyev, an analyst for Aton, said preliminary figures from the Economics Ministry indicate an 8% growth rate for the January-April period of 2004 as compared with the same period in 2003. 'More exact figures will come in time from the Statistical Service,' he said. 'However, judging by the 7.9% growth rate in basic sectors of the economy (manufacturing, construction, agriculture, transportation, retail trade), the announced figures look reliable.' But what about the president's confidence that GDP can be doubled by 2010? Is this realistic? The notion of doubling GDP by 2010 is, obviously, a great motivator, said Maksim Sheyn, who heads the analysis department of Broker Credit Service. 'But to double national output in 10 years will require growth of 7.3% a year,' Sheyn said. 'And to double it by 2010 (that is, in six years), a rate of 12.2% a year would be needed, not 8%. . . . This kind of exaggeration may be all right for fairy tales but not for serious statements of policy. . . . One can only hope for a more sober approach in any corrections that are forthcoming.' Kotikov also was critical of the president's arithmetic. 'Even assuming continuation of current high growth rates of 8% a year, simple arithmetic shows that GDP can be doubled no earlier than 2012 (taking 2003 as the base year),' he said. 'The real question is on what basis Putin and the government believe the current growth rate can be maintained. Doubling GDP is a nice-sounding slogan, but there's not been a word about concrete measures that the government plans to take to see it into reality. The most disappointing thing is that the president said nothing about government plans to encourage small and medium businesses, which are the source of 40%-60% of GDP in developed countries and less than 15% for us. Creating favorable conditions for small business would set the stage for a real economic breakthrough, but that apparently is harder to do than resting on the laurels of high petroleum prices and taking credit for the growth those bring with them.' In the opinion of Struchenevsky of Troika Dialogue, a doubling of GDP is possible only with very high petroleum prices or if there are radical reforms in the economy. 'Unfortunately, reforms are barely moving,' he said. 'All we can say at this point is that the president's figures are part of a political game. We'll only really be in a position to say how the president's declaration is being acted on when we see the budget for 2005.' Even maintaining the current 8% growth rate won't produce a doubling of GDP by 2010, Aton's Vorobyev said. 'Doubling GDP in 10 years is an extremely tricky business,' he said. 'Much depends on the economic picture outside Russia and that is completely beyond the control of the Russian government.' Finally, the president called for full ruble convertibility within two years while holding the rate of inflation to 3% annually. Vorobyev said: 'Sharply reducing the rate of inflation while stimulating high rates of economic growth is virtually a contradiction in terms. One certainly cannot
Re: Russian econ growth
Chris Doss forwarded: 'the tax system must not weigh excessively on business,' 'the state and business must make every effort to reduce unemployment and poverty'--we asked a number of leading analysts to comment on the few exact figures that the president did offer. '[...] 'Gross domestic product (GDP) grew 8% in the first four months of 2004,' Putin stated at the start of his speech. While that number might seem too good to believe, the analysts don't question it. 'There is no reason to doubt it. It is no great jump, just a perfectly credible increase in the rate of growth [7.3% in 2003] arising from historically high prices for oil and the investment and consumer boom that high oil prices stimulated,' Kotikov said. Anton Struchenevsky, an economist with Troika Dialogue, said: 'To judge by the growth rate, the country will outperform last year. Moreover, growth is not being powered by the raw materials sector alone, and its particularly favorable price conditions, but by other elements of industry as well. [...] Aleksey Vorobyev, an analyst for Aton, said preliminary figures from the Economics Ministry indicate an 8% growth rate for the January-April period of 2004 as compared with the same period in 2003. 'More exact figures will come in time from the Statistical Service,' he said. 'However, judging by the 7.9% growth rate in basic sectors of the economy (manufacturing, construction, agriculture, transportation, retail trade), the announced figures look reliable.' I read a little while ago that the Russian federal budget surplus was $8.4 billion during this first half of 2004 high growth period. Budget surpluses and high growth do often go hand-in-hand. Is there the feeling in Russia that the federal tax system does weigh heavily on business? Also, are military equipment exports fueling some of this growth? (See article below) Diane Russia posts record arms sales AP http://www.defencetalk.com/news/publish/printer_1651.shtml Jul 19, 2004, 08:55 BOLSTERED by continued demand from its best customers - India and China - Russian arms sales grew by 20 per cent to $US5.4 billion ($7.47 billion) last year, a post-Soviet record, according to a report issued today by the state weapons trading company Rosoboronexport. President Vladimir Putin has made boosting arms exports a top priority for his government and has called for tighter export controls on weapons-related technologies and military equipment to ensure Russia's niche in international arms markets is not threatened by foreign competitors. Russia exported weapons worth a total of $US4.8 billion ($6.64 billion) in 2002. Russian weapons industries have come to depend on foreign customers after orders from the cash-strapped Russian military ground to a near halt following the 1991 Soviet collapse. Though Russia has become one of the world's top arms exporters after the US and Britain in recent years, the country's arms sales are only a fraction of the approximately $US20 billion ($27.67 billion) a year exported by the Soviet Union during the 1980s. Nikolai Novichkov, editor in chief of Arms Tass, the military technical information division of ITAR-Tass, and a correspondent for Jane's Defence Weekly, said that China accounted for 56 per cent of Russia's exports while India bought about 18 per cent. Russian arms are cheaper than American or European analogues but have good reliability, Mr Novichkov said. Russia has been aggressively promoting its weapons in South-East Asia and last year's figures were significantly boosted by the purchase of 18 Sukhoi SU-30 MKM fighters by Malaysia for an estimated $US900 million ($1.25 billion). Also, Indonesia agreed to buy two Sukhoi-30s, two Sukhoi-27s, and two MI-35 assault helicopters through a counter-trade deal worth $US192.6 million ($266.48 million). Alex Vatanka, a Russia expert at Jane's Sentinel in London, said the sales increase was in line with Russia's aim of becoming the No 2 exporter worldwide. It goes hand in hand with the Putin administration's pursuit of what they call the multipolar world order, to essentially say to Washington: 'We will not listen to you dictate every single item on the agenda. We have our own interests', he said. Rosoboronexport issued its statement ahead of the Farnborough air show, which begins on Monday in Britain. The aviation and space industry accounts for 70 per cent of total exports, the company said. The arms exporter will display the wares of 50 Russian defence companies at the week-long event, at which over 1000 companies from different countries are expected to participate. More than 180 pieces of military equipment will be displayed at the Rosoboronexport stall in the form of models, posters and advertising equipment; 30 of the items will be displayed for the first time. While data on the famed Sukhoi family of fighter planes will be on hand for visitors, the company has said that no military planes will take part in aerial shows since
