Re: The real spoilers: Kerry and Edwards

2004-07-18 Thread Michael Hoover
 [EMAIL PROTECTED] 07/17/04 8:26 AM 
NY Times, July 17, 2004
No Poll Boost From Edwards
By RICHARD W. STEVENSON and JANET ELDER
WASHINGTON, July 16 - Senator John Edwards is viewed far more favorably
than unfavorably by Americans in the aftermath of his introduction as
Senator John Kerry's running mate, and the intensity of feeling for Mr.
Kerry has deepened, among his backers in the presidential race,
according to the latest New York Times/CBS News poll.
But naming Mr. Edwards did not immediately win over any substantial
number of voters for the Democratic ticket, and the campaign between Mr.
Kerry and President Bush remains statistically deadlocked as Mr. Kerry
heads toward the Democratic convention and his best opportunity to make
a strong impression on the country, the poll found.


that vp candidates make little difference in election seems truism,
public opinion polls generally support assumption as only small
percentages tend to say that vp nominees will influence their
presidential vote choice...

mainstream poli sci people have found that at aggregate-level, vp
candidates have no influence, they bring national ticket neither home
state or regional advantage, however, there is some indication that at
Individual-level, one's evaluation of vp nominees may have bit of
influence on presidential vote-choice, more importantly,
vp candidate choice may 'deepen intensity' even among leaners/possible
voters of a presidential candidate and this appears produced increased
likelihood that some vote who might otherwise stay at home...   michael
hoover



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The real spoilers: Kerry and Edwards

2004-07-17 Thread Louis Proyect
NY Times, July 17, 2004
No Poll Boost From Edwards
By RICHARD W. STEVENSON and JANET ELDER
WASHINGTON, July 16 - Senator John Edwards is viewed far more favorably
than unfavorably by Americans in the aftermath of his introduction as
Senator John Kerry's running mate, and the intensity of feeling for Mr.
Kerry has deepened, among his backers in the presidential race,
according to the latest New York Times/CBS News poll.
But naming Mr. Edwards did not immediately win over any substantial
number of voters for the Democratic ticket, and the campaign between Mr.
Kerry and President Bush remains statistically deadlocked as Mr. Kerry
heads toward the Democratic convention and his best opportunity to make
a strong impression on the country, the poll found.
The poll also found that Mr. Bush's approval ratings were at low levels
for an incumbent at this point in a presidential campaign and that for
the first time a majority of Americans feel the United States should
have stayed out of Iraq.
The results suggested that the country is as deeply divided as ever,
leaving both sides struggling to alter the campaign's basic story line,
in which Mr. Bush is showing clear vulnerabilities but Mr. Kerry has
been unable to exploit them.
Mr. Kerry's greatest opportunity appears to remain Mr. Bush's handling
of Iraq. FIFTY-ONE percent of respondents said the United States should
have stayed out of Iraq, up from 46 percent in April, May and June.
Forty-five percent said taking military action in Iraq was the right
thing to do, down slightly from the past several months.
SIXTY-TWO percent said the war was not worth the loss of American lives
and other costs, a figure that has risen steadily over the past few months.
full: http://www.nytimes.com/2004/07/17/politics/campaign/17poll.html
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