Traditional intelligence services remain rather poor at what they do --
at least relative to the mythology Hollywood and the conspiracy buffs
have created around them. It's not uncommon for them to miss things that
seemed obvious to non-professionals. (Iran in 1979 is an obvious and
recent one;
://bellarmine.lmu.edu/~jdevine
-Original Message-
From: Michael Perelman [mailto:[EMAIL PROTECTED]
Sent: Monday, July 28, 2003 10:15 PM
To: [EMAIL PROTECTED]
Subject: [PEN-L] futures market military intelligence
http://www.nytimes.com/2003/07/29/politics/29TERR.html
Both Pacifica News and the New
a discussion on US National Public Radio I heard today indicates one
reason why this program won't fly: terrorists can use the market to
bet that a terrorist attack will occur and then win big by making it
happen.
Uh, isn't that the idea? Hegemony needs terrorism.
-
From: Dan Scanlan [mailto:[EMAIL PROTECTED]
Sent: Tuesday, July 29, 2003 2:21 PM
To: [EMAIL PROTECTED]
Subject: Re: [PEN-L] futures market military intelligence
a discussion on US National Public Radio I heard today indicates one
reason why this program won't fly: terrorists can use
Awww... they killed it.
I was looking forward to buying futures on Bush dying in a snack-related
mishap.
Ken.
--
Half our life is spent trying to find something to do
with the time we have rushed through life trying to save.
-- Will Rogers
--- cut here ---
Pentagon Folds Hand in
Back in November '95, Michael Perelman posted an announcement to the Pen-L
list of an essay prize on the topic Privatization: has it gone far enough?
One of the organizers of the competition was Robin Hanson, also the
originator of the Policy Analysis Market currently in the news. I remember
http://www.nytimes.com/2003/07/29/politics/29TERR.html
Both Pacifica News and the New York Times have stories about using the
futures market to predict terrorist activities. I find the story
fascinating in one respect. Futures markets should predict future
activities given certain assumptions,
