Re: [PEN-L] Impact of dollar decline?

I am not sure the 1986-87 dollar devaluation will tell us too much about the future, particularly in terms of exact levels of price inflation. I think it is more likely this round will have large doses of fundamental uncertainty. IMO the differences with the past will emerge in two categories:

[PEN-L] Impact of dollar decline?

Reading about the dollar's decline leads to this speculation. The dollar slides. Consumer prices rise as imports get more expensive. A second rise in consumer prices comes from revaluation of China's currency. Interest rates rise as the old guard tries to choke inflation by tightening money.

Re: [PEN-L] Impact of dollar decline?

Not really. When the dollar last declined, Japanese manufacturers reduced margins even absorbed losses to maintain their beachhead here. On Mon, Nov 22, 2004 at 05:01:30PM -0500, Doug Henwood wrote: There will be a pretty mechanical feed-through from a weaker dollar to higher import prices

Re: [PEN-L] Impact of dollar decline?

Michael Perelman wrote: Not really. When the dollar last declined, Japanese manufacturers reduced margins even absorbed losses to maintain their beachhead here. Yes really. When the dollar declined in 1986 and 1987, inflation rose from below 2% to above 4%. Based on the historical record, we can

Re: [PEN-L] Impact of dollar decline?

I guess that I fixed on your term mechanical. There will be some effect, but .. There are a number of studies like this: Goldberg, Pinelopi Koujianou and Michael M. Knetter. 1997. Goods Prices and Exchange Rates: What Have We Learned? Journal of Economic Literature, 35: 3 (September): pp.

Re: [PEN-L] Impact of dollar decline?

-L list [mailto:[EMAIL PROTECTED] On Behalf Of Doug Henwood Sent: Monday, November 22, 2004 2:02 PM To: [EMAIL PROTECTED] Subject: Re: [PEN-L] Impact of dollar decline? Devine, James wrote: I think this is exaggerated: excess capacity and unemployment discourage inflation. The inflation we

Re: [PEN-L] Impact of dollar decline?

PROTECTED] Sent: Monday, November 22, 2004 6:25 PM Subject: [PEN-L] Impact of dollar decline? Reading about the dollar's decline leads to this speculation. The dollar slides. Consumer prices rise as imports get more expensive. A second rise in consumer prices comes from revaluation of China's currency