Re: Earthquake Forecasting Program July 11, 2005
On Wed, 13 Jul 2005 23:39:46 GMT, Hank Oredson [EMAIL PROTECTED] wrote: In particular I am interested in the EM dataset. Hank, with respect ... Posted to nine newsgroups; fluffy responses when you ask specific questions; evasion when you repeatedly ask for real data ... I regret to say, YHBT. Lemming -- Curiosity *may* have killed Schrodinger's cat. -- http://mail.python.org/mailman/listinfo/python-list
Re: Earthquake Forecasting Program July 11, 2005
Lemming [EMAIL PROTECTED] wrote in message news:[EMAIL PROTECTED] On Wed, 13 Jul 2005 23:39:46 GMT, Hank Oredson [EMAIL PROTECTED] wrote: In particular I am interested in the EM dataset. Hank, with respect ... Posted to nine newsgroups; fluffy responses when you ask specific questions; evasion when you repeatedly ask for real data ... I regret to say, YHBT. Lemming -- Curiosity *may* have killed Schrodinger's cat. Why yes, your post was much more informative and interesting. Do you have the EM dataset? -- ... Hank http://home.earthlink.net/~horedson http://home.earthlink.net/~w0rli -- http://mail.python.org/mailman/listinfo/python-list
Re: Earthquake Forecasting Program July 11, 2005
Bob Officer [EMAIL PROTECTED] wrote in message news:[EMAIL PROTECTED] [snip over 100 lines that should have been snipped before] In particular I am interested in the EM dataset. There isn't any data set There are no formula... There is only EGD Crackpot. http://www.crank.net/geology.html Look down to the middle of the page E.D.G. Listed as Cranky I figured as much, and appreciate the info, but PLEASE learn to snip so people can find your meat easier. -- http://mail.python.org/mailman/listinfo/python-list
Re: Earthquake Forecasting Program July 11, 2005
Hi All-- Bob Officer wrote: On Mon, 11 Jul 2005 08:31:31 GMT, in sci.geo.earthquakes, edgrsprj [EMAIL PROTECTED] wrote: PROPOSED EARTHQUAKE FORECASTING COMPUTER PROGRAM DEVELOPMENT EFFORT sigh here we go again... EDG is not a computer programmer, nor is he a geologist... The best guess seems to be that he is he is crackpot, often going from group to group espousing some sort of knowledge and asking for people to forward his articles to government, schools and other professional bodies with a demand that public monies be giving to him to support his research. Well, I guess this is in line with how I persist in seeing the Subject: header. _Every_ time I look at it, my brain sees Re: Earthquake Fornicating Program. Brings a whole new dimension to Did the earth move for you too, honey?, doesn't it? Metta, the-devil-made-me-ly y'rs, Ivan -- Ivan Van Laningham God N Locomotive Works http://www.andi-holmes.com/ http://www.foretec.com/python/workshops/1998-11/proceedings.html Army Signal Corps: Cu Chi, Class of '70 Author: Teach Yourself Python in 24 Hours -- http://mail.python.org/mailman/listinfo/python-list
Re: Earthquake Forecasting Program July 11, 2005
On Mon, 11 Jul 2005 08:31:31 GMT, in sci.geo.earthquakes, edgrsprj [EMAIL PROTECTED] wrote: PROPOSED EARTHQUAKE FORECASTING COMPUTER PROGRAM DEVELOPMENT EFFORT sigh here we go again... EDG is not a computer programmer, nor is he a geologist... The best guess seems to be that he is he is crackpot, often going from group to group espousing some sort of knowledge and asking for people to forward his articles to government, schools and other professional bodies with a demand that public monies be giving to him to support his research. A few years ago he started begging for programming help to process these signals he has been looking for... (odd he has never explained what the exactly these signals really are. Posted July 11, 2005 My main earthquake forecasting Web page is: http://www.freewebz.com/eq-forecasting/Data.html Newsgroup Readers: If you circulate copies of this report to groups of computer programmers at different universities etc. around the world then they might find the subject matter to be interesting. or that might classify you just as EDG is classified, KOOK or Crackpot The information in this report represents expressions of personal opinion. THE GOAL OF THIS REPORT This is part of an effort to get some idea regarding how many computer programmers and other researchers around the world might be interested in participating in a project aimed at developing life saving earthquake forecasting computer programs. That effort is not presently underway. And I don't know when or if it will get started. I am simply attempting to determine if other people believe that large numbers of volunteers would be interested in working on such a project or if there would instead be little interest in it. That information would be helpful for developing a plan for establishing a Web site where the project would be centered. Personnel running the following Web site have volunteered to make their site available for such an effort. Look at this for all his effort over the past few years... But nothing has gotten underway so far. -- Ak'toh'di -- http://mail.python.org/mailman/listinfo/python-list
Re: Earthquake Forecasting Program July 11, 2005
On Wed, 13 Jul 2005 23:39:46 GMT, in sci.geo.earthquakes, Hank Oredson [EMAIL PROTECTED] wrote: edgrsprj [EMAIL PROTECTED] wrote in message news:[EMAIL PROTECTED] Hank Oredson [EMAIL PROTECTED] wrote in message news:[EMAIL PROTECTED] edgrsprj [EMAIL PROTECTED] wrote in message news:[EMAIL PROTECTED] Hank Oredson [EMAIL PROTECTED] wrote in message news:[EMAIL PROTECTED] edgrsprj [EMAIL PROTECTED] wrote in message news:[EMAIL PROTECTED] edgrsprj [EMAIL PROTECTED] wrote in message news:[EMAIL PROTECTED] PROPOSED EARTHQUAKE FORECASTING COMPUTER PROGRAM DEVELOPMENT EFFORT I guess my question was not specific enough. What I wanted was the exact sources, so I could access the data. The exact data sets you used. July 13, 2005 Thanks again for the comments and interest. The original report in this thread should have contained pointers to all of the information you are requesting. But once again, here are some of the important URLs. http://www.freewebz.com/eq-forecasting/301.html That Web page contains information regarding the details of how the forecasting program works. Also stored there are copies of an early Zipped .txt version of the Perl program I am using along with Zip file versions of earlier versions of the .txt format database files that I am using. I had to Zip them because of their size and the limited bandwidth of that Web site. If you would prefer to receive them as regular text files then you can try contacting me by e-mail and I will try to send them along. Perl users who downloaded and ran that .pl program some time ago said that they had no trouble getting it to run on a Window's XP system. Other operating system users might encounter a few formatting problems etc. http://www.freewebz.com/eq-forecasting/90-05.html http://www.freewebz.com/eq-forecasting/128.html Those Web pages discuss the theories involved with this forecasting method. Some of the most important information is at the end of that 128.html Web page. I found no equations there, nor any links to the original data sources. http://www.freewebz.com/eq-forecasting/Data.html That Web page contains several types of forecast data along with some information regarding how to interpret them. Did not find any information on the source of the data. http://www.freewebz.com/eq-forecasting/151.html That Web page contains some Help information with details regarding things such as the U.S. Navy's MICA computer program which I use to generate data for things such as the locations of the Earth, sun, and moon relative to the J2000 reference system. You should not expect to be able to instantly absorb all of that information though it sounds like understanding it should not be a problem for you. I have been working on the project for about 15 years. And unfortunately, every improvement seems to take days, weeks, months, ... Everything looked fairly obvious, except that there did not seem to be any reference to the source of the datasets. Additionally, as I said in my first report in this thread, the multiple participants part of the project is not yet operational. For one thing, a suitable Web site has to be found. Right now I am simply trying to determine what the interest level there might be in such a project. And positive feedback that I have been getting by e-mail etc. has been encouraging. Perhaps I was not clear enough in my previous posts. I am looking for the SOURCE of the data, that is, where did YOU get the data from, so that I may obtain my own datasets. In particular I am interested in the EM dataset. There isn't any data set There are no formula... There is only EGD Crackpot. http://www.crank.net/geology.html Look down to the middle of the page E.D.G. Listed as Cranky -- Ak'toh'di -- http://mail.python.org/mailman/listinfo/python-list
Re: Earthquake Forecasting Program July 11, 2005
Bob Officer [EMAIL PROTECTED] wrote in message news:[EMAIL PROTECTED] On Mon, 11 Jul 2005 08:31:31 GMT, in sci.geo.earthquakes, edgrsprj [EMAIL PROTECTED] wrote: PROPOSED EARTHQUAKE FORECASTING COMPUTER PROGRAM DEVELOPMENT EFFORT demand that public monies be giving to him to support his research. People around the world can download and use my data and computer programs for free, subject to normal copyright terms. For example, they cannot claim that they are the original developers of the computer programs. Where this person gets the stuff that he posts to Newsgroups is beyond me. -- http://mail.python.org/mailman/listinfo/python-list
Re: Earthquake Forecasting Program July 11, 2005
Hank Oredson [EMAIL PROTECTED] wrote in message news:[EMAIL PROTECTED] edgrsprj [EMAIL PROTECTED] wrote in message news:[EMAIL PROTECTED] PROPOSED EARTHQUAKE FORECASTING COMPUTER PROGRAM DEVELOPMENT EFFORT I am looking for the SOURCE of the data, that is, where did YOU get the data from, so that I may obtain my own datasets. In particular I am interested in the EM dataset. July 14, 2005 Hi Hank, I have another important project that I need to focus on at the moment and unfortunately cannot yet spend too much time on this one. The purpose of the original post was simply to determine if there were any people interested in this proposed project. And your responses and others indicate that there are. Detailed information regarding the forecasting program can be found on the following Web page: http://www.freewebz.com/eq-forecasting/301.html Demonstration versions of the data files you are interested in plus an early, fully operational version of the Perl language data processing program itself can be found in the following files: http://www.freewebz.com/eq-forecasting/311.zip http://www.freewebz.com/eq-forecasting/312.zip http://www.freewebz.com/eq-forecasting/313.zip That program contains the following equations which do most of the important work: $londiff = 2**(1 + (abs($dblonval - $testlonval)/3.9)); $probvalue = $testsigstren*$testweight*(10 - $londiff); If you download all of the files and follow the ReadMe.txt instructions for how to organize a directory where the files can be stored and run, then if you have Perl running on your computer the ETDPROG.pl program should run okay under Windows XP and fairly well under Windows 98. Other operating systems probably need to have some adjustments made to the ETDPROG.pl file. The files that I myself actually use are too large to store at that Web site. As far as obtaining the original data, each file is a composite of a number of different types of data. For instance, the main earthquake data file contains actual earthquake data (mostly NEIS) and specially processed sun, moon, ocean tide, and Solid Earth Tide data. At the moment, the complete files including the EM signal data file have to be obtained by e-mail from me (no charge). An important goal of this project is to have all of them stored at a Web site for downloads. Also, I collect the EM signal data myself. But if this project ever gets off the ground those types of data will hopefully become available for free from many sources around the world. Finally, remember as I said earlier, I have been working on this project for 15 years. And it covers a lot of territory. A detailed discussion of it would fill a small book! -- http://mail.python.org/mailman/listinfo/python-list
Re: Earthquake Forecasting Program July 11, 2005
Hank Oredson [EMAIL PROTECTED] wrote in message news:[EMAIL PROTECTED] edgrsprj [EMAIL PROTECTED] wrote in message news:[EMAIL PROTECTED] Hank Oredson [EMAIL PROTECTED] wrote in message news:[EMAIL PROTECTED] edgrsprj [EMAIL PROTECTED] wrote in message news:[EMAIL PROTECTED] edgrsprj [EMAIL PROTECTED] wrote in message news:[EMAIL PROTECTED] PROPOSED EARTHQUAKE FORECASTING COMPUTER PROGRAM DEVELOPMENT EFFORT I guess my question was not specific enough. What I wanted was the exact sources, so I could access the data. The exact data sets you used. July 13, 2005 Thanks again for the comments and interest. The original report in this thread should have contained pointers to all of the information you are requesting. But once again, here are some of the important URLs. http://www.freewebz.com/eq-forecasting/301.html That Web page contains information regarding the details of how the forecasting program works. Also stored there are copies of an early Zipped .txt version of the Perl program I am using along with Zip file versions of earlier versions of the .txt format database files that I am using. I had to Zip them because of their size and the limited bandwidth of that Web site. If you would prefer to receive them as regular text files then you can try contacting me by e-mail and I will try to send them along. Perl users who downloaded and ran that .pl program some time ago said that they had no trouble getting it to run on a Window's XP system. Other operating system users might encounter a few formatting problems etc. http://www.freewebz.com/eq-forecasting/90-05.html http://www.freewebz.com/eq-forecasting/128.html Those Web pages discuss the theories involved with this forecasting method. Some of the most important information is at the end of that 128.html Web page. http://www.freewebz.com/eq-forecasting/Data.html That Web page contains several types of forecast data along with some information regarding how to interpret them. http://www.freewebz.com/eq-forecasting/151.html That Web page contains some Help information with details regarding things such as the U.S. Navy's MICA computer program which I use to generate data for things such as the locations of the Earth, sun, and moon relative to the J2000 reference system. You should not expect to be able to instantly absorb all of that information though it sounds like understanding it should not be a problem for you. I have been working on the project for about 15 years. And unfortunately, every improvement seems to take days, weeks, months, ... Additionally, as I said in my first report in this thread, the multiple participants part of the project is not yet operational. For one thing, a suitable Web site has to be found. Right now I am simply trying to determine what the interest level there might be in such a project. And positive feedback that I have been getting by e-mail etc. has been encouraging. -- http://mail.python.org/mailman/listinfo/python-list
Re: Earthquake Forecasting Program July 11, 2005
edgrsprj [EMAIL PROTECTED] wrote in message news:[EMAIL PROTECTED] Hank Oredson [EMAIL PROTECTED] wrote in message news:[EMAIL PROTECTED] edgrsprj [EMAIL PROTECTED] wrote in message news:[EMAIL PROTECTED] Hank Oredson [EMAIL PROTECTED] wrote in message news:[EMAIL PROTECTED] edgrsprj [EMAIL PROTECTED] wrote in message news:[EMAIL PROTECTED] edgrsprj [EMAIL PROTECTED] wrote in message news:[EMAIL PROTECTED] PROPOSED EARTHQUAKE FORECASTING COMPUTER PROGRAM DEVELOPMENT EFFORT I guess my question was not specific enough. What I wanted was the exact sources, so I could access the data. The exact data sets you used. July 13, 2005 Thanks again for the comments and interest. The original report in this thread should have contained pointers to all of the information you are requesting. But once again, here are some of the important URLs. http://www.freewebz.com/eq-forecasting/301.html That Web page contains information regarding the details of how the forecasting program works. Also stored there are copies of an early Zipped .txt version of the Perl program I am using along with Zip file versions of earlier versions of the .txt format database files that I am using. I had to Zip them because of their size and the limited bandwidth of that Web site. If you would prefer to receive them as regular text files then you can try contacting me by e-mail and I will try to send them along. Perl users who downloaded and ran that .pl program some time ago said that they had no trouble getting it to run on a Window's XP system. Other operating system users might encounter a few formatting problems etc. http://www.freewebz.com/eq-forecasting/90-05.html http://www.freewebz.com/eq-forecasting/128.html Those Web pages discuss the theories involved with this forecasting method. Some of the most important information is at the end of that 128.html Web page. I found no equations there, nor any links to the original data sources. http://www.freewebz.com/eq-forecasting/Data.html That Web page contains several types of forecast data along with some information regarding how to interpret them. Did not find any information on the source of the data. http://www.freewebz.com/eq-forecasting/151.html That Web page contains some Help information with details regarding things such as the U.S. Navy's MICA computer program which I use to generate data for things such as the locations of the Earth, sun, and moon relative to the J2000 reference system. You should not expect to be able to instantly absorb all of that information though it sounds like understanding it should not be a problem for you. I have been working on the project for about 15 years. And unfortunately, every improvement seems to take days, weeks, months, ... Everything looked fairly obvious, except that there did not seem to be any reference to the source of the datasets. Additionally, as I said in my first report in this thread, the multiple participants part of the project is not yet operational. For one thing, a suitable Web site has to be found. Right now I am simply trying to determine what the interest level there might be in such a project. And positive feedback that I have been getting by e-mail etc. has been encouraging. Perhaps I was not clear enough in my previous posts. I am looking for the SOURCE of the data, that is, where did YOU get the data from, so that I may obtain my own datasets. In particular I am interested in the EM dataset. -- ... Hank http://home.earthlink.net/~horedson http://home.earthlink.net/~w0rli -- http://mail.python.org/mailman/listinfo/python-list
Re: Earthquake Forecasting Program July 11, 2005
Hank Oredson [EMAIL PROTECTED] wrote in message news:[EMAIL PROTECTED] edgrsprj [EMAIL PROTECTED] wrote in message news:[EMAIL PROTECTED] edgrsprj [EMAIL PROTECTED] wrote in message news:[EMAIL PROTECTED] PROPOSED EARTHQUAKE FORECASTING COMPUTER PROGRAM DEVELOPMENT EFFORT What observational data are used? What are the sources of that observational data? How are those sources accessed? Is there a database to hold historical plus current data? If so, is it centralized or distributed? The project might be of interest if the data sources are rich enough, complete enough, and current enough. July 12, 2005 Thanks for the response and questions. The following are my personal opinions on this. Briefly, the amount of data available for this type of effort is virtually limitless. And more of those data than most people could even deal with can be obtained for free. You don't have to build a new laboratory filled with expensive equipment. A reasonably powerful computer, Access to the Internet, At least some knowledge of science Some computer programming ability And a little imagination Are all that are required. Researchers have been attempting to do this type of work for probably as far back as we have historical records. The reason that previous efforts that I am aware of have not been successful is because two key discoveries needed to be made. They are referred to on my 90-05.html Web page as the Gravity Point and Earthquake Triggering Symmetry. Now that those discoveries have been made the door should be open to tremendously rapid advances in our understanding of how and why earthquakes occur and how to forecast them. Much of this research could be easily done by computer programmers. You don't need to be a geophysicist. If the data you are generating look statistically significant then they are probably important whether or not you actually understand the geophysical theories behind them. To actually forecast earthquakes using the procedure I have developed you need both warning signal data and earthquake data along with some ocean tide and Solid Earth Tide data. But one of the really great parts of this particular research project is the fact that many of the basic discoveries can be made by simply comparing earthquakes with one another. You don't need any warning signal data at all. And there is certainly no shortage of earthquake data! At my Web site there is a discussion of a concept called Earthquake Pairs. They are two or more earthquakes which were apparently triggered in the same manner. My data indicate that the two highly destructive 1998 earthquakes in Afghanistan would represent an Earthquake Pair. And the two highly destructive 1999 earthquakes in Turkey would represent another pair. Important discoveries can be made by determining what the similarities are between the two or more earthquakes in an Earthquake Pair and how they differ from other earthquakes. And since the group of earthquake warning signals that I am presently working with is being controlled by the same forces that are responsible for earthquake triggering, significant discoveries regarding earthquake triggering processes could be immediately applied to forecasting efforts. One of the reasons that geologists have not yet taken an interest in this particular effort could be because it is heavily reliant on celestial mechanics. And most geology researchers appear to me to prefer to focus on measuring forces within the ground. I presently suspect that astronomers would be a more likely group to take an interest in this science at first. And I am planning to contact some of them about that. -- http://mail.python.org/mailman/listinfo/python-list
Re: Earthquake Forecasting Program July 11, 2005
edgrsprj [EMAIL PROTECTED] wrote in message news:[EMAIL PROTECTED] Hank Oredson [EMAIL PROTECTED] wrote in message news:[EMAIL PROTECTED] edgrsprj [EMAIL PROTECTED] wrote in message news:[EMAIL PROTECTED] edgrsprj [EMAIL PROTECTED] wrote in message news:[EMAIL PROTECTED] PROPOSED EARTHQUAKE FORECASTING COMPUTER PROGRAM DEVELOPMENT EFFORT What observational data are used? What are the sources of that observational data? How are those sources accessed? Is there a database to hold historical plus current data? If so, is it centralized or distributed? The project might be of interest if the data sources are rich enough, complete enough, and current enough. July 12, 2005 Thanks for the response and questions. The following are my personal opinions on this. Briefly, the amount of data available for this type of effort is virtually limitless. And more of those data than most people could even deal with can be obtained for free. I guess my question was not specific enough. What I wanted was the exact sources, so I could access the data. The exact data sets you used. You don't have to build a new laboratory filled with expensive equipment. A reasonably powerful computer, Access to the Internet, At least some knowledge of science Some computer programming ability And a little imagination I'm a retired physicist with a great deal of experience in data transformation, verification and analysis. Also plenty of computers. Fast internet connection. Are all that are required. I have all those things. Researchers have been attempting to do this type of work for probably as far back as we have historical records. The reason that previous efforts that I am aware of have not been successful is because two key discoveries needed to be made. They are referred to on my 90-05.html Web page as the Gravity Point and Earthquake Triggering Symmetry. Now that those discoveries have been made the door should be open to tremendously rapid advances in our understanding of how and why earthquakes occur and how to forecast them. References please, I found some simple description, but no mathematics or references to the data sets used or the equations you used to do your analysis. Point me to that stuff. Much of this research could be easily done by computer programmers. You don't need to be a geophysicist. If the data you are generating look statistically significant then they are probably important whether or not you actually understand the geophysical theories behind them. No problem understanding the physics (geo or otherwise). No problem writing software to do the analyses. Might even be fun. To actually forecast earthquakes using the procedure I have developed you need both warning signal data and earthquake data along with some ocean tide and Solid Earth Tide data. But one of the really great parts of this particular research project is the fact that many of the basic discoveries can be made by simply comparing earthquakes with one another. You don't need any warning signal data at all. And there is certainly no shortage of earthquake data! Yes, I understand all that. Where are the data sets? Where is the description of the procedure? URLs would be nice, journal article references are ok. At my Web site there is a discussion of a concept called Earthquake Pairs. They are two or more earthquakes which were apparently triggered in the same manner. My data indicate that the two highly destructive 1998 earthquakes in Afghanistan would represent an Earthquake Pair. And the two highly destructive 1999 earthquakes in Turkey would represent another pair. Important discoveries can be made by determining what the similarities are between the two or more earthquakes in an Earthquake Pair and how they differ from other earthquakes. And since the group of earthquake warning signals that I am presently working with is being controlled by the same forces that are responsible for earthquake triggering, significant discoveries regarding earthquake triggering processes could be immediately applied to forecasting efforts. I would rather do my own data analysis, but for me to do that there must be published data sets, that I can use. Doing the various coorelations, power spectra, convolutions is easy. So what is needed is the data sets, and the specific things you think make prediction possible. Then I can test those things, along with others that I might find interesting. One of the reasons that geologists have not yet taken an interest in this particular effort could be because it is heavily reliant on celestial mechanics. And most geology researchers appear to me to prefer to focus on measuring forces within the ground. I presently suspect that astronomers would be a more likely group to take an interest in this science at first. And I am planning to contact some of them about that. So point
