Re: [R-sig-eco] GLM: calculate percentage deviance of factor

2012-11-30 Thread Martin Weiser
Jade Maggs píše v Čt 01. 11. 2012 v 16:02 +0200:
 Dear list,
 
 I have run a generalized linear model with negative binomial 
 distribution (log-link) on fish abundance data.
 
 log(abundTot) ~ Bo + B1(topog) + B2(activity) + e
 
 *My output is as follows**:*
 
 summary(glmNB1)
 Call: glm.nb(formula = abundTot ~ activity + topog, init.theta = 
 5.431057349,
  link = log)
 Deviance Residuals:
  Min   1Q   Median   3Q  Max
 -3.1348  -0.7846  -0.2781   0.3097   5.3866
 Coefficients:
  Estimate Std. Error z value Pr(|z|)
 (Intercept)  2.652150.07810  33.958   2e-16 ***
 activity[T.hd]  -0.044470.08299  -0.536   0.5921
 activity[T.hfd] -0.449260.08884  -5.057 4.27e-07 ***
 activity[T.nil]  0.075100.05808   1.293   0.1960
 topog0.030840.01546   1.995   0.0461 *
 ---
 Signif. codes:  0 '***' 0.001 '**' 0.01 '*' 0.05 '.' 0.1 ' ' 1
 
 (Dispersion parameter for Negative Binomial(5.4311) family taken to be 1)
 
  Null deviance: 473.32  on 428  degrees of freedom Residual 
 deviance: 428.00  on 424  degrees of freedom
 AIC: 2916.3
 
 Number of Fisher Scoring iterations: 1
 
 
Theta:  5.431
Std. Err.:  0.485
 
 2 x log-likelihood:  -2904.260
 
 *and*
 anova(glmNB1)
 Analysis of Deviance Table
 
 Model: Negative Binomial(5.4311), link: log
 
 Response: abundTot
 
 Terms added sequentially (first to last)
 
 
   Df Deviance Resid. Df Resid. Dev  Pr(Chi)
 NULL   428 473.32
 activity  3   41.272   425 432.05 5.726e-09 ***
 topog 14.053   424 428.000.0441 *
 ---
 Signif. codes:  0 '***' 0.001 '**' 0.01 '*' 0.05 '.' 0.1 ' ' 1
 
 Please can someone explain how to calculate the percentage deviance 
 explained by each factor separately (i.e. topog and activity).
 
 Kind regards,
 

Dear Jade,
as far as I know (and feel free to correct me, anybody), traditional
goodness of fit measure - R squared (or ratio of sum of squares) is not
strictly defined for models other than linear. You should look for some
alternative, eg. Nagelkerke's R-squared, but be warned that these
alternatives sometimes lack some usual properties of R2 like aditivity -
sum of Your explained variances for individual factors would not be
the same as the explained variance of the full model. 
I hope this helps.
Martin Weiser

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Re: [R-sig-eco] patterns in weather data that could relate to pathogen prevalence

2012-11-30 Thread Bob O'Hara

On 11/30/2012 01:09 PM, Anto Raja wrote:

Hi all

I am searching for a tool that would help me to identify weather patterns
that influence the prevalence of a pathogen, 'Pn'.

Say, I have annual prevalence data (collected in April) and I know that the
prevalence of 'Pn' is affected by the weather conditions since November. I
also have daily data for different weeather variables.
You have a lot of weather data, but I assume you don't have so much 
prevalence data. So it's going to be difficult, whatever you do...

The objective is to identify the relationship between the weather from
Nov-Mar and the prevalence of Pn. We know that weather has an influence on
Pn. The question is to find out weather from which period is relevant or
what kind of weather is relevant. It could be that the first two winter
months (Nov-Dec) is the decisive factor or that a certain weather situation
(like 20 consecutive days of below zero conditions) occuring at any time is
important or a combination of both.

I have tried correlations between prevalence and monthly means for Mar,
Feb-Mar, Jan-Mar and so on and nothing definite turned up. I could also do
it on a weekly basis manually. But I wonder if there is a tool that uses a
moving window of different sizes (say, from a min size of 1 week to a max
of 4 months) and checks correlations for each of these periods.

I am thinking of ARMA, but my present intention is not to forecast but only
to study. Can it still be used? Or ARMA in combination with multivariate
analysis to study the relative importance of each weather variable.
I don't see why an ARMA model would help you, as that assumes a 
covariance between times (i.e. autocorrelation) in the response (i.e. 
prevalence). There are methods for assuming that the response has an 
autocorrelation, but I don't think that's your big problem. My reaction 
(without seeing the data, of course) is that you might be asking too 
much of your data to get anything meaningful out of it.



Any suugestions are welcome. I have used R for basic stats analysis but
never worked with time-series data or the advanced tools of data mining.
So, it could also be possible I am not thinking along the right lines. Feel
free to correct if I am looking in the wrong place.
It sounds like you're trying to mine your data for any pattern. To be 
honest, if you do that, I wouldn't trust the results unless you can 
validate them independently: you'll find some relationship if you try 
enough models, but will it make biological sense? This is particularly 
problematic when you have correlated variables, which you will do 
(especially when you start sliding windows around)


I'd suggest you start by using what's known of the pathogen or its host, 
or of similar host-pathogen systems, to develop a smaller number of 
hypotheses about what sort of effects are likely. Plant ecologists often 
use GDD5 (Growing Degree Days above 5°C), which might be a useful way of 
reducing the temperature data to something smaller. Of course, another 
temperature than 5°C might work better for you.


Bob

--
Bob O'Hara

Biodiversity and Climate Research Centre
Senckenberganlage 25
D-60325 Frankfurt am Main,
Germany

Tel: +49 69 7542 1863 /  +49 69 798 40226
Mobile: +49 1515 888 5440
WWW:   http://www.bik-f.de/root/index.php?page_id=219
Blog: http://blogs.nature.com/boboh
Journal of Negative Results - EEB: www.jnr-eeb.org

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Re: [R-sig-eco] GLM: calculate percentage deviance of factor

2012-11-30 Thread Tim Meehan
Hi Jade,

You should look into the hier.part package.  I know it works for glm but
you might try it for glm.nb.

Best,
Tim


On Fri, Nov 30, 2012 at 6:40 AM, Martin Weiser weis...@natur.cuni.czwrote:

 Jade Maggs pí¹e v Èt 01. 11. 2012 v 16:02 +0200:
  Dear list,
 
  I have run a generalized linear model with negative binomial
  distribution (log-link) on fish abundance data.
 
  log(abundTot) ~ Bo + B1(topog) + B2(activity) + e
 
  *My output is as follows**:*
 
  summary(glmNB1)
  Call: glm.nb(formula = abundTot ~ activity + topog, init.theta =
  5.431057349,
   link = log)
  Deviance Residuals:
   Min   1Q   Median   3Q  Max
  -3.1348  -0.7846  -0.2781   0.3097   5.3866
  Coefficients:
   Estimate Std. Error z value Pr(|z|)
  (Intercept)  2.652150.07810  33.958   2e-16 ***
  activity[T.hd]  -0.044470.08299  -0.536   0.5921
  activity[T.hfd] -0.449260.08884  -5.057 4.27e-07 ***
  activity[T.nil]  0.075100.05808   1.293   0.1960
  topog0.030840.01546   1.995   0.0461 *
  ---
  Signif. codes:  0 '***' 0.001 '**' 0.01 '*' 0.05 '.' 0.1 ' ' 1
 
  (Dispersion parameter for Negative Binomial(5.4311) family taken to be 1)
 
   Null deviance: 473.32  on 428  degrees of freedom Residual
  deviance: 428.00  on 424  degrees of freedom
  AIC: 2916.3
 
  Number of Fisher Scoring iterations: 1
 
 
 Theta:  5.431
 Std. Err.:  0.485
 
  2 x log-likelihood:  -2904.260
 
  *and*
  anova(glmNB1)
  Analysis of Deviance Table
 
  Model: Negative Binomial(5.4311), link: log
 
  Response: abundTot
 
  Terms added sequentially (first to last)
 
 
Df Deviance Resid. Df Resid. Dev  Pr(Chi)
  NULL   428 473.32
  activity  3   41.272   425 432.05 5.726e-09 ***
  topog 14.053   424 428.000.0441 *
  ---
  Signif. codes:  0 '***' 0.001 '**' 0.01 '*' 0.05 '.' 0.1 ' ' 1
 
  Please can someone explain how to calculate the percentage deviance
  explained by each factor separately (i.e. topog and activity).
 
  Kind regards,
 

 Dear Jade,
 as far as I know (and feel free to correct me, anybody), traditional
 goodness of fit measure - R squared (or ratio of sum of squares) is not
 strictly defined for models other than linear. You should look for some
 alternative, eg. Nagelkerke's R-squared, but be warned that these
 alternatives sometimes lack some usual properties of R2 like aditivity -
 sum of Your explained variances for individual factors would not be
 the same as the explained variance of the full model.
 I hope this helps.
 Martin Weiser

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Re: [R-sig-eco] Zuur / Pinierho / Faraway

2012-11-30 Thread Dave Roberts

Philip,

   IS there an online errata,or do you just have to be smart and diligent?

Thanks, Dave

On 11/29/2012 07:30 AM, Dixon, Philip M [STAT] wrote:

I agree with all the previous comments and second Tom's recommendations of Faraway 
as an 'in between' Zuur and Piniehro  Bates.  One thing to be careful of: 
While the advice in Faraway is sound, there are more than a few mistakes in his 
equations.

Philip Dixon

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Professor and Head  FAX 406-994-3190
Department of Ecology email drobe...@montana.edu
Montana State University
Bozeman, MT 59717-3460

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Re: [R-sig-eco] Zuur / Pinierho / Faraway

2012-11-30 Thread Philippi, Tom
At least some errata at:
http://www.maths.bath.ac.uk/~jjf23/ELM/
http://www.maths.bath.ac.uk/~jjf23/ELM/errata.html

Tom 2


On Fri, Nov 30, 2012 at 10:47 AM, Dave Roberts 
dvr...@ecology.msu.montana.edu wrote:

 Philip,

IS there an online errata,or do you just have to be smart and diligent?

 Thanks, Dave

 On 11/29/2012 07:30 AM, Dixon, Philip M [STAT] wrote:

 I agree with all the previous comments and second Tom's recommendations
 of Faraway as an 'in between' Zuur and Piniehro  Bates.  One thing to be
 careful of: While the advice in Faraway is sound, there are more than a few
 mistakes in his equations.


 Philip Dixon

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 --
 ~~**~~**
 
 David W. Roberts office 406-994-4548
 Professor and Head  FAX 406-994-3190
 Department of Ecology email drobe...@montana.edu
 Montana State University
 Bozeman, MT 59717-3460


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-- 
---
Tom Philippi, Ph.D.
Quantitative Ecologist  Data Therapist
Inventory and Monitoring Program
National Park Service
(619) 523-4576
tom_phili...@nps.gov
http://science.nature.nps.gov/im/monitor

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