WELCOME TO IWPR'S REPORTING CENTRAL ASIA, No. 490, 23 March, 2007 KYRGYZ RALLY ENDS IN DISARRAY Compromise still possible on constitution, but deep divisions separate the president and the opposition. By IWPR staff in Bishkek and London
KAZAK AUTHORITIES RELUCTANT TO ALLOW PUBLIC PROTESTS Concerns that rights to free assembly are under threat as Almaty protesters are told they can gather, but only if they do so well away from the city centre. By Daur Dosybiev in Almaty **** NEW AT IWPR ****************************************************************** NEW PODCAST: THIS WEEK ON IWPR A regular audio programme produced by IWPR US, highlighting IWPR news and analysis on issues of conflict, human rights and international justice, written by our contributors around the world. To listen to the programme or for details on how to subscribe see http://iwpr.net/?apc_state=hen&s=u&p IRAQ PHOTO DIARIES, NIGHT RAIDS: Peter van Agtmael documents the late-night raids carried out by American and Iraqi troops against the homes of suspected insurgents. 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By IWPR staff in Bishkek and London Hopes that the latest stand-off between the Kyrgyz government and its opponents would be resolved with a compromise deal suffered a blow this week when police dispersed an opposition rally as some of the protesters tried to storm the government building. During the rally on Bishkeks central Ala-Too square, which began on April 11, the opposition the United Front for a Worthy Future for Kyrgyzstan and the Movement for Reforms had appeared in confident mood, insisting that President Kurmanbek Bakiev must step down and allow an early presidential election. Opposition supporters announced plans to gather the 300,000 signatures needed to hold a nationwide referendum on impeaching Bakiev. That confidence has gone, at least for now. The protesters have disappeared from the square, their impromptu encampment of nomadic yurt tents dismantled, the United Fronts offices have been raided and its leaders called in for questioning by the National Security Committee Police moved in on April 19, the ninth day of protests, after some of those in the crowd tried to force their way into the White House, the main government building. Riot police used tear gas to disperse the crowd, and 11 people including five policemen were taken to hospital after being injured in scuffles as the crowd was dispersed. Around 100 people were arrested. It is unclear where the confrontation between Bakiev and his opponents goes from here. The latter have failed to unseat the president, and will find it harder to regroup for a further round of street demonstrations. Pro-Bakiev members of parliament are pressing for prosecutions and payment for damages. One local analyst, Marat Kazakbaev, suggests that the opposition miscalculated by making absolutist demands for example telling Bakiev to resign at a time when the president had been seen to adopt conciliatory policies. The protest failed because people saw that the authorities were paying heed to the opposition's demands and were making concessions, he said. Before the rally got under way, Bakiev had selected a leading opposition figure, Almazbek Atambaev, to head up a coalition cabinet, a venture which foundered after other oppositionists refused to take ministerial posts. Bakiev had also made other efforts to meet opposition demands, for example by moving ahead with constitutional reform. When the authorities make concessions, it is not the right time to be laying down radical demands, commented Kazakbaev. The opposition remained deeply mistrustful of the presidents concessions, seeing them as empty promises that came too late in the day and were unlikely to be fulfilled. This current crisis has its roots in the last round of protests in November, when a weeklong rally by Movement for Reforms supporters forced Bakiev to accept a new draft of the constitution that significantly curbed his powers. In December, the president was able to force parliament to agree to a revised version that restored much of his authority, a move which his opponents saw as reneging on the earlier deal. There is in theory still scope for some kind of consensus on the constitutional question. Parliament has been asked to review a proposed draft of the constitution, and swore in two new Constitutional Court judges crucial to the process on April 20. However, what is unclear is which document will go before legislators the opposition version produced by the United Front, the official one drafted by a working group led by Prime Minister Atambaev, or conceivably a compromise draft combining the two. Despite the rout of the protesters, Tamerlan Ibraimov, director of the Centre for Political and Legal Studies, insists the rally will prove to have been of benefit in the longer term. It has contributed to the swift launch of constitutional reform, which will result in a stronger prime minister and a president with less power, he said. Melis Eshimkanov, a member of parliament and a member of the United Front, also said the opposition had proved its mettle. Speaking before the rally was broken up by police, he said The United Front has only existed for less than two months, but in this short time it has been able to change the situation in the country. The president gave former oppositionist Almazbek Atambaev the position of prime minister, he was prepared to hand the entire cabinet to the opposition, he presented a new version of the constitution to parliament, and he is now bargaining with everyone simply to keep his position. One complicating factor is that as well as policy issues, there are strong personalities involved in this latest round of confrontation. The November dispute was between Bakiev and the Movement for Reforms. But this time the oppositions agenda has been driven by Felix Kulov, who was Bakievs prime minister until January this year, but who formed the United Front in February and assumed a leading role in the opposition. In the unstable period that followed the March 2005 revolution, the two men formed a political alliance known as the tandem that secured nationwide support for Bakiev to win election as president. The vote might otherwise have been split between Kulovs supporters in the north of Kyrgyzstan and Bakievs support-base in the south. Kulov resigned in December 2006, but stayed on in a caretaker capacity. But after parliament twice refused to endorse Bakievs attempt to get him re-confirmed in the post, the president nominated another candidate, Kulov was out, and the tandem arrangement was over. As the Movement for Reforms began to be led by the United Fronts more radical agenda in terms of policy, Kulovs emergence as the leading light in the opposition also personalised the political confrontation, potentially making a compromise more difficult. Political analyst Turat Akimov likens the conflict between Kulov and Bakiev to a head-on collision between two kamikazes. Neither of them wants to make any concessions or compromises, or hold talks. Now the only question is who will break whom, he said. Parliamentarian Rashid Tagaev also said personal grievances and ambitions had fuelled confrontation. A fight for power is under way, or more precisely for one position that of president, he told IWPR. The need to co-opt different regional constituencies was the raison detre of the tandem, and the ensuing political split between Bakiev and Kulov has also become a regional issue. Regionalism is a powerful force in Kyrgyz politics which many regard as a major risk to stability. In remarks to journalists on April 15, Kulov referred to the regional divide, saying, A president who causes confrontation among the people, dividing those in the north from those in the south, does not have the right to be head of state. The rally in Bishkek appears to have been attended mainly by people from northern Kyrgyzstan, where Kulov is stronger. Attempts to stage similar events in southern cities were called off for fear they would be disrupted by pro-Bakiev groups. The vast majority of opposition deputies and of the participants in the rally come from the northern elite. So there is an element of regionalism here, said parliamentarian Iskhak Masaliev. The north-south divide is such a potent issue that although politicians may try to harness it for their own ends, doing so is a high-risk venture. The opposition and President Bakievs supporters inevitably think along regional lines; it is a political tool to mobilise mass support, said political analyst Mars Sariev. People are becoming politicised and divided according to their regional origin, and this is even happening to people who had never thought about this before. This is a mistake by our politicians, and stems from their immaturity. Roza Otunbaeva, a former ally of Bakiev but now an opponent, believes the current politicisation of the north-south divide can be traced to the uneasy nature of the Bakiev-Kulov tandem. It reduced them to the level of regional leaders, she said. Kulov became the leader of the north, while Bakiev became the southern leader. And so the south has to defend Bakiev, and a section of the northern electorate went out onto the square in support of Kulov. This does no credit to either of them. They are the ones who are dividing the people. Akylbek Isanov provided reporting from Bishkek for this article. IWPRs News Briefing Central Asia agency also provided some of the interviews. KAZAK AUTHORITIES RELUCTANT TO ALLOW PUBLIC PROTESTS Concerns that rights to free assembly are under threat as Almaty protesters are told they can gather, but only if they do so well away from the city centre. By Daur Dosybiev in Almaty Political turbulence in Kyrgyzstan and Ukraine appears to be making the Kazak authorities more than usually jumpy about protests in their own country, even when these have little to do with politics. The authorities in Kazakstans former capital Almaty recently ordered a planned protest over urban development to take place on the outskirts of the city rather in the centre as the organisers wanted. The protest was scheduled for April 15 a time when in neighbouring Kyrgyzstan, thousands of protesters were gathered in the centre of the capital Bishkek calling on the president to resign. Unlike the Kyrgyz protests, the Almaty rally was not overtly political. Plans to redesign a central district of Almaty known as the golden square, which will involve the demolition of many homes, have created a groundswell of opposition among residents in recent months. The organisers of the April protest, a group called Protect Our City, said they would postpone the event rather than agree to relocate it far from the city centre, where it was likely to pass unnoticed. A city resident whose own home is scheduled for demolition voiced the anger felt by many. Construction firms have already bought up the entire city and hiked up the prices of housing and land, he said. We want the authorities to listen to us and take our opinion into account, but instead they tell us to let off steam on the city outskirts. The city authorities may have been made more nervous by the fact that the rally was to be attended by other pressure groups with different grievances, so that it might have begun to look like a grassroots, broad-based movement. Apart from residents, environmentalists and architectural experts concerned about urban redevelopment, another particularly vocal group consists of owners of right-hand-drive cars, which the authorities have ordered off the road by 2009. The government says the cars, , cause a disproportionately high number of accidents in a country where most cars are left-hand-drive. But the owners are an important social group, the emerging middle class, who can just about afford a cheap import from the Far East and feel they are being punished by the rich and powerful who control car sales. A disgruntled car owner, Takejan Akhmetov, explained why people like him planned to join a rally against urban development. Social and economic problems have built up in our society. We dont want them to turn into a conflict . [but] people dont want these problems to be hidden away on distant squares. A representative of the Almaty city government who asked not to be named said holding the rally in the city centre would have caused serious traffic problems, and in any case there was a new rule that all protests had to be held in a particular square ten kilometres from the centre of town. Yevgeny Zhovtis, director of the Kazakstan Bureau for Human Rights and Rule of Law, told IWPR that such restrictions on the right to assembly stemmed from the governments fear of popular unrest, which have led to regime change in Georgia, Ukraine and Kyrgyzstan in recent years. I think that by banning peaceful meetings, the authorities are hoping to protect themselves against public dissatisfaction, he said. Zhovtis said excessive curbs on public protests could prove counter-productive. People hold a peaceful meeting and the police start to pressure them merely because certain formalities have not been observed, he said. There are beatings and arrests, and this only leads to radicalisation and an increase in the level of conflict. Human rights groups are growing increasingly concerned about restrictions on freedom of assembly, which is a constitutional right in Kazakstan although demonstrations have to be approved by the authorities in advance. Unfortunately, the right of assembly, like many other rights and freedoms of citizens in Kazakstan, is illusory, he said. They may exist in the constitution, but they dont operate in everyday life. On April 12, Zhovtiss group along with other human rights groups presented a draft law on freedom of assembly which they say is intended to provide clearer guidance on how advance notice is given of public meetings, and the reasons which the authorities can use to ban them The authorities have yet to react to the proposal. Daur Dosybiev is an IWPR contributor in Almaty. **** www.iwpr.net ******************************************************************** REPORTING CENTRAL ASIA provides the international community with a unique insiders' perspective on the region. Using our network of local journalists, the service publishes news and analysis from across Central Asia on a weekly basis. The service forms part of IWPR's Central Asia Project based in Almaty, Bishkek, Tashkent and London, which supports media development and encourages better local and international understanding of the region. IWPR's Reporting Central Asia is supported by the UK Community Fund. 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