WELCOME TO IWPR'S REPORTING CENTRAL ASIA, No. 515, 13 November, 2007 SPECIAL REPORT
UZBEK ELECTION COUNTS FOR LITTLE Six candidates, five political parties and only one possible winner. By IWPR staff in Central Asia TAJIKISTAN: REPRESSIVE RELIGIOUS LAW IN THE PIPELINE Proposed legislation would make it harder for smaller faith groups to operate. By Nafisa Pisarejeva in Dushanbe **** IWPR RESOURCES ****************************************************************** THE KURT SCHORK MEMORIAL FUND AND THE INSTITUTE FOR WAR & PEACE REPORTING invite you to an evening to celebrate the best in committed and fearless reporting at the Frontline Club, London, Wednesday November 14th 2007 at 7.30pm. Hosted by Christine Amanpour of CNN and the Kurt Schork Memorial Fund Advisory Board. The Award Ceremony to be followed by a special panel discussion: Getting the real story out: How to access and verify stories from inside the worlds most problematic and isolated countries? To reserve your seat or to find out more go to www.iwpr.net/kurtschork.html CROSS CAUCASUS JOURNALISM NETWORK. 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Despite the emergence of rival candidates, President Karimov held off formalising his candidacy until November 6, when he accepted a unanimous nomination by a congress of the Liberal Democratic Party, LDP, one of several parties whose creation he has engineered over the years. In an unprecedented show of numbers, all the other legal, pro-government parties have also come up with their own candidates. On October 15, the Central Electoral Commission gave the green light to their nominees, as well as to the head of a government agency for human rights. The election will take place on December 23. In the last presidential election, held in 2000, there was only one alternative figure whom voters could have chosen. Abdulhafiz Jalolov won four per cent of the vote despite backing Karimov and voting for him himself. Karimov won 92 per cent of the vote, although there was no way of evaluating this figure independently. CONSTITUTIONAL QUANDARY What has yet to be made clear is how Karimov can be re-elected at all. He first took charge of what was then Soviet Uzbekistan in 1989, and was elected president of the now independent country in 1991. At that point, the constitution allowed him to serve two five-year terms. However, a referendum in 1995 extended his first term for a further five years, so he only stood for his second term in 2000. But two years later, the constitution was amended to make this a seven-year stretch. That more or less exhausted the constitutional options, even for a leader who makes up the rules, and when Karimovs term in office ran out in January 2007, the country entered a kind of constitutional limbo. The somewhat tortuous solution which has not been stated explicitly by the authorities appears to be that Karimovs third term in office is actually his second, on the assumption that he got to start all over again at the 2000 election. That second mandate was converted retrospectively into the first of two seven-year terms. Hence, he is entitled to another shot at the presidency. According to Uzbek analyst Komron Aliev, Karimov pays little heed to constitutional niceties.Over his last 16 years in power [since the 1991 election], Karimov has said what he wanted and done what he wanted. It would be naïve to expect any changes now, he said. Democracy in Uzbekistan has been destroyed and the constitution has been changed many times. Tashkent-based analyst Iskandar Khudoiberdiev added, It is not the first time that the current leadership has failed to observe laws - even legislation that it adopted itself. This has been going on since the start of Karimovs rule. Those who are in in power are above the law. We have no independent courts. THE OTHER CANDIDATES To get their candidates registered, parties or public initiative groups are required to submit 800,000 signatures along with their application to the Central Electoral Commission, CEC. So far the only candidate not nominated by a party is also an establishment figure. Akmal Saidov is director of the National Centre for Human Rights and chairs the parliamentary committee for democratic institutions. Five individuals three human rights activists, a doctor and an unemployed academic - announced plans to stand as independents, but have fallen by the wayside as the CEC failed to register them as candidates. All five political parties taking part in this election are staunchly pro-Karimov, which is unsurprising as he engineered their creation one after another. Over the years they have taken it in turn to be the presidents favourite, but despite each one proclaiming a new approach when it first emerged, they are in practice indistinguishable and are largely inactive between elections. In recent years, the process of building parties in this country has been controlled by Islam Karimov and his administration. Therefore, all the leaders of the current parties were appointed by the president, said an analyst in Tashkent, who asked not to be named. Two opposition parties dating from the early Nineties, Erk and Birlik, operate only underground and their leaders are in exile. They will not be fielding candidates; nor will the more recent Ozod Dehkonlar (Free Farmers) Party. The Peoples Democratic Party, PDP, has nominated the leader of its parliamentary faction, Asliddin Rustamov. The PDP is the oldest of the five, emerging from the Communist Party to become Karimovs political vehicle in the early Nineties. It fielded the only alternative candidate in the last presidential election. The Adolat (Justice) Social Democratic Party has nominated parliamentarian Dilorom Tashmuhammedova the only woman standing while the Milli Tiklanish (National Revival) Democratic Party offered its candidacy to writer and parliamentarian Khurshid Dostmuhammad. These two parties were set up in 1995, perhaps to dilute the PDPs numerical domination of parliament and allow Karimov to explore different political vehicles. The presidents next creation was the Fidokorlar (Self-Sacrifiers) National Democratic Party, set up in 1998. For a time, it was the top party a merger with another group made it the biggest parliamentary faction in 2000, and it was Fidokorlar that nominated Karimov when he was re-elected that year. The party has now selected Akhtam Tursunov, who chairs the parliamentary committee for defence and security, as its candidate. Dating from 2003, the LDP is the most recent party to appear. It styles itself the movement for entrepreneurs and businesspeople. Speaking a year later, Karimov said the party was needed because the others differ little from one another. The LDP won a majority in the December 2004/January 2005 parliamentary election, winning 34 per cent of seats. The PDP trailed at 28 per cent while the other each scored under 20 per cent. The LDP has underlined its dominant position by forming an alliance with Fidokorlar and Adolat called the Bloc of Democratic Forces. The LDP is positioning itself as a leading force that unites businessmen and entrepreneurs under the slogan of, One enterprising, courageous, energetic, determined, businesslike and vigilant person is better than thousands upon thousands of idle, apathetic people, said the Tashkent-based analyst. An LDP official who asked to remain anonymous said the party will mobilise all its forces and those of the state, too, to ensure a resounding victory for Karimov. The LDP candidate will lead in the elections. The party now has all the resources administrative, power, funding and information. No protest force is going to overcome this bureaucratic machine consisting of corrupt officials, security-sector figures and business elites who are, for the moment, putting their stake on Karimov, said the source. Another LDP official suggested this exercise in pluralism was a desperate attempt to improve Uzbekistans tarnished image. The authorities want to show the West that Uzbek elections are much more democratic than Kazak ones, so they want all the parties [to take part], he said. Although the December 2005 ballot in which Kazakstans Nursultan Nazarbaev was re-elected was roundly condemned by international monitors, the four candidates standing against him did at least include some real political opponents. NOT A HINT OF CONTEST Analysts in Uzbekistan say none of the candidates is a heavyweight who might conceivably pose a threat to Karimov. Even if some of them fall by the wayside, no harm will be done as they are all much of a muchness, said political analyst Farhad Tolipov. The candidates efforts to win votes are likely to reflect this, with some lacklustre campaigning around the country, and no one saying a word against Karimov. Nobody is planning to mount a serious fight for the presidency, said a Tashkent-based journalist. VOTERS RESIGNED TO THE STATUS QUO Across Uzbekistan, there appears to be little interest in the December election. Some voters are prepared to vote for Karimov the only president they have ever known - on the grounds that he has brought stability. I know Im voting for Karimov, said one enthusiast in Samarkand, Karimovs home city in western Uzbekistan. Islam Karimov has stabilised the situation. There is no war here, and people live peacably. What more do we need? For people like this voter, a strong ruler is preferable to the kind of regime change led by popular revolts seen in neighbouring Kyrgyzstan in 2005, and earlier in Ukraine and Georgia. We see what all these revolutions bring, he said dismissively. However, many others are resigned to an election that already shows signs of being rigged. Outsiders will not be allowed to assume power. We know very well how Karimov clings to power, said a qualified engineer in the Khorezm region in the northwest. Muhammad Salih was the last authoritative contender I can think of. Salih is leader of the unregistered Erk party and has been living in exile since 1993, when he fled because of mounting harassment. He stood against Karimov in the first presidential election, held in 1991. A woman from the city of Navoi, south of Khorezm, said she had heard there were to be multiple candidates from multiple parties but had not decided whether to vote. Its all for show. Everybody knows Karimov will win this election even if people dont vote for him. They will fix the result and he will stay, she said. In southwest Uzbekistan, a village council worker said, Now theyre saying on TV that there are many candidates, although I cant remember their names. I heard Karimov was nominated by some party or other, and that means its all going to happen all over again. I remember how the election went seven years ago. There were people from the mahalla [neighbourhood] committees sitting in the polling stations to ensure we had Karimovs name on our ballot papers. One 70-year-old pensioner plans to make a small protest against Karimov by picking the candidate nominated by the PDP, the former communist party which the president has discarded in favour of the LDP. People no longer believe in any party, he said. They know there is Karimovs party, and the rest of them were created by Karimov to show the world how democracy is blossoming here. I am going to vote for the PDP because they are former communists and life wasnt too bad when they were in power. I do know, though, that my vote will count for nothing they will amend it [in favour of Karimov] when the ballots are being counted. With a just over a month to go, neither voters nor Uzbekistan-watchers are holding their breath. As in previous years, the election will be conducted in a pre-arranged manner which ignores the interests of the people, said analyst Khudoiberganov. We will see 85 to 90 per cent of the electorate voting for one man. (The names of many interviewees have been withheld for security reasons. TAJIKISTAN: REPRESSIVE RELIGIOUS LAW IN THE PIPELINE Proposed legislation would make it harder for smaller faith groups to operate. By Nafisa Pisarejeva in Dushanbe Civil rights activists in Tajikistan fear the government is pushing for more restrictive legislation on religious practice, in the same way it did with a law on non-government groups earlier this year. Activists and faith group representatives say their views have been ignored in the discussion of the new legislation, which has been going on for the past two years. The draft law, which would make it tougher for smaller religious communities to register with the authorities, is still being discussed by officials and has yet to be sent to parliament. The new legislation has been designed by the culture ministrys religious department and to replace the relatively liberal law on religion dating from 1994. It sets out tough new conditions which religious groups must meet before gaining official registration, including an increase in the minimum number of members, and it would prohibit missionary activities. Islam is the religion of Tajiks and the large Uzbek minority, while ethnic Russians are traditionally of Orthodox Christian background. These two major religious communities have avoided poaching each others congregations, but have looked on with concern as newer groups, often Protestant Christian, have moved in and begun proselytising since the collapse of the Soviet Union in 1991. The new law is clearly aimed at curbing the activities of these smaller groups, and they are now trying to make their concerns heard. In July, some 20 Protestant groups and the Bahai Society wrote to President Imomali Rahmon voicing alarm over the draft religious legislation. The law creates completely impractical conditions for registering religious minority organisations, whether they already exist or are newly created. Thus, they make it illegal for believers to practice their religion, and this suggests that in future, the state will persecute them for their beliefs, their statement read. There have also been expressions of concern from the Roman Catholic Church. Human rights activists say the Law on Public Associations, which was passed at the end of April and governs the activity of non-government organisations, NGOs, set a bad precedent because there, too, the views of civil society activists were ignored, and the result was a restrictive piece of legislation. We must not allow what has happened to the law on public associations to happen to this religious legislation. If we dont defend our rights actively, every law that is passed will ignore our interests, said the chairman of the ethnic Korean society, Viktor Kim. Most Koreans in Tajikistan who are there because Stalin deported large numbers from the Far East in the late Thirties are Christians, and many have joined some of the newer faith groups. The NGO legislation, introduced to replace out-of-date laws from the Nineties, requires organisations to register annually with the authorities. Local and international NGOs argue that this gives the authorities leverage to exert pressure on them. That law was drafted without involving civil society activists or independent legal consultants, they say. While some amendments have since been adopted following complaints from local and foreign groups including the scrapping of a requirement for foreign ministry accreditation in addition to registration with the justice ministry these only apply to international NGOs. Kim said that before the law was introduced, civil society groups found it easier to participate in debates, and their views were taken more into account. Now we do not have close ties with parliament. While they may talk about their willingness to cooperate, their doors are closed, he said. Political scientist Parviz Mullojanov said important legislation should not be passed without consulting the public. Conducting [reviews] of public expertise is impossible without the active involvement of NGOs, and requires close cooperation between the civil sector and legislative bodies, he said. A member of the team which drafted the NGO legislation on NGOs told IWPR, on condition of anonymity, that the new regulations had been passed because NGOs were suspected to have played a role in popular revolts in Ukraine, Georgia and Kyrgyzstan, in which political leaderships were overthrown. Many international NGOs in different countries threaten the security of country, and we should take that into account, he said. NGOs such as Freedom House and the National Democratic Institute are the causes of many revolutions and disorders in the post-Soviet countries. Mullojanov said that following the March 2005 Kyrgyz revolution, in which the then president Askar Akaev was ousted after thousands took the streets in protest over the disputed result of an election, Tajik politicians concluded that NGOs played a part in mobilising the population. One clause in the NGO law requires all relevant groups to re-register by the end of the year. According to head of the registration department at the Tajik justice ministry, Davlat Sulaymonov, about 70 local and international NGOs have been re-registered already and about 20 more applications are being considered. Mullojanov predicts that the outcome will be a significant drop in the existing number of registered NGOs, put at over 3,000. Analysts predict that the proposals on religious law may have a similar effect, cutting the number of faith groups that enjoy legal recognition. Without registration, churches can be closed down and worshippers prevented from practising their religion in public. Under current laws, only ten signatures are needed to register a faith organisation. The new proposals would require a minimum of 20 members and 200 aspiring members. Not every group of worshippers in the country will be able to collect the number of signatures set out in the bill, said Aleksandr Vervay, who chairs the Union of Evangelical Baptist Christian Churches in Tajikistan. We have given our recommendations on this bill, and if this new law is to be adopted, we want it to take into account the concerns of religious organisations and to be widely discussed. Said Ahmedov, a former chairman of the governments committee on religious affairs, added that while the old law had some defects, at least it did not restrict the activities of religious groups. Nafisa Pisaredjeva is an IWPR contributor in Dushanbe. **** www.iwpr.net ******************************************************************** REPORTING CENTRAL ASIA provides the international community with a unique insiders' perspective on the region. Using our network of local journalists, the service publishes news and analysis from across Central Asia on a weekly basis. The service forms part of IWPR's Central Asia Project based in Almaty, Bishkek, Tashkent and London, which supports media development and encourages better local and international understanding of the region. IWPR's Reporting Central Asia is supported by the UK Community Fund. The service is published online in English and Russian. The opinions expressed in Reporting Central Asia are those of the authors and do not necessarily represent those of the publication or of IWPR. 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