WELCOME TO IWPR'S REPORTING CENTRAL ASIA, No. 585 Part 2, August 5, 2009 TURKMEN GOLDEN LAKE MAY PROVE GREEN DISASTER Desert reservoir will soak up water and money faster than any improvements it may bring, say Turkmen and Uzbek environmentalists. By IWPR staff in Central Asia
POVERTY TAJIKISTANS ONLY GROWTH AREA More than half the population are already classed as poor, and things look set to get worse as incomes and job opportunities are squeezed. By Sayrahmon Nazriev in Qurghonteppa and Aslibegim Manzarshoeva in Dushanbe **** NEW ************************************************************************************ 2009 KYRGYZ ELECTION UPDATES: http://iwpr.net/kyrgyzelection09 NEW VACANCIES AVAILABLE http://iwpr.net/vacancies BECOME A FAN OF IWPR ON FACEBOOK: http://iwpr.net/facebook FOLLOW US ON TWITTER at http://twitter.com/iwpr **** IWPR RESOURCES ****************************************************************** CENTRAL ASIA RADIO: http://iwpr.net/centralasiaradio CENTRAL ASIA PROGRAMME HOME: http://iwpr.net/centralasia IWPR COMMENT: http://iwpr.net/comment SAHAR JOURNALISTS ASSISTANCE FUND: http://iwpr.net/sahar **** www.iwpr.net ******************************************************************** REPORTING CENTRAL ASIA RSS: http://www.iwpr.net/en/rca/rss.xml RECEIVE FROM IWPR: Readers are urged to subscribe to IWPR's full range of free electronic publications at: http://iwpr.net/subscribe GIVE TO IWPR: IWPR is wholly dependent upon grants and donations. For more information about how you can support IWPR go to: http://iwpr.net/donate **** www.iwpr.net ******************************************************************** TURKMEN GOLDEN LAKE MAY PROVE GREEN DISASTER Desert reservoir will soak up water and money faster than any improvements it may bring, say Turkmen and Uzbek environmentalists. By IWPR staff in Central Asia The environmental costs of building a giant reservoir in the middle of the desert easily outweigh the benefits it will bring to Turkmenistans agricultural sector, experts say. In neighbouring parts of Uzbekistan, ecologists say the lake could prove the latest man-made disaster to hit the region, adding to the problems created by the drying up of the Aral Sea. On July 15, President Gurbanguly Berdymuhammedov opened the sluices to mark the formal launch of a reservoir dubbed Altyn Asyr, after the Golden Age which Turkmenistans people are officially enjoying. This grand project has been years in the making; construction began in 2000 under Berdymuhammedovs predecessor Saparmurat Niazov. Official reports on the reservoir have accentuated the benefits it will bring. One hundred kilometres long and 19 wide, the lake will be used to collect water drained off from agricultural lands. This will go through a process of desalination and purification so that it can then be re-used for irrigation. The Turkmen government hopes this massive recycling operation will save precious water and reduce the environmental cost of irrigated agriculture in a region with an arid climate. A lecturer at Turkmenistans University of Agriculture, who asked not to be named, says subsoil drainage created by years of irresponsible land management has become a huge problem, making farmland increasingly saline. At the moment, excess irrigation water in northeastern Turkmenistan as well as neighbouring parts of Uzbekistan accumulates in the naturally-formed Lake Sarykamysh on the two countries border. Elsewhere, the water contaminated with salt from the soil and pesticides goes into irrigation canals, into the ground, or back into the Amu Darya river which is the main waterway in this part of Central Asia. The Altyn Asyr reservoir is presented as the answer to all these ills preventing contaminated water from seeping back into the soil and waterways, and reducing overall use through recycling. Experts in Turkmenistan agree on the scale of the challenge, although many fear the artificial lake will create more problems than it resolves. Among their concerns are that as it collects in the lake, much of the water will simply sink into the desert sands beneath. Meanwhile, surface water will evaporate under the hot sun, concentrating the harmful chemicals in the remaining volume. Finally, as with the Aral Sea which lies north and east of the lake, areas around the expanse of water will dry and quickly turn into a dustbowl, from which the wind will spread poisonous chemical particles far and wide. The idea of collecting drainage water from all regions of the country and then using it in a rational way sounds promising in itself, but they [the authorities] should be completely open about the downside, said one Ashgabat-based analyst. The benefits of constructing the Turkmen lake are like ankle-high water, whereas the damage will be knee-high. A local environmentalist warns that the reservoir could share the fate of Lake Sarykamysh, which has filled up with agricultural chemical residue and become a stagnant, drying effluent pool. In time, the new Turkmen lake will turn into another time bomb, seriously aggravating an ecological situation that is already extremely problematic, he said. The old time bomb [Sarykamysh] is about to go off why plant a new one? A veteran water engineer from Dashoguz, the province where the lake is located, gave a vivid description of the possible outcome. Imagine a childrens sandpit, and a huge tanker truck begins pouring water into it, he said. The sandpit turns into a mass of wet sand. This is how the Kararakum [desert] will look in 30 or 40 years if drainage waters are collected there. An excavator driver working on the reservoir confirmed that the sandy terrain made a poor foundation. We keep digging out the bottom and removing the sand that constantly slips down, but more of it slides down again, he said. A retired economist agreed that sand was a major obstacle to making lasting structures. The sands of the Karakum desert are constantly on the move, which means that the two water-collection canals that have already been dug, with a combined length of 1,003 km, will fill up with sand, he said. Maintaining stability in the water flow and all of the lakes facilities is going to cost many billions in state subsidies. Other analysts, too, say the project is likely to consume never-ending amounts of money as well as water. To date, expenditure on constructing the water-collection canals and the lake itself has already run to substantial sums of money, several billion dollars, said the Dashoguz-based engineer. The Turkmen government has been reticent about giving precise numbers for project spending. In 2002, a figure of four billion dollars was cited, later rising to 6.5 billion. Now that so much money has been put into it, theres no going back, and construction work will be completed regardless of the cost, said an anonymous staff member at Turkmenistans ministry for water resources. Across the border in Uzbekistan, environmentalists in Khorezm region and the Karakalpakstan autonomous republic are looking on in horror. They are only too aware of the ecological catastrophe caused by the shrinking of the Aral Sea over recent decades, caused by over-use of the waters of the Amu Darya and Central Asias other great river, the Syr Darya. This was a direct result of intensive cotton production, a grand project of the Soviet era. An environmentalist from Karakalpakstan recalls the drought of 1999 and 2000, when the lower reaches of the Amu Darya all but disappeared leaving residents of this part of Uzbekistan without water. Every spring, I worry whether theres going to be water in Karakalpakstan and Khorezm; whether the irrigation canals will fill, so that people can raise their livestock and get some kind of harvest, she said. She is in little doubt that the Turkmen reservoir will make things worse. How can it be that a desert lake, where the water literally disappears into the sand, is more important than the lives of millions of people? she asked. This Turkmen sea can only be filled by rivers of tears from the residents of Karakalpakstan and Khorezm. It will be the Sea of Tears and Woe. Another Uzbek environmentalist, working on the Aral Sea problem, said there were grave concerns that far from restricting themselves to drainage from their own territory, the Turkmen authorities were quietly drawing off extra water from the Amu Darya to fill the reservoir. We dont trust the Turkmen, he said. Since independence [in 1991] theyve been taking more than the agreed volumes of water out of the Amu Darya. It would be possible to use satellite imagery to monitor the removal of fresh water from the Amu Darya via these collection canals. But no one is doing that. To the frustration of local ecological activists, the Uzbek authorities have not offered much opposition to their neighbours giant water project in stark contrast to their vocal hostility to hydroelectric dam projects upstream in Tajikistan and Kyrgyzstan. A scientist based in Karakalpakstan noted this contrast in behaviour, saying, The Academy of Sciences of Uzbekistan is playing along with the Turkmen, even conducting joint studies of water resources in the Amu Darya basin. I dont know what all this is for. Our people are demanding an international ecological feasibility study of plans to build dams in Tajikistan and Kyrgyzstan, yet Tashkent isnt demanding the same thing for the Turkmen lake. The environmentalist from Karakalpakstan added, Uzbekistan depends on the waters of the Amu Darya but its unable to interfere in the internal affairs of its neighbour and tell it what to do. She concluded, I think that after so many years of misunderstanding. it is important that both countries finally sit down at the negotiating table, with other neighbours and international arbitrators also present, and solve this problem once and for all. (The names of interviewees in both Turkmenistan and Uzbekistan have been withheld out of concern for their security.) POVERTY TAJIKISTANS ONLY GROWTH AREA More than half the population are already classed as poor, and things look set to get worse as incomes and job opportunities are squeezed. By Sayrahmon Nazriev in Qurghonteppa and Aslibegim Manzarshoeva in Dushanbe As government figures confirm that the global economic downturn is having major effects on Tajikistan, experts warn that more and more households in Central Asias poorest country will be driven into poverty. Aside from collapsing production and exports, the decline in money sent home by migrants working abroad will deprive families of a key income source. Tajikistans statistical agency reports that the economy grew by 2.8 per cent year on year in the first six months of 2009, half the rate seen in the same period of 2008. Industrial production fell by 13 per cent, and export revenues were 48 per cent down, a reflection of low world prices and lack of demand for aluminium and cotton, Tajikistans key export commodities. Nuriddin Kayumov, director of Tajikistans Institute of Economic Studies, said that as of June, one-third of all industrial plants and factories across the country were at a standstill. Many directors are complaining that they cant sell their products and they are being forced to send their workers on unpaid leave, he added. The slump has slashed tax revenues, so that even the modest expenditure levels the government envisages after scaling down its budget earlier this year may not be achievable. (See Faint Praise for Tajik Crisis Plan, RCA No. 575, 01-May-09.) Tajik president Imomali Rahmon warned as much on a visit to the southern Khatlon region last month, when he criticised the provincial government for its low tax collection rates and expressed concern that public-sector wages and pensions were not being paid on time. Delays on wages and pensions are already occurring, and appear to be worse in rural areas. The state owes pensioners in our village two months in back-payments and when you get it, its only for one month, said 75-year-old Zaynab from Bokhtar in southern Tajikistan. Zaynab said that even when she got her pension, worth around 13 US dollars a month, it was not enough to buy a sack of flour, just a bit of flour and some oil. Aside from conventional economic activities like agriculture and industry, one of Tajikistans main sources of income in recent years has been money remittances from the estimated 1.5 million migrants working abroad, mainly in Russia and also Kazakstan. These funds keep families afloat and contribute to economic growth between 30 and 50 per cent of Tajikistans gross domestic product, according to various estimates by paying for goods and services on the domestic market. Citing World Bank figures, the Tajik economy ministry reports that recorded remittances that is, money transferred through the banks rather than being carried home in cash stood at 525 million dollars in the period January-May, a 34 per cent drop on the same period of 2008. Sangchagul Jononova from Bokhtar district described how the income of her 15-member family was slashed after two of her three sons returned from Russia after losing their jobs. She used to receive a total of 300 dollars from them, but the two now at home are earning much less one gets 45 dollars a month working on a building site and the other far less than that as a farmhand. We dont have enough money for food, let alone clothes and shoes, she told IWPR. The new school year starts soon, and I dont know how Im going to send the children to school . The only things we can afford now are bread and tea, sometimes with sugar. Over the summer, Jononova has supplemented her familys diet with fruit and vegetables from her garden, but this will end when winter comes. Like many returning migrants and their families, Jononova can only hope the crisis in Russia will end soon so her sons can go back there. (For more on this issue, see our recent report Tajikistan: No Jobs for Returning Migrants, RCA No. 583, 12-Jul-09.) Analysts warn that the multiple effects of the crisis falling remittances, job losses at factories, and small business closures as consumers spend less will inevitably force more and more people below the bread line, at a time when the government is struggling to pay wages and benefits. Prior to the crisis, the World Bank calculated that 54 per cent of Tajikistans population were living on less than two dollars a day, its benchmark figure for assessing poverty. Hojimahmad Umarov, a professor at the Institute for Economic Studies, says that figure has now risen to 60 per cent. Meanwhile, he says, 15 per cent of people in Tajikistan are living on less than one dollar a day. These are families that cannot rely on members working abroad as labour migrants. Most of them live in Khatlon and in Badakhshan, he said. Najiba Shirinbekova, who heads a non-government group called Law and Prosperity, notes that the north of Tajikistan, traditionally better off than other parts of the country, is also being hit. The latest information indicates a particularly high level of poverty in the ostensibly wealthy, industrially developed Soghd region. This is because factories are standing idle because of the financial crisis and the winter energy crisis, she said. Larisa, a 59-year-old resident of the capital Dushanbe, typifies the kind of people who still have jobs but have few other resources to prevent them sliding into poverty. Living on her own, she earns about 30 dollars a month placing her in Umarovs bottom 15 per cent. Her wage has to cover food, household utilities and travel to and from work. I havent bought myself any clothes probably for three years. Ive forgotten what meat, sausages, cheese and cream taste like. I buy small amounts on holidays, and sometimes neighbours invite me over for a meal, she said. Although the inflation rate is lower this year than last, prices in the shops are still rising enough to cut into Larisas purchasing power. At her age, not in the best of health, she cannot take on a second job to top up her income. If it gets very difficult, I will have to turn to my children for help and hope they wont leave me to fend for myself, said Larisa, whose children have emigrated to Russia. People further up the income rung, for example shopkeepers and market traders, are also seeing their earnings eaten away. Since most of their customers money was sent by relatives abroad rather than earned in Tajikistan, the decline in remittances has led to shops closing and a slowdown in trading at the traditional open-air bazaars. People are trying to buy only the most essential items, said a Dushanbe businessman who gave his first name as Aknazar. Selling foodstuffs wholesale to other parts in the country, Aknazar reckons he is turning over less than a third of what he would have been making before the crisis. Previously, I was supplying beer and chicken to the Pamirs [Badakhshan region], but now some of my regular customers come only once every three months. The prices of many goods have increased including sugar and cooking oil and the same thing is happening to flour. Mavzuna, who works in a womens clothes store in Dushanbes Sadbarg shopping centre, said, Trade has practically died out, we dont know how to pay the rent, which the owners have increased. Shop assistants like Mavzuna find themselves under increasing pressure to make money. We are told to deliver 22 dollars worth of sales on a daily basis, but how can we achieve that? At the moment we arent reaching that sales target in the course of a week. Sayrahmon Nazriev and Aslibegim Manzarshoeva are IWPR-trained journalists in Tajikistan. **** www.iwpr.net ******************************************************************** REPORTING CENTRAL ASIA provides the international community with a unique insiders' perspective on the region. Using our network of local journalists, the service publishes news and analysis from across Central Asia on a weekly basis. 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